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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream
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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream

  #51 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 2 since Oct 2018
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

As someone in the similar stages of futures trading as you, when do you plan on going live? I am currently collecting data on my setups and trying to gather the win rate for each. It seems like you are doing the same, so I was wondering how much data are you going to draw the line at. I'm thinking 50 trades / a month's worth of trading should be enough for me to have confidence in my system.

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  #52 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received


apex128 View Post
As someone in the similar stages of futures trading as you, when do you plan on going live? I am currently collecting data on my setups and trying to gather the win rate for each. It seems like you are doing the same, so I was wondering how much data are you going to draw the line at. I'm thinking 50 trades / a month's worth of trading should be enough for me to have confidence in my system.

Hey fellow rookie! I was just thinking about this. For me, I'm not really keeping a time frame for going live. At this point my system is in the development phase. Like you I'm collecting information and I'm also trying to determine if my methodology has any degree of profitability. As of yet, I'm not sure. I think I'll make a few live trades as soon as I have SOME confidence that I won't just be handing out free cash.

But for now just simming. I feel like sim has been a pretty valuable experience. Some leaks were immediately exposed, corrective action has been taken and it is becoming increasingly more clear which setups actually work. And it's been FREE!

But I've read that there is such thing as over-simming. I don't know what that looks like at this point. What has your experience been? Are you happy with your data?

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  #53 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 2 since Oct 2018
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Salao View Post
But I've read that there is such thing as over-simming. I don't know what that looks like at this point. What has your experience been? Are you happy with your data?

I don't have a whole lot of data at the moment because I have been working on developing the setups up until now, and am just recently starting to actually grind out trades for the sake of calculating win / loss. I found that having your rules as clearly defined as possible helps get rid of those psychological errors that seem to account for most peoples' trading failure. I won't have that much money to open a live account with, so I am hoping that by having good reliable data I can trust I will be eliminating most psychological factors from trading.


Last edited by apex128; February 6th, 2019 at 02:08 AM.
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  #54 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received


apex128 View Post
Hey fellow rookie! I was just thinking about this. For me, I'm not really keeping a time frame for going live. At this point my system is in the development phase. Like you I'm collecting information and I'm also trying to determine if my methodology has any degree of profitability. As of yet, I'm not sure. I think I'll make a few live trades as soon as I have SOME confidence that I won't just be handing out free cash.

But for now just simming. I feel like sim has been a pretty valuable experience. Some leaks were immediately exposed, corrective action has been taken and it is becoming increasingly more clear which setups actually work. And it's been FREE!



I don't have a whole lot of data at the moment because I have been working on developing the setups up until now, and am just recently starting to actually grind out trades for the sake of calculating win / loss. I found that having your rules as clearly defined as possible helps get rid of those psychological errors that seem to account for most peoples' trading failure. I won't have that much money to open a live account with, so I am hoping that by having good reliable data I can trust I will be eliminating most psychological factors from trading.

I'm right there with you man. I'm discovering new psychological errors daily! I think you're right about having clearly defined rules. I've been trying to keep my rules list as short as possible for two reasons. 1: to keep it simple 2: avoid creating rules that create negative p/l...because I don't know what I don't know. I'm having a blast learning though.

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  #55 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
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Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
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add'l prep


Salao View Post
I left a short on into the close on ES. Ill add to the short position if it can get back up to ~2734...probably will close if it gets through this level with any conviction. I'll trail a wide stop when I go to bed if I still have a position on. Tentative target of ~2727. I don't feel THAT comfortable with this short. But maybe I should...Actually I don't feel THAT comfortable on any trade. And I'm using fake money!

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I ended up taking that short off, so I'm flat ES now. I am having a hard time taking this short even though a nice divergence on a 2ROC:

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RTY looked weaker to me so I put my short on there at 1519.7

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  #56 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
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Here's how that trade turned out. +33 ticks.

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I downloaded the ninja trader demo. So I've been messing around with it. No prep work for tomorrow. I'll be too busy at work anyhow.

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  #57 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
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Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received

prep

Didn't trade today. Too much work and too much trying to figure out the ninja trader software. This looks like a long setup though. If it wants to break through that $52.50 line i'll have to wait around a little longer though and I'll be looking for a short. I bet it bounces up tonight...

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  #58 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
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Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received

add'l prep

I really want support to form above 2693.50 so I can put a long on. Will have to re-evaluate if support is not formed...

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  #59 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received

Feb. 8--Paper trading

-11ticks/day. ES broke that ~2693 and thrashed around pretty good. It was my first bracketing day where I traded most the session. I was down pretty huge at one point but was able to get some back near the end of the day. I noticed the trading became more difficult from a mental standpoint after I had been down huge and had recovered to the point where I was approaching BE. The closer I got to BE the more dumb I would get. I need to not let that affect my trading.

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  #60 (permalink)
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 64 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 48 given, 40 received

Ninjatrader 8


I really like NinjaTrader but my only hesitation about the lifetime license is that they only have two broker options. Has anybody had any bad experiences with Dorman or Phillip, or are they generally pretty good? I tried Sierra Chart and it seems pretty good too and they have more broker options.

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