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I found over the few years of trading that I am circling back to where I started. I guess with all the promoting of strategies, indicators and such, I needed to weed out all of the distractions and focus on what I believe in. Therefore, I am going to make another attempt to record a journal not just to hold myself accountable, but to help others along the way if they choose. Only you can decide which strategy fits your personality and when it is time to embrace your beliefs.
I took some time off and stepped back from the markets to find myself, to understand me. It is amazing how the markets can expose your weaknesses and make you succumb to your vulnerabilities. I am not sure anyone can be consistent in trading for a living until they truly understand themselves.
With that said, I will attempt to apply my knowledge of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci clusters to day-trade the futures markets. I welcome any feedback or recommendations to my interpretation.
I have been trading with the Elliott Wave and volume profiles. I use a simplified form of wave count, as counts becomes confusing ,with complex corrections or alternate wave counts so I look for:
1 Clear Elliott Wave price structure.
2 Price historgram direction same as the count.
3 Fibonacci levels.
4 Relative strength indicator.
5 Multiple time frame alignment
I will trade opportunity. Opportunity will present itself through the Elliott wave principles. The only thing that can confirm wave count is price action. Until it occurs, even the best labeling no matter how probable, may not turn out to be the correct labeling. However, right or wrong, at some point you have to evaluate the probabilities, assess the risk-reward ratio, follow your money management rules, and take the trade.
I like to use daily price charts to determine trend, 1-3 hour time frames to identify wave patterns, and 5-15 min price charts to finesse entry and exit points of trades.
My favorite markets to trade are Crude Oil, E-mini S&P, Gold, and the 30-year Bond.
Crude Oil continues to be in a correction on the daily chart. It appears that a possible 4th wave triangle may be setting up on the daily chart with (c) (minuette) completing. However, price will have to confirm.
The 3-hour chart shows an ending diagonal. Heading into 8/20 session, I would expect the bulls to step in and try to take crude higher with a short-term target of 66.88 and a longer-term target of around 68.00, which is the prior fourth wave.
Additional resistance may be present around 66.06.
If 64.43 fails, will have to re-evaluate.
30 year Bonds may be setting up for a move lower.
Bonds appear to be still in a correction of a larger zigzag to the downside on the daily chart. Wave 4 may be coming to an end as it finds resistance along a channel line.
Looking at the 3-hour chart, there may be one more push higher to test 145'.00 failure here can create a shorting opportunity with a long-term target of Fib cluster 138'123-138'265. Divergence on the RSI may confirm an end to the bulls. Watch Bonds
GC recently broke out of its (1-hour channel) recently which appears to be the end of a correction wave 5 of wave c. Responsive buyers were active at ~1167. Today I will consider a long entry after a pullback to ~1185 targeting ~1200.4 and ~1213 as gold continues to be in a large (weekly) correction.
Crude continues to chop around on the smaller time frame, but bias is still to the upside. Reference charts from yesterday. Opportunity may be now, 6:33a.m. CT to get long.
Overnight bonds broke lower to the downside per yesterday's plan. Buyers may try to step in, believing this is a long opportunity, however, bonds should still be favored lower on a pullback (chart of 3-hour bonds)
Still like GC to the long side, but need it to pull back. Minor support at ~1195 with stronger support at 1190.3-1192.6 (gold chart) New target ~1213.9
Nat Gas is on its way higher with a short-term target of 3.026-.028. That doesn't mean it needs to get there today.(3-hour chart)
Crude oil continues to show strength to the upside. Crude may be in the start of a d-wave of a corrective triangle OR the low of Aug-16 may be the start of a larger wave 5 move higher. Only price action can confirm. Either way, we want to focus on taking longs only. Caution today's report at 9:30 CT
Gold may continue higher as it completes an impulsive wave 3 targeting 1210.7-1212.1 and a second target of ~1216-1217.5. Continue to favor longs on any pullback.
Natural Gas is continuing to show signs of strength to the long side. It may need to pullback first. Initial target is 3.020-3.033.
