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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$


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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$

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  #1 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

Intro to Adventures in Oil Futures Trading-

Hi - I'm Sean and this is my journey in trading crude oil, otherwise known as the big CL. My vision is to take this journal from demo to as far as I can take it. The format will be documenting my daily performance, analysis and context read of the market as I see it. At the end of each week, I will also do a "week in review" and video, along with any other setups or thoughts I have along the way. I hope to have as much dialogue as possible with members to help me improve and vet my edge. I would also like to do what I can to contribute, I'm always happy to answer or discuss questions or comments.

Why am I doing this? I am doing this for accountability, I have had great success with follow alongs in internet marketing. Back in 2013 I did a follow along on a forum and I had very good results. I learned a lot, made quick progress and met great people that led to other opportunities.

In 2016 I was on another trading forum and started a trading journal but I didn't stick with it. I couldn't stick with the follow along and the results of my trading also were not good. So here I am on futures.io, ready to give it another go. Tenacity is the cornerstone to success!

I am not a new trader. I have been trading off and on for almost 20 years. I am 37 now, but have taken long breaks in between my attempts. So far I have had little success in trading. So not my first rodeo!

My method: Auction market theory, volume profile, support resistance, failures of price. A very simple chart and some order flow for entries and trade management. No indicators!

I am also doing a video journal on Youtube. I would like to link it here if that's ok. This will be 100% transparent with every trade I take. No BS, no account resets, no excuses. The best and the worst will be shown. I will show my account P&L on demo and my live accounts as well. We seem to have a lack of transparency when it comes to trading and the anonymity of the internet these days. So I would like to do my part to change this.

First Youtube Intro -
Intro to An Adventure in Oil Futures Trading #0


You can watch Youtube videos on 2x speed. So for longer videos it's great. I watch everything on 2x speed. I am able to learn twice as much or in half the time, depending on how you look at it.

Thank you and looking forward to my time here.

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  #3 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received


I had hoped to start trading on Monday November 26th, but I had some technical issues and wasn't ready. So my first day trading was Tuesday, November 27th after around 18 months off. It felt good to be back at the charts. I feel I still have a decent read and understanding of the auction. But there is a huge difference between being able to read price action and executing trades correctly and profitably.

We will see if that turns into an edge I can execute. The most difficult part isn't about trading, but about overcoming what is between my ears.

Overall I had a pretty good day, I only took a couple of trades. I am still flushing out my plan. My style of trading has been to take around 2-5 trades a day, on occasion none. I think a trading plan is always a work in progress and I will continue to add to and modify my plan. I have a written trading plan that's about six pages right now with details like my setups, homework, money management, etc. I had this trading plan in 2016 last time I was trading oil, but I never finished it out completely. It wasn't detailed enough and lacked clarity about my edge and setups. And my results were not great.

It's funny how I had lied to myself about trading in the past, as simple of a thing as finishing a trading plan, the ability to exactly describe my edge, the details of how to enter and not enter a trade, money and risk management, among other things. If I had truly had these things down and on paper, I would have held myself more accountable about my progress. Looking back now it seems I didn't want accountability.

One thing I am struggling with, is changing my strategy around position sizing. I previously was very disciplined and structured and traded a fixed size position, no adding or scaling. Most successful traders seem to trade multiple lots and scale in and out of trades. But the person I learned from to trade oil, was very successful and he always traded all in and all out. I am not really sure how to work this out? I also follow futurestrader71, and he is a big proponent of multiple lots but he also told me I should solidify an edge with fixed size first. This is confusing, because if the multiple lot position strategy is what gives a positive expectancy then a fixed strategy may not work at all.

My second trade today was a 2 lot where I put on the initial 1 lot, when price moved in my favor I was able to add another and it worked out.


Results:

11/27/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +38 TRADES = 2
WINS: 1 WINS TOTAL = 51 AVE WIN = 51
LOSSES = 1 LOSSES TOTAL = 13 AVE LOSER = 13
BE = 0


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naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

11/28/18 DEMO
TOTAL = -12 TRADES = 6

WINS: 1 WINS TOTAL = 19 AVE WIN = 19
LOSSES = 2 LOSSES TOTAL = 28 AVE LOSER = 14
BE = 2



Something to notice here is my MFE on four out of the six trades is 10+ ticks. This is something I have considered in the past which may affect profitability. For example if I had a rule to take all trades off +10 in today's trading I would have had a much better result, and I would have been +25 on the day instead of -12. For today that is also assuming I would have gotten the fill on the two trades that went 10 ticks in my favor. But it isn't often this is 10 MFE on the dot.
I know I have to give trades room, but it's a fine line between moving to BE too early and taking full losses and giving the trades room to play out. Also if you take them all off at say 10 ticks then you never get any runners. I counted the -1 and -2 trades as BE, especially on sim this tends to slip me on my BE trades. Normally when trading live my BEs go to +1.

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  #5 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

11/29/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +17 TRADES = 4

WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 30 AVE WIN = 15
LOSSES = 2 LOSSES TOTAL = 13 AVE LOSER = 7.5
BE = 0



Another example of MFE where if I would have taken trades off +10 I would have eliminated one losing trade and the result for the day would have been +4 better.

Video Journal #1

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naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

11/30/18 DEMO
TOTAL = -6 TRADES = 6

WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 35 AVE WIN = 17.5
LOSSES = 3 LOSSES TOTAL = 41 AVE LOSER = 13.6
BE = 1



MFE shows again taking trades off +10 I would end the day +14 instead of -6.

Video Journal #2

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  #7 (permalink)
rameshmahato
Mangalore, Karnataka/India
 
 
Posts: 1 since May 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received

hi

Just-Trade

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  #8 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

12/3/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +21 TRADES = 2

WINS: 1 WINS TOTAL = 20 AVE WIN = 20
LOSSES = 0 LOSSES TOTAL = 0 AVE LOSER = 0
BE = 1



Video Journal

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naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

12/4/18 DEMO
TOTAL = -44 TRADES = 4
WINS: 0 WINS TOTAL = 0 AVE WIN = 0
LOSSES = 4 LOSS TOTAL = 44 AVE LOSS = 11
BE = 0




Total mess today. Over my loss limit -30. I went 0 for 4.

Video Journal

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naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received


12/6/18 DEMO
TOTAL = -30 TRADES = 7
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 40 AVE WIN = 20
LOSSES = 5 LOSS TOTAL = 70 AVE LOSS = 14
BE = 0




2nd day in a row hitting my loss limit. I am going to reduce my stop size to 10 ticks tomorrow. This is how I used to trade and if the setup doesn't meet this criterion I will pass on the setup. What this means, is that if I don't have a likely zone of protection or an untested bar high or bar low where price is likely to give support within 10 ticks I will pass on the trade.

Video Journal -

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