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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$
I am debating whether to start this upcoming week on my live account. My results have been improving dramatically over the last several weeks. Over the sample of all trades since Nov 27 the stats say I have a positive expectancy. If I look towards the end of the data set my performance is much better and very profitable.
Even with a positive expectancy, my hesitancy to go live, I feel I sometimes hesitate and make too many errors outside of my plan.
If I choose to stay on demo for this week, I am setting a definite live date of Jan 14th if I am positive on the week ahead.
I will also be posting soon about my goals for 2019 as well as my progressive size increase if my performance stays solid. I am going to be setting some aggressive leverage increase goals to hit for this year as well as the 3 year timeframe.
I would recommend doing this. Add a little more pressure to what you are currently doing without risking real $$$ and see how you handle it. The CL market has been around a while and will be around a while longer, it's not going anywhere. Waiting 1 more week would be the prudent thing IMO. Trading isn't necessarily about making money (especially at first), it's about capital preservation.
Yes that is always the question what will the live brain do. Only one way to find that out. As far as trade executions versus sim I'm not worried about that. I always trade market orders to get the worst current price or make sure that price trades through my entries or targets.
I agree with you, capital preservation is everything. But I did trade live today after a lot of thinking. Maybe if I would have seen this last night you would have swayed me.
Trade #1 L48.94 6:46 +17 low side failure of consolidation area. Expectation was for test of previous swing high. Price came to within 1 tick of the high and large sellers still there and sold off. Target was the ONH above but in front of this first untested high was a better first trouble area and still over 30 ticks from my entry. Took it off +17 when bar highs of previous swing didn't hold.
Trade #2 L48.58 7:12 -7
Trade #3 S48.61 7:30 -7 Failure of large volume to left and consolidating to retest ONL. Came up and took me out to the tick above previous swing high. Not a solid setup because I anticipated the failure rather than waiting for it to happen.
Trade #4 S 48.76 7:41 -3 Poor trade, Shorting straight into previous bar highs where I would expect price to hold. Previous 3 trades were more based on seeing so called absorption on the footprint and taking it as a setup. High risk low reward setups. I recognized this during the trade and stayed in "hoping" it would work out. Still had the sense to minimize the damage at least. Better way to manage would have been to take it off BE on the first push into those highs that ended up holding.
Trade #5 L 49.33 8:16 BE to break ONH and push to supply zone at 48. Large absorption came in on break of high and sold off quickly. Went to BE on test of the high.
Trade #6 S49.43 8:36 +12 Expectation that we would have large sellers into the 49.50 area a major area of interest from previous days price action. Confirmed when sellers stepped in on footprint and failed lower. Took the short with expectation of a test of low side of previous consolidation and also where the previous long imbalance came from. Price hit my target at 49.15 but managed too tightly and was taken out on a small push back up into the 30 area. After testing this low side buyers stepped in aggressive, also the IB High then after and new HOD was made.
I watched your time to go live video. I am not trading profitably myself and am kind of around where you are in terms of demo and transitioning to live. Through my statistics I have an edge; it's about gaining confidence in that edge and executing it real time, etc.
I'd rooting for you to do well and be another trader who turned the corner. You certainly have a good approach in terms of looking for an edge and quantifying it. It might just be semantics but I picked up on something you said about live trading and that's "emotional detachment". Realizing that everyone's mind works a little differently, I think that the approach of emotional detachment is dangerous for most people. Emotional detachment isn't really possible for most people. That approach could certainly work for you but for most I think that recognizing their emotions and having tools to let them be and not have them influence decision making is what will work. To me when someone says detachment it means that they are separate from that other thing (in this case their emotions). I think separating ones self from their emotions is pretty much impossible. Anyway, I might be droning on about nothing...not trying to nitpick or be critical it's just something that jumped out at me. I really do hope you have a successful week of live trading.
