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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream
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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream

 
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (April 18, 2019): /ESM9 - current expectancy = (12.0000 * 0.6875) - (8.00 * 0.3125) = 5.7500 ticks
 
Posts: 196 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 279 given, 259 received


Quoting 
One trade today in ES, one winner for +20t.

Great trade!


Quoting 
The MFE was about 6 points...So my profit target worked out pretty well for me at this stage of the game.

I just started learning about MFE and MAE last night, going to go dig into that some more now instead of starting at sim. Keep the good trades going!

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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 5

I didn't have very much time with the markets today. I had to be out the door even before the open so I was looking for a scalp only. I didn't find one on the ES so no trades on ES today. Two trades on CL, sim mode, two winners for +49t.

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Emini: The bull breakout at the 535 (PDT) bar (red arrow'd), looked like it could be off a higher low. But there was no follow through immediately after the breakout. I decided against scalping the pull back. I didn't think there would be enough meat on that bone, but it ended up retracing almost that entire breakout bar. The next best trade would have been a buy of the 645 bar close for a scalp, but I was off to work at that point.

CL:

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I don't really trade crude, but I've been watching it lately. It seems to have a skosh more volatility during globex hours. Which might come in handy considering my work schedule. I decided to sim trade this market for learning...and to not lose my @$$.

Trade 1: Bought long on what could be a double bottom reversal at the 500 bar. It could have also been just another bull leg in a trading range. I suspected there might be a nice move afoot after the 515 bear bar finished so minuscule. I entered on a buy stop a tick above the 525 bar. And the market raced up ~25t or so. I exited on a generic ATM setting I had set. No MM target this time, I was scalping. I took a rather healthy +24t scalp .

Trade 2: There was a nine bar bull breakout. I'm buying the pull back. The pull back ended up retracing 50% to the exact tick. I bought the close of the first bear bar in the pull back. And the next leg, of what became a trend, was on. I flattened the trade because I had to go to work. +25t.


Last edited by Salao; April 6th, 2019 at 11:17 AM.
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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 8


One quick trade on ES this morning, 1 winner, +17t.

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The trade: There was a reversal on Sunday night. The reversal was near the bull trendline, two measured move targets (that I could identify at least), and the big 2900 round number. I entered short on a globex trading range breakout and exited on a measured move target. Emini is probably going lower for the day, or at least for another leg. But I've got to hit the road. +17t.

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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 9

I don't have much time to trade this morning. I took one trade on CL, 1 winner, +1t.

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I thought there could be one more quick push down in this bear trend. I went short after the 530 (PDT) bar touched the 60m 20EMA. It appeared that there were sellers in the vicinity. But the next two bars threw off tails leading me to think a trading range was getting more and more likely. I was probably too quick to exit this trade. Trading crude gives me the heebee-jeebees, to be honest. If the trade doesn't go in my direction quickly, I begin to feel like a cornered animal. And that kind of neurosis is not fun before 600 am! Happy trading all!


Last edited by Salao; April 9th, 2019 at 09:03 AM. Reason: grammar
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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 10

Two trades on ES, 1 loser and 1 scratch, -12t.

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Trade 1: Sold the 540 bear breakout bar with a sell stop 1 tick below a tight trading range. It looked like a trend reversal. The 535 bar probed up and found sellers. It also created a double top. The bear breakout bar was followed by 4 bull bars. I flattened on the 605 bear bar (it was more like a doji with a small bear body). It looked as if the bulls were in driver's seat at this point. -12t.

Trade 2: Sold again at 615. At this time we had a double top, a lower low, a lower high and a couple nice bear bars. And I still did not get my breakout. I bought back my short at 655 on a make-good trading range doji. Scratch.

Sometimes I get caught up looking for a breakout when, in most cases, the trading range is likely to resume. It's a bit of a blind spot for me. Also my STOP was never tagged so there was no reason to take the loss on trade 1. A little more patience and I get out of this unscathed.

The following 3 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
 
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 11

Finally I'm able to get my journal in...One trade this morning on ES, 1 "winner", +1t.

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The trade: The ES looked like a truly 50/50 market at the open. It looked like a nice looking double top had formed overnight with two touches at 2900. Today was the third, maybe fourth time, ES hit resistance at 2900 which, in my view, makes a case for a potential bear breakout. BUT, the bulls had a nice bull channel that began April ~9. I thought it likely that the market would remain within the channel. Also, yesterday was a nice bull bar on the daily chart and I was anticipating a follow-through bar for today. So I thought it reasonable to put my 1-lot in with the bulls near my bull channel trend line at 2896 I put my STOP in 1 tick below that last major low at 2889.75. I almost instantly hated this trade! The next bar, 640, was a healthy looking bear bar that found sellers at an unfolding bear trend line. I wanted to be short so bad here. I held onto my long and watched as the trading range respected the bull channel trend line. It would do this for about an hour until the bulls gave up. I was able to get out of this trade ~45 minutes later on a push back up to the top of the trading range. +1t.

The following 2 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
 
Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 12

One trade on ES, 1 'winner', +1t.

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There was a bull breakout and channel up. I entered long after a test of the 20EMA on the 545 bar at 2910.25. Instead of immediate trend resumption, the market went sideways to down for the next ten bars. This left me plenty of time to think about wonderful things like gap fills and other worse-case scenarios . There was another breakout bar at 640. I was looking for a MM up to 2917.25. And it might happen. But I don't have time to watch it get there. So, I should have exited on the 650 bear bar. I watched ES retrace the entire 650 bull breakout. I flattened the trade on a bounce up from a trend line test. +1t.

This weekend I need to consider the impact time limitation has on profit expectation. Maybe I just don't have the time to swing trade ES in the morning. Probably need to consider scalp only. Today was disappointing. But it was a green week! Off to sit in traffic...

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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 15

I had time to get some trades in today. 4 trades on ES. 3 winners and 1 loser for +6t. Two trades on CL, two winners, +8.

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ES:

Trade 1: There was a bear leg from the open. I sold 1 tick below a bear bar (710) in a pull back. Good entry...bad exit. I wasn't sure if this was going to reverse here. The bull bars in this pull back (a bear flag ultimately) were relatively small which should have been a good sign that another leg lower was pretty likely. +2t.

Trade 2: I re-entered this trade 1 tick below the low of the bear flag. Good entry...bad exit. I should have been good with two legs. But I thought we were going to get a final leg down and a test below 2900. Nope. The second leg got down to 2900.75. I exited 4 bull bars later. +6t.

Trade 3: I Bought the close of a bull reversal, I was spooked when there were two attempts to break above the EMA that failed. Dumb. +1t.

Trade 4: I Bought a breakout below a tight bull channel. Good entry...bad exit. Exited after the bulls had disappeared. WTF? Immediately after I exited There was a move back up into the mid-part of the bull channel. . -3t.

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CL

Trade 1: I bought a bull bar after a selling climax held support at the base of the April 8 breakout. Good entry...bad exit. I could have just held this trade for the rest of the day. But sold out early. Because that's what today is all about for me. +7t.

Trade 2: I bought a pull back in a bear trend. My thesis was that if CL could get a breakout bar, there would be trapped bears which could accelerate the rally a bit. The fat was in the fire. But no bull breakout came. I exited on a breakout below two inside bars. I'm OK with this trade. +1t.


I'm happy with my trade entries. But I'm having a hard time maximizing these opportunities by exiting poorly. I'm not sure if I need to spend some time in SIM to iron this problem out. Or if I just need more live experience. I'm not sure if this is a market environment thing, or if it's a Salao thing. They make it pretty hard to get money doing this .

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Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream-capture68.png   Salao's Journal--Skiff on the Gulf Stream-capture69.png  
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Elite Member
Riverside CA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader, TD
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, RTY
 
Posts: 135 since Jun 2017
Thanks: 351 given, 168 received

April 16

3 trades on ES today. 1 winner, 2 scratch for +9t.

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Trade 1: I entered short in the upper portion of a trading range/bear flag at 2917.50. I liked the short side of the market because it looked like there was selling pressure during the globex trading range AND that 650 bear breakout looked like a good signal too. Another bad exit for me...I took profit at 2915.25. This was before my MM target was hit, but I think I flattened because of a potential reversal bar. Blah! +9t.

Trade 2: I realized I was being dumb. And if you are going to be an accidental scalper you need to get back into the direction of the trend. I re-entered at 2913.25 after a doji bar closed well below its mid-point (740 bar). Now start the clown show...Shortly after I entered I realized that if I re-draw my measured move target using the top of the bear breakout to the breakout low, you get a target at 2912.50. And it looked like clear profit taking at this level. Flattened on the mistake. Blah! Scratch.

Trade 3: I entered on the long side (2914) after a selling climax, a reversal (ish) bull bar, and potential for an upside reversal after a breakout attempt into yesterday's range. This would be a First Entry reversal trade. The more I thought about this I began to realize that first entries have the potential to be disastrous for my account right now. For the past two weeks I have been inadvertently getting scalpers profits. This infers that I've been taking high probability trades with low payout (Not always the case, but best case scenario we'll say). Now, assuming a scalpers profit REWARD (until I fix my clearly damaged mental condition I need to assume ~scalpers-profit), taking lower probability first entries carries a losing expectation. I can take second entries with better probability until I improve my maths--specifically the REWARD variable of the trader's equation. I can't be profitable taking lower probability, higher reward entries until I prove I can get the higher REWARD. Anyway, the trading range persisted for another 10 bars+ and I exited on a make-good-bull-bar back up to the top of the range. Scratch.

The following 2 users say Thank You to Salao for this post:
 
 
Elite Member
Chicago
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Favorite Futures: (April 18, 2019): /ESM9 - current expectancy = (12.0000 * 0.6875) - (8.00 * 0.3125) = 5.7500 ticks
 
Posts: 196 since Feb 2019
Thanks: 279 given, 259 received



Salao View Post
I can't be profitable taking lower probability, higher reward entries until I prove I can get the higher REWARD

Same here, learning that the hard way. Congrats on the good outcome!

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