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1. Re-adjust LVN and HVN regions in the daily chart if necessary. Don't create any plans on what you think that market could do; simply identify and plot areas price could react to. = Y
2. Write down relevant news release times. = Y
3. Practice execution and holding trades in SIM. Practice both trend and range plays. = N
5. Meditate for at least 10 minutes before the open. = Y
Daily Goals:
1. I made a trading decision after deliberately identifying dominant strength, dominant weakness, or range-bound conditions within the first 15-20 minutes of the cash open. = Y
3. If today was range-bound, I took at least 1 trade that was appropriate for the conditions. I applied and executed my trading range strategy. = N, just watched the market.
4. If I took a trade today, I was patient and waited for the best price. I didn't execute too early and/or before Areas of Interest. = -
5. If I took a trade today, I let my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did not interfere with the trade(s). = -
Did I make any mistakes today? If so, what did I do wrong, and why? (specify): Practicing trades in SIM has fallen off the radar. Honestly- it feels pointless, especially with using limit orders. However, practicing execution with live market data (I was using simulated data..) would be much more compelling, so I may try that out tomorrow before putting on a real trade (if I take one).
Possible actionable solution(s) for the mistake for future reference: ^^^
Do I continually make this mistake?
Additional notes: The market makes a lot more sense when I don't have the intention of placing a trade. Today, like yesterday and Monday, I was just watching and listening to the market, and I was able to make great calls (mental trades) from truly observing/paying attention.. I want to always view the market as I did today; objectively, while seeking continuity between different timeframes and confluence between volume profile and the OHLC, market profile, VWAP, etc. You're damn right I'm making "this" a habit!.. I may sound like a broken record from now on about this, just to instill it.
As for my study of the MES, I went all the way back to May 6, 2019 (first day) to now and gathered data on each days range of price, each days volume, each days volume profile value area range, and each days point distance between the first candles open and the last candles close- all of this from the first two hours of every RTH session. I triple checked all numbers so there wouldn't be any mistakes (I have OCD when it comes to data collecting), so it all took me awhile.. I may go over what I've learned so far in an upcoming post, but for now, I still have more studying to do; I'm particularly interested in the "tells" of a trend day. For example, I've been suspecting that the higher the volume of the first 5 minute candle of the cash open, the more likely it is to be a trend day. I'd like to confirm this suspicion.
Awesome and productive day.. and no trades taken.
Just wanted to add this tidbit here.. I wish I would've known this sooner, but there are excellent trading resources (traders) on twitter. You just have to know who to follow and WHEN to listen to them.. One trader in particular gave very great advice on volume profile today that I saved, and he took the liberty to disclose he made 40 points in the ES on a day like this. Man, what I'd give to be on that level. My point is, there is great information out there that new and old traders are often discouraged from attaining (just do your own thing, follow your own strategy, don't listen to or watch the news).. While I agree with this to some extent, it's common sense that you should listen to someone who evidently knows what they're doing.. This can be such a lonely business, and there's no need for it. Gather as much information as possible, and follow traders who do well. You know that saying "Knowledge is power?"..
I didn't update my journal yesterday because I was busy! But, just so you know, I continued to watch the market as I have been all week. No trades yesterday or today. Generally speaking, right now I'm more focused on reading the orderflow and gathering stats.. Also, today I looked at my goals and journal structure and thought "this could be better and more specific." So I wrote this:
The Goal: To become a Consistently Profitable Trader by accomplishing my intermediate goals.
Intermediate goals:
1. To become regularly meticulous during market analysis; to never miss a detail.
2. To become exceptional at reading the footprint and DOM.
3. To only make trading decisions based on major confluence and/or trading statistics.
4. To become calm in the face of every opportunity.
5. To walk away after every single entry.
How will I achieve my intermediate goals?:
1. By spending more time analyzing the market before the cash open; by filling out a pre-made analysis template to efficiently collect information.
2. By spending more time reading the footprint and DOM each and every day, and by screen recording my sessions to review market moves later before sleeping.
3. By going into the session with the intention of simply observing the market (not with the intention to trade), and by having a wealth of statistics to recall from and criteria in place in order for me to take a confluence based trade.
4. By using either an HRV or heart rate monitor while trading to become aware of when I'm getting stressed out so that I can mindfully calm myself down.
5. Using my legs.. And using thoughts of regret as a warning (this one should be easy compared to the rest).
Why are these my intermediate goals?:
1. My lack of attention to detail during my pre-open analysis has costed me in the past. This week, I put a lot of time and effort into market analysis before the open every morning, and it paid off. My analysis lined up with professionals using the same tools. This is encouraging to say the least, and I want to continue this.
2. Honestly, I think I'm good at reading the footprint and DOM when I'm not holding onto any big ideas. I want to make this a huge strength of mine, because I find it enjoyable to read the footprint. I would like to become way more involved with the DOM, and I wish the NT8 SuperDOM displayed market orders like jigsaws platform. I may look further into this. (Also a huge fan of BookMap, it's just too pricey for me right now)
3. I haven't been nearly as selective enough with my trades as I should be. I've gambled continuously by trading hunches rather than viable edges, and the gambling needs to stop all-together. (I watched the MES all of this week and only took 1 trade, so that's a start)..
4. It's obvious that I still get too worked up when I spot an opportunity. I conditioned myself to unconsciously react this way by trading improperly for so long. Being monitored and alerted to overreactions will keep me mindful, which is necessary for good decision making.
5. Given that a stop loss is where I know I'm wrong, there's no use for me to sit and watch the market after entering. One of my weaknesses is interfering with trades, although I've had success with managing this in bouts. I can say now that I'm not the type of trader (or person) that can objectively assess price action while in a trade in order to make a decision to manually exit or not. I went back and forth with this for months; I know I'm the type of person that needs to obey their stop losses.
How will I specifically achieve these goals (goals that need further specification)?:
1. By starting my analysis at 8AM EST without fail. I've developed a rhythm this week with my pre-open analysis that I think will work long-term. Also, I'm still creating the template and once it's finished, I'll put it into action next week and I'll upload it here for anyone who is interested. For accountability purposes and evidence of my diligence, it will be posted in my journal every morning once I finish. Depending on the context of the market, the analyses can take me anywhere from 20 minutes to over an hour to finish. I obviously can't speak for the length of my future ones yet, but when they're done, they have to be uploaded here.
2. By watching the orderflow for at least 2 1/2 hours every trading day, from 9:30AM to 12:00PM. If the MES is trading on volume past that time, I will watch longer. Time flies right by when I watch the footprint and DOM.. It's just engaging. But- I've recently found that this can also be a waste of time. Is it practical to watch the DOM after 12PM if volume is low, and if I don't plan on trading past then? Not really. Perhaps if I'm free and am in a comfortable position in regards to gathering statistics (meaning I've done a lot of stat gathering and need a break), I could watch a thinner market instead like the MNQ. Just a relevant note here from the stats I gathered; out of a sample size of 163 sessions from 9:30AM to 11:30AM, roughly 40% of the time, the MES trades in a value area of less than or equal to 5.5 points.. Read that again. I take that as 40% of the time, I shouldn't be trading. But- I did take this from a small sample size, so take this stat with a grain of salt. Although my feeling is, I need another market to trade along with the MES.. I've got my eyes on the MNQ, and heart on Micro Crude Oil. (went off there)
3. By sitting on my hands, and by establishing exactly what I mean by major confluence in order to trade higher probability opportunities. Right now, I have an idea of what's major confluence and I know it when I see it. For example: when 1 std. dev. away from VWAP is the same price as an LVN region or VAH or VAL.. When yesterdays close is conflated with todays developing VAL, and the VAL of the day before yesterday, etc. Major confluence is when I see many things like VWAP and volume profile line up, and that confluence makes it a high probability trade because VWAP and volume profile traders see the same thing (or.. the market just "works" that way ). At some point I have to sit down and think through what constitutes "major confluence." Confluences can vary by tool and indicator, and there can be many different combinations of it. I must identify these. As for gathering statistics, there really isn't much to explain.
4 and 5 don't need much elaboration either.
To-do list:
1. Finish the pre-open analysis template.
2. Gather more statistics / study the MES more.
3. Determine what constitutes major confluence.
4. Buy an HRV or heart rate monitor.. Or ask Santa for it
Time-frame continuity check:
Monthly: Bullish. Trend bar.
Weekly: Bullish. Trend bar.
Daily: Bullish. Trend bar.
Support levels and the OHLC of relevant candles in the monthly chart (..of the last two candles): 3028.50, 3033.75, 3035.50, 3038.50, 3072, 3146.25, 3148.75, 3157.50, 3225.75, 3229.50.
Support levels and the OHLC of relevant candles in the weekly chart (from 3038.50 and up): 3065.75, 3067.25, 3072, 3077, 3093, 3099.50, 3114, 3118.75, 3120.75, 3121.50, 3135, 3146.25, 3148.50, 3149, 3157.50, 3160.50, 3175.25, 3177, 3179.50, 3188.25, 3225.75, 3229.50.
Support levels and the OHLC of relevant candles in the daily chart (from 3191.75 and up): 3193.50, 3194.50, 3195.50, 3196.75, 3198.50, 3199, 3199.25, 3202.50, 3203, 3204, 3208.75, 3211.75, 3213, 3214.
Major high volume nodes: 3199's, 3139's, 3117's.
Minor high volume nodes: 3226's, 3210's and 5's (weird shape), 3184's, 3172's, 3150's.
Major low volume nodes: 3214's-3220's, 3204, 3186.50- 3191.25, 3181's, 3175's, 3153-3164.
Minor low volume nodes: 3223-3224, 3207-3209,
Notes: If price goes down past ~3188, the market will be trading under the high of the second week of Decembers candle in the weekly chart. If price goes down past ~3157, the market will be trading under the high of Novembers candle in the monthly chart. ~3157-3160 is a very obvious level and is seen in all higher time-frame charts.
A volume profile with a period of 1 month back (composite) shows a value area low of 3118.50, a volume point of control of 3199.50, and a value area high of 3217. Both the value area low and volume point of control of this composite are listed attractors.
So essentially, the first thing I do now is check the OHLC of relevant candles in the monthly, weekly and daily charts if necessary to identify confluence, and to see which levels are seen in all charts. For the daily chart, there were a lot more levels for OHLC that I didn't include (overkill), but I'll be using them for future reference if price goes down. After that, I check the daily chart for high and low volume nodes.. I'll be careful with my distinction between major and minor HVNs and LVNs.. Then I look at volume profile composites from different time periods to get a better perspective. There is a lot here, and this surely is valuable information. I'm going to add market/price profile to the mix, but this is what I usually do (the OHLC thing is a new, though).
Listen.. This is more sloppy than I like, so the next template will be organized by support and resistance levels, and prices will be categorized by OHLC. Volume profile prices will also be categorized as volume profile prices. It'll be very neat, and important levels could not possibly be missed using this method.
What if you simplified this "daily grind" and asked yourself, "What's most recent in the Market's memory?"
In addition to checking for "TFC" on the Monthly, Weekly & Daily time frames,
Did price Gap Up or Down on the Globex Open?
Is price trading above or below that Globex Open Gap? Is price trading above or below the Globex Open?
Have any bars closed below that Globex Gap-Up Open?
Have any bars closed above the Gap-Down Open?
Where is price trading now in relation to the VWAP from the prior session?
Where is price trading now in relation to a 50% Retracement of the prior sessions range?
I considered the markets most recent memory before the RTH session this morning, it's just that last night at the time of the analysis, I knew it might've been pointless to consider the short-term given the changes that can happen overnight- basically, I wanted to save that work for tomorrow. Also, this morning, because it's the 23rd of December / volume and volatility is low, I didn't go into the session being as serious as I'd normally be- I basically just watched the orderflow until 12PM, then called it a day. However, I did do a brief analysis that might satisfy your line of questioning:
"Nearest HVN: ~3226.50, contained LVNs: ~3224.50, 3222.75.
Next HVN down: ~3209.75, ~3206.75, contained LVNs: 3210.50, 3209, 3207.50, 3206.25 (small and messy HVN region).
Next HVN down: ~3199.50, with LVN 3202-3204 right before it.
In the volume profile daily RTH session chart, there is a gap between ~3213 and ~3219 (between Friday and todays sessions). In the ETH session, Fridays sessions VAL is 3220.50, and that price is near the range extreme of todays RTH session."
This is what I was referring to, and I took this screenshot late in the trading day given that gap still wasn't filled:
On another note.
Also.. I wanted to mention a couple things about todays action. Price totally respected 1 std. dev. away from VWAP the entire time I was watching. Even though there was little volume and volatility, this was a source of edge today. Also, 1 std. dev. away from VWAP (top line) at one point was in confluence with chart structure in the hourly chart (HPT):
As for the volume profile side of things, price could not pass Fridays VPOC 3226.50 today. This price was the VPOC of both the ETH and RTH session of Friday, and because of the low volume and lack of conviction from the bears, this price turned out to be a source of edge for the bulls (there were many chances to enter long around here.. big red line):
Even though today was a light day, there were more than a couple of opportunities to net a point or two with each trade. This stuff used to be right under my nose, but now that I'm simply observing, I see the edges.. All that is required to take advantage of these opportunities is preparedness via stats or experience and genuine self-trust- in this case, had I known the answer to could light volume at the start of the session bring with it an increased probability that the previous sessions VPOC won't break?(and if it was a yes), I would've traded this "set-up" with confidence. I say this because I was already confident about the VPOC not breaking by my experience alone.
One more thing, I wanted to share my recent template with you guys, because it's the best template I've ever used:
I have a second monitor (actually a small TV) displaying the daily chart and a volume profile chart of the hourly.. I've zoomed the VP hourly chart out to get a better perspective in analysis and in real-time. My monthly and weekly charts are minimized on the second monitor, and I only check them when doing an analysis like I did last night.. Also, I have a naked chart I look at for perspective when I feel the need to "clear my head", and I have a line chart for all levels that could be important. These charts are on the second monitor as well, but I mostly look at the first monitor for obvious reasons.
I don't think I'll ever need more than the set-up I have right now (although, I'll get Bookmap when I make enough money). The depth of market indicator and time and sales are absolutely underrated tools.. Hell, even the DOM is underrated.
This may be the last time I post here until after Christmas, but we'll see.. I do love this forum.
Quick update.. 2020 is less than a week away. I thought about it, and the first day of next year is the perfect day to start a new journal, so I will be moving my business over to the elite section then. It's about time.
Of course I would like to leave my bullshit back in 2019. I know discontented people feel this way at the end of every year, and I used to laugh at New Years resolutions because a huge majority of people who come up with their own, don't follow through. I know I'm young compared to most of you here, but as my life goes on and I see my own failure to change in certain ways, it's not so funny anymore. This brings up a recent memory..
I was reading Jung months ago, and I forget which book, but within the book he told this story about a girl that had gotten terribly sick.. She was bed-ridden for months, and over that time period, her personality and intellect regressed tremendously. She was once a coherent woman, but turned back into a child. She became infantile once again, and died. I read this and freaked out. I had to put the book down and walk away. I wish I could do the story and memory more justice, but you probably get the point. Stagnation = Death
On a more positive note, I had an excellent Christmas with my family, and because of them, my workspace has been upgraded- I no longer need to use that old small TV as a secondary monitor.. I don't even need a second monitor. I may upload a picture later on, but I'm not going to promise it won't be sideways. I can't believe I haven't figured that out yet.
As for today, I observed the MES. I spotted an opportunity to short at ATHs, but it obviously went against TFC, which is something I prefer to be on my side. I've noticed I have a short bias that doesn't pay.. It has become really apparent lately. I'll continue to show restraint.
Today I seriously tackled one of the things on my to-do list that was created last Friday: "Determine what constitutes major confluence." In order to do this, I simply had to establish the various ways I interpret MGI. I wanted to get specific too, so I wrote down the elements (that could be set-up criteria) of each tool. Here is my current Bible:
Potential Factors of Confluence and their Constituent Elements :
(Some factors are "singular" and require less deliberation. An Open price constitutes itself, whereas a VAH comprises and is an element of volume profile.)
1. (Full) Time-frame Continuity: alignment of sentiment among the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and Hourly charts.
2. Complimentary Chart Structure: Non-contradictory chart structure among the Hourly and Shorter Time-frames. For example, an entry is supported in both the 5 minute and Hourly chart.
3. The OHLC of relevant and imposing day(s). For example, the high of yesterday or the day before may be of interest today.
4. Volume Profile: the VPOC, VAH, and VAL of relevant and imposing daily session(s). ETH and/or RTH.. Daily LVNs and HVNs.
5. Market Profile: the PPOC, VAH and VAL of relevant and imposing daily sessions(s). ETH and/or RTH.
7. Orderflow: Size waiting in the depth map, size hitting the tape, unfinished auction lines develop, RTH SuperDOM HVN or LVN develops.
I strung together a common set of factors listed from above and explicitly recreated a situation that I've seen quite a bit while watching the market. In other words, I finally have actual conditional criteria to go by; I have my own set-up. I will apply it next week. Many more combinations of factors to create a set-up could be extrapolated (as it's not necessary to have ALL factors as a trade requirement), but I would rather see what happens / see what is common in the market in real-time.
I still have to finish my second bout of information gathering.. Very tedious work, but it will pay off.
I didn't upload my analysis today because I didn't have enough time. I went overboard on the analysis for the sake of total preparation, here it is:
8 AM Analysis (In-depth account of relevant OHLC, Chart Structure, Volume Profile, and News Check):
"Monthly: Bullish. Possibly bearish if price trades under 3157.5 (90 pts. below). Weekly: Bullish. Current candle is an inside candle, between 3236.50 and 3244.50.
This weeks OHL: O = 3238.25, H = 3244.25, L = 3236.50
Last weeks OHLC: O = 3227, H = 3254, L = 3222.50, C = 3237.50
Week before last weeks OHLC: O = 3179.50, H = 3229.50, L = 3177, C = 3225.75
In the Daily, sentiment would be bearish if 3236.75 and 3235.50 broke. More support at 3234.25 as well. Possible support at 3231, 3229.50, and there's a big HVN at 3227.75. If 3227.75 breaks, what's the chance of a retracement all the way back to 3199.50? It's a huge HVN.
During my analysis, I was concerned with all of these stacked levels in the 3230's (the red lines in the screenshot) because of the high volume node (crimson line at the bottom) below. I knew a major sell off would naturally be attracted to 3227, so this was in the back of my mind going into the session. My thoughts on the market didn't go any further than that.
So the open came, and the market sold off hard. It blew through all of the red levels and went straight to 3227. I didn't want to get involved because there were no opportunities for me (yet), and the thing was, I sat there knowing I could've taken advantage of the situation. Well, I'm currently viewing the market through a lens of confluence, and I didn't have a set of factors of confluence to go by for a day like today-so that's been added to my to-do list. A side note here, I actually came up with two set-ups through my "bible", and I ended up using the one I had in mind for light volume range days. It worked out nicely.
I took this screenshot feeling great, because volume profile led me to the right idea:
However, I was surprised to see price break 3222.50, and when it did, I was compelled to short there on a pull-back. I realized this was impulsive and wasn't part of my strategy, so I didn't do it- but I was close.
Anyway, after price broke 3222.50, I re-analyzed the market for new or still-remaining/relevant levels. I found 3229.50, 3231, 3234, 3235.50 and 3236.50 to be possible short locations. I checked out every level while the market was doing it's thing for confluence, and established 3231 and 3234 to be the most attractive. Here's why:
Confluences of 3231:
- Daily Structure
- Hourly Structure
- 50% retracement (meaning 3231 was right in the middle of todays range)
- VWAP confluence (VWAP was trading around this level at the time of analysis)
- December 26's VAL in the ETH session
- Major HVN confluence (price magnet 3227.50 nearby)
- LVN in the Daily
Confluences of 3234:
- Daily Structure
- Hourly Structure
- Confluence with prior LOD 3235.5
- Confluence w/ prior close 3236.50
- Confluence with December 26's VPOC 3236.50
Both levels were excellent trade locations, but 3231 was more attractive to me because of the fact that there was a huge HVN right underneath it. It was more likely for price to reverse at 3231 than it was to even advance to 3234, unless an abnormal buyer entered there. So my plan was: if the orderflow signals it, sell at 3231. I knew that I didn't have to risk much on this trade because if 3231 were to break, 3234 was the next area for shorts to come in. I'd know I was wrong quickly. So my risk was 2 points (which was a little much but I wanted wiggle room given todays volatility), and the idea was that if I were to lose at 3231, I could re-enter short at 3234 given the go from the tape. Anyway, I waited and watched as price traded around 3231, and when I saw an unfinished auction line develop at the top after seeing lack of interest from buyers, I was in. Honestly, my profit target was undecided, but I had a couple of ideas: I thought buying back into 3227 would be a good idea, and I considered exiting at 3224 which was 1 std. dev. from VWAP to the short side.
I watched the market for a minute or so after entry, then realized I needed to GTFO before I made a bad decision. I walked away and stayed away for about 10 minutes, came back, and saw the trade was still going. I took 3-4 ticks of heat while I was gone. I re-evaluated the confluences I had written down for the trade and re-gained the confidence I had lost after entering. My trade plan was awesome, actually. I sat at my computer, put on my headphones and played some music. At that point, I didn't care very much if I won or lost. So I'll be doing this again. Anyway, I stayed in the trade for 35 minutes before I cashed in for 1R: I didn't like that I was still in the trade at 1PM and thought it was the wisest thing to close. Of course, there was an element of impulsivity to the close (as there was mental back and forth going on as to whether or not I should let it run given the time), and this is because I was statistically unaware of the situation (the time of day).
I consider today a net positive experience: I learned that re-directing your attention to your reasoning as to why you got in a trade is very helpful, in that it gives you the confidence you need to stay in your position. However, it is also true that you can lose sight of this via drifting/ consideration of other currently unknown probabilities (in my case today, the time of day). This can be remedied by putting effort into learning these situations via data collecting and/or avoiding these situations all-together. Today, I saw one of my set-ups with extra confluences and I was compelled to enter as a result. Admittedly and obviously, the time of day didn't matter to me at the time of entry- not in a neglectful sense, more in that I was caught up in acting on my strategy. Also, the market did end up reaching my furthest mental profit target around 2:15PM. Ordinarily I would be upset about this sort of thing, but I'm more proud of my performance, especially because of the plan I came up with in real-time.
+2 points.
What can I do better next time or do in general to become a better trader?:
- Keep track of time. Also gather more statistics on volume, volatility, value area, etc. for the time period of 11:30AM-1:30PM(I just finished data collecting for the time period 9:30AM-11AM, 500+ sample size.. Currently in the process of mistake checking).
- Check the trade every 10 minutes, and after checking, don't stick around like today. Listen to music somewhere else.
- Consider Potential Factors of Confluence to re-create a set-up for a trend day like todays. I think for trend days, "2 standard deviations from VWAP" comes into play.
I think that's it. Beautiful day today, adjustments tonight and tomorrow.
And using thoughts of regret as a warning (this one should be easy compared to the rest).
