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My challenge of being a consistent trader
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Created: by asyx Attachments:5

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My challenge of being a consistent trader

  #41 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190703 Prep

NQ:

I expect not too much today as it is a shortened trading day.
In the Indexes, we probably visit new highs - at least for a short time.
This is also the most probable scenario for Friday.

GC:

Same like NQ.
But in regard to comparative analysis move it getting over-stretched.

CL:

If CL does not stabilize around 56,50 now it could easily fall to 54,50.
Above 56,50 we now have a lot of resistance.
A move up I would interpret more like short-covering after the 400 T drop.

Overall:

yields still seem to consolidate, especially short-term ones
Indexes around highs, market internals looking good
HYG came back the last few days a little bit more
Volas seem to come back down
HB/LV still rising
YEN-index came back last few days

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  #42 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190703 Results

all net commissions & fees

# of trades: 6
devils: 0
winning trades 50.0 %
max. cons. wins: 2
max. cons. losses: 3
profit factor: 1.4
max. drawdown: 5.2
daily gain to max. drawdown: 0.1
PeakProfitGiveBack: 0.0 %

What a day! First I got it wrong on the mean GC move then I had a fat finger.
Somehow I finished the day in green, nonetheless.

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  #43 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190704 Results


all net commissions & fees

# of trades: 17
devils: 1
winning trades 64.7 %
max. cons. wins: 5
max. cons. losses: 3
profit factor: 1.7
max. drawdown: 0.7
daily gain to max. drawdown: 1.1
PeakProfitGiveBack: 0.0 %

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  #44 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

Different kind of Days

When it comes to Trading I am fire and flame.

But the book "Mind over Markets" is the most boring piece I had in my hands.
I couldn`t stand it . So I sold it right away.
For someone who "...isnīt a profile trader..." the author filled a lot of pages.

However, doing some more research on different kind of trading days is a good idea:
  • Normal day
  • Normal variation of a normal day
  • Trend day
  • Double distribution day
  • Non-trend day
  • Neutral day

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The following user says Thank You to asyx for this post:
 
  #45 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190705 Prep

Overall:

short-term yields consolidate, longer-term falling
Indexes around highs - NYA not
market internals looking good
HYG came back the last few days
HYG vs. IEF consolidating
Volas seem to come back down - not Gold
HB/LV still rising
YEN-index came back last few days but still upwards
IndiMetals and Crude seem to consolidate

NQ:

In the Indexes, we probably visit new highs - at least for a short time.


GC:

In regard to comparative analysis move it getting over-stretched.
Seems to build trading range 1.380-1.450.
Most correlated over 1 week and 1 month with:

USD/THB
USD/SGD
USD/JPY...seems Asia shifting out of US assets into Gold.

CL:

If CL does not stabilize around 56,50 now it could easily fall to 54,50.
Above 56,50 we now have a lot of resistance.
A move up I would interpret more like short-covering after the 400 T drop.

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  #46 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

Really trading GC?

I love volatility.
But GC does such nasty moves nowadays.
I am used fast moves from NQ, but GC is a biest.
If one has absolutely no time to react to a 50 T move,
it is getting absurd.

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  #47 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190705 Results

all net commissions & fees

# of trades: 42
devils: 1
winning trades 67.4 %
max. cons. wins: 8
max. cons. losses: 2
profit factor: 1.4
max. drawdown: 2.2
daily gain to max. drawdown: 1.0
PeakProfitGiveBack: 0.03 %

Traditionally Friday is my very worst day.
Overall itīs a losing day.
Glad to booked profits this time.
But have to work more on my drawdowns.
Last few day my net profit factor was low - should trade less and/or with less contracts until circumstances are more favorable again.


Last edited by asyx; July 6th, 2019 at 01:05 AM.
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  #48 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

Add metrics

Should include new metrics:

total number of contracts in winning trades / losing trades
-> averaging losers is bad; targeting skewness to the positive side

Average profit per trade

-> targeting more profit with less trades

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  #49 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190708 Results

all net commissions & fees

# of trades: 12
devils: 0
winning trades 66.7 %
max. cons. wins: 4
max. cons. losses: 2
profit factor: 2.3
max. drawdown:2.6
(tonight had a trade with profit of $ 1k + then NQ broke away leaving me with $ 1k -)

daily gain to max. drawdown: 1.3
PeakProfitGiveBack: 0.0 %
Average # contracts in winning/losing trades: 10.5 / 11.5
Average profit per trade: 295

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  #50 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: not important
Favorite Futures: NQ / CL / GC
 
Posts: 81 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 383 given, 75 received

190710 Results


As stats were not that well last week I scaled back contracts.
Of course today every trade was a winner.....


all net commissions & fees

# of trades: 5
devils: 0
winning trades 100.0 %
max. cons. wins: 5
max. cons. losses: 0
profit factor: all winners
max. drawdown: 0.38
daily gain to max. drawdown: 3.4
PeakProfitGiveBack: 0.0 %
Average # contracts in winning/losing trades: 6.8 / 0
Average profit per trade: 258

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