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Zach's Log
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Zach's Log

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Newport, Maine
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Favorite Futures: MES, MNQ
 
Zachary Standley's Avatar
 
Posts: 130 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 157 given, 229 received

Zach's Log

My principles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sUKoKQlEC4 - "The Death Crawl scene from Facing The Giants"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf0Gqbs_cfw - "Alan Watts ~ The Reason You Suffer"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdJwHx-QofA&t=1s - "This Graph Changed My Life" by Andrew Kirby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5897dMWJiSM - "Marcus Aurelius-Best Lecture on Stoicism EVER! (full Virtual University lesson)"

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Last edited by Zachary Standley; May 5th, 2019 at 11:19 AM. Reason: very influential videos
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  #3 (permalink)
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Newport, Maine
 
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Favorite Futures: MES, MNQ
 
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Posts: 130 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 157 given, 229 received


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Got up at 8am, which is too late for me. Took 9.5 grams of kratom and watched some YouTube videos- as usual. Opened up NinjaTrader, got connected to the live feed, and immediately went to analyzing the charts in consecutive order: from weekly, down to the 500 tick chart. If you're wondering which charts I look at exactly, I check out the weekly, daily, hourly, 15 minute, 10,000 tick and 500 tick chart. I look for alignment especially between the daily, hourly, and 15 minute chart- on days that there's that kind of synchonicity, is when I'm most successful. I use the 500 tick chart for entry.

My first impression of the ES is that price was going down. The reasoning behind my initial stance was that the ES was starting to consolidate and/or go through a range from my perspective of the daily chart. So I plotted support and resistance lines and an entry line, preparing for bearish behavior. In the end, I had set 5 plans in total. As price moved, most plans of entry became invalidated because price wasn't moving in a way that I implicitly know to be associated with higher probability trades. I consciously "keep up" with price, and I always pay attention to volume and volatility. I had placed 3 sets of condition lines before 9:30am, and generated 2 plans on-the-go after 9:30am (after volatility ramped up), after I realized the market wasn't going to do exactly what I thought it was going to do. I went between thinking the market was going to go down, to thinking that price had a higher possibility of going up, back to thinking she was going down. More often then not, my first take is correct- it's the steps after entry, that screw me in the long-term, as you'll see.

After the ES failed to go full-on bull, and after some confirmation that she was going down, I placed a newly identified support and resistance line around 2640. I placed my entry line 2 points up above, to get an early entry on the short. Some time passed, I entered. The entry point seemed inconspicuous enough, and because I thought it was a strange place to enter (it was a great spot to enter) I felt kind of "insecure" about the trade. I overrode this paranoid ideation and reaffirmed to myself my rules: You're not allowed to manually close a trade. So I messed around on YouTube for 10 minutes. I didn't hear "STOP FILLED" which was great. I looked back at the chart and I was $100 in the green. I didn't like the range price seemed to be going in, so I impulsively got out. My profit target was so far away, and I rationalized to myself that my profit target (~2632) was "unrealistic". It turns out it wasn't realistic, and if I had waited longer, I would've gained around $550. Anyways, +$95.74 for the day.

What I did correctly according to my strategy:
- Categorized and summed sentiment of each important and popular chart. Checked for alignment.
- Created multiple plans of entry. Constantly evaluated validity and relationship of each plan to price action. Didn't throw the baby out with the bath water and didn't eat burnt toast. I was flexible (in this respect).
- I entered at a place that I normally wouldn't have. As mentioned earlier, I feel or think as if a relatively "inconspicuous" spot MIGHT be a great place to enter. Context matters, though.
- I was paying very close attention to price action. I was on it. I did mental price narration and imagined and considered the general implications of ever developing data. This could be a bunch of bullshit, but it's working for me- as long as I control myself.
- I didn't hesitate upon entry. Doesn't seem to be much of a problem anymore.

What I did incorrectly according to my strategy:
- I didn't let the trade develop long enough. I gave into paranoia of losing money, and acted on impulse. Totally unacceptable. I rationalized and deviated from my plan.

Why did I do that foolish thing?: I haven't yet firmly established what I'm going to do if price goes against me while I'm in the green. I did have a thought last week, that if market sentiment dramatically changes while I'm in the green (let's say around $200) and goes back to around my entry line, I'll just jump in and close the trade manually when I hit the +$50 mark. Yeah- I'll do that from now on.

Main lesson: I must let my trades develop. I must trust in my own judgment. That's all I have to do at this point. It seems to be more agonizing to leave money on the table than to lose money because I know better. Possible implementation: Physically get away from the computer after entering a trade. Wait 15 minutes, then look back at the charts. I feel that I'm so close to profitability, as long as I can keep learning from my mistakes (let my trades develop) and practice the same behavior over and over again. I'm almost there.

Acc. balance: $4388.18 (initial balance: $5000)

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Zach's Log-2019-01-23-1-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-23.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-23-2-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-23-3-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-23-4-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-22-12-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-23-6-.png  

Last edited by Zachary Standley; January 23rd, 2019 at 02:39 PM.
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  #4 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Niles, Michigan
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 70 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 83 given, 104 received

I know the feeling of getting antsy once your trade gets deep into the green. Once my trade gets to a 1:1 (My risk is now equal to my current unrealized profit) I move my stop to breakeven. Then if things really get going in my direction, I begin aggressively trailing with the stop. Just an idea.


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  #5 (permalink)
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I'm not sure how to move my stop during a live trade, and I've never used a trailing stop. I'll look into how to do it right now.. Lmao. Thanks.

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  #6 (permalink)
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What a stressful trading day.. Woke up a little after 7am and went through my normal routine, except, instead of waiting until 9am to check the ES, I decided to get a headstart on my planning. At first glance, the market was up in the air as far as I was concerned. I thought it could've gone in either direction- the daily chart was going through a range- and the alignment that I identified wasn't convincing enough for me to take a stance; so my first interpretation was, "it's one of those days".. It's in a range. I imagined the possibilities of price and I thought it was more likely for the ES to go down (I determined this after some time had passed and through deeper analysis of the daily and 60 min. chart), so I plotted support/resistance and entry lines accordingly. I had to prepare for the alternative situation, so I did- but I wasn't so convinced that the ES was going to go up. I was wrong.

9:30am struck. Price went sideways for 6 minutes, then went down for 4 minutes. Price then reversed to the upside and around 9:41am price surged! The market was bullishly taking off in the 500 tick chart. If I were to enter the market in a bullish position, I wasn't going to enter anytime soon. Even my closest bullish entry condition line was far away, and I still wasn't convinced that the ES was going to go "too much" higher. I waited and watched as price climbed up (over the course of around an hour, maybe less), as it consolidated, then it climbed up just a little bit, then went into a range. I was hitting myself for not being fast enough of coming up with a plan to get in on the bullish action. At this point, I was preparing for price to break resistance and make newer highs. Some time passed and the market was slowing down (hesitation or loss of momentum from the bulls), so I started thinking and feeling that the bull run is over, and I felt kind of relieved.. I was chasing, mentally.

The ES was full of opportunity. There was no reason I couldn't put on a trade (my reasoning at the time), I found myself overthinking like I used to when I first started. Paralysis from analysis sort of thing. I was sort of imposing myself on the market, and I was expecting too much of myself, like I had to make a trade. I realized this tension so I took a breather, took a step back, and did a top to bottom re-analysis of all my charts. I abandoned all of my plans (only had 3) I created this morning because price wasn't close enough to all entry points, and they just seemed wrong. I deleted the support and resistance lines, deleted the entry lines. Fresh perspective. I reinterpreted support and resistance and sought out better entries. I set up 2 plans- 1 bearish, and 1 bullish. Condition lines placed.

Price eventually started flirting with the bears. I could sense it. I was happy to see price drop down some, and after a little bit more time, it dropped down to around my entry target. I confirmed to myself right before the trade if it was still reasonable (is this a high probability trade?) to enter by looking at all the charts once again, and they all complimented each other, giving me enough confidence and conviction to press sell as price finally crossed the line. I entered. After entry, I got that feeling I used to get after I entered a bad trade. Instant regret. I was conflicted, because logically it all added up. To my trading system, this was a higher probability trade. Emotionally, it wasn't. Confusion.

I immediately stepped away from my computer and went to the bathroom, came back and I was a point in the red. Walked away again, took care of some dishes, came back, and I was even further in the red. I KNEW I was going to get stopped out. There was no denying it, I felt strongly about it. Despite this, I didn't break my rule that I can't manually close trades. The "punishment" of entering a shitty set-up is getting stopped out. Anyways.. I was 2-3 ticks away from getting stopped out ($200 loss) before the market completely reversed in my favor. I was in disbelief- how perfect? This is my reward for not manually closing!: the non-logical part of my brain said. Price continued to the downside and eventually I was $250+ in the green. I was stubborn and proud so I was going to hold it longer. My profit target was around $400 and based around the chart- I considered it likely that price would continue even further. Instead, she oscillated 3 times, and out of stress and mental fatigue I closed the position with a $83.24 gain. I held the damn position for 40 minutes. The market did end up reversing to the upside and I would've been stopped out. By the way- I implemented a breakeven stop loss strategy- so I wouldn't have lost anything. (Thanks spetscom)

What I did correctly according to my strategy:
- Categorized each chart as bullish or bearish in their current state and most likely direction. As time passed, I kept updating each charts present and most probable status. Waited for alignment.
- I created multiple plans. I replaced them with more relevant plans as time passed.
- I wrote down what price action was doing as I was watching so I could possibly get a better idea of price direction through organizing the market behavior semantically. Ex: "weak bear presence at 10:42am". I was attentive.
- Immediately walked away from my computer so I wouldn't be tempted to close. I stayed away for quite some time; longer than usual. I didn't let myself close the position.
- Even while in the green I didn't close the position (at least, soon), remembering that I need to make more than I'm losing. I was patient, and especially disciplined in this regard- especially compared to how I used to be.
- Took a step back after over-analyzing.

What I did wrong according to my strategy:
- (more mental/psychological): I put too much pressure on myself to enter a trade today. I saw the market take off without me and I thought that I should know better than to just sit and watch. I was too critical of myself, and because of that, I chased.
- I got a little too stressed out. May have been the caffiene this morning.
- Technically, I didn't do anything wrong. Mentally, I could do better.

Lesson: You never know what's going to happen next. You don't know if you're going to get stopped out or not so don't let your emotions or your negative outlook effect the logistics of your plan. Stick to the plan.

Acc. balance: $4471.42

Attached Thumbnails
Zach's Log-2019-01-24-4-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-24-3-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-24-5-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-24-2-.png  
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  #7 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Niles, Michigan
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 70 since Sep 2018
Thanks: 83 given, 104 received

Nice job with the breakeven stop. It was quite the choppy market today. The action was too crazy and snappy for my account size to deal with, plus i believe it is important to realize when you lose the most. Choppy markets annihilate me, so I feel completely fine taking the day off and protecting capital.

I donít want to preach at you, but I feel like me and you have a lot in common from what I read. Being up 5 points in the ES is equal to being up 50 ticks in the NQ, at that point, consider aggressive trailing, and use your own discretion. By that I mean, itís very important to follow your rules as a trader, but once you start getting more experience and more comfortable, I believe it is also important to know when to Break a rule. Not a risk rule, but for example, this morning I saw the NQ preparing to rip up against my short position and annihilate me. I broke a rule and made the decision to close it out prematurely, and within the next minute it ripped up 15 points and I woulda ate a loss.

Itís very easy for people on forums to come off as preachy, and I donít wanna come off that way, I just want to offer you up some New/different ideas.


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  #8 (permalink)
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Thanks: 157 given, 229 received

I don't misinterpret your advice for preaching. You've been nothing but helpful with your responses, and I greatly appreciate it. I welcome even more feedback and feel free to respond however you see fit.

As for the break-a-rule thing, I get your point. Looking back on todays trade I actually did break a rule (didn't realize this when typing the log); I closed before the breakeven stop because it seemed obvious that the market was going to continue going up and I had enough of the ups and downs for the day. I remember yesterday, I wrote that if I'm ever in the situation where I'm deep in the green, and price reverses way back, I'd get out at +$50. I got out at $87.50 today. It definitely seemed like the right thing to do, I made the decision with decent judgment given the state of the market.. Had I been more experienced, I probably would've gotten out at +$250. I'll get there.

Thank you.

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  #9 (permalink)
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My initial thought on what the ES was going to do (~9am: I anticipated price to cross the top line):
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What the ES did (by 12pm):
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Had there been more volume and volatility, it would've been more likely for price to reach new highs (that's what I was waiting for). I started seriously watching price action around 9:30am, when things usually take off, but there wasn't much to behold. I patiently waited for price to pick up some, for volatility to increase, and there were some moments when it did- but nothing I wanted to work with/nothing promising. It sucks too, because all of the important charts were aligned and had this been a really active day in the market, this could've been a big and bullish green day. I waited and watched for a couple hours until 11am before I called it quits. I don't like trading on slow days like this when there's a lot of hesitation in price, meaning no follow through; no conviction or decisiveness from people. Price tested the 2670 area multiple times and failed. She didn't want to go down by much either. The ES was/is in a range, for now. No trades for the day, and I usually don't trade outside of 9am-12am. If I see increased volatility and alignment later around 2pm, I may enter. We'll see, it all depends.

What I did correctly according to my strategy:
- Looked for alignment between charts, as usual. Created two plans.
- Considered the implications of lower volume and volatility. Realized it wasn't a great day to trade, as there was no follow-through and a lot of hesitation.
- (psychological): Was patient and disciplined, overall.

What I did incorrectly according to my strategy:
- Nada. I followed my rules and was intrapersonally stable, as far as I can tell.

Lesson: Don't trade slow markets (are all fridays like this?). There were times when I thought it was acceptable to enter, but every move to the upside was nullified by stagnation of price, followed by a micro reversal. Show restraint when things logically don't add up.

Acc. balance: $4471.42

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Posts: 130 since Sep 2018
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Bad trading day. Woke up at 5:30am this morning to mess around. I took a hefty dose of kratom and watched some YouTube videos on living in China, just out of curiosity and interest. During this time, I also looked at the ES and created 3 general plans (meaning, not set in stone and not specific); 2 bullish and 1 bearish. I really had no inclination as to what the market was going to do later today. The kratom kicked in and I realized I took too much as I was getting very tired, so I went back to sleep around 6:45-7am. I woke up an hour and a half later at 8:30am, and that's when I made my coffee and ate breakfast. I went back to watching those videos, neglecting what was happening in the ES.

I was watching those videos right through 9am until 2 minutes before the open. I clicked on my platforms thumbnail, and when my charts, SuperDOM, level 2 and time and sales popped up, I realized there was absolutely no movement at all. I was like, what the hell? It's a monday and as far as I know, it's not a holiday. So I disconnected from the live feed, and tried to reconnect but the program didn't respond. I exitted NinjaTrader and was eager and slightly irritated because I realized that this problem was on my end. This has never happened to me before. Once I re-opened the program and connected to the live feed, everything was back to normal. Volatility in the ES was high, level 2 and everything else was moving fast (as in the colors and numbers were constantly changing). I was even more irritated when I realized that I had missed an opportunity to the downside that one of my plans accounted for, because I was distracted and being lazy.. Not a great start.

I re-analyzed all relevant charts (daily, 60 min., 15 min., etc.) to check the extent of alignment and to see the general direction of the market, to then come up with a new gameplan. It was still looking pretty bearish, and given that it was only around 9:40am, I thought the ES still had potential to go even further down. All of the plans I made around 6am this morning became irrelevant, so I had to make new ones to account for the price moves I missed while watching YouTube videos. I felt like such an idiot. I re-established/identified a new support and resistance and placed an entry target two points up from it, so I could get an early entrance on a possible big move.

I looked at the net change in level 2. It was under -30.00 points. I remembered then, that the average move before a reversal in the ES is around 31 points (in the past couple of months, at least).. Given the volume and volatility, and maybe because I was chasing (this could be debated) I decided that it was still a good idea to go short. Price was approaching my entry line. It tested it 2 times and was in a small range. Volatility was still high- in fact, 10am struck, and it increased a little bit more. I waited for signs of a bearish breakout. 4-5 minutes after 10am, price surged to the downside, and that's when I impulsively entered. I remember thinking, last time I entered immediately after a surge like this, I got stopped out soon after. I ignored that thought and stuck to my rule of not manually closing a trade. I walked away and attended to some things for 5 minutes or so, then I came back to see that I was stopped out with a $204.26 loss. What did I do wrong?

What I did wrong:
- I broke my routine by getting up early to take too much kratom and to "have fun". I was groggy after I woke up at 8:30am so I made some coffee, and guess what- I think I drank too much of that, too, because I felt amped and I felt less mentally present and more anxious.
- I was distracted by YouTube videos and wasn't paying attention to the ES or my platform up until it was too late- I had missed the opportunity. I chased, thinking there was still a chance for the ES to drop some more.

To conclude about the things that I did wrong, I think the biggest factor that screwed me today (is me) is that I was on auto-pilot. I didn't have true presence of mind, I wasn't being entirely logical. I was half-assing. It's on days like this when I tend to lose money- it's on days when I go against my routine, when I over-consume and do things I know I shouldn't, that my discipline breaks and this negligence carries over into my trading and affects my judgment. I wasn't focused and I didn't have my head straight, it was a poor decision of me to enter the market at all.

Lesson: Don't overindulge, manage bad habits, and don't let anything interfere with your trading. Don't let yourself get distracted, and if you are distracted or don't feel like trading, DON'T. You will regret trading when you're not up to snuff. You need to be fully present/conscious to trade properly and to reap green.
Technical lesson (for me, maybe you): Don't enter after a surging candle. Wait to see what happens next.

Solution: Don't wake up before 7am. Lower kratom dosage and caffeine consumption in the morning, and get the YouTube videos out of the way. I'll make up for this misconduct today by doing the right things tomorrow (and the rest of the day, today)- win or loss.

Acc. balance: $4267.17

Attached Thumbnails
Zach's Log-2019-01-28-2-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-28-3-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-28-4-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-28-5-.png   Zach's Log-2019-01-28-1-.png  
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