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E3rcís Journal, The Road to Success
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E3rcís Journal, The Road to Success

 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
E3rc's Avatar
 
Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Updates
Took a bit of time off from studying charts, though I have a feeling it might hurt me a bit at the beginning of the week as I haven't been looking and learning from the charts. Though i did buy a book for $3 from Todd Lofton called Getting Started In Futures so we will see how that is. After reading the first couple of chapters, it is just a primer into what Futures are and how they work.

Pre Market
Not looking to active this morning, dunno where to place a high for the night, the candle base or the wick, I will for sure put a support line for the low, other than that it might be a slow day. Hopefully there will be some good trades today. I am also going to back fill my excel chart to make it current. Cause i did a little better at the end of the day on Friday.

Upon further investigation and me being still very new to this, the market is closed today. Double checked and confirmed at the NASDAQ Sites


Last edited by E3rc; February 18th, 2019 at 09:33 AM.
 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
E3rc's Avatar
 
Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Pre Market
I feel as though I recognize the pattern on this downtrend. Though as I write this and observe the market movement, the support level at ~2766 I have marked is holding. Beginning to think I might be working on information overload and wondering what to focus on. When looking at my stats, or the ones I am tracking, it seems with about 66 trades when I started tracking my win rate is only about 46%. Which is I am sure maybe average for someone new. Though to get more trades and I think I need to study market movement a bit more. Since my only trick is to trade off the middle line with the trend.

A lot of information and most people I read and watch to speak to me as a viable method to trade. Figuring what works for me...it is difficult.

Trades

1) Went for a trade premarket, as it had the triple test of support line, then got stopped. Ehh..

2) Seems like I have seen this lazy move up with the 2000 tick chart, just placed a market order and I am letting it go. My reasoning is, it looks like it will push up for a bit as I have seen this type of movement before. (1000) Update, so far so good, placed a stop at 2 Point mark so if it does go south, it is still a green trade. Placed Limit to take $250. Filled + 5

3) Looks like I can re-enter for scalp. Entered and thought I could ride again. Nope, stopped and took loss.

4) Opening Reversal, now looking like a downward movement, made a LH. Stopped out. (To close maybe more breathing room was needed or is market sideways and I was just a the middle)

Done for the morning -$0 (win loss 1/4, 25% Win)

Thoughts
Guessing if this was my real money, it wouldn't have been that bad, all that is basically lost is commissions. I will probably stare at the charts for a but and go back to watching more about Al Brooks, yet another that seems to have a influence around here. Maybe the afternoon hours there might be more setups I can see and use.

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Last edited by E3rc; February 19th, 2019 at 11:12 AM.
 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received


Thoughts and mental musings
I didn't trade at all on the 20th, too busy dealing with snow. Though I read a lot more about Al Brooks and am having a bit of a mental shift. I started off trading a time chart then switched to a tick chart. Most of the videos I watched seem to gravitate to the tick chart as you see the transactions unfold, you can see the price action in motion so to speak. I also moved from a 610 to the 2000 to gleen more from the Mack way of trading. Now that I have performed almost 100 trades and am about 43% successful and my paper account really hasn't grown much either about $200 overall which can be seen by line 1 and looking at the last paper balance entry on the excel sheet when I post it. All the trades I have made to that point are hidden and just the day I am on is showing.

I am going to change my time variable to a 5 min chart, but keep everything else the same. Same 3/10 Oscillator and Keltner with the outer ATR set to 2.25. I am changing the time to slow down my trades a bit more so I hopefully don't freak out at certain drastic changes and to hopefully see overall movement better. Think I need some better chart theory to spot reactions to movement, but still going to put in the chart time and watch the market move. Learning more and more each day, it will be long fought but worth it.

Pre-Market
Into a nice downtrend from the night, now looking at a 5 min chart and keeping other things the same. I see a nice divergent happening and a possible change of direction. Marking the high from the night as well.

Trades
1) Opening Bell down to a support line I had at 2777, moved off that and showing a bull bar now, left a long shadow. Broke below and placing limit order on 2777 to go short and is filled. Placing stop at top of previous candle wick. Win + 2

2) Still moving down, in a very strong trend. Though on the 0950 bar that is developing still has stopped the movement. Made a low doji candle and made a bull candle buying the top. Stopped (think I need more room with this type of trading) -1

3) Placing Stop Buy at top of bear candle, seeing a lot of wicks to go lower, but not succeeding. Stop buy filled, not moving up more. Closed position. - 3

-Dunno, I might be done, watching more to see if I can understand this better.

4) Price seems to be reversing pushing up past middle line now. Going long stop limit filled above 2775 area, placed stop at candle bodies bottoms from earlier (2772). Looking to take 2 times risk for profit, so take profit at 2781. Lets give this long game a try. Feeling like the low of the day has happened. - Stopped out - 3

End of Day
Well I kept trying, and really didn't care for how the trades worked and I don't think I know enough to make it effective enough. I was down about -$525, trying to make these large trades work. risking what I thought was 1:1 or 1:2 which was about 3 points of risk and kept trying for a win of 3 points cause 6 points wasn't working. Any who just wasn't feeling that and since I as loosing figured why not and try something else. 2000 Tick and 5 Minute charts take a while to develop, remembering how much quicker other time frames where I switched back down to 610 Tick and also change from a Candle to a Heikin Ashi, which presents itself a bit better in my eye. With that I tried a new tactic as well, the 1:1 of 1 point of risk and 1 point of profit. Somehow, it worked in my favor and my loss went from -$525 to about -$125. My account is at where I started basically when I started tracking my trades too. My afternoon session is just filled with trades now. There's a lot of commission to be paid with this type of trading, but it got results. Completed about 14 trades, with only 3 losses, a better win rate over all than what I normally do (~79% win rate). Defiantly got me out of my funk and maybe I can adapt this.

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Last edited by E3rc; February 21st, 2019 at 05:31 PM.
 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
E3rc's Avatar
 
Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Pre-Market
Looks like it could be sideways today. Though I think I am going to try for what I did yesterday, which really seems easier to trade and basically can be attributed to if it is above the EMA, go long and enter on periods of regression when it is nearing exhaustion. Basically when the candle is small and shoot for 1 point of gain.

Trades
Well that was an utter shamble of a trade session. Felt like I was doing exactly what I was doing yesterday. Though it started going bad for me around 1010 ish then it turned into a range. When it goes from trend to range like today, it really gets me. I need to find a way to make it stand out more. Maybe that, or it is something else.

Anyways I am done for the day -$450. I know there is an answer somewhere around here. Everything I have read about trading is no joke, this is hard.

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Elite Member
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Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Musings:
I didn't do anything at all with regards to chart reading or books, hoping taking some down time and taking a weekend away would help my mind with a hope that I will see something that will present itself.

Pre-Market
Looks like the 2800 level I have been seeing a few people talk about has been broken, trending up for most of the night looks like too. I think at these levels there will be more chop than normal, as this is an emotional level. I am not sure how to trade this, I keep trying out new things to see what works for me. I think the flavor now is trying out a Stochastic and change the tick ranges based on how much the market moves or doesn't move. Trying this with Heikin Ashi bars and my ye' ol trade off the EMA/Middle line.

Trades:
Using a 233 Tick chart, the market does move much faster and things setup in a hurry at the market open. Though I am going though a lot of trades (13 as I type this, + $250 P/L), I am sure a broker would love the commissions but the account growth is much slower this way. Trading with the trend and off the middle line has been good. Though it seems like I can place a limit order better to catch the movement. I would need to practice this more and I think I am lucky today that there are good moving trends. Using a 1:1 risk.

Done for now +$350 P/L and $233 account gain (win-loss 12/17 70% Win)

Afternoon Trades
Taking it "easy" and looking for entries that come close to the middle line and show a bit of a slow down, the doji look to the candle. Doing well, though again it is a lot of trades where I take small chunks as wins. I will post the chart later with what happened and the trades that happened. At this point +$550 on P/L and $378 account gain. Win loss is 18/25 for a 72% win rate.

18/25


Last edited by E3rc; February 25th, 2019 at 02:23 PM.
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Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Pre-Market
Looking like the low has been hit for the session in the overnight trading and the 2800 level is back in to be tested once more today. Seeing more entries for my self using the 233 tick chart and i tried for a few trades and have done okay +$50 out of 3 trades, with 2 being winners.

Trades
Trying to repeat my performance seems very hit or miss. The quicker movement is nice to see what is happening, but it seems that extra movement mask certain larger aspects, such as getting into a sideways movement. There was a couple trades that didn't work out for me as my attention got diverted or I didn't get my stop placed quick enough and the market just took off and I didn't want to wait to see if it was just a smaller movement of the overall larger movement.

As I look for entries off the EMA it seems like the movement of the market will just hover around that for a few bars then reverse and not continue the trend it was doing. The 2800 level is an area with some strong resistance today, as the market approaches it defiantly gets rejected, though I am not sure how many more test it can take before it is broken. It had at least 1 for sure entry before going back down.

Morning session not going to well, at a P/L of -137.50 and account is down 302.14, kind of over trading as 24 have been made.

 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Pre-Market
I haven't even poked my head into the market till around 1030. Just trying to find a "truth" or some logic that worked and was wanting more consistency and I made some more dumb trades and lost quite a bit. Think I was around -1000 loss, I know not real money, but it just reinforces how little I actually know. Ended up trying 2 contacts with trying to get smaller gains and shoot for a +1 point gain, well that didn't go well. Think my surprise of the day was taking a short on last 15 mins of market hours. That worked in my favor, somehow. I took it from reading this which I think someone around here pointed out in another thread. Was not sure if he means the actual market ES being up/down a percentage, but I ended looking at the main GSPC which was showing a negative % and the trade worked.

Trades
I have only made one trade today, on the 2000 Tick chart, after looking at a 5 Min and 15 Min, saw the downtrend and the low of day, saw the market coming back and rolling over the EMA, entered and looked to take profit at a possible double bottom at the 2776.50 level. Success! +4 and $400 made.

End of Day
Watching the 2000 tick chart, it looked like a beautiful day to trade. Looks like there might have been a few times that a trade I would have engaged in might have been stopped out. Though if I kept at it, a decent green day with hardly any chop to it what so ever. Since I just watched the chart after making the decent trade I made this morning. I saw a recommendation of reading AHG - Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders this is my new favorite quote:


Quoting 
2) Spot the Entry
Do we have one ? Should we have one ? Use your tools for confirmation, not the other way around.
Your eyes go 90% of the time on price. Specifically on those highs and lows.



Last edited by E3rc; February 27th, 2019 at 03:08 PM.
 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

Pre-Market
Decided not to look again, so far when I try to look at pre-market doing so doesn't seem to help me over all during the day. Started around 1015 so the market could develop a bit.

Trades
Came in in a downward trend, using the previous high at 2792.50 as the marker for the high of day. Market looked like it was making test off the middle line. That was stopped out.

Seems like it made a larger retracement and is not going to continue down, placed limit at bottom of previous candle. Filled then stopped. Note: did not reach previous candle that made a LH for the overall trend.

Loosing too much and it seems choppy/sideways now -$262 with 7 trades, with 1 win.

Musings:
I know my plan to trade off the EMA in a trend does work, there are trades that I can show that are successful. It is when it goes from the trend to consolodation is where I begin to lose. Since I am trying to get trades off the EMA when it changes it travels into an area that stops me out. Then I try trading it the same way I would a trend. This is one of my issues that I need to figure out how to trade better. Right now it has been going between a range ~2790 down to ~2784.50.

Continuing to watch now, it is trending upward so I should be able to make a profitable trade from it. Waiting for Stochastic Slow to get down to the 20 line and cross over to make an long entry. Also noting that the high is also waiting for this trend. Price eventually reached the EMA, though the Stoch didn't get close to the 20 line. Another setup possibly with the price coming to meet the EMA.

Trying to find videos of people making trades based off a system are very few and far between. Once in a while there are those selling their trading system might post something that shows them taking a trade. Figure with Ninja Trader's ability to market replay or something similar, a walk though can be created. Like have the market play and using the different ways to trade, show how maybe. That or there is something more to it that cannot be shown in such a way? Ehh, if I can get successful and want to teach I would educate in that manner. I am sure this idea exist, since there a lot of ideas I have had over the years seem to have come true.


Last edited by E3rc; February 28th, 2019 at 01:01 PM.
 
 
Elite Member
Thurmont, MD
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received

A New Plan
Doing what looks like is very common for someone new to trading. I went exploring for a new plan or idea. I thought I had a plan, but it wasn't refined all that much, so here goes a new plan:

Trading the ES on a simulated account to gain accuracy.

1) Chat setup will be a 2000 Tick chart, with observations to a 5 Min and 15 Min chart to verify an over all trend. Keltner Channels will be used to show a possible price range. Also, a Stochastic Slow Indicator with K and, D set to 3, the overbought being 80 and oversold being 20 being used to show possible entry points.

2) A trade will be executed on the following circumstances: Verified uptrend will be, price movement above the EMA within the keltner channel and can show a support line drawn from previous lower low to a lower high. A verified downtrend will be price movement below the EMA within the keltner channel and can show a resistance line drawn from a previous lower hi higher low to a lower high. A sideways market with be when the price achieves a level close or equal to a previous high or low.

2.1) A long will be taken when the price is close to the EMA and the K line is close to the 20 line and then crosses over the D line.

2.2) Alternatively a trade long could be entered with the K crosses the D line at or above the 20 Line. Provided the Que at the price point is above 400 waiting orders.

2.3) A short will be taken when the price is close to the EMA and the K line is close to the 80 line and then crosses over the D line.

2.4) Alternatively a trade short could be entered with the K crosses the D line at or above the 80 Line. Provided the Que at the price point is above 400.

3) Trades will be taken with a 1:2 ratio, or on the ES, 1 point of risk for 2 points of gain.

Trades
Placed only 2 trades thus far since the market opened using the rules I have above. So far i am up $200 with a 100%
Win rate at the moment.

In a 3rd trade right now that is in the process of working as I type this. Another success. Now up $300 and 100% win rate.

I will follow this plan a bit more if the market cooperates.

 
 
Elite Member
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Trading Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 38 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 4 given, 8 received


Trades

Using the method I have prescribed already, I will take trades according to those rules.

Well, that didn't go so well...every trade a loss. I knew what I was going to try wasn't fool proof, but dang, didn't keep me out of trouble on the open hour.

- Done for the day, loss of ~$325 for the day after 6 trades 0/6 0% Win for the day.

End of the Day
Upon further review, it looks like I only follow my rule for 3 trades. The 1st. 4th and 6th trades where according to my rules. The 2nd trade was my limit order I didn't move far enough away, thinking it would bounce off the line and head up a bit more for a scalp. The 3rd trade I thought I could grab off the lower 20 line when it was showing the lines cross. The 5th was a revenge trade I think.

Note: Stick with the plan and maybe start trading after 1030.

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