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TraderEX-CME-ES-Tradovate-one to three tic target.
Volume was out of control. Did better than usual with the cash and worse with the time per trade. Always the same tho, more time risk more reward. I moved for one extra tic on the 5 minuter like we have been talking about. Makes sense until it doesn't.
Tried the algo in the NQ and took 2 small. Much different in timing. When the ES is too fast then use the NQ is the question, so far so good. Cannot determine with 2 only samples.
Took some extra today and some extra education.
Ready for tomorrow.
Thanks D-
EX
PS Down 1k at one point, could be my Achilles heal. (reckless?)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Today could be the worst so far for volatility. VIX spiked yesterday and majors got crushed right to the end. Open up the stops for more reward with more risk. Been winning high percentages be ready for personal correction. Love winning but do not like giving back a dime.
So, same as the last few successful days but potentially very successful or very unsuccessful. Strike fast and get out faster to reduce risk through time exposure and maintain reward level.
A small edge is what I have. Discipline to carry the edge out is what I need. This week has been good.
These days used to baffle me. When I used the demo on GO Futures the trades executed as soon as they touched the price. Then I learned the hard truth about having to wait in a cue or line to get out. Then Tradovate was the answer. Their demo was realistic and when I tried live again, the results were similar.
Today was just as planned. Low risk and high reward.
I still have my edge. I can see into the future for 3 minutes and 20 seconds with 95% certainty.
Week had plenty of oddball results from the severe volatility. Stuck to my plan for the most part and took the "ride' twice. Mistakes were flat, +200.00 and -200.00. Glad to be away from the volatility of the all-time high. Took some cash and some knowledge.
No regrets not participating in the big moves. They used to wipe me out chasing after them. That's why I developed the entry sniper system for fast in and out.
My mother is an old, old German and says to me, "fast nickels, not slow dollars"! Finally understand what she means. Tough old bird.
High volatility means lower trade times and more risk. My old rules stated that i should refrain from days like we've had. Time to update the old rules?
Regarding news or event plays, I think the uncertainty is an important factor because it can act as a leveler. However, as time passes the sophisticated algos and informational players are more likely to start trading which increases risk. There is a probably a window of opportunity after the HFT strike and before institutional traders can fully absorb the information that skilled noise traders have the strongest advantage.
Regarding higher volatility periods, holding time should decrease and generally one should be able to hit higher R trades though it looks like your edge is rather specialized. There is no definitive but one may also be able to trade with limit orders more effectively. As well, market orders become more risky to use.
I used to use limit orders and found in my experience that market orders are less risky. I get many comments about starting $12.50 in the hole and it appears that way to the eye. When sniping, you need short term momentum only.
Limit orders make you wait in line and when you get filled the short term flow is against you. That scenario forced me to go to market orders where the flow is going my way. This change took my model from break even to plus 3.8% and finally, consistently, profitable. Break even is 83% winning.
Last week, I predicted the next tic, mostly for the ES, but experimented with the NQ, with roughly 95% accuracy. Among st the best weeks I've had. Things are changing in my model so we will see.
