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Well done on being able to make a profit withdrawal.
And also on winning the $50 voucher. Out of the two suggestions I would go for a microphone, a video that includes a window of you talking is just taking up space that could be used by a chart or something. The Blue microphone range could be worth considering as they have a good reputation and the Snowball as a high quality basic mic would be close to that price. https://www.bluedesigns.com:443/products/snowball/
You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
I had a fantastic Fourth of July, and I had a great weekend. Even with having had such a great time, I feel that nothing compares to making progress personally, and in my trading. This is because there is much more purpose in my personal investments / trading than there is with drinking with friends (no offense to them), and, because there's no hangover- in fact, if I'm doing what I should be doing, there should be incremental development. The satisfaction of meeting goals and pursuing the bigger picture is what really keeps me happy, and what motivates me the most. Everything else is secondary.
I'm excited for tomorrow morning. It feels like it's been forever since I made a thesis, and it has been too long since I've put on a trade. With that being said, I'll be sure not to just jump in the market tomorrow. I'll be on my best behavior.
"Usually when I first look at a chart, I can easily imagine where I think price is going to go next. I'm having a harder time in that respect, today. We may simply be in a range while we try to figure out what direction we want to go.. With that being said, the overall direction of the market is bullish [based on the weekly and daily chart alone].
Good entry locations from best to worst: 2972, 2973, ~2975.
So, my best option technically was to enter long at 2972 if the market gave that price to me. What happened instead, was price respected todays value area low out of the open, which was 2975.50 at the time. I recognized bearish weakness through the footprint as price interacted with the VAL. As soon as I saw this exhaustion-like behavior the first time around at 2975, I started re-considering entering there or around there, because volume was relatively low and the activity in the OrderFlow certainly called for it. After price bounced off of the VAL and came back down to it a second time, a surge of sellers came in that didn't affect price. This was another point in my favor. So, I established that I was going to enter, but I was going to fight for price:
So close, but so far away. I know I did the best I could, because had I of entered at 2977 or at a worse price, it would've been because of emotions/FOMO- not because of good judgement. I stuck to my plan and adapted to market circumstance. My ego says I can do better, and that I could've made this work, but it seems that whenever I listen to it, I change my approach based on the last trade. Best not to fall into that trap again and ruin my consistency.
Thesis + Set-up + OrderFlow + Fight for Price = A Fantastic Trading Decision. I won't lose sight of it!
You know, weeks ago I had allotted 2 hours in the morning to come up with a trading plan for the day, but I realized over the past couple of weeks that that's simply too long. I've found myself being unproductive after I write my thesis. Generally, I can come up with a trading plan in less than a half hour or so. For efficiency's sake, I've decided to cut that time in half, with the extra half hour being dedicated to potential thoroughness given more complicated market environments, or in-case I'm a little behind. If I find that I'm still wasting time even after this optimization, I'll experiment and perhaps halve it again. In place of the first hour of what was thesis generation, I've decided that I'm going to review the previous days trading and write out a specific goal for the day, based on my weakness from the day before. Doing so will refresh my mind and give me a target. Ideally, this behavior carried out overtime will build my skill as a trader.
I'm still looking for more things to incorporate into my pre-open trading routine that could help me improve. I don't want to waste time. I tried market replay in the morning to practice execution before actual trading, and I hated it. It takes too long for the data to reload, price action moves in second increments, it's just a bad experience in my opinion.. So that's off the table for me (sorry if I offended anybody that likes market replay in NT8). If you have any ideas, feel free to express yourself.
Definitely review your previous day's journal otherwise I think it makes it more difficult to learn from your previous efforts.
My journal includes a daily goal section (My goal, starting from yesterday, is to ensure that I complete my journal after my session as I have been a little lax too).
The part of my journal to fill in after the session has ten sections, including:
4. Was I Mindful of What I Was Doing? Was I Acting in My Own Best Interest?
5. Did I Break Any of My Trade Plan Rules Regarding: 1 Trade Entry/Exit Rules?
2 Permitted Trade Times?
3 Maximum Position Size or Reasonable Stop Loss?
6. Were Some of Today's Trades Placed or Missed Due to: 1 Fear of Loss / Hesitation?
2 Fear of Missing Out / Chasing Price?
3 Revenge / Impulse Trading?
8. What Things Did I Do Poorly on Today That I Am Going to Make a Concrete Effort to Change or Improve Tomorrow? How Am I Going to Do That?
9. What Things Did I Do Well Today That I Want to Continue Tomorrow?
And lastly I screen record my trading using BB Flashback Express https://www.flashbackrecorder.com/express/ , (free for the simple screen recorder without editing functionality). I spend an hour on that max simply scrolling through the video to my points of interest from the previous day, whether a time I missed an important change in the market that I want to learn from, or did some well that I want to examine to learn from and repeat. I find Flashback Express reasonably low on resources for recording one or two screens.
I prefer screen recording to replaying as replay I find for me becomes a competitive computer game but watching a video I can move backwards and forwards through and re-watch sections to be a much better learning experience.
You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
When I opened up NinjaTrader this morning, I saw this:
I initially had ~$442 to work with, but today I was billed for an inactivity fee, and I had to pay for my data feed.
Onto todays trade:
Pre-open prep: "In the daily chart, we're at a cross-roads. We've hit resistance on the way down (at ~2963), convieniently at the ATH peaks in the past.. This level has been traded around quite a bit, right before we reached the new ATH recently.. Technically, I see today's daily chart as a 50/50 proposition, directionally." I had a hard time visualizing where the market was going to go, like yesterday.
I also wrote: "The question is: What does price continue to do at 2963?.. If OTF breaks it through, I'm bearish on the daily. If price hits resistance at ~2955 (LVN, possibly a great buy) [I'd suspect range activity.]
Entry hunt:
Good short locations from best to worst: 2973, 2972, 2971
Good long locations from best to worst: 2962, 2963, 2963.5
After further deliberation in creating my thesis, I realized I was more uncomfortable with going long than I was going short, based on the daily chart. Really though, I had less conviction in my ideas given the weird position of price, so I wanted to just wait and see what happened at the open. I did have a short bias going into the open, and I was mindful of it.
Important:
The open came and after a couple of minutes, price turned bullish and advanced towards LVN 2973. Given the bullish strength, I sat on my hands and analyzed what was going on in the OrderFlow. Price bounced off of 2973 twice, and that's when it clicked that I needed to apply my strategy and short at 2973 next time price reached it. Part of me said to wait longer; to wait for 2973 to break and for stops to get hit, then enter around 2975. I didn't listen to that part of me, and instead went short at 2972.50 (moderately good price, little early) with my stop loss at 2974.50. Price went bullish after I entered, went silent, went bearish, then an influx of creeping buyers entered the market and I got stopped out for a 2 point loss:
After I got in, I felt like I was in a bad trade, but I've had that feeling with winners as well- so I just held it until I got stopped out.
The one thing I wish I did in real-time: Even though it too would've been a losing trade, I wish I listened to that part of me that said to wait until price reached 2975. This is because that part of me recognized some subtle cues in price that there was bullish strength. The reason I entered at 2972.50 is because it was an established good short price, with a mixture of FOMO.
Exercise in confirmation bias; what could I have done differently?: This just occurred to me. A technically better trade would've been based on if price tested 2973 from the downside once before recently, and I would've been there for the short of the 2nd test. I amalgamated the VAH of the open (2969.50) with the LVN 2973 and considered that test the third one of that general price level.
What I did well:
- Pre-open prep was great in that I spent a lot of time in trying to figure the macro out, although it was harder than usual. I was specific with my entry prices and considered both sides given the state of the market (I trade with the macro trend only).
What I did poorly:
- I didn't manage my stress enough while considering an entry while reading OrderFlow, and as a consequence, I didn't respond as rationally as I'm capable of.
- Technically (and according to my strategy, actually..) I should've waited for LVN 2973 to be tested fully and should've entered on apprehension of the second test. As mentioned earlier, I considered the VAH of the time and LVN 2973 to be one in the same mentally. Check it out:
What I need to do: - Heavily consider not trading when the macro picture is confusing. - Be more mindful of your interpretation of technical levels. LVNs should be tested at least twice locally- this was a strategical misfire. (I've never made this mistake before) - Work on managing stress in real-time trading. Look away from the screen for as long as it takes to calm down, and breathe. I'd be able to think logically, then.
Overall, despite some silly mistakes, it was great to be back in the market. I'm heavily considering just putting 3k in my account instead of messing around with $400. Would give me a lot more wiggle room.
"In the daily chart, price rejected 2963 and is now trading in the 2970's (written before 8:30am EST). I take this as a subtle bull signal. 2972 is now acting as support, as it was tested once this morning. With that being said, the daily picture isn't clear. My bias is long though, and entering around 2972 on the second test is an appealing idea [despite the macro picture].. Just a thought: Maybe we'll go into a wide range between 2972 and 2987. I wouldn't be surprised if we topped out at ~2982, either."
*Price rally happens at 8:30am*
[Adaptation] "Ideal situation: We hold above 2981.75, and either 2981.75 or 2987.50 get tested from the upside twice (and hold). I'd buy a re-test of either price."
As of 12:09pm EST I have taken no trades, and price has tested the 2987.50 area once. I'll be entering the next bounce off of that level, given a signal in the OrderFlow.
Also.. I deposited some money into my live trading account. I'll have plenty of wiggle room now, and maybe this will give me a real incentive to take this whole thing even more seriously.
Do not read this if you're malleable in your adoption of trading ideas.
"Finally, the daily chart makes sense to me, and is clearly bullish. Price managed to hold above yesterdays highest LVN, and in fact, it went higher overnight. Price bounced off of 2988.50 yesterday (I consider that an LVN test) once, price picked up again, bounced off of 2993.25, and it's been up-hill ever since. As for todays action, the most notable and relevant level is 3001. Price has bounced off of it twice, but on light volume. Will this level be respected at the open if we maintain this area? Considering it's the 3000 figure, psychologically, I imagine the bulls don't want price to fall below it (pure conjecture).
Entry locations from best to worst: 2987.5, 2988.5, 2933.25, 3001 (there's a bunch of variation in-between).
We're currently in a narrow range (~3001-~3007), but the range could be considered part of a wider range- not independent from it (referring to ~2987-~2990 to ~3000-~3007).
I could see ~3001 breaking, and I could see price going down to ~2994. I think this, because I think the 3000 figure as support is weak [conjecture isn't strong IMO]. At any rate, the top 3 recent support levels are viable levels to trade from and fit my strategy- if and only if the OrderFlow confirms it."..
Things are looking good technically, and I'm ready. As per my strategy, I'm primarily waiting to see the interaction at 3001, and if it holds strong, I'll go long. If not, I can trade at an even better price down below. Good luck everyone, do the right thing!
