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Kewltech-ish TA
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Kewltech-ish TA

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Kewltech-ish TA

Trading KewlTech has been too discretionary for me since I like having set and forget trades. However, the market structure and knowledge that Kewltech teaches is invaluable if somewhat indecipherable. In one of the compiled PDFs there is a Course Summary by Unknown which helps to cement Kewltech's teachings. I thought I'd create a journal where I review the market. Please note that all these charts are analyzed in hindsight and I'm not currently taking any trades off of them.

/ES 2584T - 12/28/18 - New York Session

Since the markets are closed. We must go backwards. 12/28 was more of a trade the naked chart day using standard technical analysis. However, the general teachings of Kewltech apply. On the higher timeframe, we are distributing. This doesn't matter too much as long as we stay within the confines of a supply and demand zone as we are essentially trading the chop. The most difficult thing was identifying the supply and demand zones. Were we able to do that, we could then frame the market in a way that makes it easier to trade. For example, if we broke a supply zone early in the morning without signs of stopping, we could adjust our bias for a strong trend day. If price failed to do that, we could keep a range bound bias.

Trading the compressed channels and wedges, using MACD as entry confirmation would have resulted in entering far too late and wouldn't have have been useful for entries. However, using crossovers as an exit signal was still useful as it allowed us to trade through the chop and ride trends. However, we would have still been exiting late on smaller chart patterns. This isn't as bad as entering late--assuming we've identified a valid pattern--because we can still use a tighter stop in the event the pattern fails or we were wrong. On another note, using the MACD as general momentum was useful in giving us confidence in our market bias.

In the morning we had a channel and wedge form. Before we can trade channels and wedges, we need to identify that they have formed. The blue dots represent areas where we are still discovering the patterns. Without conflunece such as a supply/demand zone we wouldn't want to trade these blindly (This is why I don't like using oscillators because they tend to lie as often as they tell the truth). Please refer to the chart for my logic on entries and exits. I included 1 chart with approximate tick values and a clean chart.

Despite the market being volatile and seemingly random, it is still efficient in that things aren't happening randomly. The market is still moving purposefullly.

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Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
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/ES 2584T - 01/02/19 - New York Session

Today was basically a big bear channel (that failed), a small bear channel, and a bull wedge all sandwiched within 2 supply and 2 demand zones. Even if we didn't identify the additional zones--that were there on the 60 minute days in advance--the Globex session identified them for us. The previous demand zone was lost and became a temporary supply zone, but became a demand zone again during NY session. Market started with a channel, but we wouldn't have known that until almost an hour into the session. From there we could take trades off the channel. The big bear channel breaks down but fails to break further and creates a minor support that is retested at the close of the session.

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For a messier chart with potential trade entries and exits.. look at the attached chart below.

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Was preoccupied yesterday and didn't get to do my market review until today.

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Today was a little funky because I think of Jobs and Fed. The channels, wedges, trendlines were distorted and either failing or not completing. However, I did see a lot of divergences and trading them with support/resistance could have been do-
able.

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I missed a first touch of resistance becoming support. See if you can spot it :P


Here is the divergence cheat sheet that i use. I have multiple copies printed out so I am constantly reminded of them. Here is an exercise: look at the places that I marked divergence on the chart and name the type that they are.

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Have a great weekend!


Last edited by trepidation; January 5th, 2019 at 06:42 PM. Reason: didn't mark up 1 potential trade. expanded on divergence
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Issue #01

The markets aren't open on the weekend. Instead of looking back and reviewing previous days, I thought I would share my summaries of KewlTech's Issues. I've taken some liberties and applied my interpretation to them, but I draw heavily from KewlTech's teachings and I think that you'll find them useful as I've tried to distill his teachings into actionable information. Here is Issue #01:

There are two primary types indicators that sit below the price chart: they are momentum indicators and oscillating indicators. Momentum indicators are considered lagging indicators and oscillators are considered leading indicators. Momentum indicators are typically unbounded while oscillators are typically bounded typically between 100% to -100%. This allows oscillators (leading indicators) to identify extreme conditions. However, leading indicators are a bit of a misnomer as their ability to predict the future is limited by circumstance. For example, in an extended uptrend, leading indicators will consistently be in an extreme condition and will continuously provide false signals. The indicators that KewlTech uses are MACD and Slow Stochastic. The MACD is a momentum indicator and the Slow Stochastic is an oscillator. Put another way, the MACD is a lagging indicator and the slow stochastic is a leading indicator. These two indicators compliment each other. Among another things, a momentum indicator can signal when a market is trending and an oscillator can signal when a chart pattern is failing.

Both of these indicators have two lines that cross over each other and in order to use these indicators effectively it is important to understand the cycle of these indicators. (The article describes the indicator cycles using divergence. However, because divergence is already another major concept, we will instead use 'cycles'). When the fast line is above the slow line, that is known as a positive cycle. When the fast line is below the slow line, that is known as a negative cycle. When the fast and slow line crossover that is known as convergence.

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The oscillator cycles in this fashion infinitely:

Quoting 
... Convergence (Crossover) -> Positive Cycle -> Convergence (Crossover) -> Negative Cycle -> etc etc..

It should be noted that the MACD cycles are smoother than the stochastics, but cycles should always be respected. Depending on the angulation of the indicator, we can describe the type of price action that will generally be occurring. If we are angled from 9 to 3 o clock, we are either in a positive cycle or heading toward a positive cycle and if we are from 3 to 9 then we are either in a negative cycle or heard toward a negative cycle.


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Positive = Bullish and Negative = Bearish

These cycles exist as a proxy of volume. Positive price action implies that there is more incoming bullish volume and negative price action implies more bearish volume. This doesn't mean that there is no bearish volume during positive price action. This only means that bullish volume is the dominating volume.

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Thanks for reading!


Last edited by trepidation; January 6th, 2019 at 04:38 AM. Reason: fixed clock
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Monday: Premarket gave us some good clues for where the market might head. Later in the session when price tested the premarket high, instead of breaking down, there was an extended distribution which failed and broke up. That break was part of a bigger wedge pattern that when broke retested the previous resistance which became support.

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Tuesday: What a funky money day. Premarket was a huge wedge which broke down then failed and retested the bottom of the wedge. Price was testing and stalling at alot of different places identifying potential patterns that would then fail the next test.
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Yesterday's descending broadening wedge played out as according to Bulkowaski's thepatternsite.com, but would have needed gonads of steel to hold all day
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Yesterday's NY and today's Globex identified good levels of support and resistance. This has become something of a pattern where the previous days are helping to identify key support and resistance. Part of me thinks that this is because we are in relatively new price territory and the big boys have nothing to rely on except recent price data. We can see that today's NY low was where there was a bunch of chop going on yesterday and the Globex range was where a lot of distribution was happening during the NY session. This wasn't an easy peasy short the resistance, but there were some clues as to what price wanted to do.

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And here's NY intraday breakdown
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And to look forward a bit. We can see the double bottom bounced off resistance, which suggests we will go back to retest the ~2575 level. If we can hold that level we might just ping pong between the support or resistance or break down to the lower support at 2568ish.

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19/01/10

The market has a memory and it's letting us know exactly what is going on. I thought we'd start off with a daily and four hour just so we can know exactly what is going on. The market, in it's infinite fractal nature, is simply bouncing from level to level. If we look on the daily we are testing the bottom of our range box.

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On the four hour, we can see a bear wedge forming--a distribution pattern. What the distribution suggests to me is that price will more than likely fail to break the resistance and will bounce back down. If it does break resistance, I expect there be be strength behind the move.

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Yesterday we had the failure of the double bottom and we moved back dwon to retest the lower support levels. We then had a globex inverse head and shoulders failure (never broke the shoulder) before retesting the head for support and moved higher. We had a bull flag form above support and complete beautifully. From there we formed a channel that failed into a broadening ascending wedge. This type of wedge is the exact opposite of a descending broadening wedge, but the target is still the same--at the beginning of the wedge. We can see this played out with price bouncing off at support and then bullish regular divergence at support gave us clues that the price was going to bounce back up. Price then slammed into yesterday and intrday's resistance.

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11,14,15


Been a little busy. Here are the past few days.

Friday: The horizontal support and resistance lines represent zones and are not exact numbers. They tend to shift from day to day. I brightened the support and resistance that i adjusted
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Monday: Choppy day. Price was bouncing from zone to zone. The only great trade would have been taking advantage of the globex inv HnS. Playing support and resistance might have worked out too.
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Tuesday: Resistance is becoming support and we are entering new price territories. Price is discovering new supply/resistance areas. Alot of ping ponging off of previous supply/support areas into newly discovered resistance/supply zones
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