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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream
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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream

  #41 (permalink)
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Market Profile?

I've been reading a lot about market profile and I am considering using it to plan my day. It seems like it organizes information in such a way that would bring more clarity to my trade planning, at least more clarity than the 'system' I currently trade. I'll be doing some studying this weekend to incorporate it into my pre-trade planning for next week.

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  #42 (permalink)
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So I've been doing homework using market profile to plan ahead. I thought this crude chart was interesting. It looks like initiative buying over January's VAH (that's the line just under $54.40). It held Friday's VAH, but kind of broke down at the weekly VAH (broken green line). Ideally I'd like to see some strength over the weekly VAH and buy a pull back into the $53.40 neighborhood. Crude looks strong so I'll be be avoiding the short side for sure--at least I don't envision a short set-up. Wouldn't mind discussing with a profile enthusiast or one of the CL traders out there...


Last edited by Salao; February 2nd, 2019 at 04:37 PM. Reason: clarity
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  #43 (permalink)
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Results, 3 weeks paper trading...



Salao View Post
About two weeks of paper trading my system in ES:

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Strat 1 has a win rate of 85% by itself. My other 4 strategies have a win rate of 25% combined.

I'll have to do a better job of documenting my market reads in this journal. But I suspect I have more of a clear market thesis during Strat 1 entries...at least relative to my other strategies. Three of the remaining four strategies are attempts to catch a pull back during a trend. So I suspect my entries during these trades are sloppy due to FOMO...obviously, at least thus far, my market reads for the 3 ineffective strategies have been wrong. During execution of these strategies I think my thought process is limited to watching the market for an opportunity to get in, while remaining blind to the reasons I should stay out. It's either this or the strategies are just losers.

At any rate...small sample size so far.

I put in a lot of work on my trading plan this weekend mostly pertaining to pre-execution routine (market read, organize info, etc) and STOPs. I will be testing this part of my plan as well. I will be testing to see if my pre-execution routine is repeatable, keeps me loose, mitigates the influence of emotion (yeah I know it will be difficult to do during paper trade), makes money, etc.

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As you can see there was a big performance drop off this week. I did some pretty dumb stuff. I'm pretty sure it was a result of ineffective planning and a lack of clarity. I'm into the trading plan this weekend to improve my planning process. I don't believe I've proven an edge so far. No immediate plans to go live yet.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Salao View Post
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So I've been doing homework using market profile to plan ahead. I thought this crude chart was interesting. It looks like initiative buying over January's VAH (that's the line just under $54.40). It held Friday's VAH, but kind of broke down at the weekly VAH (broken green line). Ideally I'd like to see some strength over the weekly VAH and buy a pull back into the $53.40 neighborhood. Crude looks strong so I'll be be avoiding the short side for sure--at least I don't envision a short set-up. Wouldn't mind discussing with a profile enthusiast or one of the CL traders out there...

The more I think about this the more I see the OBVIOUS potential short. I guess it could build resistance at the weekly VAH and breakdown. In this scenario I'd target of ~$54.40. I'll def. skip the short side trade though...Anyhow, this is just for MY OWN good. I'm not trying to make a market call to look smart. In fact it is probable that i'll look dumb at EOD tomorrow. I'm just documenting a pre-market read so I can review the analysis later. And I'm always open for critique, discussion.

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  #45 (permalink)
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Homework--paper trading 6E

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I'll be looking to long in if this can tag 1495 again...

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But I'm aware of this 3 bar coil on the daily, which is quite frankly, causing some cog dis. I'll stick to my plan to trade from the long side only for now.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Day 11--Paper trading

Overtraded the ES today...ugh...

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  #47 (permalink)
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6E: Looking to be short around 14800. If there is a rally I would like some support to be built up near 14865 before entering long.

CL: I'd like to be long around 54.50, but if no support I'll need to look for a short entry with a tentative target of 53.11.

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  #48 (permalink)
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Watching to see if support will hold at 2712 for a long, will wait for a short entry if broken...

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  #49 (permalink)
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Day 12--Paper trading

Today was my 12th session trading futures (paper trading) and I think I'm starting to develop a sense of what doesn't work. I discovered patience works pretty well! Today I discovered that I should trade the plan I drew up the night before. If I would have traded my plan, I would have had a really good day. I still ended up OK thanks to a breakdown of the rally in ES.

The ES had traded up to ~3sd (weekly). This fact alone wasn't enough to give me the confidence to fade the rally. I didn't pull the trigger until I saw the RTY selling off pretty hard. At that point I thought there was a decent chance for a nice trade.

This journal is the only place where I write out my plan for the following day So I think I'm going to start printing it out every night for easier access.

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  #50 (permalink)
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Prep


I left a short on into the close on ES. Ill add to the short position if it can get back up to ~2734...probably will close if it gets through this level with any conviction. I'll trail a wide stop when I go to bed if I still have a position on. Tentative target of ~2727. I don't feel THAT comfortable with this short. But maybe I should...Actually I don't feel THAT comfortable on any trade. And I'm using fake money!

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