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I began my "adventure" as a future day trader last month with about 70k in my margin account.
Why /CL? I've traded WDO (USDBRL "e-mini") and WIN (IBOVESPA "e-mini") in Brazil and I wanted something new, so futures on currencies and indices were out of question. So IMO it was a natural choice.
I've changed my mind about the money exposure thing... let's do the
SEPTEMBER REPORT
I ended the month with a big confidence and a "danger" alert in my mind.
I know trading is hard. As I've said, I was an option trader and my main strategy was to sell OTM naked puts and calls (do this for a couple of months and your definition of "nerves of steel" with be updated ).
PS.: some people here don't understand how margin accounts work. I'd suggest them to ask their broker for the proper information.
The last week was incredible! Haters are gonna hate!
1) I negotiated lower commissions with TDA
2) I stablished a morning routine to trade
3) I gave up (at least this semester) of my graduation in Statistics (50% already concluded)
4) I realized journaling is useful and fun
5) I'm starting to feel comfortable with the CL volatily and the PnL swings (I've said that I usually hide my PnL during trades, but when price makes big moves I take a look at it)
Please be respectful of each other, here and in other threads.
Remember Big Mike's advice: if you do see objectionable content do not take matter into your own hands. Instead report it and it will be flagged for action.
The content of this thread has bugged since it began for a number of reasons but they all boil down to one big reason... I struggle like crazy and this guy makes it look effortless. I still am skeptical of all that gets posted here but I've learned the hard way to not get too involved in "online" debate and not take other people's stuff too seriously.
If you are truly rocking it, good for you...and if you are not then that will be evident soon enough. I wish anyone who is actually doing this thing with honestly and integrity nothing but good luck.
I'm a data scientist, but modelling markets is beyond my ability. So my idea is to look and make sense of the market movements while I learn (both consciously and subconsciously) to "think in terms of probabilities". As a human - a complicated pattern matching machine - I know it's impossible to DO that, but the trick here in to ACCEPT that every result is virtually possible.
So answering your question: with my approach, it's easy (less time consuming) to concentrate efforts in only one instrument. It could be anyone, but CL sessions fit my daily routine just fine.
The point here is that trading activity removes all market "discrepancies" (through arbitrage etc). That means some people are making money and others are losing it (zero sum game).
If a player becomes good enough to explore a market inneficiency over and over, theory says that other competitors will do the same thing (in a theoretical framework, there's no such a thing as a superior player... imagine some kind of equilibrium). As the information spreads out, the "alpha" has gone.
Again, from a theoretical point of view, everything happens instantaneously (it's not laziness, it's just more suitable to make calculations tractable). But, in reality, things are complicated, and those "guys who beat the market" appear.
Don't get fooled here: theory deals with limit situations. As the time goes to infinity , NOBODY BEATS THE MARKET.
Guys, remember that it's a theoretical model, and it says that if Warren Buffet manages to live forever, he will ("almost surely") lose everything at some moment. But he won't: Time will not have "time" to average things out.
).
