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1st trade:
As mentioned in my last post here, what I was waiting for was to see the interaction of price at the level ~3000, which was respected support this morning / was the value area low of the time of the trade. I planned to go long here. After seeing ineffective big sellers in the OrderFlow at that price level, I went long- but it wasn't that simple psychologically:
Admittedly, I was too hesitant in my execution with this trade. In my eyes, a price I realistically could've entered at was 2998 (I knew this in real-time), but I was too busy making sense of the orderflow, and I was doubting my read. With little conviction, I entered long at 3000 exactly, and quickly got stopped out. Damn.
2nd trade:
My funds haven't settled yet, but they will soon. At this point, I was 4 points away from my max daily loss limit. I took a breather for a second, came back to my charts, and realized that price was acting hesitant at yesterdays volume point of control. I remembered that I've traded off of the VPOC with success in the past, and with that memory combined with the obvious absorption in the OrderFlow, I was compelled to enter. I did so without hesitation, and put my stop loss behind yesterdays VPOC (2 pts. of risk). I immediately put in my earphones and went for a run. I didn't have a profit target in place, but I was thinking that the top of today's range would suffice. I was gone for 20 minutes or so, and when I came back, I was 3 points in the green. I impulsively closed the trade when I saw this, then watched as price did exactly what I wanted it to do in the first place.
+1.25 points for the day. I can do much better.
I notice when I set profit targets, I'm much more likely to stick with them than to close out of a trade manually. Today, like I mentioned, I didn't set one. I'll definitely set a profit target next trade.
What I did well:
- I let myself get stopped out of the first trade.
- I went for a run to let my second trade develop.
- I saw an opportunity and I took it, even after losing.
- My pre-open analysis was accurate. I came back from a bad morning.
- I stuck to my plan and adapted to current market conditions. (Put 2 and 2 together)
What I did poorly:
- I closed the second trade too early to cover my loss. Despite doing a lot of things well, this mistake is potentially costly enough to nullify all things I do well, in the long run.
- Was too anxious while performing.
What I need to do:
- No more coffee before trading.. (I made this a rule awhile ago, I've been playing it off)
- Set profit targets and stick to them.
I have also had to deal with the complete cessation of coffee while I trade. It spikes cortisol, and I noticed it made me feel stressed, when generally I feel just fine while trading.
It has been awhile since I have been on your thread or Futures.io, how have things been going for you?
The difference is night and day when I don't drink coffee before trading. Around a month ago, I successfully didn't drink any caffeine before performing, and I was way less risk-averse than I usually am. I was taking risky, edge-less trades as a consequence. I felt pretty stupid afterwards. I probably won't encounter that problem tomorrow, but we'll see.
I noticed that, it's been quite a long time. Things are definitely better for me than when we talked last. When you first commented in my journal, I didn't have a set strategy, and I was mostly trading breakouts in the ES with tight stops (had terrible trade location), so I was inevitably getting my ass handed to me. Also, I was in SIM trading a $5000 account, thinking I could become skilled enough to grow that capital quickly. I didn't respect the possibility of a draw-down, and I totally over-valued my potential growth. Not to mention my poor psychology (hard time holding trades, I used to miss every opportunity), which is something I'm still working on. As of June 18th this year, I hit my 1-year mark, and I'm sure I've grown in ways I simply can't see. Personally, I've become more disciplined, and I'm still not the most rational person, but I'm still in the process of changing. Overall, I think I'm doing well.
I'm not there yet, but I'm very grateful and almost surprised that I've made it this far, and I believe I can become consistently profitable as long as I continuously make the right decisions. I'm currently trading live with no evidence of profitability, mostly because I had been in SIM for way too long, and because I'm willing to lose money to get more experience in the market. The money I'm using is truly risk capital, so I'm not that worried about losing it- it's just that my reactions to price action have been conditioned from prior experiences. I have to unlearn some trading fears; particularly when price approaches a pre-determined "good" entry level- that, and holding trades. I'll conquer these fears eventually, if not soon. Time and genuine effort / exposure.
But yeah, life is good.
Be more active @spetscom, make a journal here or something.. Are you still trading?
"Daily is bullish. We pushed new highs last night. Price has bounced off of 3007.75 twice, and just recently it tested todays VAL. All this testing occurred on low volume, so it's hard to say how strong these levels are.. I can easily imagine price falling back into yesterdays range.
I want to see the interaction of price at ~3008.25, ~3007.75, ~3006.75. These are particularly good buy prices, given low volume and volatility / range behavior [today]. ~3005 may be a good buy price as well, given exhaustion or absorption from sellers at that level.
If volume is heavy today, and the bears take hold, it's possible that we may reach yesterdays VAL, if not Wednesdays. A good reversal point may be ~2997.75, because Wednesday's VPOC and yesterdays VAL coincide around there. 2993.25 and ~2988 are the best possible reversal points as well [on a larger scale].
I made sure not to drink any coffee before trading this morning, and I was tired during trading as a consequence. When the open came, volume was light / price action was slow, and I got bored and part of me just wanted to go make a cup of coffee. Despite that, price was very close to potentially great entry prices right out of the open (3008, 3007 and 3006), and price soon reached and reacted to 3006.50 in my favor. I didn't enter though, because I wanted to see more activity first- it was 9:39am when price reached ~3006. I don't like trading the open; historically, I lose around that time and today's a Friday- and I tend to lose more on Fridays as well.. So, needless to say, I was on the side of caution today. Hadn't I of been, I could've made a profit today.
Price revisited ~3006 and pushed it by 2 ticks after climbing up to todays VAH. That was my second chance to back my idea, but I just wasn't having it. I didn't trust the OrderFlow because of already stated reasons, and because it was later on in the day, on a Friday. I think this is just a bad attitude to have, because there definitely is money to be made even on days like this. In the future, I need to be more open to executing my edge in seemingly poor conditions. Lately, I've noticed that there's plenty of opportunities at times you wouldn't expect- it's just that, you have to be very patient to deal with the slow volume. It puts me to sleep, but I should at least try to get used to it.
So no trades for the day.
What did I do well?:
- I didn't drink coffee.
- My pre-open analysis was accurate.
What did I do poorly?:
- As a result of not being caffeinated, my energy was low and I didn't perform my best.
- The first time price hit a good entry level (~3006 at 9:39) and I didn't execute was fine- that caution is part of my plan. The second time, it was all there, but I didn't act.
- I didn't have the best attitude about trading today.
What do I need to do?:
- Quit coffee entirely so I don't have ups and downs that interfere with my trading performance.
- Change my attitude about trading on Fridays. I need to execute my edge every time it appears (while following my rules), with confirmation through the OrderFlow.
Been drinking less coffee than usual to prepare me for this week. It's funny, it seems to have more of an effect per scoop (colombian folgers) when I'm trading than it does when I'm not. Maybe this is because of the anticipation of possibly taking a trade increases my cortisol levels and adrenaline.. All I know is, the strength of the coffee feels way lesser on days off, which makes me want to drink more- thankfully, I'm not horribly addicted to it psychologically; I'm just keeping in mind that there's potential for better trading with a less stressed out me- and this is a very promising idea.
You know, usually I'm all-things trading on my weekends (researching, listening/watching webinars, learning, etc.), but this weekend I took it easy and did other things. I think it's because I realized a couple weeks ago, that it's really unhealthy to always be thinking about or to be involved exclusively with trading. I had tunnel vision at points in my journey, and I was looking for something akin to a secret without acknowledging it as such; something that would drastically improve my trading. Obviously there's good information out there that can help, but how many webinars and methods is enough?.. Now I'm just accepting that the real work to be done is from Monday through Friday during RTH, not through intellectually masturbating trading on the weekends. I just have to stick to my strategy, and do the right thing when I'm supposed to. That's it. On the other hand, unfortunately, the work that really has to be done is intimate, personal, and emotional, more-so than technical and intellectual, in my case. That requires a long-term plan, which involves getting rid of coffee and things alike that will probably hinder my success.
Do not read this if you are malleable in your adoption of trading ideas.
Pre-open Analysis:
"The daily is bullish and we're at ATHs. As of 7:25, we're pushing the 3020's. I already know what I'm going to do if the market lines up for me: Buy around 3017. That price area is a LVN, and it has been tested twice before recently. It was resistance yesterday, too. (Everyone can see this)
On the flip side, I can also imagine price re-visiting ~3011, if not ~3007, given a strong bearish open. If this happens and the OrderFlow looks good, ~3011 and ~3007 are good buy prices.
If we push even higher without testing my established good entry prices, that's ok. Tomorrow is another day."
I was surprised to see price sell off the way it did out of the gate. It quickly reached 3017, which was an established potentially good entry price in my pre-open analysis. The OrderFlow showed bearish strength as price hit that level, so I kept my hand off the mouse. When the clock hit ~9:40, the bears dried up and I noticed that buyers were piling in. I entered long at 3016 because that was the plan (except I got in at a better entry price), and I ended up staying in the trade for ~40 minutes. My profit target was 3021, but the low participation was as clear as day, so I exited with a 3 tick gain. As for my performance this morning, this was hands down the best work I've ever done (for live trading, anyways).
What I did well:
- My pre-open analysis was accurate.
- I executed my plan and adapted to the OrderFlow. I entered at a better price.
- I exercised discipline to stay in the trade. I was in it for a long time.
- I was calm and collected. The possibility of losing money didn't bother me.
- I also exercised good judgment/logic and simply closed the trade.
What I could have done better:
- I could've entered earlier, 3015 would've been fantastic, but also kind of unrealistic.
- I could've closed the trade a just a tad later- it seems I have a habit of closing trades right before price advances in my favor.
What I should do:
- Replicate this behavior tomorrow. Keep going.
It was a very slow day. Hopefully we get some better action tomorrow.
Thank you, @mtzimmer1. Today was a very different experience for me execution-wise. In my perception, taking the trade at that point in time felt too early- but cognitively, I was thinking and I even announced (I was screen-recording with a headset-microphone) "now would be a great time to enter." After I said that I just jumped in, and I'm glad I did.
I'm definitely ready for it. I want to perform the way I did today.
On another note: Within a week or two, I'll be uploading videos on my trading to YouTube. I'm thinking about covering my pre-open analysis, and especially recording myself trading live. I've found that the microphone headset that I've had is sufficient for the task, and I bought a webcam despite @matthew28's advice. I'll have fun with this, and most importantly, I'll be held accountable. It's hard to do the wrong thing when you know you're being watched.
I'll have fun with this, and most importantly, I'll be held accountable. It's hard to do the wrong thing when you know you're being watched.