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Zach's Log

  #391 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
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wldman View Post
I did/do not mean to sound dismissive with the roll of the dice comment.

I want people to be aware that trading against an inside bar and/or without time frame continuity can sometimes bring challenges that I personally do not need to add to my roster of concern.

Do I do it from time to time, yes. Does it work out, sometimes it does. While I do not have data I do believe that inside bars are broadly the enemy know as "chop" and that the quicker the chart the more "choppy" costs

-Dan

I don't know if this was directed at me or TopGunNote, but that doesn't matter much.. It's plain to see that I haven't been above "rolling the dice" in this game (who hasn't rolled the dice), yet I'm setting my priorities straight within it now. If the comment was written in a dismissive manner and was directed at me, there is an element of truth in it that does matter more than my feelings (this has always been my view). Success in this business requires consistent execution of high probability trades and grit, which is something I lose sight of from time to time.. If I were to get offended at a seemingly dismissive comment like yours, that offense certainly wouldn't attest to the grit needed to become a profitable trader, but maybe I'm overreaching here..

There is an element of formality, friendliness and generosity in this forum. It's refreshing to have matter-of-fact guys like you and @TopGunNote here. Anything you two say that may seem dismissive or mean will not be interpreted as such by me.. On the other hand, like you, I often infer tone from replies and will retort if I'm certain something is funky and personal. I've recognized how you communicate.

Also @wldman yeah, that was the trade and I'm glad you understand. Around the price 3135, todays candle became a doji, which had me think that the bulls would attempt to maintain that level.. Then I thought, well sweaty bears could interpret this as a sell, too. Then I thought "That's why it's an inside day.." Price action could be interpreted as both bearish and bullish, making it a 50/50 proposition. Something major needs to happen to garner OTF interest, which can result in great R:R and higher probability trades. This is underneath every traders nose, but most just want to trade everyday because there is an addictive element to trading, and with the wrong strategy and temperament, shit can fall apart fast. And over and over again.

Thanks for your input today. Awesome journal, too.

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  #392 (permalink)
 
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 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
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Zach.

I simply wanted to clarify that I was not being dismissive of things that respectable members may have really worked on. Sometimes when I am busy I just start typing and there is a fine line sometimes.

Thanks for posting and engaging in conversation.

-Dan

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  #393 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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Morning Process:

1. Review daily goals. Make them the absolute focus of the trading day by keeping them in mind, and focus on accomplishing them in order (1 goal at a time).

2. Re-adjust LVNs and HVNs in the daily chart if necessary. Don't put effort into creating hypothetical scenarios, particularly don't entertain any big ideas of what price could do.

3. Look at and note/write down scheduled news release times.

4. Review entry rules. Practice execution and holding trades in SIM. Get as ready as possible. Practice both trend and range plays.

5. Meditate for at least 10 minutes before the cash open / trading session. The longer the meditation, the better. Be sure to be in a meditative state by 9:30AM. ✓-.. Meditated just 5 minutes right before the open.

Daily Goals:

1. For my planning and preparation for the session, I only re-adjusted and/or acknowledged LVNs and HVNs in the daily chart, and translated them to the shorter time-frames. I did not come up with any hypothetical scenarios, as they've proven to negatively effect my bottom line. =

2. I made a trading decision after deliberately identifying dominant strength, dominant weakness, or range-bound conditions within the first 15-20 minutes of the cash open. =

3. If today was range-bound, I took at least 1 trade that was appropriate for the conditions. I applied and executed my trading range strategy. = Today was a trend day.

4. If I took a trade today, I was patient and waited for the best price. I didn't execute too early and/or before Areas of Interest. =

5. If I took a trade today, I let my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did not interfere with the trade(s). = X.. I closed the trade early for 2R because of wonky price action.



Did I make any mistakes today? If so, what did I do wrong, and why? (specify): I didn't meditate long enough. I closed the trade early but I feel justified in this.

Possible actionable solution(s) for the mistake for future reference: -

Do I continually make this mistake? -



Additional notes: I really focused on being selective today.. I could've chased this market and got my ass handed to me, but I was patient and found my opportunity (TFC). I feel great about today.



The Trade:

Context of the trade: There was time frame continuity across all charts, all of which were (are)showing trend bars.













I was looking to join the party and to enter on a pull-back. I looked at all of these charts and determined that simply buying the close of the last bar was the way to go (I plotted a white line near the 3170's). There also was unfinished business at the last bars close as well:



I put in a limit buy order at 3168.75 and was filled. 2 points of risk with 10 points of upside (targeting ATHs). I closed the trade for 2R because the market really slowed down, and price was moving erratically (I rolled-over, should've waited longer to do that).. One moment I'd be in the red 4 ticks, then in the blink of an eye I'd be up 3 ticks.

Anyways, I ended up getting a tick less than 2R. +3.75 points for the day.. It feels good to trade this way (with TFC). It's not a gamble.

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  #394 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711

Decided to "trim" some elements of my journal template as I've found the last post I made was obnoxious for me to make, and to read. Also getting rid of the checkmarks because copying and paste-ing them is unnecessary compared to typing Y for yes or N for no. I may do some more trimming in the near future as well.

Morning Process:

1. Re-adjust LVN and HVN regions in the daily chart if necessary. Don't create any plans on what you think that market could do; simply identify and plot areas price could react to. = Y

2. Write down relevant news release times for real-time reference. = Y

3. Practice execution and holding trades in SIM. Practice both trend and range plays. = N

5. Meditate for at least 10 minutes before the open. = N

Daily Goals:

1. I made a trading decision after deliberately identifying dominant strength, dominant weakness, or range-bound conditions within the first 15-20 minutes of the cash open. = Yes, but the environment was complicated and I had to change my views throughout the session.

3. If today was range-bound, I took at least 1 trade that was appropriate for the conditions. I applied and executed my trading range strategy. = No, as today wasn't the kind of day I'd apply that strategy (price needs to be slower).

4. If I took a trade today, I was patient and waited for the best price. I didn't execute too early and/or before Areas of Interest. = Yes

5. If I took a trade today, I let my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did not interfere with the trade(s). = With the first trade, yes. With the second trade, no. I closed the second trade early for 1R because it was a Friday at noon and I felt more unsure about the trade as time went by.



Did I make any mistakes today? If so, what did I do wrong, and why? (specify): I didn't meditate at all today and I didn't practice execution. If I'm being honest, practicing execution didn't feel necessary. It is.

Possible actionable solution(s) for the mistake for future reference: Just do it. I was doing other things this morning that weren't as important.

Do I continually make this mistake? Shut up and "pick it up" on Monday.



Additional notes: Today was an interesting day.. More below.



Took two trades today with the first trade being a loser, and the second being a winner. First trade was a long, here are the details:




Was stopped out for a 2 point loss.


Second trade was a short:



Second trade was based on confluence between yesterdays VPOC and yesterdays close.

+1.75 points.

Down 1 tick on the day.

Hate to keep "showing my ass" on here but I'm keeping it honest. If you've read me long enough you know discipline and following a process isn't my strong suit (why is he trading?). But- I'll never give up, even when I feel like quitting. I know I have that going for me.

All in all, todays performance wasn't so bad. The only issue here is doing the right things in the morning.



Lastly and more importantly, I find it increasingly uncomfortable to trade without having my own set of trade statistics. So I'm studying the MES this weekend to come up with some. Any ideas on how to go about this will be more than appreciated.

..Damn there was a lot of mistakes in this post.

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  #395 (permalink)
 
Botts's Avatar
 Botts 
Penetanguishene, Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: None
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Zachary Standley View Post

All in all, today's performance wasn't so bad. The only issue here is doing the right things in the morning.

Lastly and more importantly, I find it increasingly uncomfortable to trade without having my own set of trade statistics. So I'm studying the MES this weekend to come up with some. Any ideas on how to go about this will be more than appreciated.

A couple of thoughts for you to think about over the weekend:

First suggestion:
I think you should use a session template that's divided into three (3) sessions (Overnight, RTH & ETH)

Here's one set-up for the CME US Index Futures using Central Time 5:00pm - 08:30 / 08:30 - 15:15 / 15:30 - 16:00pm

You can copy this file into your Documents\NinjaTrader 8\templates\TradingHours folder

CME US Index Futures 3 Sessions.xml

Second suggestion:
The MES trades about 1/5th the daily volume of the ES, so the 1.000 volume chart may not be the right choice?
I noted the other day that @wldman was using a 1,600 Tick chart - occasionally.

Maybe take a look at a 350 Tick chart on MES and keep it beside a 60 Minute so you can know which direction the 60 is trading for your "entry bias".

I attached two screenshots showing both Instruments on the relevant setting.

I don't know what you think about this, but they look very similar (to me), even though one is set to roughly 1/5th the other's Tick count.

Enjoy the study time this weekend.

Trade well.
John B.

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  #396 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
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TopGunNote View Post
A couple of thoughts for you to think about over the weekend:

First suggestion:
I think you should use a session template that's divided into three (3) sessions (Overnight, RTH & ETH)

Here's one set-up for the CME US Index Futures using Central Time 5:00pm - 08:30 / 08:30 - 15:15 / 15:30 - 16:00pm

You can copy this file into your Documents\NinjaTrader 8\templates\TradingHours folder

Attachment 281753

Second suggestion:
The MES trades about 1/5th the daily volume of the ES, so the 1.000 volume chart may not be the right choice?
I noted the other day that @wldman was using a 1,600 Tick chart - occasionally.

Maybe take a look at a 350 Tick chart on MES and keep it beside a 60 Minute so you can know which direction the 60 is trading for your "entry bias".

I attached two screenshots showing both Instruments on the relevant setting.

I don't know what you think about this, but they look very similar (to me), even though one is set to roughly 1/5th the other's Tick count.

Enjoy the study time this weekend.

Trade well.
John B.

Oh yes, the first time I heard from you, you sent me that time session template. In creating a new workspace recently I automatically applied ETH and RTH hours to my charts. I'll apply the 3 Sessions template now. Also, that chart looks very similar.. Similar enough. It brings up the question- is there a reason for him using a 1600 tick chart specifically? Or is it preference? I've always stuck to round numbers like 500 or 1000 when it comes to using tick or volume charts, and I've seen other traders using 233 tick charts, or some other unusual number. I've always been curious as to why this is..

Thanks again John. Always a great help!

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  #397 (permalink)
 
Salao's Avatar
 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Tradestation
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Zachary Standley View Post
Hate to keep "showing my ass" on here but I'm keeping it honest. If you've read me long enough you know discipline and following a process isn't my strong suit (why is he trading?). But- I'll never give up, even when I feel like quitting. I know I have that going for me.

All in all, todays performance wasn't so bad. The only issue here is doing the right things in the morning.

Lastly and more importantly, I find it increasingly uncomfortable to trade without having my own set of trade statistics. So I'm studying the MES this weekend to come up with some. Any ideas on how to go about this will be more than appreciated.

Hey @Zachary Standley ! Don't worry about the "ass showing." I think that's what learning to trade is supposed to look like. Haha! I think you've read my journal from the beginning and have seen my metaphorical 'ass' all over the place . I think that's just how it works. But me thinks you have a good attitude about it and that will help you get 'there'.

I think keeping trade statistics is a great idea! I don't really keep personal performance statistics...I have in the past, but have stopped. Now I just look at my equity curve if I want some type of mathematical model of ME. BUT I have started to do statistical studies on chart patterns though and I do it all by hand. I think the process of repeatedly combing through each session's chart and parsing through data to collect information has been crazy informative. It gets very tedious sometimes but I think it's worth it.

One of my 'studies' is the win rate of all high-1/low-1 entries in the direction of trend. Using two different approaches for Risk (R), I measure how often a high-1/low-1 entry will get 1R. The only other filter for this study is the entry has to be in the direction of the trend. Which makes the study subjective and biased to my own standards of 'what a trend is'. That's OK because when I'm actually trading, I'm the one in charge of identifying trend direction . Going through each day and identifying high-1/low-1's and then measuring to see if 'the move' achieved 1R can be somewhat grueling after a long day at work. But I believe it has been worthwhile. While doing this I have started to develop a sense of when one side of the market is trapped, I have started to look at chart patterns differently, and I've realized how freakin' good a high-1/low-1 actually is (especially in a strong trend ). The statistical information that I've collected is nice to have, but there have been so many other knock-on things I've learned from doing this.

Sorry to get rambly my friend. One other thing...I like that question you ask yourself in your journal format...Do I continually make this mistake? I have started to ask myself more and more since reading your post. It's a simple question, but answering it helps me have perspective about myself, for myself. Haha! Have a great weekend Zachary!

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  #398 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
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Salao View Post
Hey @Zachary Standley ! Don't worry about the "ass showing." I think that's what learning to trade is supposed to look like. Haha! I think you've read my journal from the beginning and have seen my metaphorical 'ass' all over the place . I think that's just how it works. But me thinks you have a good attitude about it and that will help you get 'there'.

I think keeping trade statistics is a great idea! I don't really keep personal performance statistics...I have in the past, but have stopped. Now I just look at my equity curve if I want some type of mathematical model of ME. BUT I have started to do statistical studies on chart patterns though and I do it all by hand. I think the process of repeatedly combing through each session's chart and parsing through data to collect information has been crazy informative. It gets very tedious sometimes but I think it's worth it.

One of my 'studies' is the win rate of all high-1/low-1 entries in the direction of trend. Using two different approaches for Risk (R), I measure how often a high-1/low-1 entry will get 1R. The only other filter for this study is the entry has to be in the direction of the trend. Which makes the study subjective and biased to my own standards of 'what a trend is'. That's OK because when I'm actually trading, I'm the one in charge of identifying trend direction . Going through each day and identifying high-1/low-1's and then measuring to see if 'the move' achieved 1R can be somewhat grueling after a long day at work. But I believe it has been worthwhile. While doing this I have started to develop a sense of when one side of the market is trapped, I have started to look at chart patterns differently, and I've realized how freakin' good a high-1/low-1 actually is (especially in a strong trend ). The statistical information that I've collected is nice to have, but there have been so many other knock-on things I've learned from doing this.

Sorry to get rambly my friend, normally not my style. One other thing...I like that question you ask yourself in your journal format...Do I continually make this mistake? I have started to ask myself more and more since reading your post. It's a simple question, but answering it helps me have perspective about myself, for myself. Haha! Have a great weekend Zachary!

I'm not as worried about it as much as I am sick of my own shit! After reading @Massive l's post the other day about what not to do as a trader, on top of having been reminded of TFC and having learned what an "inside bar" is, it just got me thinking.. Compared to these guys, I'm trading in the dark here. Sure, I have and use volume profile and orderflow, but it's not working for me. It's not working because I'm not confident in the market, and I'm not confident because I don't have "the numbers" by my side. The only reasonable thing for me to do is to gather my own stats, and to supplement my trading / decision making with them. I've been neglecting to do this because I thought I'd figure it out as I went along trading live. Nope! How arrogant of me.. I put too much faith into developing my own trading psychology which I secretly thought to be a source of edge. To some degree it is, but I don't want to get into that discussion.. I'm sick of that too!

Thank you @Salao.. What you said is both kind and promising. Anyways, I have to keep this short because I've gotta catch up to you and come up with my own stats, so quit bothering me.

Enjoy your weekend.

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  #399 (permalink)
 
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 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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Intended to just watch / listen to the market today, so no trades.

Morning Process:

1. Re-adjust LVN and HVN regions in the daily chart if necessary. Don't create any plans on what you think that market could do; simply identify and plot areas price could react to. = Y

2. Write down relevant news release times. = Y

3. Practice execution and holding trades in SIM. Practice both trend and range plays. = N

5. Meditate for at least 10 minutes before the open. = Y

Daily Goals:

1. I made a trading decision after deliberately identifying dominant strength, dominant weakness, or range-bound conditions within the first 15-20 minutes of the cash open. = It was clear that the MES was bullish, and I wrote this down.

3. If today was range-bound, I took at least 1 trade that was appropriate for the conditions. I applied and executed my trading range strategy. = -

4. If I took a trade today, I was patient and waited for the best price. I didn't execute too early and/or before Areas of Interest. = -

5. If I took a trade today, I let my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did not interfere with the trade(s). = -


Did I make any mistakes today? If so, what did I do wrong, and why? (specify): I didn't practice execution because I just wanted to watch and listen to the market.

Possible actionable solution(s) for the mistake for future reference: Next time I intend to take a trade, I'll practice execution beforehand.

Do I continually make this mistake?



Additional notes: Today was one of those days the market just kept going up on low volume. This seems to happen a lot. I was mentally trading, as I established good entry regions and waited for the market to reach them- but price never did. Instead, price was continually bought up from 1 std. deviation away from VWAP (the thin blue line in confluence with the white line which was structural / channel support).. Makes sense mathematically, given it was a bull trend day.



Studying the MES the past couple of days has influenced me in that I don't want to trade given I don't know situations as much as I should on a statistical level. Of course, from experience and intuition I made the correct inference that today was likely to be a bull trend day, but I obviously think this experience and intuition isn't enough in the long-term.. This is not to say that I won't take a trade or two this week through the lens of TFC, as I'm more than convinced that the strategy works. If I identify a set-up that is truly a high probability deal in a context that I'm familiar with, I will take it. I just don't want to rule out trading completely for now, I'm just simply putting more emphasis on gathering data. I want to know what I'm doing.

More studying for me now.

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  #400 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
Thanks Given: 2,968
Thanks Received: 2,711


Morning Process:

1. Re-adjust LVN and HVN regions in the daily chart if necessary. Don't create any plans on what you think that market could do; simply identify and plot areas price could react to. = Y

2. Write down relevant news release times. = Y

3. Practice execution and holding trades in SIM. Practice both trend and range plays. = N

5. Meditate for at least 10 minutes before the open. = Y

Daily Goals:

1. I made a trading decision after deliberately identifying dominant strength, dominant weakness, or range-bound conditions within the first 15-20 minutes of the cash open. = Y

3. If today was range-bound, I took at least 1 trade that was appropriate for the conditions. I applied and executed my trading range strategy. = Y

4. If I took a trade today, I was patient and waited for the best price. I didn't execute too early and/or before Areas of Interest. = Y

5. If I took a trade today, I let my profit target or stop loss get hit. I did not interfere with the trade(s). = N



Did I make any mistakes today? If so, what did I do wrong, and why? (specify): I didn't hold the trade long enough. My risk was tight and I kept staring at the footprint.

Possible actionable solution(s) for the mistake for future reference: Just walk away from the screen.

Do I continually make this mistake? Yes. Just walk away next time.



Additional notes: Besides that, pretty good day.



In terms of absolute risk, this is the best trade I've ever executed:



Only 1 point of risk.. Cut it short for a 2 tick gain from giving into thoughts like "there's no way I'd get away with a stop that small.." Well, I would've. (Potential 2-4R)

Today was supposed to be (and mostly was) a day to watch and listen to the market. Knowing this didn't stop me from executing, but it certainly influenced me to get out.. Besides that, I'm encouraged and blown away that risking as little as a point can work out. I think I know why:

There was a lot of support and confluence for this trade.
- All the longer time-frames were/are bullish.
- Cumulative delta was mildly positive. Range behavior with a bullish tilt; indicating acceptable tight risk profile.
- ~3197.50 was a low volume node region.
- Price couldn't break ~3196 in the hourly chart. 3196 was tested in the session only once before.
- Right before execution, price was approaching the 1 std. dev. line from VWAP which was conflated with 3196.
- If I'm not mistaken, 3196.50 or a price near it (conflation) was the VAL in the VP of today at the time.
- There were unfinished auction lines at 3196.25.
- Dead silence at 3196.50 when we got there.

Seeing all of this line up compelled me to enter.

I want to see this much confluence and support in all of my trades. This certainly was a high probability one, and it would've been a beauty if I walked away to let it develop. Support and confluence.

On another note, I added an older TV to my set-up to display Volume Profile and the longer timeframe charts.. Added a nutcracker or 20, too:



This is what I see everyday. I must say, being able to look at all charts at once really changes things: It certainly has made me more selective.

Image is sideways.. Keeping it anyway.

Goal for tomorrow: If I do get into any trades, I'm to walk away from my screen after.

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