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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$
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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$

  #61 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

#1 6:50 S24 -4 Short saw large volume coming in idea was to short for second leg down to ONL. I didn't put my stop above bar high and managed too tightly right above chunk of volume trying to keep my stop small. 4 ticks of extra risk cost me 50 ticks price sold off 2 minutes later to YVPOC.
#2 7:11 L51.87 -7 Small push below consolidation. Very near LOD and would expect a test before reversal. This was a risky trade. Price made one more final push lower to take me out then pushed hard higher to my target.
#3 7:29 L52.02
#4 7:46 S buyers seemed very weak and not able to push higher. With context of daily chart lower expansion was very likely and high probability. Taken out on small push higher on very light volume and no responsive buying.
#5 7:50 S After last trade and lack of buyer interaction I took another shot. Pulled my target down to 34 around the area of major previous demand. When price finally went it was explosive and hit my target in seconds. Price went down to 18. Very Nervous to pull the trigger. But I realized if I stop trading what I see my edge will not be valid. It's easy to give up and say this just isn't my day. In the back of my mind I am thinking does this turn into a loss limit day which isn't helpful. But I also tell that voice to stop and just do my job and execute my plan.
#6 S Looking for a test of the lows. We pushed down hard and retraced back up under large consolidation zone. Also around VPOC so there was trouble for this trade. Price pushed higher again to take me out. Had a very tight stop. Getting late in the day as well. The push higher that took me out ended up being the swing high and then sold off.

Day Summary: Extremely volatile small range day.

Today I wanted to post two of my losses. These accounted for -11 but because of the management of the trades the setup was valid and both went beyond my target for +70 ticks. Both trades went in my favor 1-2 mintues after getting stopped out.
#1
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Unread   #62 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Virginia
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView, Seasonalgo
Favorite Futures: CL,ES,GC,Spreads
 
Posts: 40 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 119 given, 26 received

One thing I noticed perusing your thread - and this could be completely spurious - your first and/or second trades of the day are almost always losers. I don't know what can be done about that. Just something to think about.

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Unread   #63 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received


1/14/19 LIVE
TOTAL = -12 TRADES = 12 WIN % = 16.7%
WINS: 1 WINS TOTAL = 12 *AVE WIN = 12
LOSSES = 5 LOSSES TOTAL = 25 *AVE LOSER = 5
BE = 6
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No discipline, I completely lost my ability to separate my context read from correct setups. I find myself being correct on the overall context of price and somehow this justifies me entering trades without valid setups. Definite FOMO. There certainly weren't 12 valid setups in the market today based on my edge. Feels like a big step back. I understand that I can't have positive days everyday, but it feels like moving backwards when I lose control and discipline because all I'm trying to do is create consistency and today I was anything but consistent.

From Market Psychology 2.0
"How many times do we analyze a market, plan a trade, and then do something different in the heat of market action? The problem is not a lack of discipline per se. Rather, our fast thinking brain has hijacked our slow, reasoning mind. Quite literally, Kahneman points out, a different part of the brain controls our fast and slow processing, sometimes taking control at the least opportune occasions."

**Another aspect of today's trade that I am aware of are the implications of commissions on my edge. Today, my losses equal to $120, which is more than acceptable to my risk paramameters. But then to add an additional 50% to my losses by taking $60 in commissions is not good for longterm profitability.

Last week on $920 of profit I paid over $200 in commissions or about 22%.


Last edited by naesm; January 15th, 2019 at 02:04 AM.
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Unread   #64 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

1/15/19 LIVE
TOTAL = +32 TRADES = 8 WIN % = 40%
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 50 *AVE WIN = 25
LOSSES = 3 LOSSES TOTAL = 17 AVE LOSER = 5.67
BE = 3

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Day Summary: A grindy day but with opportunity for small range expansion. Today I was very careful to be on the right side of the larger TF trade mainly taken from my M15 chart. Watching where liquidity was, what highs and lows had already been tested and what was next likely to be tested. This resulted in almost all long trades for the day. My first trade was a trade short but after that resulted in a failure lower, next expectation was for higher prices and a test of the HOD and ONH.

Youtube Journal:

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Unread   #65 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

Trade #4
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Trade #8
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Unread   #66 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

1/16/19 LIVE
TOTAL = +3 TRADES = 9 WIN % = 28.6%
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 30 *AVE WIN = 15
LOSSES = 5 LOSSES TOTAL = 29 *AVE LOSER = 5.8
BE = 2

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Youtube Journal:

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Unread   #67 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

1/17/19 LIVE
TOTAL = +13 TRADES = 10 WIN % = 42.9%
WINS: 3 WINS TOTAL = 41 *AVE WIN = 13.67
LOSSES = 4 LOSSES TOTAL = 28 *AVE LOSER = 7
BE = 3

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Unread   #68 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Greeley Colorado
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sierra
Favorite Futures: crude CL
 
Posts: 63 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 11 given, 93 received

1/18/19 LIVE
TOTAL = +11 TRADES = 14 WIN % = 25%
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 43 *AVE WIN = 21.5
LOSSES = 6 LOSSES TOTAL = 34 *AVE LOSER = 5.67
BE = 6

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Premarket Read: Coming up into previous major supply zone. Expectation for a test into here. This is the second test into this level. Next previous high is at 53.61 from 1/10. Longs above open and into these areas higher. Above that an untested VPOC at 54.25 from 12/6. Yesterday's POC at 51.88 and returning back to major value area and trade likely to be choppy in here. Anyway below there are short opportunities.

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