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CookieMonsta's discretionary trading journal
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CookieMonsta's discretionary trading journal

  #11 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

Just an update for the previous post.

It's not exactly active now, London is opening soon and that's when the deck gets shuffled in GBP and EUR, flows may flow over to usdjpy, so taking my profits and waiting till London, but not sure if I should take it so fast since there is no obviously strong
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  #12 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

Done for the day, fomc tonight, so will be stopping.

Not exactly what I would call a good day, mostly because I'm quite close to my loss limit and i also scaled in too heavily right from the start.

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  #13 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received


follow up for the post above, final p&l for the day. a very choppy day today
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  #14 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

Today will be an interesting day, I have hit trench 1 limit, and in 1 hours time there is GBP news release, now in trench 2, goal is attempting to reduce as much loss as possible. Position is locked.

Alright some minor scalps to help release some losses, originally was at -$80 at 0.30 lot, traded $25 up, now booked +$14 floating -$55 at 0.24 lot. Pair, gbpusd.

Ok, further loss reduction, booked +$22 floating -$70.

Alright, did abit of letting the loss fluctuate, by taking long leg profits, and rehedging at better price. Also scalped abit short, afew dollars, now we are at +102 booked -$138 floating, net -$36., Position locked

Alright final outcome, booked the loss at -$45.

Think process, added extra 0.20 lots long to try to see if i can tone the loss down more, but market still seems like its not done retracing, volume fairly high, i have also pretty much halved my entire loss for the day, letting it ride may not be so desirable. Hence decided to tske the $45 loss.

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Last edited by CookieMonsta; December 20th, 2018 at 08:02 AM.
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  #15 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

No trades today, closing trade week, with net $70+.

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  #16 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

the only thing which matters in trading, is tactics and strategies, defensive (risk mitigation) and offensive (alpha and profits focused).

that is the catch to market neutral strategy.

so the way my trading style goes is a highly discretionary trading style, with afew focus
1) risk protocol ( what to do if you breach certain levels of risk)
2) money management (too broad a topic)
3) good feel for price action and good trade management strategies
4) fundamental / sentiment analysis (optional, but if you have a view see if price action agrees with it)
5) defensive techniques ( example hedging, spreading, any other possibly options, scaling in and out when in loss)
6) offensive techniques (scaling in and out when in profits)

the metaphor is, to think like a strategist, martial artist or any of the like, operating at a high level.
think like the big boys, figure the accumulation and distribution phases and trade each phase as it is, accumulation, distribution, marking up or marking down, then when hit by a curve ball, employ defensive techniques and strategic thinking to figure out how to trade out of it.

that is the essence of my style, it was taught to me by a very experienced and highly successful trader. the defensive techniques were developed on my own.

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  #17 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received


CookieMonsta View Post
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Next, I will be showing some techniques which I have discovered could help to manage positional exposure, and its effect on exposure to volatility.

The significance of doing this in a few swings is that you are alternating between a lock and a long exposure. But of course, real trading is rarely this clean, so usually you have to leave some extra positions for errors and sudden turns by markets.

The above is an alternating sequence which can be used in conjunction with dollar cost averaging meant to handle run away markets.

this time another defensive technique.

what if we were long, but we did short only hedges and alternate between being long and locked?

notice that although we lag behind the technique above, we effectively have half the exposure all the time.

also note that, we are profitable AFTER price has fallen from our initial long position entry.

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  #18 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

cost basis reduction.

there are afew ways to do it.
some have different features and risk profiles.

1) averaging the position, increase position size
2) selling options premium (many ways, converting your position into a covered call/put, spreading into a credit collar, and more)
3) creating into a lock position with a natural positive cost of carry which as time goes by, bleeds in your favour till it is advantageous to leg out of the hedge and continue on.

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  #19 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received

Trading is sometimes really odd. In the sense that, if you can prove your edge is consistently profitable, it is good that other industry professionals disagree with you. Well isn't that why the edge is still there?

If you read the book, the market wizards, some of the pit traders mentioned in the book series, have their edge from reading the faces and profitability of people whom they are trading against in the pits. That would have meant knowing who is profitable and when, then trading against them.

So if I can prove my edge, and professionals tell me I'm talking rubbish, I know my edge will last the only measure for a strategy's edge is can it perform in changing market environment.

That is the very nature of edge, if I dare and can do what you cannot, that is my edge.

But that does not mean there always doing things opposite will always work, you have to know how and why it works.

And only experience and familiarity can allow you to know this.

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  #20 (permalink)
Singapore
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: MetaTrader 4
Favorite Futures: Spot Forex
 
Posts: 63 since Dec 2018
Thanks: 2 given, 48 received


The difference between a healthy respect for risk and the market's, vs fear.

There is a fine line of difference between these 2, what great traders have is a presence of mind to differentiate between the 2. Knowing when you are doing something because of fear or not doing something because of fear vs doing it because it makes sense to do so vs not doing so because it doesn't make sense to do so.

The real question is, why do some traders not average in? Perhaps it's a deep seated issue in their mindset. By the fact that investing does do dollar cost averaging, and it shows to outperform the market's (Warren buffet) why should it be any different for trading? See the main reason is because people are confusing having no risk control for averaging into perpetual oblivion.

These are in fact 2 very different things. Averaging in is a strategy, risk control is another thing altogether.

The real question is, if you reached your loss limit why would you be adding more? The answer is because no risk control.

The real catch is here, it's not about bagging on them, but the basis of learning is understanding mistakes and learning to correct them. Even better if they are someone else mistakes and you learnt and became better, essentially you improved without having to make that particular mistake. But in order to do that, you have to be willing to go really deep into why and how and what certain mistakes mean, how and why it happened, and that may violate conventional trading ideas sometimes.

Also what does this have to do with actual trading tactics? Well there are mean reversion systems and trend based systems, 1 perform where the other do no, but there is 1 area where both are likely to lose, both, not 1 of them. And that is, when the markets are transitioning from trending to ranging or ranging to trending, where the signal quality drops drastically, and false signals are prevelant on both sides. So what's the key? Averaging in and hedging. Both not 1, hedging for transitioning from range to trend, averaging in for trend to range transitions.

And that is the real catch to this, how to combine, both. You see, in hedge funds, they do not actually have such issues, because they do long short portfolios and it's highly discretionary, and the problem with system traders is, they still can't overcome this segment, which they call noise, but noise is profit for someone else, who? Well market makers, at least in the past where it was done by professionals discretionary dealers who know what they are doing when they average in.

And that is the real issue I have with system based trading, when you know there are more powerful discretionary strategies based on adapting to the markets, you simply do not want to go back.


Last edited by CookieMonsta; December 27th, 2018 at 09:56 PM.
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