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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$
Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$
Rrrracer
On the road
Webinar Host
Trading Nomad
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Broker: Oanda
Trading: FX
Posts: 2,512 since Feb 2017
Thanks Given: 17,582
Thanks Received: 9,752
Apologies, I misunderstood... it was late and my comprehension skills were low
I think you've answered your own question. No amount of discipline or psychology will overcome lack of a viable edge. I would offer that if you're not sure, then you don't have it. This should be your top priority, everything else falls in line after that.
You've already spent a lot of time and emotional equity doing this. After years of being balls deep in your market, it can be difficult to unlearn stuff, and you probably shouldn't throw the baby out the window along with the bathwater but...
What's the minimum you can get by with and still be able to trade successfully? You have a lot of charts and tools at your disposal but they have not made you profitable. Is CL the right market for you? Perhaps a slower moving market would allow more time for assessment and taking action?
My .02 follows, nothing more... tear apart, examine and question everything you know and use, really get bare bones on this. Simplify and get back to the basics. Price action, structure, volume... the building blocks that can be applied to any market. If you don't have these then no amount of fancy gizmos will help. Eliminate superfluous stuff and distractions.
Find something that works (might be something already at your disposal, but encumbered by other things you don't need,) something that really resonates with you, stick with it and rebuild upon that.
And... best of luck man. Trading may very well be one of the toughest gigs on the planet, but there's lots of people here that are willing to help, it's a great community. Keep at it, this is where the perseverance comes in
12/26/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +19 TRADES = 9
WINS: 3 WINS TOTAL = 47 AVE WIN = 15.66
LOSSES = 2 LOSS TOTAL = 27 AVE LOSS = 13.5
BE = 4
Trade #1 BREAKOUT CONTINUATION. To enter L43.53 was long below break of highs at 53. Significant space up to 44.11 60 ticks above. L43.53 Added to position at 43.86 This was not a good add on. Better to add on when the break of the high held. This was a good trade but I took it off well before my expected target. I also took a small loss on the second lot.
Trade #2 7:35 S44.17 HOD Fade large volume / stops hit on Bookmap and footprint. Shorted very close to HOD with very small 5 tick stop above high. Went to break even when price couldn't push down below large volume area. Took me out BE and continued higher. The better trade was into the supply zone above where the imbalance move down from yesterday came from. Price respected this zone at 7:37 and retraced almost 75 ticks.
Trade #3 L43.98 7:48 +4 Failure of lower side of consolidation. Expectation was that price was consolidating before a continuation or second leg up. Price failed lower side and pushed higher and I entered on small pullback. When price failed to hold the highs of the consolidation I closed for a small win. Price then tested the lower side again. Well managed trade.
Trade #4. L43.92 8:01 -20 I don't know exactly what happened on this trade but somehow I entered with 2 lots. There was a large amount of absorption on the footprint. I entered slightly above the volume at 92 with an expectation to move higher and at least test the HOD. Price made one final push down to take me out. I closed at 82 and the low was 76.
Trade #5 L44.16 8:38 Previous trade idea played out to test HOD but didn't break. Retraced to small value area and held. Saw absorption on footprint at entered at 16 to test HOD and break. Went to BE on a push higher. I have to call this an error trade there was little indication that the trade wasn't meeting my expectations but I was trying not to lose. Price made one final quick move down before moving in my favor to take out HOD.
Trade # 6 S44.54 break of HOD but a weak attempt. Immediately took the short to keep risk low and stop above the high. Price immediately reacted in my favor but didn't hold and I went to BE on push down. Large value area to the left of trade on M15. After taken out BE trade pushed higher again. Target was to push down to POC and HVN below at 44.36. Initial push down went to 44.44 but stopped and reversed.
Trade #7 S44.86 Push to untested supply zone from 2 days ago. Not particularly significant level. First time back to this zone so technically valid but market is trending hard. And fading hard trending extreme moves is not valid. Range expansion is over 200 ticks since the open but this is well within ATR. This was not well thought out and impulsive. Error trade. First time back to minor supply area is not part of my trade plan.
Trade #8 S45.15 9:30:47 M15 Major area. Large volume traded near highs but price was unable to push higher. Expectation was to revisit 45 area and close +15. Price did push to 45.03 On the push down I moved my stop to BE and was taken out. Price hit my target at 9:38
Trade #9 +18 S45.94 10:13 HOD Exhaustion Fade. Price made multiple attempts to move higher without success on positive delta.
I tried to be very thorough on my journaling today. My hope is that this will move me through the process of revealing problems in my process. However, I do not want to get in the habit of doing all of this journaling, posting, and writing as this can be very time consuming and also a possible distraction that may take away from the most important aspect of this whole venture and that is to trade well. I do feel though that having a process of documenting each trade immediately after it's over is an important ritual. If I wait until the end of the day it's very easy to find things on the chart that justify the trade. This helps me to also see through my tendency to overtrade, because if it's difficult for me to write what the setup was or why I took the trade it is likely I shouldn't have taken it.
I can see a pattern of trading too much, and I haven't done the math but when I do have a decent day, if I am donating a large % of the profits to the broken this doesn't seem like a winning proposition longterm. I need to pick my spots better and find a way to capture a larger move with fewer trades. My style is not really short term scalping so that is not what I am after. I'm not complaining about a winning day, but to only take 19 ticks out of the market with 9 trades when CL went up nearly 300 is not very good.
12/27/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +58 TRADES = 2 WIN % = 43%
WINS: 3 WINS TOTAL = 102 *AVE WIN = 34
LOSSES = 4 LOSSES TOTAL = 44 *AVE LOSER = 11
BE = 2
Interesting day, I was 5 ticks away from my loss limit to finish the day with my best performance since starting again. Things started rocky when I entered my first trade with a 2 lot instead of 1. Instead of immediately closing it and accepting the error I left it on and took the full loss. An amateur mistake and I can't expect professional results when I do these things. I am pleased with how I continued to trade with a difficult start to the day. My performance would have been better, I had a couple of missed fills and my last trade price never came back to my order to fill my second lot. I still have a way to go to eliminate errors. It's interesting to reflect back and see where I am now compared to last time I was trading live. Trading no better than I am today but somehow convinced myself that my performance live would be better or as good as when on demo. The lies we tell ourselves I know it is crucial to get off of demo as soon as possible but with errors everyday and no positive expectancy it's a guaranteed donation on my funds to the market. I probably never should have been trading last time live. It was a donation of about $7k in futures losses last time, or should I say my tuition.
I realized today that trying to capture larger range expansion moves is what I want to aim for. I guess that's what I have been aiming for all along but now my mindset is that I am going to position myself better for it. Still nine trades today which is too many, tomorrow will be less. Easier said than done but I know I can do it.
Yes I am. I have gone through a lot of the content on CT. As I remember the webinar on building statistical edges was great and I found it interesting but nothing I was able to directly apply to improve my trading. I have been thinking a lot of looking at more of the statistical side of crude as it relates to average rotations, time period range expansion etc. Last year I was part of a room called the "Oil Trading Room" another paid room, and they were big on expected moves and diving deep into the stats.
They also were really big into selling expensive Ninja indicator packages along with their $200 / month membership. And never any talk of specific performance or proof of live trading in that room. Yet still many chose to pay, including me.
naesm
Fort Collins Colorado
Posts: 144 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 26
Thanks Received: 137
12/28/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +50 TRADES = 8 WIN % = 29%
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 96 *AVE WIN = 48
LOSSES = 5 LOSSES TOTAL = 46 *AVE LOSER = 9.2
BE = 1
First two trades I can't say what were the setups. I saw some volume on Footprint and was trying to catch the breakouts, I would call these more FOMO trades. Since there was no technical setup these are ERRORS.
Trade #3 Setup was to break the swing highs to the left. Entered early and not managed well. There was a small imbalance up to the left if I wanted to be long it was a much better entry, when price came back to that area that is what hit my stop. I continue to trade what I am expecting to see rather than what I see for entries. The long trade went up to break the high but failed down. At that point the trade would have been closed for a small profit or a BE worst case scenario instead of a full loss.
Trade #4 after getting stopped out I did try again for the same idea and got a much better price, I also added after price broke up and held my level. After testing the high and failing back down the trade was no longer valid. Took it off -6, better to taken this off at BE worst case scenario.
Trade #5 8:17 L Still stuck on the long trade idea without reason. This is an ERROR because after price failed the highs multiple times there is no longer any reason to be long at least until price tests the low side of value. Price did test the lows but did not fail. Price broke the lows, consolidated and then continued lower. At this point I would expect a test of the ONL.
Trade #6 S 9:14 Shorting into failed LOD. Large buyers stepped in multiple times in this zone and should have been obvious there was heavy buying. This was 15 minutes after oil inventories.
Trade #7 Nice win, I didn't get my fill to add on to this trade after price held the consolidation zone from above. This is something I struggle with but feel confident as I am identifying good areas to add rather than averaging down.
Trade #8 Exhaustion of large move up. Very clear large volume came in, Large sellers taking everything buyers are willing to give. Price came up one last time and very little interest on break of the HOD. Took an aggressive short with a tight stop to fill in the large previous imbalance move up. I had a target to come back to previous small consolidation. Target was 22 and got shaken out when price found small buyers and I was taken out when my stop was hit I set behind a chunk of volume on the DOM. Price came down to my target at 22 a few minutes later. Never got my add on for this trade as price didn't retrace back up to where I wanted to add.
12/31/18 DEMO
TOTAL = +26 TRADES = 2 WIN % = 100%
WINS: 2 WINS TOTAL = 26 *AVE WIN = 13
LOSSES = 0 LOSSES TOTAL = 0 *AVE LOSER = 0
BE = 1
Trade #1 8:11 S45.29 Continuation short after imbalance move down. Below ONL and IB low. Price spike up and took entry below large volume chunk to the left. Target was 45.02 from demand zone on M15. Took it off +16 when price went down to 45.04. Price still held underside of previous small consolidation area. Managed the trade based on chunk of volume on the DOM, probably a little too tight.
Trade #2 8:27 L High risk trade, large volume to the left on multiple tests lower and not much seller interaction. Took the short with expectation to manage very tightly. Price pushed higher and didn't hold the level and I went BE. Shortly after another imbalance down to continue the move.
Trade #3 8:34 S44.92 Multiple bar highs from M15 to the left and expectation that not likely much room lower until demand steps in. Target was 78 and to watch and see how price reacted there. After testing this area I put my stop at 82 behind volume to see if we could test lower. Hit my stop and continued to make new LOD at 73.
1/3/19 DEMO
TOTAL = -29 TRADES = 12 WIN % = 9%
WINS: 1 WINS TOTAL = 28 *AVE WIN = 28
LOSSES = 7 LOSSES TOTAL = 55 *AVE LOSER = 7.9
BE = 4
I was correct on my read on 9 out of 12 trades but took 7 losses. Today was a great lesson in how important trade management is and it makes all the difference between an effective strategy and losing. I took trades at the HOD short and the LOD long and still ended up negative. With a little better trade management this would have been a very good day. Looking back on some of my previous stats I noticed I take very little heat on my successful trades. I need a more clearly defined derisk area on all setups.
1/4/19 DEMO
TOTAL = +89 TRADES = 5 WIN % = 80%
WINS: 4 WINS TOTAL = 95 *AVE WIN = 23.75
LOSSES = 1 LOSSES TOTAL = 6 *AVE LOSER = 6
BE = 0
#1 S48.18 6:50 -6 I was early on this trade. Price looked like it was testing previous bar highs and failing however the ONH was close overhead and still yet to be tested.
#2 S 48.36 Large volume spike above ONH absorption and fast rejection. Took the short quickly with a target down to earlier demand zone at 47.92. Price chopped around after the open at 48 and I derisked and was taken out a few minutes later came price down to 88, 4 ticks below my target and reversed. Wanted to buy it but felt I was being impulsive and also hesitated. Need to execute without hesitating especially when the stop is very narrow and I know very quickly if I am right or wrong. The trade setup was spotted on Bookmap when the second test of the low and previous large chunk of volume there was tested and little interest from sellers.
#3 L 7:41 L48.54 Price came back up to test ONH and didn't have a setup before the break of the consolidation. Price came back down to previous bar highs. Very large volume came in and took the long with expectation this volume would hold from above. Also had confluence from higher TF as there wasn't much in the way of this trade up to the 49 area over 50 ticks above.
#4 S HOD failure and weak buyers. Was a little greedy and didn't take off into HOD buyers demand area and they were responsive. Tried to take it off back to the 50 area.
Youtube Video Journal: It's a long one, watch it on 2x speed!
I'm very emotional lately, not a positive trait for a trader I know but it's who I am. Trying to keep it together, maintain a level head and one day at a time. A strength of mine is my tenacity and my personal outlook for the future stays positive no matter how dark I get.
I know my last trade doesn't define me, my last day, or my last week. Being the New Year, this is an emotional time for many, but has been particularly emotional the last few months for me, maybe even the last few years, maybe longer who can say. It's hard to know where one epoch starts and another ends. These are the phases of our lives.
I know it is crucial to get off of demo as soon as possible but with errors everyday and no positive