So, this was last Monday. I do not know why some trades are split up and just 5 in and 5 out?
Using 5 contracts now in live trading, with $3100 margin, the day gross trading returned roughly 13.5% return, less fees of course.
Just moved from 3 contracts per trade for 11 months prior.
My usual winning day would look like this without the $375.00. Replace that with $62.50 and that is way more accurate. Losing days are are lurking in the shadows.
Any suggestions for what to post besides screen shots?
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Today, as of the opening, I predict a trending day, not sideways. I also predict a close of 1.2 million contracts. This is important to my approach for entry.
EX
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I started this week with $3500.00 margin. Last week I ended with $3680.90 and withdrew $180.90. I like round numbers for ease of crunching and have to squirrel away quarterly tax payments anyhow. The check from Dorman LLC is also very cool in it's looks. The water marks and all other counterfeit features are just ever changing for the better.
Today, I had 7 trades all at 5 contracts. The results split the results due to different milliseconds. Talk about the desire to report accurate fills.
Trading profit, or gross profit, was $437.50. So exchange fees for 35 round turns and $10 for the day, for the brokerage Tradovate. Net profit, was $337.20.
Tomorrows starting margin is $3837.70. (This is the largest margin I've had yet. I live week to week on the profits. I'm physically disabled and cannot work at all by the hour. I was a Stock broker, series 7, restauranteur and registered psychiatric nurse, and an unprofitable day trader before a profitable day(sclaper) trader.
Year to date profit is now $45,950.20
Total risk time in market; 23.68 minutes.
Largest unrealized loss; $750.00
Time spend during days; 4.75 Hours.
Mood description; Started fresh and ended that way.
Discretionary comments; I do not like to be in an active trade. the sidelines are for me. if I could make money sitting on the sidelines I certainly would, as would you all
Thank you for viewing.
EX
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So we see a trending day. We also see 1.204128 as volume. So I was close. Really though, this is my tracking model. An edge is created by seeing into the future. Nothing is perfect but to have a prediction and actual results so close(1.2/1.204128)=99.66% or within 0.34%, you have an idea that your model has some merit.
Discretionary comments: My best part of the day is from 1045 to 1200 EST. Trending days are my best days. Seeing the 1050 through 1155 EST bars, they were sideways. That is when I suffered my only loss today. The sideways motion at this time which is basically non existent on a trending day allowed me to conclude that a top might of been reached so i opened up the bracket, increasing my stop loss and increasing my per trade risk. This paid off today. Won't say I was right in my thinking but will post a winner nonetheless and keep the money.
Recommendation: make a prediction part of your training and maintenance. the answer to your question may never arise but what if it does. Predictions leads to edges and that leads to CABBAGE and that leads to beautiful, unadulterated Rest peacefully!
Thanks for viewing-
EX.
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I believe that program buying comment is correct. The only explanation i can offer It is my intention to grind and only use my model. i have overcome a gambling addiction and my next post will elaborate on that.
Appreciate the feedback and send the same good will back.
EX
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On 10/02/2018, my brother called me before the open and wanted to go 4 wheel driving in North New Jersey. I planned to trade from 930 to 330 EST daily. I entered early, being ahead for the week. Just a little taste and if one lost, done.
The day went off without a hitch. Actually the results were superior as the actual time for all trades totaled less than 1 minute and $187.50 was the gross.
Now for the bad news. The day started as it does, right on schedule.
My third trade was entered erroneously as I have diabetic peripheral neuropathy and my hands shake. I trade manually and hover over the market button. The trade went way sour. I canceled the stop and entered "gambling mode". The rest is history. I bailed out of the problem but it creates another, deadly problem.
The behavior, which was grossly incorrect, was rewarded. This has happened in the past. Tells me that when my algo fails, EGO can bail me out. My ego is many things but a successful trader it is not. The gambling mode was in effect for the remaining trades.
I went to an AA meeting because I arrested my gambling addiction listening to how the alcoholics cured their alcohol disease. Just replace gambling with drinking and keep my mouth shut.
Now I am centered emotionally again ready for tomorrow.
The same model I use today, lost for 6 months. Had I not arrested the gambling addiction, I would have tossed a winning system that took over 10,000 hours to develop.
My shaky finger released the genie that I now know as gambling addiction. Once in that mode, rationale thinking was out the window. Through my experience, I ran to a 12 step meeting and restored myself to sanity using their methods.
Tomorrow's behavior will tell me who is trading. A scalper with precision or a reckless gambler. The reckless gambler is also a social misfit , too egocentric.
5 contracts per trade.
Thanks for reading.
EX
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I am ES only. EX was a compulsive gambler yesterday and escaped in good shape. That's not good.
The volume from Globex is higher than usual this morning. Strategy ADJUSTMENT TIME
the size of the 5 minute candles will be larger. larger stop loss and realize added risk factor More Globex=More Chicago. After the open keep track. watch for PATTERNS.
Recognize at points during the NY session like 11, 12, 1, 2, 3 est and are the expectations of volume there?
You know EX, that when the volume is up, or down because you are a momentum trader, that is so IMPORTANT. EX do you know what to expect on a normal day at, say, 11 AM est, the days volume of executed contracts. Yes I do.
Should I tell all my friends.
Of course, that's how it should be.
Trade smart and strike hard and be in no longer than 2 minutes per trade round turn; use a bracket and do not touch; ever.
Be a surgeon who is humble, kind and sharing; so important.
Great idea-
EX
currently listening to Meatloaf and the old favorites. Looks like a great calm day ahead. Don't get in your own way with EGO.
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Picked on the major news grab. It's was very risk/reward. Very risky for me. Around 4k margin, too narrow to play like that.
Neurologist this morning. No trading this afternoon if the volume is still busting. Too risky.
Look for a few if possible, small ones, after the opening, 1-3 tics only.
Not before 10 AM EST for 20 minutes only.. Don't give back this morning.
No greed = No fear. No fear, level headed decisions. Level headed decisions = Best chances.
Thanks DD
EX
PS Still love participating at that speed. Curious to see if a human cam beat IBM's Watson. Not this human. Have to call it guessing for now. Not enough samples to crunch.
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Volume was out of control. Did better than usual with the cash and worse with the time per trade. Always the same tho, more time risk more reward. I moved for one extra tic on the 5 minuter like we have been talking about. Makes sense until it doesn't.
Tried the algo in the NQ and took 2 small. Much different in timing. When the ES is too fast then use the NQ is the question, so far so good. Cannot determine with 2 only samples.
Took some extra today and some extra education.
Ready for tomorrow.
Thanks D-
EX
PS Down 1k at one point, could be my Achilles heal. (reckless?)
Today could be the worst so far for volatility. VIX spiked yesterday and majors got crushed right to the end. Open up the stops for more reward with more risk. Been winning high percentages be ready for personal correction. Love winning but do not like giving back a dime.
So, same as the last few successful days but potentially very successful or very unsuccessful. Strike fast and get out faster to reduce risk through time exposure and maintain reward level.
A small edge is what I have. Discipline to carry the edge out is what I need. This week has been good.
Thanks DD-
EX
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These days used to baffle me. When I used the demo on GO Futures the trades executed as soon as they touched the price. Then I learned the hard truth about having to wait in a cue or line to get out. Then Tradovate was the answer. Their demo was realistic and when I tried live again, the results were similar.
Today was just as planned. Low risk and high reward.
Ready for tomorrow.
Thanks DD
EX
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I still have my edge. I can see into the future for 3 minutes and 20 seconds with 95% certainty.
Week had plenty of oddball results from the severe volatility. Stuck to my plan for the most part and took the "ride' twice. Mistakes were flat, +200.00 and -200.00. Glad to be away from the volatility of the all-time high. Took some cash and some knowledge.
No regrets not participating in the big moves. They used to wipe me out chasing after them. That's why I developed the entry sniper system for fast in and out.
My mother is an old, old German and says to me, "fast nickels, not slow dollars"! Finally understand what she means. Tough old bird.
High volatility means lower trade times and more risk. My old rules stated that i should refrain from days like we've had. Time to update the old rules?
Ready for Monday next.
Thanks DD-
EX
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Regarding news or event plays, I think the uncertainty is an important factor because it can act as a leveler. However, as time passes the sophisticated algos and informational players are more likely to start trading which increases risk. There is a probably a window of opportunity after the HFT strike and before institutional traders can fully absorb the information that skilled noise traders have the strongest advantage.
Regarding higher volatility periods, holding time should decrease and generally one should be able to hit higher R trades though it looks like your edge is rather specialized. There is no definitive but one may also be able to trade with limit orders more effectively. As well, market orders become more risky to use.
I used to use limit orders and found in my experience that market orders are less risky. I get many comments about starting $12.50 in the hole and it appears that way to the eye. When sniping, you need short term momentum only.
Limit orders make you wait in line and when you get filled the short term flow is against you. That scenario forced me to go to market orders where the flow is going my way. This change took my model from break even to plus 3.8% and finally, consistently, profitable. Break even is 83% winning.
Last week, I predicted the next tic, mostly for the ES, but experimented with the NQ, with roughly 95% accuracy. Among st the best weeks I've had. Things are changing in my model so we will see.
Thanks-
EX
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Took my first hit on my first trade. First time in 54 weeks. Shit day so just stopping. Not getting great signals. the swing is good and the volume is good but just not getting the action. Cold today and the arthritis is hurting. Las Vegas for good in January
Nothing out of the ordinary for a non active day.
-3 tics and plus 4 ticks = + 1 tic and fees for 16. Close to zero
Volume should be under 1.5 mil to morrow. Check the VIX.
Ready for tomorrow-
EX
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Volume at 6 am is 120k and range is 15. Market is around the mid line price. Lower volume could be a sign of concern so keep the VIX handy and wait for first wave to complete itself, 10:15 ish.
Last week was great so no givebacks. Sitting close to $800 and do not forget that $600.00 is the goal.
Trading prior to the election may be very volatile so the safe spot is out of the market.
Stops are tighter than it's been but still wider than "normal" times. No more rides.
84 days til Las Vegas, can feel the warmth already.
TY DD
EX
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Feeling way down this morning and went back to sleep. Might be getting a cold so in and out quick and back to bed. market is moving way to fast. Better safe than sorry.
Thanks DD
EX
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As a momentum trader you are looking to get in after the trend starts and before it stops.
Pure momentum trading gets crushed when the market is sideways and kills when trending so stay out of the sideways motion.
Look for breakouts but WAIT until the market trends.
Get in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th consecutive candle in a trend and jump in and out. I get in the second by plan.
I have several plays in my book and my high percentage winner goes like this.
1. Market is sideways(3 or more 5 min candles) and has established a range. Happens all day long.
2. Market breaks out to the upside or downside and candle closes above established resistance or below established support.
3. Very next candle reverses for the beginning part of the candle, say under 2 minutes, and then reverses back. In an uptrend move the second I see 2 green tics, I'm in play for 1 tic, currently with 5 contracts. That's great momentum.
4. check the time as you need about 2 minutes to get in and out for a single tic of profit. You want to be out of the trade before the candle closes as they can reverse severely just as the next candle opens.
So, if the market has broken resistance(stay away from from session high and low) and then turned down after closing and then turned back up after 2-3 minutes, get in on any pullback as long as the candle is currently green.
This is the 1 tic play that originally got me close to break even. I still use it but have also grown as a trader.
My math is better than my English. Follow with more questions if you'd like.
TY
EX
PS I trade off a 55" TV screen and sit about 18' from it. My volume bars are 20" tall. Over time(weeks), I can now see things about acceleration of volume(HFT?) and use that information to enter. When you stretch it out you can see it pulsate. Jumping on huge acceleration of volume closes 1 tic trades in less than a second. Last week I had set for 1 tic profit with a bracket and was so fast I got 2. That is my edge.
I am now working on getting more than one tic profit per trade. Only been at it for a few weeks.
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Volatility destroys limit orders and eats them for breakfast. Stops are directly related to volatility.
In my perfect ES world, the final volume for the session is 1.125m, and I used a 5 tic trailing stop all day. I participated in the largest volume candles while they were accelerating.
Since we are in huge volume uncharted territory, I'm using my margin account as a stop. Not a proven or probably prudent method but I need something.
From above, the more volume the session will have the more volatility is expected. Widen when higher volumes exist because wider swings are expected(opposite is true). Some days we've had may be better to stay out.
ES offers great liquidity for scalping and that price of that liquidity is volatility.
I found my rhythm by going back to my completed trades for the day and seeing how i could have done better. I found on those 1.125m volume days that if my model was off by 4-5 tics it usually went really against me and that's how I found that particular piece to the puzzle.
It's all about the scientific method. Data collection, analysis...
TY
EX
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DD-
This is my third best month in a row. Absolutely killing it while remaining relatively calm. The "gambler" in me is still simmering but unable to reach the boil. Working hard on that always.
For November, continue starting every Monday morning with max 5 contracts per trade and $4000.00 in margin. By the end of the month margin needs to be at $6,000.00 for a maximum of 8 contracts.
Continue to search for the magic stop loss formula. Currently using the VIX:length of first three major waves(pts/tics)
Currently at an early stage but (1.2[VIX] - 7) VIX=10 12-7=5 Could be the furthest thing from the answer! If it is not the answer I move on and look around. Data collection, analysis...
Be mentally prepared as back surgery is very traumatic. At least the first 2 were. Set up wall projector again so i can trade during my recovery. Could be bed ridden over a month. Prep the house.
Quick hit today and out. Crazy busy!
TY DD-
EX
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Did not belong in the arena today. Ran down over $1500.00 so a shit play! The last trade went against 4 of my filters and I still ended up in. It went sour then turned green and I still watched. Took a 1 tic loss as punishment. Trying too hard not to eat a loser. My history knows that is risky business.
A win is a win is a win. That will have to be today's mantra.
I move on accelerating high volume and that is always with the current trend, happening now within the candle and does not have to be the days trend It's about that moment.
Conversely, I move on decelerating high volume and that is always counter trend.
In either event it is during high volume.
I taught myself by reading anything I could find on any related topics.
I learned all the candle stick formations and then came across a cheat sheet of the most commonly appearing one's and there suggested meaning. Just knowing the basics I feel is worth the small investment in time. There is money for me in the long wick retracement play. Getting pretty good at it.
I learned many of the approaches, candles sticks, technical...and put together a Frankenstein model.
The best place to scalp is in existing high volume right before it takes off for a burst. This is no secret.
The screen shot is the current volume bar right by the side of the candles stick that is live. I use a 55' TV for a monitor. I can see the volume jump and watch what happens to price at the same time in real time. On a regular screen with volume bars 2-3 inches tall, you cannot see anything, or at least I couldn't.
Then it's
bump up(volume bar, a bump not smooth move) and price up(momentary trend) or bump up and price down or bump up and no movement
If you step into the acceleration of volume and have accurately deciphered the simple code
then you apply this to your model. The technique described got me 65-70% winning rate for a single tic of profit(showed direction was correct). I needed more filters which is my model. it is constantly changing as the market volumes change.
The information about the trend before the acceleration does not last very long and the candle takes off in seconds. BEWARE OF HEADFAKES. With practice my muscle memory maxed out the speed necessary to catch the train leaving the station in a short term known direction. Many hours of practice on demo and thousands of paper trades.
I feel better with this answer. The other one was more of an example. This is more general theory.
EX
ps THE SCREENSHOT IS VOLUME AND PRICE WHICH IS A VISUAL OF THE TIME AND SALES DATA. WHEN THE MARKET MOVES UP A TIC WITH 1000 CONTRACTS YOU SEE IT IN REAL TIME AND CAN ACTUALLY USE THE DATA BEFORE IT IS ANCIENT HISTORY-20 SECONDS LATER IF YOU ARE LUCKY.
This is not investing, this is a real live video game for real money and for keeps. HFT is constantly being blamed for the 'negative aspects' to the trading market. I hated the HFT right up until I found a way to hitch a ride on their money train. My mother taught me how to face bullies like HFT, head on, right?
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Late start today since I was at Dr's office for pre surgery clearance. I'm healthy enough to be very sick. Same old for over a decade so no big deal.
Way ahead this week and volume still huge but some daylight at abnormal times. Yesterday offered some insight into higher volume days with temporary reprieve's. The conclusion is that it is time to go over all rules that are over 6 months old and check for validity. Possibly a better trader than 6 months ago.
Today, the trades were in my wheelhouse. Three trades lasted a total of 39/60 of a minute. My margin was hardly at risk and the reward was $475.00 minus the fee monster. Selection is the key and always will be.
Heading out to lunch with the boys and ready for next week.
Thank you DD-
EX
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I set a goal January last of $1200/week, or $65,000/yr for trading the ES, emini. I'm basically there at $55,248. October's gain were close to 10k, a record breaker and as a direct result of ridiculous high volume and extremely careful execution. The ES can be very forgiving according to Handle. The ES can be very devastating according to TraderEX. A careful balance is needed.
For November:
Trade a maximum of 5 contracts per trade.
Margin account is now at $6000 but playing as it was $4000(5 max). Going to maximum 8 contracts per trade(6k margin) on 12/1 if and only if margin account is $6000. Breaking even or better from now until 12/1 will be a go.
For last night:
Total shit show. In by accident and it started a trip I wouldn't normally take. If the market range was larger, I would have gotten smashed. I am no longer reactionary to that mistake. I wish I would have stopped after the first trade but didn't(couldn't??). Handle was right, the ES can be very forgiving. That one statement is why trading is so tough. Picked up $437.50 for 25 contracts($17.50 per).
For Today: VIX is still around 20
Range from GLOBEX is 13.25 pts.
Volume from GLOBEX is 121,000
So, range restricted slightly, volume is back to normal or even a little slower and VIX is recent history high. This combination and the signals they suggest are not clear. With the election so close, thinking it will be confusing until Wednesday the earliest. If today is a lemon then stay out tomorrow.
If the year finishes how it has been, next year I go for the throat. Money has been tight so far but that has come to an end after October's gains. I know that I can trade well but the larger numbers seem to effect me in a disproportionate manner. Can only assume that this time with the gradual increase of contracts per trade, I'll be ready. If not, I'll grind 5 contracts per trade for 1 tic or better.
Thanks DD-
EX
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Wow. I didn't think one could make money shooting for 1-tick targets. "They" said it couldn't be done and I just accepted it. You've expanded my horizons. It's not my cup of tea but I'm rooting for you
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TRADEREX-NEXT GENERATION as for what "THEY" say “Cogito, ergo sum.” "I think, therefore I am" Descartes would trade 1 tic.
BROWSE THE TRADOVATE WEBSITE FOR DETAILS.
Appreciate the support and return the good wishes.. I am highly proficient at getting a tic or two. I did one tic only for the last 21 months accept the last few weeks. I am now proficient with regards to order entry ONLY.
Had one go sour(fell asleep) on me last night and waited it out until profitable. Close to getting hammered but it reversed in time and was a winner. When I get in this situation I move my profit target a tic or two further. I see that if the ES reverses back to me there is a good chance it will bypass me because it is showing a big move. More time, more risk, more reward necessary!
Otherwise, I start slow and get ahead a little at at time. Makes it easier to play when ahead some. My stop loss is margin above $2500. Today that was about $3500. Normally, when the volume is "regular", I use a 5 tic trailing stop and a market order.
Because of the election I felt a tighter range than it has been. Fortunately it was ranged somewhat.
Today is best day on my record $2375.00 before the fee monster. I struggle between gambling and a tight ass technician. BIPOLAR TRADER? LOL
Thanks for the vote of confidence, very kind-
EX
The screenshot is 23, 5 contracts per trade. 105 winners, 10 ties and zero losers. The ties come from participating in huge volume spikes. Even with a bracket and market order you get slippage at these times. If you pick the flow correctly you will get positive slippage. I've gotten as much as three tics around 935 EST. (i stay away from the opening now, for the most part).
I am technically a baby boomer(1962) but think like a millennial.(out of the box).
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All but three(3) trades went according to plan. The volume was sweet around 20,000(15-25k) per 5 minute candle. I let the three run wild which is always a bad move but I had enough money to ride it out. In the old days I would be back on demo by now, broke as a joke.
Need to look into the ones that got "away". I need to find a precursor like I did with entry. Must be something alike in the run away trains that gives a clue. No clue found then it is my error. Maybe just the draw of the cards buying the top or selling the bottom. Ever body gets a turn? We'll see.
So DD, $2375.00 before the fee monster. Biggest personal day ever and willing to stop before lunch is a good sign of discipline. Zero losing trades(21) as well. I showed poor discipline earlier.
Thanks DD-
EX
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More of the same. Thought it would be tamer but no. Sat too long yesterday and my back is shot. could push through but why?
$$625.00 in 6 trades and 30 contracts with longest trade at 37 seconds. I was momentarily in for 10 contracts. Have enough margin and double hit the market button. Ran one right out because 10 is waaaaayyyyyyyyy to many today.
Was my capital at risk today? Yes, can always turn real fast.
Ready for tomorrow unless sunny, it will be 63 degrees. nice day is off to the 4 wheel drive zone. probably last nice one. Just me and my best girl. not married yet so no fighting and plenty of $$$ you know what.
Everyone loves a winner unfortunately. I am as guilty as the next man.
Way ahead for the week and only Tuesday. Wish they would call me with a cancellation so I could sneak into surgery.
Not fortunate with my health. Working on a new algo for it.
TY DD-
EX
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I just wanted to say that your journal might be the most amazing trading thing I've ever seen. Your consistency and discipline are remarkable. I read the post where you described one of your trading scenarios and how you look to trade in general. I get it but I can't see it myself. It's great that you've been able to carve out a legitimate edge here! And you're really taking on the algo's and winning - there is maybe hope for humans after all!!!
Have you ever looked to try your momentum method in commodities? I believe those generally trend better...I guess liquidity might be an issue (?)
The following user says Thank You to Comeback King for this post:
Thank you. The success is what it is. Hard to explain and certainly the best it has been. Because I see things in a different light, I have trouble showing others. My son's friend up at MIT took a few hours at my side and is breaking even after 2 months. Muscle memory has a lot do with it as a manual system and he is a gamer.
I only now see how enmeshed the VIX is to my parameter calculations. With a VIX being what it was when I started in 01/2014, basically historical lows. This is now 4 years into my training and and a better instinct trader. Between the model I've made and the "give me's" they provide, I'm able to step up my game a little and caught a breakout. I'm going to be cautiously super aggressive and follow what works.
To answer your question, it is purely about acceleration of existing high volume over here. ES is KING King. Hope you get to change your handle someday to neverneedacomeback kid. I remember those days in hole. No thanks.
Appreciate the comment-
EX
PS Being old and pretty sick I want to leave anything I can behind of value. My contribution to the world we live in. I've been a taker way too long. I'm thinking maybe the ES:VIX will be of some value to me and then of course, by others. They used to say "Don't touch that dial" for Batman in the 70's, so stay tuned.
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First two trades were horrible calls but I use the my margin account and set of brass ones can take your move against me any day. Big brass ones took them both. Poor trades and winners feed the notion money makes money. I do realize that if the market spike against it could never return and my account - Hasta la vista baby. This is why I withdraw every time I can on Friday only leaving behind what I plan to lose as a max the next week. Maybe someday I will be trustworthy, aka disciplined and not subject to gambling thrills, until then, better safe than broken.
Rest were good trades and LOVING the average trade time. Actually all entry orders are 5 contracts with 3 tic profit. Caught 2 extra tics relating to super hi acceleration of existing already high speed. Happens every so often lately but not until the VIX busted over 15. They split up sometimes when super fast action is prevailing.
TY DD-
EX
TraderEXJr. just stopped by. It's about time!
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Again I just want to say that this is very inspiring, the whole thing. I also have some back and neck issues (stenosis), they are not yet severe enough for me to do surgery but it's in my future. Lifestyle adjustments have been made, mostly I've given up powerlifting.
Anyway, I'm still intrigued and happy about your trading method. It's not something you'd find in any trading course or manual.
I have tried trading ES and I gave up on it, I just don't get it. I tried trading with market profile, volume profile, support and resistance levels, all kinds of "levels" and I could not get consistency either in back testing or simulated trading. I now believe I have an edge trading mean reversion in equity indexes, though I leave the ES alone. I mainly trade NQ and RTY but also monitor YM (monitor because it's a lot like ES). I back tested and sim traded this and the back testing showed there is an edge. I made the edge work in sim trading so I signed up for a combine to maybe get funded. I'd rather do this at this point that trade my own capital. I also continue to work on CL, where I believe I have an edge trading with trend pull backs. Anyway, the journey continues for me - maybe I will get there one day.
I stopped visiting this site as I was focused on my own development and journaling was creating problems and not solving them. I'm glad I took the time to check in here and there and found your journal, it's amazing and inspiring! I wish you the best of luck.
The following user says Thank You to Comeback King for this post:
The degeneration in my neck is such that I get pseudo migraines. Tread lightly my friend, advancing your situation in the slightest could be all it takes.
I'm not familiar with your methods but am satisfied with them as long as you are. I am curious about back testing in theory. I think that it tends to give false positives as well as false negatives but that is only my thoughts. I've never gone through the process.
As my model not appearing in the market place, it is based on human behavior. I noticed open interest one day and remembered seeing that same number many times. My pattern that i have tapped into is about greed and all the other things we are supposed to proud to be of. Lived on the dark side for many years. I understand negative attributes all too well.
I am also glad you peeked back. What good is sharing something good if no one reads it.
Thanks and go get'em. Crush, kill, destroy-bankrupt the enemy I say!!!!!
EX
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I wonder how we are doing in the journal contest. We don't win stuff like that, traders think we are "different" because we are not like them. (LOL).
Overnight was smaller than it has been so maybe around 1.35m in total volume today.
More of the same. Didn't go on any considerable ride and ave time remains historically low for my model. Working the VIX:ES relationship. It is definitely NOT linear and not purely exponential, so, algebraic once again is the answer. I'm starting to think that y=mx + b and a scatter gram can solve the mysteries of the ages and give me a decent toileting schedule.
Thursday and way, way over any forecasts I've tried to figure out. Just going with the flow and not being rigid in my thinking.
End of the month already has 6k in margin up from 4k last month. So 12/01 will start up to 8 contracts per trade. The nominal dollar swing will undoubtedly "excite" me beyond normal human emotion. Never getting past 5 per trade would not kill me. Important to remember.
Heading to Jones Beach with GENERALS, my Cocker Spaniel and trading partner.
I hope you don't mind me asking, but I'm curious on your development of your model. You mentioned algorithm in your first post but you trade manually (discretionary?)
How or what did you do to move from algorithm to manual trading? I assume you used your algorithm to test your theory and then did simulation trading until you proved your edge? This is something I am curious about as I have struggled (and probably will continue to struggle) with moving from theory to practical application in the markets.
For example, I believe that equities tend to mean revert. I don't have the programming chops to test this myself but I've seen data from what I believe is a reliable source that shows that equities are mean reverting. So I work to find a way to trade a futures index using mean reversion. As I don't have a way to program this and test it, I rely on setting up parameters then performing a historical test, manually. Of course, this is only good if I'm not fudging results and changing things. Next I trade this in a live, simulated environment until I have a large enough sample size and I can consistently execute my plan. Then I put it to work in the real market.
Anyway, any insight you would have on the process would be well appreciated!
I was trying to figure my way through the ES as a scalper. My finances in 01/2014 were gone from medical bills and divorce. I have chronic pain going on 20 years. Every year it gets a little worse. It's my back and a wheel chair soon.
I am using my disability check and not paying the mortgage. Right at the beginning I was doing below break even. I was playing one contract and being super selective. I demo'd for 6 months before cash and around 1400 I would fund my account. I had 900 before I was locked out. Sometimes an hour, sometimes a month but zero profit until 2 years in, 2016.
I have off the charts(.9997) pattern recognition skills. I had built a simple screen. I started to notice that if certain things happened, simultaneously, across two different screens(split screen side by side), on being 5 minute candle and one being volume, I was viscerally sick. That setup look so good and it many times broke me as it looked so good and I loaded up to 2, sometimes 3 contracts per trade.
Now I know the enemy. How can I beat that spot where I get wiped? Must be plenty of money for the other side. Six months later I had my solution. The null hypothesis. I cannot get it to work therefore it is unworkable. Takes a bit of confidence to say that because the ES is a monster and non-domesticated.
How do I get in the side that used to kick my ass in? Roughly six months later we are at break even. Through reverse engineering I've creating a priority checklist. or as my dinosaur education states, a flow chart. So my flow chart says if this happens then consider this. Today and here especially an algorithm is a program so I did go to the dictionary.
noun
a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer.
My algorithm, my pre determined set of rules, that the computer would follow as well as the manual enter er.
I need speed of entry so muscle memory and thousands of order later, a little more win percentage.
Summing up, no backtesting, no trading education purchases, strong pattern recognition skills.
Greed and other poor qualities were against me when I went from demo to live. Just another hundred and out! Identify what core issue the problem and work on it. If theory works then the operator is defective,
About your mean reverting plan. I think of a scatter gram. The histogram also applies here and the strong price level is the highest rated.
Math is a law but averages move. On the scatter gram the points(trades) are dense around the average line and thin as they move away from the existing average. That means plenty of small win but trouble going for larger spreads. The ES is known for whipping the stops out. People sit there to get a one tic better price and your really sitting there until the market figures out what to do with you. They usually decide to take your money and not leave it.
In theory you could beat the market by knowing what has passed but you will never have 100% knowledge. The model you are playing will fail unless you enough margin to cover the run of outliers so far from the mean. How much money necessary to control margin int the ES. Just too big of an entity to see all around it 360 degrees.
Only by thought and zero practical knowledge I think your sample size is way too small therefore the results are not valid. mentioning fudged results makes your question and my answer irrelevant. Trade one contract for the ES and use 1500 in the play account. Double it and your ready to go live. Or at least I was and I still lost. You also need screen
time.
Ty for the question,
I cannot post yet for today as my backup computer has windows 7 and I cannot figure out how to post a screen shot. My son will be home later if it is possible. It was a real good one.
EX
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What a week, right? The motion is fast but the trades are mostly accurate. Today was my first double trouble. My neuropathy double clicked the mouse and 10 contracts live when only 5 desired. Went quick and I stared and withed it luck. I did what I used to do to get out of trouble. I set the stop way out there over 50% of the last large move and could have lost 2k at it worst. Came back and stopped it just in to profitability. Had dropped 5 of the ten off earlier to slow it down.
Then good stuff. The one tic loss was from misplacing the stop. I thought it was 1 under and no glasses and no patience and no logic. Afternoons are rough on me. The 2 o'clock medication for my spine are sleep inducing. muscle relaxers, and medical marijuana.
No drastic changes to anything until signaled by bad results.
Great week DD, TY
EX
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I put through 2 trades early. First one was usual and the second one tanked right away. The stop loss was set around $2500.00 and went down about 1k. I didn't see t as i fell asleep until 12 noon. had the trade not closed in my favor, 45 minutes later i would have lost 2500. the market tanked 30+ points. Note to self-no sleeping during and open trade.
I fished the day way ahead. went back to sleep and woke around 7. Thought is was Wednesday morning. I had a problem with my family this weekend. I forgot to stay out of my business if they are involved. Forgot my mother had OCD hoarding and my share of as anything that passes through her hands belongs to HER. I got beat out of 20k and the last time it was 33k. Any price to get rid of her would be acceptable. I made over 6k last week and she can go rot with her cartons of cigarettes. At least I do not have to bother with any longer. have barely seen her in 10 years and live 5 miles away. Another funeral I can slip. Enough of what is not important.
The weather siucks and I have to make adjustments. I am susceptible to changing weather patterns with regards to barometric pressure. I need to regulate my non trading life so it will assure my trading life. I have two boys who do not depend on me but need all the help i can give.
Trading the ES is my way out. My edge is trading the ES with my model. My model was created by the ES being so stubborn. had the ES let me prevail from the start, I would not need a model to bet the ES. ES BEWARE!
TY DD_
EX
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I swore off the Globex because just to slow. Experimenting with it now because the volume is so much greater than its been. I tried nights before the day session and failed miserably. I need to review all my do not does. I become a better trader week by week. The trader who failed in the nights is no longer around. I will continue based on this mornings action.
VIX around 20
Volume at 9 am est is over 300k Range is 31
Should be a wild day or at least the morning.
Stay clear or go for the gold?
TY DD
EX
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Obviously I'm still agitated by the hit from last week. The money would be nice. It's the total disrespect I get which I no longer will take. In 2012 I instituted a full paradigm change. I do best when I stay far away from the disrespect ors. Do not get involved even to help out. it is a trap that can no longer catch me.
More trades for the day.
The first one got me good. Losing 437.50 to me is horrific. I earned over 6k last week and now around 3k for the two days and still wanrted to ride the trade out. My indicators said get out and i did. The market moved 4.25 points higher so my 2500.00 this day sucks stop loss, would have held and added 875.00 to today's total. Que sera...
continue trading, wide awake i continued and did very well. Completely shot without the right sleep.
TY DD-
EX
The figures are for 18, 5 contract trades upon entry. win percentage is off due to the nature of the split exits. Correct to 94.2%
Perfect for a crazy man to make cent$ out of it.
875 + 2900(new personal high = 3775.00
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Hospital today at 12 est so I will be away for a while. I am going to try trading from my cell phone. I depend on a larger viewing screen so I bought a magnifying glass. Time will tell if it can be done. Should be on heavy doses of Dilaudid, aka hospital heroine, for at least a week. I need to tread lightly.
Margin is going to be 1800.00 with 1300 of that for risk capital. Two contract per trade maximum. Then the old rules apply. Under 1500 is one 1 contract max and over 2k is 3 max. 2500-4,3000-5....
The overnight paid and that's my pocket money for the vending machines. Hospital food has come a long way but the quantity is small. They call it healthy???
Thanks DD-
EX
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I was stuck and probed most of this afternoon and surgery is on for manana.
I started the margin account with $1780.00. Today was my commission day to pay so I took the active plan at $99.00 a month plus $0.19 per side for commission. So, $1681.00 was my starting figure. I traded from my gurney and/or wheel chair at the hospital after trading from the car. Educators say that you need a "HOT ROD" computer with a dedicated line and...That may apply to other, slower moving contracts, but not the ES.
I was watching the tic chart for a while and saw trades 200+ contracts and zero slippage. The monster we know as the ES gobbles them up whole and spits out the one contracts warriors.
Things I will be doing while I am down is comparing the VIX to the ES for exit and width of stop loss. My target had been a single tic up(56/60 with 4 ties and zero losses is the record) until 08/2018. Setting a target higher is new for me. I've been winging it Early in the process it looks like it might be linear. Could it be as simple as VIX-9 = max target. That puts the target within 2 standard deviations(68.27%) which covers a whole lot of ground. Once ahead, a stop loss at BE is critical. I use a trailer at that point.
The results are in and a simple screen of volume and 5 minute candles, stacked on top of each other, along with cell phone, does the trick. Not as accurate as my 55" screen at home but it's the dollar figure that counts and not the beautiful stats.
Next time Big Mike has a contest about our trade station, I have some choices. My phone trading at the supermarket, beach, bathroom, and/or hospital will be my entry. No phones allowed in the OR. Maybe that will beat the 8 screen monstrosity with blood pressure cuff within reach and the latest edition of "Habits of Successful People".
The next experiment is me up on Dilaudid. We'll see but my thoughts are not a problem.
Typing this on a phone is brutal and no more unless I have an hour to waste. Can't type, can't see that well, and I have a great memory so a few weeks not journal ing will be like the 3.5 years I spent not journal ing.
TY DD and I'll BE BACK shortly.
EX
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The fact that you are trading so consistently in the face of your back pain is truly amazing to me in and of itself.
Your journal has been eye opening for sure - I am curious to know more about what you do to help control your gambler side as 'overtrading' has been an achilles heal for me. I clearly see how I have ditched numerous promising methods due to my poor performance as a result... only to repeat the process. Managing my overtrading episodes has been the biggest challenge to this loop.
I truly wish you a speedy recovery from what sounds like a very difficult surgery. Thank you for your journaling and my contribution to you is to tell you about a pain management device called the firstTx Personalized Drug-Free Pain Relief - ENSr Medical Inc and you might also want to look into Cobroxin and Niloxin - these are non habit forming and highly effective pain alternatives.
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Been sometime, but I'm always in your debt. I can recall the past accurately but sometimes my mind bends the truth in my own defense. I appreciate my ID comforting me but my EGO needs check.
Thanks to the members here wishing me well. I appreciate he offers made and the suggestions that followed. I can assure you if you sent me a suggestion I will google it to death.
My story starts in Jan 2015 when I opened an account with GOFUTURES. I had no trading model and they were very interested in their commissions. I lost in 2015, 6500, and in 2016, I lost 5200.
I joined Tradovate by chance as I enough with GOFUTURES. I saw immediately that the unlimited trades for a flat price was for me and the model I was developing. In 2017, I was down 3800 at the peak and finished 17,200 ahead. My model was to profit one tic per trade and employ more contracts per trade. The year was primarily 1 tic profit.
Now, in 2018, my model exploded in the second half of the year. I got to three contracts per trade and to 5 contracts at the end. I'm sitting today just short of 90,000 net profit for the year.
Since I became profitable all my time has been on refinement of a winning model. I had an eight step process that checked boxes and then entered with a bracket 2-4 trailing stop loss. Since my model was constructed during the bull run, I knew nothing about bears or their markets. I know have a full education and see that i can make more in a down market. Opposing traders experiencing paralyzing fear as they realize the ride free is over for now.(big money will always make big money therefore big money is an edge).
I am still searching for the optimal stop loss. VIX, range, volume and who knows what goes into that mix. Not defeated though, just not victorious yet.
I found that some of the eight steps were not necessary and sometimes added confusion to the entry decision. I cannot get any simpler now or I would have no screen. 5 minute candles, and an understanding of their meaning, along with some volume trackers and done.(for now)(need to be flexible)
So, for 2019, I hoping big numbers as in big boy numbers. I have more to risk but hopefully that will just not be necessary. I wish the members here a nice holiday and hopefully we will all be on the "right" side of all trades.
My cell phone experiment yielded profit but not like the full setup. That tells me I'm on to something. I've been talking with another trader and we are looking for the reason behind the big moves. I can say now with certainty, I understand price action for a tic or two of profit but for no more.
One tic is plenty if you are very certain and very right. Today was wild and very exciting.
I confessed my gambling addiction from the past and it does rear its ugly head unexpectedly. Being blind sided like that can blowup my account which has not been blown up in 2 years. I keep my margin account low. Yes it is a pain in the ass but sending money back and forth is less troublesome then going to the cleaners. Tradovate offers a lockout option which can be reversed by the user. To me it was useless. The second it cut me off the was the second I changed the parameters. I asked them to develop a lockout that asked how long it would last and was irreversible. I have not heard anymore about it.
Today was more trades than usual. I only define the term over trading if you are behind. Today was just busy for my model.
SHOUT out thanks to BIG MIKE for running a smooth operation. I came from a not so smooth place.
Thank You Dear Diary, I'd be lost without you.
EX
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Rest peacefully! 
, too egocentric.
