Basically I check the /CL chart in the morning from bed (4am - local time) and, if it looks “ok” then I’m in (1 - 5 contracts just to be “mentally tied” to the market), if not, I check later (6am - 10:30am).
Initially I go for my $1000 goal (usually just a couple of scalps). If it comes “easily”, I go for $2000 and so on. My “mental energy” is what dictates when I’m out for the rest of the day (4pm is my limit).
I defend my positions dynamically, constantly adding to/subtracting from a bigger position. If it feels right, I’m in. If I change my mind, I’m out or I reverse. My results average are pretty nice, but the variance not (we are talking about oil here, right?!).
Although I have several undergrad/grad courses under my belt (including Mathematics and Statistics) and expertise in Programming, the intuitive approach (gut trading?) works perfectly for me.
I trade from TDA mobile app for a 9 or less contracts position (my best trades!). For 10 and beyond I use Thinkorswim if I’m home.
I love to trade from my iPhone while doing something else, including attending classes at the University (I’m a lifelong student). Idk, it just makes me feel more relaxed.
I’ll try to put some stuff in this thread to illustrate my style.
I failed to wake up at 4am today, but I made an effort to wake up from a strange dream to check the market. I though to myself: "there's no way I'm going to wake up from bed right now."
Ok. I'm up. Wifi connection is down (1st world problems... not). Battery is almost gone. 4G activated. I'm in.
Then oil does his stuff as always.
But I haven't changed my mind.
And it's over for today (I'm not going for 2x 'cause I'm not feeling 100%).
Hey, it is really cool to see someone doing a trading journal that is purely intuitive. I have felt intuition at times with certain markets, but I don't feel it all the time. I am curious to see how it goes for you, and please put some detail in as to what you are feeling when you place these trades (what your gut says, thought process, etc..), I am very interested.
The following user says Thank You to spetscom for this post:
Every time price moves, basically I think that big institutions are trading among them, and my job is to add liquidity to these transactions. Of course the volume I add is irrelevant considering the market size. I’m irrelevant myself as a liquidity provider. This helps me a lot to avoid thinking non sense stuff.
In this way, there’s some economic sense to “justify” my income (my profit comes from the risk I assume while providing liquidity to the market).
Some people view trading as a problem to be solved, or a craft to be mastered. This leads them to quest for an “answer” (in the form of a methodology/model with a set of variables/predictors).
Although there’s nothing wrong with these interpretations, I prefer to consider trading (as an individual) to be a competition among other traders to provide liquidity to the big guys.
There is a specific necessity at all times: price NEEDS to move. I think to myself: where it want to go? How can I "help" it? How can I profit doing it?
If price is moving then I enter the market as soon as possible and try to "go with the flow". I often revert my position during a trade if I notice I'm "against the flow". I use Al Brooks jargon to call it the "always in" approach.
Of course, all this discussion is a "mental model" I use to trade. Things are the way they are. But as humans we need to extract meaning from the reality. For me, it's just too sad to look to a chart with a couple of indicator and drawings and try to push buttons at the righ times, as in a video game.
Let's see if I can explain this "craziness" with reasonable examples in the next days.
The following 4 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
It was around 21pm when I was preparing to take a shower after a sunny day (I live in the Brazilian savanna and it's hot and dry as hell). I like to watch youtube videos while showering, but I didn't resist and took a look at the oil chart. This time of the day the liquidity is extremely low and the price is almost always in some trading range, sometimes changing levels with breakout movements.
I put a position while in the shower (I'm with the Ipad).
Sometimes the chart screams to you what it wnats, and this time it screamed "I'm going down!". In compact charts like this you don't need to draw anything. I just eyeballed the whole situation and could find a lot of reasons to sell. Can you visualize the EMA 20? The broken channel? The price "faking" a reaction?
Let's call the big red bar around 21pm bar 1. bars 2, 3 and 4 were inside bars (also dojis and pause bars). When I saw this chart for the first time, bar 5 was at its highs. I entered this trade at this bar with a market order (I fade the bull bar).
But price reacted in a way I didn't expected, with 2 legs up. I added another contract and shortened my target. The market changed and I changed with it. Price is testing resistance levels, the channel superior line, the last swing high etc.
In markets like this I usually trade a couple of contracts while enjoying this slow motion. The reaction failed and the prices went down (at this time I was at bed staring at this nice price action), bringing my $150 bucks.
Today was a real mess. I didn't wake up until 6am, and lost the "opening" (somewhere in Europe... it doesn't really matter). Oil was up and I managed to add some trades (buy side) with 1 or 2 contracts, reaching 50% of my daily goal.
I traded by the Iphone in a Uber car (I had to solve some problems in the city).
The internet connection was a sh!t (4g->3g->no signal), and I had some problems to follow my (yet small) positions.
Basically I ended up chasing the market like a dog, inverting and adding to a (losing) position (up to 12 contracts). I "knew" a sudden movement in my direction (a major correction) would happen.
Some pictures (initial position + final result... forgot to print the major trade screen - I was in the "chasing dog" mode):
That's enough action for today (the USA market is opening but I'm out).
The following 2 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Nice! I have to say, you have balls of steel to trade on a mobile network. I flip out if I even leave my SIM account running while I'm not in my room .
The following user says Thank You to spetscom for this post:
I took sometime to enter the flow today. Using ToS, I reverted once, held a big loser during a long pullback, changed time frame in order to keep the perspective etc.
This one was a stressful morning. I took a stomach pill... the down side of a gut trader life.
That's all for today
ps.: I trade at GMT-3
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
I woke up late (7am GMT-3) and lost some action. ToS and wifi today .
As I've said before, I almost always start my position immediately (with 1 or 2 contracts). The market is always flowing, it needs liquidity to do so, it doesn't give a sh!t about your drawings, indicators, analysis etc. When I'm bored while looking at the chart, I like to draw trend lines, support/resistence levels, regression channels etc. But it doesn't matter. Your brain is better (waaaay better) at capture everything at a glimpse (trust me, I'm a mathematician/data scientist )
As a liquidity provider, I'm never wrong. I may lose and win some money in the process, but it has nothing to do with being right or wrong. It's not a test, it's not a game.
You can see in the image below that I changed my mind and inverted my position (no, I didn't lose nothing, remember?). Looking now (after I closed my positions), it seems that, at some point, I was about $5000 negative (I really don't know 'cause I never look at my current balance during trades). The market was never "against" me.
It's difficult to explain my mental process. But it's fun to keep posting here!
The following 2 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Today I left some questions in the image below.
I really don't have answers for any of them.
Started trading futures in US this month (I used to manage an options portfolio at Tastyworks... too much work for a little profit... and it didn't fit my "personality").
Began with /ES (at TDA), but found it too "sluggish" for me.
Changed to /CL and it was love at first sight.
It has been too good to be true.
Let's see how things turn out.
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
I started trading futures (in the US) this month. Began with small positions for about 10/11 days (out of 17 trading days) to get used to the trading platform and market behavior.
I hate trading paper money, so I started off trading from my real account (75k), putting orders directly from DOM (never did that before). And, as expected, it was a disaster! But I got my lessons ("pain is you friend").
In the last 6/7 trading days I got enough confidence to put bigger positions.
Reminders for next month:
1. Stay with your 20 (/CL) contracts as "inventory limit";
2. Avoid "Iphone trading" while away from home (it's just stupid, dude);
3. Break rule number 2 (with 5 contracts or less) only if it's a scalp and the market is screaming: "I want to give you money!";
4. Stop trading at random hours just because you are bored (get a life!).
Thanks!
20 contracts needs 72k margin. I was at the limit. With a 100k account now I have some room to work with. My position sizing is based solely on what I feel at the moment. And 20 (200 bucks per tick) is perfect for me.
Fun trade at Sunday night. Open position at a wedding party and manage it while going back home. Closed it because it’s too late (of course the market went to my previous target as soon as I left the train).
I can discuss grad level Math and undergrad Stat all day long, and I'm able to program any strategy I could imagine. But it's hard (and not even fun, at least for me).
But I just can't explain my mental process today. 5 hours staring the monitor (and iphone/ipad sometimes) bar by bar.
I feel today I was a bit lucky, but you can't deny my nerves of stell
Totally worth it
The following 2 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
There was a nice wedge pattern in H1 time frame.
The price broke down the wedge and the market needed (European time zone) liquidity at about 34-35 cents range.
Every time it went too far from this range it just kept coming back.
It was a somewhat clear selling zone from me: the market would prospect for liquidity in lower prices before it tests the top of the “post” (wedge/flag analogy ).
So I started selling contracts... but went too fast (I though prices would break out soon).
Of course it didn’t. It expanded the liquidity zone to the 40-45 cents. Almost 5 hours latter the US and therefore volatility went up.
Prices spiked up without subsequent movement in that direction. Oil is wild.
Finally prices went down. Heart started beating fast while I firmly hold my position until the end (2 partial buys).
Lesson of the day: I must adjust the methodology to add contracts to my inventory.
Trend line up. Prices broke it down (1st leg down).
Me: it would be nice if price made a second leg down (20 cents aprox). In this way, the trend line would “flip” from support to resistance. I would expect a pullback, of course.
I started accumulating my inventory during the pullback (up to 17 contracts averaging @.55). It’s important to say that I didn’t waited for the pullback, so most of the time it was a “losing” position. My target was at the same level of a resistance @.40. It was aesthetically beautiful and simple.
Someone have said in this thread (moderation excluded his post) that or I was a troll or I was about to blow my account. Well, I’m definitely not a troll (of course if was one, I’d still say that too . So I’m patiently waiting time proves him wrong. I really don’t care about it, but it’s astonishing how things started so well since I started day trading in US. The liquidity is impressive and it seems that simple “book concepts” I’ve studied for over a decade just work.
Today was tough... I’m exhausted, both physically and mentally. The second (and last one for today) trade was hard to analyze. I changed my mind numerous times. Adjusted targets every time. I had to hurry back home to log in TOS in order to see clearly what was going on.
I’ll paste the images below and latter I’ll try to describe what in the hell happened. Did I trade “in the zone” or I was in “full retarded” mode? Lol
It’s my biggest winner ever, but I feel I must adjust my methodology, or something nasty is awaiting for me soon.
You are most certainly going to 'blow out' - especially trading crude, which will sooner rather than later move against your positions until your broker liquidates your positions. But still, I enjoy your psychological ramblings.
The especially hilarious parts about trading size and then rushing back to your screen are particularly disrespectful to the currency you trade in. I would say this is sim trading and if not - you don't deserve to keep your profits.
Cheers!
The following 3 users say Thank You to researcher247 for this post:
This is not sim. I just turned on Sim to see what it looks like. It says "Simulated trading" on the top left on desktop version and mobile turns orange on the top.
What kind of capital are you trading these sizes with? I dont think TOS gives you discounted intraday day trading margins for futures.
Good Luck!
The following user says Thank You to Skidboot for this post:
I went back and read your thread. It feels like you are risking too much for the size of profits. All we have seen in the recent past has been range bound moves on CL but it can do some amazing moves. I hope you dont get caught in those dramatic moves against you with these position sizes. I am interested to find out how you do over time. Keep posting and best of luck!
The following 2 users say Thank You to Skidboot for this post:
I lurk around here cause it's quite interesting to see how this plays out. Swinging 20 lots on crude is massive, one news event and it can put you in the hole. You bought 20 lots short lets say ~.35 and held through 30 ticks of heat on that lot size, price happened to come back, but if it found enough buyers to auction higher, it would've been painful... very. So in the end you sat through 30+ ticks of heat and took about 19 tick profit / contract. Less than 1R:R, math won't add up over 500 trades.
You seem to be receiving flack (including me) for the wild swinging, but i feel its good advice in disguise.There doesn't seem to be no structure behind your trades.No rule that says you have to. You're swinging 20 lots but do you know where you are wrong? It shouldn't be because of gut feel, once again no rule saying you have to pick a spot where you'd be wrong based on structure. Theoretically price will come back to your entry at some point / target. But you don't seem to have a plan before the start of day, for what has happened so far, where do you anticipate supply/demand, etc etc. Even if you trade with intuition/discretion (we all incorporate intuition and discretion in our discretionary trading), i believe a plan for the day is crucial. Or at least no plan described here other than general words about your take on action so far.
Couple of things that stand out based on everything ive read, big mikes thread, e-mini spoos, etc etc. No plan, no mental stop or at least no description of it here, just targets and entries. Taking on positions while in a wedding, closing it cause "its too late", "Today was tough... I’m exhausted, both physically and mentally. The second (and last one for today) trade was hard to analyze. I changed my mind numerous times. Adjusted targets every time. I had to hurry back home to log in TOS in order to see clearly what was going on" Basically I check the /CL chart in the morning from bed (4am - local time) and, if it looks “ok” then I’m in (1 - 5 contracts just to be “mentally tied” to the market)
Initially I go for my $1000 goal (usually just a couple of scalps). If it comes “easily”, I go for $2000 and so on. My “mental energy” is what dictates when I’m out for the rest of the day (4pm is my limit).
I love to trade from my iPhone while doing something else, including attending classes at the University
These look to me as early signs of some bad weather. Sorry for fine picking the things, but sometimes how one says things can show how they view this, and again this is based on what i've seen those who do this day in day out for years, most don't trade their P&L goals, yes we're all affected by it, but the goal is to trade your P&L or execute as cleanly as you can of the trades you plan? If the market is doing "ok"? What's ok? Trading while distracted, while in class or doing something else.
This is emotional trading, and we can't eliminate emotions from trading i agree. But i think what rubs off against most of us i'd say is that there's just no structure, you swing size based on your intuition, which is the point of your journal, and you'd be in heck of the 0.01% if you pull this off over long period of time. Your "intuition" would be your greatest edge and something amazing for all of us to witness. But i fear, this is way to wild and random trading. I'd say it's gambling with some initial crazy luck!
I can see how totally of a hater i am with mypost lol, i'm sorry. I'm not the type to be hating on people's approach, but man so many red flags, at least i feel i am doing this in efforts to save your money, assuming all of this is real and taking your word for it.
just my 0.02. but keep posting and proving us wrong, I personally love seeing someone swing more size than i ever will on a thin market like crude and is crushing it! hats off so far.
john
The following user says Thank You to noobforlyfe for this post:
In response to the criticism: This guy clearly has balls. I traded similarly before and of course sometimes I got smoked big time. But who cares if in the long runs all the profits from those good days together are higher than the occasional rip?
The following 2 users say Thank You to prof for this post:
I agree he has balls of steels to do this live and he's killing it! and it gives me the excitement when I see him kill it. it's like that girl from deadpool 2, somehow always finds herself out of death's hand. haha. honestly though, if you're making money then keep rocking! I can't even do that with a one lot LOL. I apologize if I came off too harshly, but I think you got that girl's power LOL
I agree with you in absolute everything. I don't get too emotional as it seems, but I tend to write here about extreme feelings. For example, right now I started with 3 short trades with 3 contracts and I'm holding a bigger position with 15 contracts. The short trades were relatively "easy" (with "small" profits) and I don't fell like I want to talk about them.
Let's see how painful the last one will be
Bruno
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
I think everyone was even kind in the words so far (of course there's moderation here ) But my self criticism is hard too.
By the way, I always keep mental stop gains and loss, but they're a "fluid" concept (trying to be philosofical here ), so I'm always mentally adjusting them (I know, I know ... while I was writing this it sounded to me like cr@p too).
Trade how you want to trade. As long as your PNL curve is heading north, its working for you. If it is not heading in that direction, it would be wise to reduce the amount of exposure. Thats all I'm gonna say about that!
The following user says Thank You to Brandenton for this post:
About 7 or 8 years ago, i heard about a crazy silver trader, trading at Infinity futures, got his account above $10 million in a year, when silver was dancing big. May be you should try to do that. Go Bruno!
The following user says Thank You to Skidboot for this post:
I left the last lines I drew (as I've saide before, I'm always dinamically drawing/removing those lines). I use every time frame I fell comfortable to do my analysis (from daily to 1 minute). So many "dimensions" (or "degrees of freedom") that I use to trade come at a cost: high stress level. But not because I "trade" my PnL and/or my emotions. It's just stressful enough to analyze an ongoing market (and "against time").
From now on:
1) I'll wake up every trading day at the same time (I'll start trying 5-6am) and stablish a routine;
2) No more iphone/ipad trades;
3) I'll work with a protective stop order against "catastrophes" (far away "out of the money", of course). As every tick changes the market perspective for me, I don't feel comfortable with the regular process ("analysis->target + stop loss->wait->that's it");
4) 20 contracts maximum size (I think TD Ameritrade agrees with that too ), just because I like it and feel comfortable with a 200 bucks tick (up till now);
5) I've to grasp the concepts of the oil market ("WTF!!! How are you trading a derivative of something you don't even know about!!! Burn in hell, heretic creature !!!"). That is not to say I'll not follow the news, but I should have a general idea of what's going on. I'll search for a podcast, magazine etc specialized in the oil/energy market.
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Good to know! I'm 62% (net) up since September 5 (now a 5 figures marging account). Maybe I should try 30 contracts soon to take advantage of this lucky trend . About 2.25M dollars in notional value do not scare me (ok, I'm just kidding... )
I'm bored so I generated (with the R code below) right now the simplest ramdon "chart" I could imagine:
It's basically a ramdon walk (50% chance of going up or down, starting at zero).
If you're knowledgeable in technical analysis and/or price action you should be able to analyze this "chart". Channels, Flags, Double tops/bottom, trend lines, support/resistance levels etc. They're so easy to spot on. Our brain does a extremely good job at detecting patterns in general. Markets are pretty much ramdon themselves, but it does not mean they are intractable.
IMHO, traders have to be careful to not become "wizards of the closed markets"
1) bought because I was bullish
2) recognized my error and inverted (with a small profit)
3) I was right this time
Q: How come I was bullish and then became bearish?
A: Nothing special. Technical analysis (with no indicators at all) and price action
Q: how did you define the exit targets?
A: a bit of intuition. I noticed I was becoming tired and the US will be up soon. So I made a partial exit at the break out leg extreme. I really knew price would at least touch $76.00 (you know why). So I waited for the possible 2nd leg down (or the continuation of the first) and exit as soon I could (because the profits so far were excelent).
That's an interesting statement and one I would debate. Perhaps this explains your current approach to trading? If you believe that markets are pretty much random, then you don't believe you can accurately predict their behaviour given enough skill and experience? So you say to yourself, hey, it's mostly a random walk, but I'm really smart, so if I use my intuition then I can unconsciously detect the short-term inefficiencies. Perhaps? No offence intended, genuinely trying to help
I wish you the best of luck. I you want to become a professional trader, I would start with challenging the belief that markets are pretty much random because it may be limiting your potential. Btw, I'm a computer scientist, not a mathematician/statistician/economist, so please don't throw equations or theories at me
The following 2 users say Thank You to mgcharl for this post:
1) liquid markets are random (in reality, they tend to be random, in some "limit" concept);
2) the observed randoness is a consequence of the players interaction (given some restraint conditions);
3) randomness doesn't mean you can't beat the markets (it's something more elaborate);
4) markets "need" traders in order to become random;
5) that's why market inefficciencies are wiped away (after some time t_0) by trading activity;
6) there's an economic reason (but it's a grey area) that justifies the "revenues" all kinds of market players "receive";
7) I think I complicated things more than necessary
8) my trading (mental) framework is based on providing liquidity wherever/whenever necessary;
9) price action is a tool I use to tell myself a story ("prices bounced 2 times in a support zone, leaving behind a double bottom pattern");
10) I think the storytelling part is just a pile of cr@p, but I use it all the time because it seems to work;
11) I don't have a definitive answer to explain why it works... maybe it's a grafícal representation of collective behavior (bullsh!t)
12) I'm wrong in about 30% of these topics, but it doesn't matter too
Bruno
The following 2 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
1) started bearish;
2) market did 2 legged pull back to a double top resistance (M5 chart);
3) I was selling as the market was rising;
4) fear;
5) I was still confident in my initial analysis (doji star at 6:30 in M30 chart was nice);
6) as I just can't time the market, I have to be prepared ("Anything can happen, including everything");
7) Price might touch $74.00 today (you know why) - feelings of greeeed;
8) still bearish;
9) back to the game.
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Yesterday I read an introductory small book to the oil market. I love books "for dummies", but this one was for children! It's enough for me for a while
Just to be clear (my English sucks!), I don't follow the news.... never. I'm not a market analyst and I don't know how to interpret those things. I don't even like to read about oil. Looking at price and volume is difficult enough for me.
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
I’m 38 yo and I’m trading for the last 15 years. I’m only new to futures in the US. I traded stocks and futures in Brazil and options in the US. I don’t trade for a living (don’t need it anymore). It’s just a profitable hobby for me.
Margins are significanty higher with TD, around 7k for 1 contract of /ES. Seriously doubt he is trading 20 contracts with 75k account unless he has a special foreign deal
Go figure it is $3,720 for /CL , that would be right around 75k with no heat
Volatility is good for the market and trading.
Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp
$3600 per contract up to 20 contracts, and I renegotiated my commissions this month ($1.25 per contract). Now I maintain a 100k margin account (cash). Every month I withdraw the excess. But I’m surprised with all this discussion. 20 contracts is not institutional volume. And I know the risk I’m taking (the losses are big too, but in average I’m profitable).
This is the first time I maintain a trading journal. And I’m enjoying doing it. Writing in English is a challenge for me and interacting with people around the world is fascinating.
But I know I made a mistake. From now on I will not show my PnL and volume traded (I did at first because it seems everybody does), just entry/exit point and trade logic.
Dude... do you even know the meaning of trolling? Who in this thread is really trolling? The guy said nothing to you. Why use vulgar language. You say you have 30 years trading experience. But you lack the basic common decency. If you don’t like the content or don’t have anything nice to say then stay away!
The following 3 users say Thank You to Skidboot for this post:
Brother, don't let some scum influence you. Do what you think is right. We are all here to learn from each other and encourage one another to do the best.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Skidboot for this post:
I quite enjoy your journal, please keep posting. If it works for you, it works.
Could you elaborate on point 3 below? If the market is random, how can you make profits?
Cheers,
Alex
PS: Visited Sao Paolo a couple of years ago. Love the city, the people, the smells, the sounds, the vibrant atmosphere. Hope I can go back one day.
The following user says Thank You to Alexander Savin for this post:
I began my "adventure" as a future day trader last month with about 70k in my margin account.
Why /CL? I've traded WDO (USDBRL "e-mini") and WIN (IBOVESPA "e-mini") in Brazil and I wanted something new, so futures on currencies and indices were out of question. So IMO it was a natural choice.
I've changed my mind about the money exposure thing... let's do the
SEPTEMBER REPORT
I ended the month with a big confidence and a "danger" alert in my mind.
I know trading is hard. As I've said, I was an option trader and my main strategy was to sell OTM naked puts and calls (do this for a couple of months and your definition of "nerves of steel" with be updated ).
PS.: some people here don't understand how margin accounts work. I'd suggest them to ask their broker for the proper information.
The following 7 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
The last week was incredible! Haters are gonna hate!
1) I negotiated lower commissions with TDA
2) I stablished a morning routine to trade
3) I gave up (at least this semester) of my graduation in Statistics (50% already concluded)
4) I realized journaling is useful and fun
5) I'm starting to feel comfortable with the CL volatily and the PnL swings (I've said that I usually hide my PnL during trades, but when price makes big moves I take a look at it)
The following 6 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Please be respectful of each other, here and in other threads.
Remember Big Mike's advice: if you do see objectionable content do not take matter into your own hands. Instead report it and it will be flagged for action.
Thanks
The following 6 users say Thank You to xplorer for this post:
The content of this thread has bugged since it began for a number of reasons but they all boil down to one big reason... I struggle like crazy and this guy makes it look effortless. I still am skeptical of all that gets posted here but I've learned the hard way to not get too involved in "online" debate and not take other people's stuff too seriously.
If you are truly rocking it, good for you...and if you are not then that will be evident soon enough. I wish anyone who is actually doing this thing with honestly and integrity nothing but good luck.
Craig
The following 5 users say Thank You to Blue Eagle for this post:
I'm a data scientist, but modelling markets is beyond my ability. So my idea is to look and make sense of the market movements while I learn (both consciously and subconsciously) to "think in terms of probabilities". As a human - a complicated pattern matching machine - I know it's impossible to DO that, but the trick here in to ACCEPT that every result is virtually possible.
So answering your question: with my approach, it's easy (less time consuming) to concentrate efforts in only one instrument. It could be anyone, but CL sessions fit my daily routine just fine.
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
The point here is that trading activity removes all market "discrepancies" (through arbitrage etc). That means some people are making money and others are losing it (zero sum game).
If a player becomes good enough to explore a market inneficiency over and over, theory says that other competitors will do the same thing (in a theoretical framework, there's no such a thing as a superior player... imagine some kind of equilibrium). As the information spreads out, the "alpha" has gone.
Again, from a theoretical point of view, everything happens instantaneously (it's not laziness, it's just more suitable to make calculations tractable). But, in reality, things are complicated, and those "guys who beat the market" appear.
Don't get fooled here: theory deals with limit situations. As the time goes to infinity , NOBODY BEATS THE MARKET.
Guys, remember that it's a theoretical model, and it says that if Warren Buffet manages to live forever, he will ("almost surely") lose everything at some moment. But he won't: Time will not have "time" to average things out.
Bruno
The following 2 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Right, just like somebody can have a series of wins in a game of tossing coins (100, 1000, 10000 wins in a row. Hell, if you give a monkey a typewriter and let him punch on it for long enough, he'll come up with Hamlet), given enough time, he (or she) will lose it all again. But if, as you stated, no player beats the market, and you are a player, how do you beat the market? Unless of course you are not in it to beat the market.
The following user says Thank You to Alexander Savin for this post:
By definition, “beat the market” means something like the same trader doing it over and over again, competing with all possible players, in all possible situations, taking advantage of the market inefficiencies that appear (until they disappear). It’s a “long term” idea.
But, as Keynes said, “in the long run we are all dead”. For practical “short term” situations (like a human life span):
1) you can be a “superior” trader (have better information, for instance);
2) market is slow to eliminate some inefficiencies;
3) you can become rich exploiting those inefficiencies during some years (maybe through your entire life).
In the end, it’s a terminology issue (and something a trader don’t need to know).
And I was planning to wake up at 6am (GMT-3) today... thank you insomnia!
2 trades today:
1) first one a bit risky (double-top + breakout bet)
2) in the second I was confident enough to to put 20 contracts a wait patiently.
Why target @.50?
1) After the breakout, the prices could test the lower of the day @.53
2) the "measured movement" of the first (down) leg of the day was even lower
3) $6k daily profit sounds good to me
Now, back to sleep
Have a nice trading week, guys!
The following 6 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
(1) Setup conditions = true
(2) Open position + Stop gain/loss
(3) Wait
(4) Profit/loss
(5) End
This is a really nice approach. You've found an edge. So you put as many trades as you can. And you wait the Law of the Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem play their roles. Classical frequentist approach. It just works.
What I try to do:
(1) Price action Analysis (I do not use fixed rules/setups)
(2) Trade
(3) Price action analysis + reassessment
(4) Trade:
(4.1) reverse/invert and go to step (3)
(4.2) average up/down and go to step (3)
(4.3) stop (emotional or big loss or target) and go to (5)
(5) End
This is something I call the "Bayesian Approach" (I’m not saying I use the Bayes Theorem! I'm not sooo crazy It’s just the idea). Step 3 is the "secret": you gather further information from the price action ("look! a big bar against my position!"), and you "weight" this new evidence against everything you already know. The weighting process is the "intuitive" part ("Do I have to change my mind and get out? Reverse? Is it a bull/bear trap? Add to this losing position?"). Basically, you have to make decisions under stress (not suitable for everyone). When I lose, sometimes is BIG.
The following 5 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Ha, I actually know someone who trade like you. Just get in a position, doesn't matter which side and work it out later. Market doesn't move in a straight line very often. He blow up from time to time but mitigates by having a fixed account size of around 150k and sweep extras into the reserve account which is usually 5x what he uses. He blow up maybe once every 2-3 month, but in that time usually makes 3x or more. similar performance as you really, 5-10% a day.
not a style for everyone that's for sure and need balls of steel sometimes, which apparently you have lol
The following user says Thank You to lone for this post:
The step 2 is the first position I enter, usually in the first 5 min or 15 min bar. After some time the market must go up or down, right?. So I go for the "most probable" outcome/scenario. If you MUST enter now (imagine a gun pointed to your head), which one would you choose: go long or go short? I usually put 1 to 3 contracts at this point. Maybe I'll wait half an hour in a trading range, Idk.
It's the same idea used in Bayesian Analysis (the call it the "priori distribution"). For me it's easy to put this trade. It reinforces the idea that I'm in control. And I'm right most of the time. The market can do anything, but in average things cancel out and this initial trade doesn't make a huge difference in results. Maybe it's just a psychological "trick".
The following 3 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
Exactly! My account reached almost 150k now, I don't know yet how much I'll leave in it.
It's risky af, but I've never blown any account... when things start to go wrong over and over I assume the (big) losses and stay away from the market (revenge trading is hell on earth).
The following user says Thank You to brunobt for this post:
The problem most traders have when they start losing is the urge/need to get the lost money back and so they start trading more and more contracts after they lost X%.
This of course is the worst thing to do!
Wishing you all the best!
Ps; For everyone reading this: A like/thanks to my original post in the link below would be very much appreciated since i can win a price with it!
And i have never been more profitable!
Once i started trading i thought the more information i could see the better a trader i would become.
There were some other setups in the time in between then and now and it took some …
I only had 2 trades on CL today, i shorted 2 contracts at 74.80 with first target at 74.55 and second target at 74.18.
The second trade was buy 2 contracts at 74.18 (same time i exited my sell trade) with a first target at 74.37 and second target at 74.49.
Very happy with my results however mine are only demo for now, so basically its worthless
Next week i will start my Gauntlet with Earn2Trade i hope to achieve the same results as i have been getting the last few weeks!
I will follow your journal, looks very interesting!
Ps; For everyone reading this: A like/thanks to my original post in the link below would be very much appreciated since i can win a price with it!
And i have never been more profitable!
Once i started trading i thought the more information i could see the better a trader i would become.
There were some other setups in the time in between then and now and it took some …
The European session and the US beginning confused me a lot today. In the end, it was a near 50/50 bet. This “always in” approach is tough.
If your results get worse with the real account, I always suggest the “Trading in the Zone” book. I listen to the audiobook version everyday, over and over.
Man I was reading your post and thought you took a big loser or something then I look at the PnL and you cleared 13k Awesome man. How many days in a row has it been now?
The following user says Thank You to spetscom for this post:
I reversed 2 times unnecessarily (with a loss) when I “knew” prices were supposed to do that (“shake” the market wildly). My expectations were higher... but the market didn’t care
Today is a national Holiday in Brazil (Holy Marys Day), so it's time to have some (kind of) fun in international (at least for me) markets.
As the (London time) market was a little choppy this morning, I decided to implement an idea: divided my limit position size (21 contracts) in 3 equal parts (of 7 contracts each) in order to limit my risk while I traded in that small range (5 to 10 cents), always looking for (trend line) breakouts and pullbacks, taking partial profits in the measured movements.
The following 3 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
It's been almost 2 months since I started trading crude oil and things are going pretty well.
I think that the content of this thread is not useful the way it is (I don't want to post my PnL without a specific reason). Besides, my methodology is too subjective (but really very simple) and I can't describe the logic behind it (even to someone in the same room). "Confluence" is a relatively easy concept to grasp, but it's hard to apply it successfully in real-time...
Of course it's still a trading journal, so I'll write here only stuff I consider relevant, like the MANY mistakes (mostly cognitive biases) I do on a daily basis.
Yesterday I had my first loss (-7k net). I was 8k positive and decided it was not ok: in my "analysis", the market had to fall 50 cents up to a dollar (!), 'cause I needed to prove myself I could do better than I've been doing so far. So I shorted 21 contracts @71.01 before lunch and got distracted doing stuff for hours... waiting for the market to obey me . And I was willing to hold my position till the end... and so I did. I exited before the interruption with 7k in losses for the day.
I wasn't even mad with myself. It was a cheap lesson, considering my stupidity. Today is another day and everything is still wonderful.
cheers
The following 3 users say Thank You to brunobt for this post:
.
.
. So I’m patiently waiting time proves him wrong. I really don’t care about it, but it’s astonishing how things started so well since I started day trading in US. The liquidity is impressive and it seems that simple “book concepts” I’ve studied for over a decade just work.
) But my self criticism is hard too.
new best for 
