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Keep us posted on the demo account RDK and hopefully you'll go live again. History shows that we all have to endure some hard times in order to enjoy the good times. Typical case that's one quarter out of four and seems like it was just bad timing with the live account this go around.
Is there any thing diff from your sim days; account balance? number of contract? broker? software? data feed? Beside high level of anxiety on the first day switching to live I didn't see market behave any diff. I replicated the sim environment exactly the same way as the live environment.
No differences at all, everything exactly the same.
If you look closely to the dates once i started trading the live sim account vs when i made the highest returns in my Gauntlet (going from beginning of January until half of February) you will notice that the intra day moves on the NQ (or NDX since i only traded during US sessions, then the differences are more obvious) during this period where much stronger, much more volatile (on average) then during the days i traded the live sim.
My system is a reversal system so slow trending day's or slow ranging day's are useless to me. I need some volatility.
Alright, i have made some screenshots to show the difference between my live sim period and the Gauntlet period from my volume charts. As every one can see the intra day moves during the Gauntlet where much more volatile as during the live sim. My system NEEDS volatility and strong momentum (or strong change in momentum) to be profitable.
Each screenshot (roughly) represents the same amount of bars and only shows US session.
I am not going in to detail in what i am looking for to spot reversals but i think it is very clear from these screenshots that there was a major difference in intra day volatility and reversals comparing the live sim vs the Gauntlet.
I think it’s great to are doing different analysis on the markets... curious though, have you done an analysis of how much mistakes or errors cost you?
By mistakes, do you mean losing trades? Or trades done by me which where not according to the rules and should have been avoided?
In the last case, during the Gauntlet i made quite a few mistakes. During the live sim just 1 actually.
I had some huge lag issues with Rithmic one day just when i had a trade going on and i was unable to exit it up until i restarted the platform multiple times.
Without looking at the exact numbers right now i would say this lag issue and the one mistake i have made resulted in a loss of around $250.
I’m referring to all errors and mistakes.... not just ones that lose you money.
For example, not taking a trade even though it’s part of the signal... we can often do this when under pressure.
Or exiting early, just because we want some profit (myself today because I had to leave the house early and didn’t want a trade on, but trade went right to target and that cost me 40 ticks of profit)
I did everything exactly the same, if i had a signal i took it and calculated the stop and target the same way i did in the Gauntlet.
At some point i made a small adjustment to the strategy however this resulted in less losing trades, i ranked my trades from 1, 2 and 3 from being a strong signal to a mediocre signal and in the latest part of the live sim i only took the signals that where the best, however it didn't work out. If i hadn't done that the 10% would have be gone even earlier.
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