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I can discuss grad level Math and undergrad Stat all day long, and I'm able to program any strategy I could imagine. But it's hard (and not even fun, at least for me).
But I just can't explain my mental process today. 5 hours staring the monitor (and iphone/ipad sometimes) bar by bar.
I feel today I was a bit lucky, but you can't deny my nerves of stell
There was a nice wedge pattern in H1 time frame.
The price broke down the wedge and the market needed (European time zone) liquidity at about 34-35 cents range.
Every time it went too far from this range it just kept coming back.
It was a somewhat clear selling zone from me: the market would prospect for liquidity in lower prices before it tests the top of the “post” (wedge/flag analogy ).
So I started selling contracts... but went too fast (I though prices would break out soon).
Of course it didn’t. It expanded the liquidity zone to the 40-45 cents. Almost 5 hours latter the US and therefore volatility went up.
Prices spiked up without subsequent movement in that direction. Oil is wild.
Finally prices went down. Heart started beating fast while I firmly hold my position until the end (2 partial buys).
Lesson of the day: I must adjust the methodology to add contracts to my inventory.
Trend line up. Prices broke it down (1st leg down).
Me: it would be nice if price made a second leg down (20 cents aprox). In this way, the trend line would “flip” from support to resistance. I would expect a pullback, of course.
I started accumulating my inventory during the pullback (up to 17 contracts averaging @.55). It’s important to say that I didn’t waited for the pullback, so most of the time it was a “losing” position. My target was at the same level of a resistance @.40. It was aesthetically beautiful and simple.
Someone have said in this thread (moderation excluded his post) that or I was a troll or I was about to blow my account. Well, I’m definitely not a troll (of course if was one, I’d still say that too . So I’m patiently waiting time proves him wrong. I really don’t care about it, but it’s astonishing how things started so well since I started day trading in US. The liquidity is impressive and it seems that simple “book concepts” I’ve studied for over a decade just work.
Today was tough... I’m exhausted, both physically and mentally. The second (and last one for today) trade was hard to analyze. I changed my mind numerous times. Adjusted targets every time. I had to hurry back home to log in TOS in order to see clearly what was going on.
I’ll paste the images below and latter I’ll try to describe what in the hell happened. Did I trade “in the zone” or I was in “full retarded” mode? Lol
It’s my biggest winner ever, but I feel I must adjust my methodology, or something nasty is awaiting for me soon.
You are most certainly going to 'blow out' - especially trading crude, which will sooner rather than later move against your positions until your broker liquidates your positions. But still, I enjoy your psychological ramblings.
The especially hilarious parts about trading size and then rushing back to your screen are particularly disrespectful to the currency you trade in. I would say this is sim trading and if not - you don't deserve to keep your profits.
This is not sim. I just turned on Sim to see what it looks like. It says "Simulated trading" on the top left on desktop version and mobile turns orange on the top.
What kind of capital are you trading these sizes with? I dont think TOS gives you discounted intraday day trading margins for futures.
I went back and read your thread. It feels like you are risking too much for the size of profits. All we have seen in the recent past has been range bound moves on CL but it can do some amazing moves. I hope you dont get caught in those dramatic moves against you with these position sizes. I am interested to find out how you do over time. Keep posting and best of luck!
I lurk around here cause it's quite interesting to see how this plays out. Swinging 20 lots on crude is massive, one news event and it can put you in the hole. You bought 20 lots short lets say ~.35 and held through 30 ticks of heat on that lot size, price happened to come back, but if it found enough buyers to auction higher, it would've been painful... very. So in the end you sat through 30+ ticks of heat and took about 19 tick profit / contract. Less than 1R:R, math won't add up over 500 trades.
You seem to be receiving flack (including me) for the wild swinging, but i feel its good advice in disguise.There doesn't seem to be no structure behind your trades.No rule that says you have to. You're swinging 20 lots but do you know where you are wrong? It shouldn't be because of gut feel, once again no rule saying you have to pick a spot where you'd be wrong based on structure. Theoretically price will come back to your entry at some point / target. But you don't seem to have a plan before the start of day, for what has happened so far, where do you anticipate supply/demand, etc etc. Even if you trade with intuition/discretion (we all incorporate intuition and discretion in our discretionary trading), i believe a plan for the day is crucial. Or at least no plan described here other than general words about your take on action so far.
Couple of things that stand out based on everything ive read, big mikes thread, e-mini spoos, etc etc. No plan, no mental stop or at least no description of it here, just targets and entries. Taking on positions while in a wedding, closing it cause "its too late", "Today was tough... I’m exhausted, both physically and mentally. The second (and last one for today) trade was hard to analyze. I changed my mind numerous times. Adjusted targets every time. I had to hurry back home to log in TOS in order to see clearly what was going on" Basically I check the /CL chart in the morning from bed (4am - local time) and, if it looks “ok” then I’m in (1 - 5 contracts just to be “mentally tied” to the market)
Initially I go for my $1000 goal (usually just a couple of scalps). If it comes “easily”, I go for $2000 and so on. My “mental energy” is what dictates when I’m out for the rest of the day (4pm is my limit).
I love to trade from my iPhone while doing something else, including attending classes at the University
These look to me as early signs of some bad weather. Sorry for fine picking the things, but sometimes how one says things can show how they view this, and again this is based on what i've seen those who do this day in day out for years, most don't trade their P&L goals, yes we're all affected by it, but the goal is to trade your P&L or execute as cleanly as you can of the trades you plan? If the market is doing "ok"? What's ok? Trading while distracted, while in class or doing something else.
This is emotional trading, and we can't eliminate emotions from trading i agree. But i think what rubs off against most of us i'd say is that there's just no structure, you swing size based on your intuition, which is the point of your journal, and you'd be in heck of the 0.01% if you pull this off over long period of time. Your "intuition" would be your greatest edge and something amazing for all of us to witness. But i fear, this is way to wild and random trading. I'd say it's gambling with some initial crazy luck!
I can see how totally of a hater i am with mypost lol, i'm sorry. I'm not the type to be hating on people's approach, but man so many red flags, at least i feel i am doing this in efforts to save your money, assuming all of this is real and taking your word for it.
just my 0.02. but keep posting and proving us wrong, I personally love seeing someone swing more size than i ever will on a thin market like crude and is crushing it! hats off so far.
. So I’m patiently waiting time proves him wrong. I really don’t care about it, but it’s astonishing how things started so well since I started day trading in US. The liquidity is impressive and it seems that simple “book concepts” I’ve studied for over a decade just work.
