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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$


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Adventures in Oil Futures Trading - Demo to Millions! $$$

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  #121 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

TRADES 06/07/21: +0 LIVE
1 BE trade +0


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  #122 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received


Cutloss View Post
the mciro oil contracts will be available soon so i would trade very very conservative and they get here. if you just now back at it live again try and make it long enough to really work thos micros and then move back to the CL. nice work ups. if im tired or dozing off then i go to sleep and come back to the screen when i wake up. i made fun of people who talked about trader naps up until i started taking some and realized how beneficial it was to get away from the screens and get some sleep.

so where is your account total right now as far as profit and loss NET? you are up 550 for your 1st week?

how many contracts? what is your expectancy per contract?

net gain or loss divided by / total contracts traded.
my reason for asking this question is that you can start to use this number for a lot of things with your trading. your expectancy should be used to run all kinds of stats.. you can even narrow down your expectance to time of day buckets say 1st hour 2md hour last hour. or days of the week. this way you can have real hard data on your trading. you can then get standard dev and variance on it as well all of which can help you going forward however a word of caution. if you are using discretion which most of us are including me then a few bad discretionary trades will skew all of this data and 9 x out of 10 these outliers in your P and L will be due to a bad discretionary trade and this is the difference between machine algo trading and humans. I just want to see everyone puttin gin all this time and energy succeed!! keep up the good hard fight and work!

My edge is a discretionary read. I take the opportunities that I identify, I have no idea what will be a win or a loss, I have no expectation of trying to know what the market is going to do. I flip the coin on every trade, and trust that the probabilities will work out in the long run. I probably won't be trading the micros, I have sufficient capital to support trading the regular CL. As soon as I am profitable live with equal or better results to what I was trading demo I will increase my size to two contracts, then to four and steadily increase if I can maintain consistency.

I funded a small $5k account to start, with where my margin is set this can support trading four contracts. it will be several months of consistent profitability before I am trading this size. My expectancy for this most recent week was $550 / contract.

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  #123 (permalink)
Cutloss
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 239 since May 2021
Thanks: 66 given, 116 received


i was not trying to tell you what to do as far as the micros and tradin the micro has ZERO to do with account size. just becausse I can afford a million dollar house doesn't mean I must live in one.

Looking forward to seeing your progress.

My point and only point about the micros is that they are way more forgiving for someone who is gettign back into the game.

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  #124 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received


Cutloss View Post
i was not trying to tell you what to do as far as the micros and tradin the micro has ZERO to do with account size. just becausse I can afford a million dollar house doesn't mean I must live in one.

Looking forward to seeing your progress.

My point and only point about the micros is that they are way more forgiving for someone who is gettign back into the game.

I understand, I didn't take it as you trying to tell me what to do at all. I trade an all in all out strategy so scaling with micros wouldn't really be beneficial for me I don't think. Why do you feel they are more forgiving? From my understanding the micros track the price exactly as the CL does, the volume would be different of course.

I appreciate the feedback.

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  #125 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

TRADES 06/08/21: -79 LIVE
5 trades @ 0% win rate
0 wins: +0 ticks Ave win: 0
5 losses: 79 ticks Ave loss: 15.8 (Final trade was a -26 on 2 lots)
0 breakevens: +0

I would call this a blowup. Not sure if I should immediately go back to demo or if I should try to reset and keep going? I lost control and patience today, I got whipsawed in several trades on both sides of the large moves. I looked back at my trades and couldn't find a valid setup or what I was thinking at the time? On my final trade short near the lows I also added another lot and averaged down. This is the #1 thing I know not to do from previous experience, and the results were terrible, past my 30 tick loss limit. I have been in a pretty negative headspace recently, I have been trying to shift out of it, I have been meditating, working on positive mental exercises, writing, and trying to keep moving. My diet is good and I am in the gym a minimum of three days a week.

Last week was also my worst week ever playing cards, down $4,800. This came right after a great five-figure winning month in May. I'm sure this has contributed to my struggle, I have tried to shake it off but not having much luck. I almost didn't post today, but what would be the point of a journal if I don't write about the real struggles and setbacks? Feeling down today.

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  #126 (permalink)
Cutloss
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 239 since May 2021
Thanks: 66 given, 116 received

Sucks to hear this. However. Taking a break and none trading at all and just watching the market is great exercise.

Have you tried only trading one side meaning..you only trade long or you only trade short? I highly recommend this. It allows you to be patient and only worry about finding half the setups..and you can focus more.

Do you have a bias for oil? It is an inflation barometer...

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  #127 (permalink)
Slade9
Hürth + Germany
 
 
Posts: 9 since Feb 2020
Thanks: 10 given, 15 received

I found yesterday to be one of the hardest days in a long time. V reversals in my opinion are really difficult to spot right away and get into. Also really hard to switch context.
Like we had a strong open drive which looked really bullish and a straight drop a few ticks above the overnight low to a straight reversal to the highs.

On some reversals you are lucky and even when you get on the wrong side, the market gives you opportunity to scratch the trade break even or with a small win, but yesterday it just moved one direction. Without a real pullback before reversing.


My rule of thumb regarding V Reversals, is to have at least one red/green M5 candle after one pullback on the down/up move and then enter if I have a valid setup. Of course this doesn't always help, but yesterday it helped me to stay flat.

Posted a picture to explain what i meant.

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  #128 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

TRADES 06/10/21: +16 DEMO
4 trades @ 100% win rate
1 win: +15 ticks ave win: 15
0 losses: -0 ticks ave loss: 0
3 breakevens: +1



Back on demo after my blowup. Not much to say just gotta get back at it, stay disciplined, committed, and working.

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  #129 (permalink)
naesm
Greeley Colorado
 
 
Posts: 113 since Nov 2016
Thanks: 26 given, 130 received

TRADES 06/11/21: +10 DEMO
6 trades @ 50% win rate
2 wins: +23 ticks ave win: 11.5
2 losses: -14 ticks ave loss: 7
2 breakevens: +1


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  #130 (permalink)
Cutloss
Midway florida
 
 
Posts: 239 since May 2021
Thanks: 66 given, 116 received


I am only responding to your question about the micros and how. Believe they are more forgiving because you asked for something feedback.

The issue IMO with the full size crude contract is that it is enormous and extremely volatile. it is possible that in crude you can have a 5% down day and just like on Thursday oil fell what over a dollar in 7 minutes. Not much time to make decisions under pressure.

Would you agree that demo is more forgiving than live? Probably.
Micro contracts allow you to put on a trade n relax. Take time to monitor the charts the mkt. Make changes i.e. exit or set a stop and u never need to look at your profir n loss. You can go get lunch..take a walk. There is time to think since even a dollar down would be 100 dollars not 1000.

Demo trading is good but you dont have a counterparty trying to force you to get out.
So demo is never like real..hou can place a 1 lot real order and activate an algo or a bunch if them. Most trades are not really short term day trades..they are adds n subtracts for big corporations commercials n hedges so they worry about initial price but after that its the execution algos coming at you saying..hey pal..you dont belong here n we are about to show you and see just how much money you have aka holding power.

Micros are better than demo and it will allow you to trade and enjoy the mkts. Instead of feeling like u are on the receiving end of a firing squad all the time

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