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Zach's Log

  #211 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
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Zachary Standley View Post
If you think this is a good idea, or an absolutely terrible one, let me know. I'm willing to take the risk, and I think it would be a good experience, regardless of the outcome.

I think it's a risky idea, and also a good one. How's that?

The micros make the risk different. Your 2-point loss comes to $10 per contract, not $100 as in ES. Your commissions are actually going to be a factor in a greater way than they are in ES.

It's good that you don't need that money to survive, because the odds are fairly decent that you will lose it, or a chunk of it -- not a reflection on your trading skill or method, just on the fact that live is different.

I know you understand the difference, but you did ask....

I totally agree with @Blash on this.

Bob.

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  #212 (permalink)
 
Salao's Avatar
 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation
Trading: GC/MGC, MCL, MES
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bobwest View Post
I think it's a risky idea, and also a good one. How's that?

The micros make the risk different. Your 2-point loss comes to $10 per contract, not $100 as in ES. Your commissions are actually going to be a factor in a greater way than they are in ES.

It's good that you don't need that money to survive, because the odds are fairly decent that you will lose it, or a chunk of it -- not a reflection on your trading skill or method, just on the fact that live is different.

I know you understand the difference, but you did ask....

I totally agree with @Blash on this.

Bob.

X3! I think the 2 prior posts pretty much give you the straight dope. I just wanted to chime in for support and well wishing! (Not completely sure 'well-wishing' is a thing, but I think the sentiment is clear...good luck!)

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  #213 (permalink)
 
mtzimmer1's Avatar
 mtzimmer1 
Upstate NY
Recovering Method Hopper
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS
Broker: TD Ameritrade
Trading: Equities, Treasuries, Gold
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Zachary Standley View Post
No day trades today. The ES/MES is currently in a weird position, and I can't tell if we're bullish or bearish in the daily chart. Because of this, I closed my swing trade that I put on yesterday for a relatively minuscule 3.25 point gain. Nothing special!



As for my day trading as a whole, I find myself gravitating more and more to wanting to trade live already. I do have ~$442 just sitting in my live account that I don't need to survive, so I'm really debating just jumping in with my current strategy to challenge myself / to be involved. I thought about it earlier, and even though I definitely take SIM seriously, trading live is more engaging, because it's real risk and real reward! I suppose I'm getting a bit impatient because I've been in SIM so long. Maybe the prospect of trading real money will "bring my trading to life?" I don't know, all I know is, I want to trade live!



I would be risking relatively a lot of capital per trade: right off the bat, if I were to use a 2 point stop loss with this $442 account in the MES, and I lost the first trade- that's a 2.27% loss. On the flip side, I'd aim for 2:1 to 3:1, depending on what the market tells me. All around, it's risky, but the idea of doing so is strongly appealing: because of the personal challenge, and because it's real, and not to mention the potential reward- could you imagine successfully growing an account this small?.. Trust me, I'm not banking on it, and I know it's unlikely. Also, I suppose trading live with this account would add an extra element of seriousness to my approach to trading, and I would have to be extremely selective, and on the ball with my trades.



If you think this is a good idea, or an absolutely terrible one, let me know. I'm willing to take the risk, and I think it would be a good experience, regardless of the outcome.



What is your commission structure? My brokers micro commission is a deal breaker for me.

Personally I wouldn’t feel confident trading 1 ES contract with a $4420 account and as such wouldn’t feel confident trading 1 MES with $442. 1% risk on each trade still feels rich for my blood and 2%+ seems unfathomable.

If you know the quantitative value of your edge, you could run a Monte Carlo simulation with 2.27% risk per trade and find out what the “risk of ruin” is.


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  #214 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
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https://ninjatrader.com/PDF/ninjatrader_futures_commissions.pdf

I have the NT8 Lifetime license, my commissions are cheap.

I do not know the quantitative value of my edge, and I don't need to know it to know that my risk of ruin is high. This has less to do with the money than it does with getting exposed to real risk.

I start live trading tomorrow! I'll be using the same strategy that I've been using in SIM, except my entries and stops will have to be immaculate, given my size (I suppose they should've been or should be all-along). I'll be putting a lot of emphasis on good trade location, once again- no impulsive breakout trades. I'll be picking my shots wisely. This is going to be quite a challenge, but I really look forward to it. I'll be sure to document it all here!

Thank all of you guys.

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  #215 (permalink)
 
mtzimmer1's Avatar
 mtzimmer1 
Upstate NY
Recovering Method Hopper
 
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Zachary Standley View Post
https://ninjatrader.com/PDF/ninjatrader_futures_commissions.pdf



I have the NT8 Lifetime license, my commissions are cheap.



I do not know the quantitative value of my edge, and I don't need to know it to know that my risk of ruin is high. This has less to do with the money than it does with getting exposed to real risk.



I start live trading tomorrow! I'll be using the same strategy that I've been using in SIM, except my entries and stops will have to be immaculate, given my size (I suppose they should've been or should be all-along). I'll be putting a lot of emphasis on good trade location, once again- no impulsive breakout trades. I'll be picking my shots wisely. This is going to be quite a challenge, but I really look forward to it. I'll be sure to document it all here!



Thank all of you guys.



All the best Zach! You’ve got this!

Those commissions are incredibly cheap, wow.


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  #216 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
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mtzimmer1 View Post
All the best Zach! You’ve got this!

Those commissions are incredibly cheap, wow.


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I know!

I'll do my absolute best. Thank you.

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  #217 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
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Don't mind my scratchy hand-writing!.. and tilt your head.

I'll start uploading my plan (thesis) and ideas for the day before I start trading. Doing so will add a layer of accountability to my actions. That way, I'll stay in-sync with my pre-open ideas and not deviate from them at all.

As for today's plan- what was written pretty much encompasses where my head is at for the trading day. Very simple stuff. There is an opportunity from a purely technical point of view, but the arrangement of price makes an entry complicated, especially with my stop size. I'm waiting for the open to tell me what the best course of action is on my part.

Approximate potential entry zone:


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  #218 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
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So the technical picture I wanted to see did play out/is kind of playing out, but the market has poor characteristics: The open was relatively weak. Poor volume and volatility right off the bat that gradually declined into the state it's in now. When price reached the mid 2930's and the bulls came in, there was too much hesitation and idleness for me to want to enter. The one event of viable follow-through that there was, was a slow downtick roll after a 3 tick-sudden drop at ~9:46 from open prices. Not worth the risk, I need more action than this to make "One Good Trade."

No trades today- but all in all, in my dictionary, I acted as professionally as I can. I'll act the same way this coming Monday, which I really look forward to.

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  #219 (permalink)
 
Blash's Avatar
 Blash 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Market Chamois
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS
Broker: InteractiveBrokers, S5T, IQFeed
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
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Zachary Standley View Post
Attachment 267297

So the technical picture I wanted to see did play out/is kind of playing out, but the market has poor characteristics: The open was relatively weak. Poor volume and volatility right off the bat that gradually declined into the state it's in now. When price reached the mid 2930's and the bulls came in, there was too much hesitation and idleness for me to want to enter. The one event of viable follow-through that there was, was a slow downtick roll after a 3 tick-sudden drop at ~9:46 from open prices. Not worth the risk, I need more action than this to make "One Good Trade."

No trades today- but all in all, in my dictionary, I acted as professionally as I can. I'll act the same way this coming Monday, which I really look forward to.

IMHO market is waiting to hear/see from G20 over in Japan here are some details about it I posted. If something big, some big news comes out/leaks out the market might have a big reaction. Seems to me many are sitting on their hands too...me included. .....

Ron

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #220 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
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Blash View Post
IMHO market is waiting to hear/see from G20 over in Japan here are some details about it I posted. If something big, some big news comes out/leaks out the market might have a big reaction. Seems to me many are sitting on their hands too...me included. .....

Ron

I might need to start paying attention to these kind of events / big news, because there was a reaction to that news, and it completed my technical picture (in other words, I could've traded today!). Is there any specific source you recommend?

On a side note, I invested $500 into Chainlink today. I might invest more. Look into it if you aren't aware of what's going on!

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Last Updated on December 31, 2019


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