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My challenge of being a consistent trader


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My challenge of being a consistent trader

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  #51 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Relative to your other post and my response...

First, if you can normalize the last few days you are ahead of the vast majority of people that trade or talk about trading.

You are on the right track IMO, buy looking to do fewer trades IS absolutely the smart thing to do. If I divide 258 but the tick size of what I trade I get that on 5 trades you made 20 ticks total or 1 ES "handle" per trade. Consider that every product has a range to put in each day. If you are day trading, IMO you should look to capture at least half of the days range.

I don't know about your assets or what you have on deposit but if you can build a portfolio of stocks that you like and then trade the future against that long basket of stocks you will be able to focus on one market and buying good stocks.

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  #52 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
If you are day trading, IMO you should look to capture at least half of the days range.

To squeeze out half the days range I had to take my day trading completely different.
The numbers I posted are based on a scalping style.
However, when the market screams at me that a big move is going on, I try to ride it as far as possible.
But in general, the longer I hold to positions the worse the results get.
Then, somehow I lose "touch".

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  #53 (permalink)
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You have to be comfortable and effective. So, keep doing and developing what works for you.



asyx View Post
To squeeze out half the days range I had to take my day trading completely different.
The numbers I posted are based on a scalping style.
However, when the market screams at me that a big move is going on, I try to ride it as far as possible.
But in general, the longer I hold to positions the worse the results get.
Then, somehow I lose "touch".


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  #54 (permalink)
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Overall:

yields in short-term correction mode
10-2 year spread rising again
30-10 year spread rising again
Indexes around highs - NYA not
market internals looking good
HYG vs. IEF printing new interim high
HB/LV still rising/consolidate
BTP came back last few days but still upwards
Volas come back down
YEN-index consolidating
IndiMetals consolidate
CL new interim high

--> risk on

NQ:

In regard to the overall conditions, I still prefer upside for stocks.
The only strange thing is, that yesterday should have been quite a strong day - historically.
But buying first was not that strong and then we sold off.

GC:

As expected some days ago this scenario manifested itself:
"In regard to comparative analysis move it getting over-stretched.
Seems to build trading range 1.380-1.450"

Nonetheless, intraday swings/volatility is that high, that GC puts in 50T pullbacks without problems.
Same is true whenever it has a run.

Big guys push it hefty in either way.

I only see a prolonged break-out to the upside when the Yen against the Dollar is strengthening and yields falling further at the same time.

CL:

"If CL does not stabilize around 56,50 now it could easily fall to 54,50.
Above 56,50 we now have a lot of resistance.
A move up I would interpret more like short-covering after the 400 T drop"

...CL did not only stabilize but even put in a new interim high.
Letīs see if this is only a pump and dump or not.
I play it from both sides but expect it to take out 61 late in the day.

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  #55 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
Relative to your other post and my response...

If you are day trading, IMO you should look to capture at least half of the days range.

Great advice and to add a futher point aim for that >50% days range in the minimum amount of trades possible , in my case i try and make that 1

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  #56 (permalink)
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wldman View Post

I don't know about your assets or what you have on deposit but if you can build a portfolio of stocks that you like and then trade the future against that long basket of stocks you will be able to focus on one market and buying good stocks.

Thatīs an interesting idea which I also thought about some time ago.

But what keeps me from holding assets for long-term is that I do not know the future.
I worked at big companies in a higher position and had to do a lot with budgeting and forecasting.
And I tell you something. We had "all" the information/data, a lot of stuff even on a daily basis, and we had no clue
Sure, if your business is in a trend you extrapolate and adjust here and there a little bit, and you get a scenario which is not so far of if you are lucky...but beware if things change

Thus, now that I am an "outsider" I feel even less able to pick the right companies.

And even if I buy only the SPY and not several stocks and trade the future against it, the time of buying the SPY would be random as I have no proofen strategy for buying the SPY.
I had only hope.

How do you manage this? Have you done this kind of trading already around 2000 and 2008?
I would expect if the index is down for longer, one could not make enough with a short-trade in the futures market to cover the loss on the other side. What do you think?

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  #57 (permalink)
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@wldman , @Qzquant

Do you shoot for 50 % plus every day - no matter what kind of day it is?

Do you only go for it on specific days?

Do you have specific set-ups and as soon as you see them you go into the market?
Or do you start with one contract and when it seems that your market scenario is playing out you add contracts and when market behavior is shifting away from your scenario you reduce contracts?

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  #58 (permalink)
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I should have been more specific, sorry.

It is very hard to trade the scoreboard. I'd suggest taking p/l or net liquidation off of your screen.

To clarify: Taking a significant piece of the days range is a measure of expectation, not a goal per se.


asyx View Post
@wldman , @Qzquant

Do you shoot for 50 % plus every day - no matter what kind of day it is?

Do you only go for it on specific days?

Do you have specific set-ups and as soon as you see them you go into the market?
Or do you start with one contract and when it seems that your market scenario is playing out you add contracts and when market behavior is shifting away from your scenario you reduce contracts?


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  #59 (permalink)
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IMO there are some significant logical and practical fallacies in this approach.

Let me submit that perhaps nowhere else in human history has more money been made over time than in equity ownership.

If you establish the direction of the longer term trend (which is easy) and you trade with the trend you are only "wrong" when the trend reverses. You do get to decide how long you are wrong. How much you make or lose is not really under your control. The shorter the time frame the more likely tiny price moves will convince you that you are wrong. In MANY cases, time frames shorter than swing...people are simply trading noise. This is why trend and range are important. So trend and range...and this is not a method or advice, simply a display of equity ownership or participation.




asyx View Post
Thatīs an interesting idea which I also thought about some time ago.

But what keeps me from holding assets for long-term is that I do not know the future.
I worked at big companies in a higher position and had to do a lot with budgeting and forecasting.
And I tell you something. We had "all" the information/data, a lot of stuff even on a daily basis, and we had no clue
Sure, if your business is in a trend you extrapolate and adjust here and there a little bit, and you get a scenario which is not so far of if you are lucky...but beware if things change

Thus, now that I am an "outsider" I feel even less able to pick the right companies.

And even if I buy only the SPY and not several stocks and trade the future against it, the time of buying the SPY would be random as I have no proofen strategy for buying the SPY.
I had only hope.

How do you manage this? Have you done this kind of trading already around 2000 and 2008?
I would expect if the index is down for longer, one could not make enough with a short-trade in the futures market to cover the loss on the other side. What do you think?


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  #60 (permalink)
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