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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View


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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View

  #201 (permalink)
 
Blue Eagle's Avatar
 Blue Eagle 
vancouver British Columbia/Canada
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MiniP View Post
I wouldn't call what I was "seeing" as catching knives I just had a very bullish bias for some reason all the entries we from really weak HL or ema breaks.. which is a valid signal but should of been skipped due to the massive down trend.

I never try to buy bottoms/springs even when there is a valid level. Cause I always fckkk it up ha

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Got it... no offence intended, just a thought... have a great weekend...
Craig

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  #202 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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TradingOgre View Post


One of the best lessons you can ever learn as a trader is knowing when you are not in the right frame of mind to take trades. Realizing that I have missed out on 100% of a 164+++++ point move with no valid reason is pathetic in my mind. That may sound like I am being harsh on myself but sometimes you just got to say it like it is. I spend a ton of time on the weekends and in the evenings backtesting and running the simulator. There is no valid reason why I shouldn't be taking 90% or more of these trades.

Even on the 1000 tick chart there were 4 very distinct clear trading opportunities.



I mean seriously, there are no other ways that are more clear than those in the picture above.

Sigh..... Enough whining.....

Ok, got it off my chest. I am off of my soapbox. Taking a few minute break then we will look for what happens after lunch.

What do I know, but unless you are going to be a hyper scalper it might be interesting to decide if you are a w/trend & pb to trend trader or fader.

I trade pullbacks on trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends using two timeframes - so I know a few times per month I will catch big moves for my trading sessions (9:30am to 12:30pm est).

I see SO many traders that try to trade trends/countertrends/chop/consolidation/range-trading MISS large trend days - they see it but they don't pull the trigger.

Today I shorted 9 times (initial dual entries) and additional add-ons until I hit my max 1.33% of entire index max point move (+95pts-100pts) on the NQ from my initial short entries.

Even last fall when volatility was low I consistently made monthly + profits on at least 1 day of the month in NQ.

I'm just another trader in the mix (trading NQ for decades) - but any method I formulate is completely 100% rule-based and logical and when the market is trending I am VERY aggressive (can have as many as 5 positions open in one direction, but never more than 2 units w/any risk - the rest are at worst b.e. or trailing profit stop) in confirmed trends.

I am VERY non-aggressive in range-bound 'rip/reverse' markets. Like this week - Monday-Thursday were rip and reverse/range-bound NQ markets mostly in the 1st 2 hours. I hit my daily stop loss goal on 2 of them. But that's part of the method. It happens.

This week is a perfect example. Monday up around +$850 per 1 contract. Tuesday full stop out day -$500.00 or so per contract. Wednesday up about +$2.9K per contract. Thursday full stop out day -$850 per contract. Today was nice w/+$6.22K per contract w/two intial shorts hitting my +1.33% max win of +100pts each from initial entries.

It seems you have a decent skillset for trading - I would 'tighten' up your approach though and really lean into getting your method selective and nearly mechanical.

If traders in the NQ are not clearing minimum 3K per month (much more since beginning of year) per contract - they need to work on their approach.

I'm very anal and it typically takes me about 5 months to finalize any intraday trading method I use - but I always trade trend pullbacks on initial trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends w/higher timeframe confirmation.

Frankly, you might be best suited to finding just a few 'techniques' you feel are good for entries and then really refine your trade management and profit-taking parameters. I feel like what I just wrote in the last sentence is probably the very most important part of being a long-term successful intraday trader.

Oh - and winning 22 trades in a row suggests to me you are scalping and thinking about the money WAY too much - your avg. profit net net per trade is VERY low in the NQ for the amount of risk you are probably willing to accept.

I could be entirely wrong - so don't take any of my advice without knowing what your trying to accomplish long term. If you are going to be that guy who scalps and makes a few shekels every day - be the best 'that' guy. I've seen it done before and it's a nice daily paycheck - but nothing significant. But these are just my opinions and are not necessarily meaningful to you and your trading style/situation.

I wouldn't go crazy taking ANY suggestions by posters in this thread - including mine.

Good luck!

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  #203 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
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researcher247 View Post
What do I know, but unless you are going to be a hyper scalper it might be interesting to decide if you are a w/trend & pb to trend trader or fader.

I trade pullbacks on trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends using two timeframes - so I know a few times per month I will catch big moves for my trading sessions (9:30am to 12:30pm est).

I see SO many traders that try to trade trends/countertrends/chop/consolidation/range-trading MISS large trend days - they see it but they don't pull the trigger.

Today I shorted 9 times (initial dual entries) and additional add-ons until I hit my max 1.33% of entire index max point move (+95pts-100pts) on the NQ from my initial short entries.

Even last fall when volatility was low I consistently made monthly + profits on at least 1 day of the month in NQ.

I'm just another trader in the mix (trading NQ for decades) - but any method I formulate is completely 100% rule-based and logical and when the market is trending I am VERY aggressive (can have as many as 5 positions open in one direction, but never more than 2 units w/any risk - the rest are at worst b.e. or trailing profit stop) in confirmed trends.

I am VERY non-aggressive in range-bound 'rip/reverse' markets. Like this week - Monday-Thursday were rip and reverse/range-bound NQ markets mostly in the 1st 2 hours. I hit my daily stop loss goal on 2 of them. But that's part of the method. It happens.

This week is a perfect example. Monday up around +$850 per 1 contract. Tuesday full stop out day -$500.00 or so per contract. Wednesday up about +$2.9K per contract. Thursday full stop out day -$850 per contract. Today was nice w/+$6.22K per contract w/two intial shorts hitting my +1.33% max win of +100pts each from initial entries.

It seems you have a decent skillset for trading - I would 'tighten' up your approach though and really lean into getting your method selective and nearly mechanical.

If traders in the NQ are not clearing minimum 3K per month (much more since beginning of year) per contract - they need to work on their approach.

I'm very anal and it typically takes me about 5 months to finalize any intraday trading method I use - but I always trade trend pullbacks on initial trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends w/higher timeframe confirmation.

Frankly, you might be best suited to finding just a few 'techniques' you feel are good for entries and then really refine your trade management and profit-taking parameters. I feel like what I just wrote in the last sentence is probably the very most important part of being a long-term successful intraday trader.

Oh - and winning 22 trades in a row suggests to me you are scalping and thinking about the money WAY too much - your avg. profit net net per trade is VERY low in the NQ for the amount of risk you are probably willing to accept.

I could be entirely wrong - so don't take any of my advice without knowing what your trying to accomplish long term. If you are going to be that guy who scalps and makes a few shekels every day - be the best 'that' guy. I've seen it done before and it's a nice daily paycheck - but nothing significant. But these are just my opinions and are not necessarily meaningful to you and your trading style/situation.

I wouldn't go crazy taking ANY suggestions by posters in this thread - including mine.

Good luck!

I value all feedback and coaching. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

My background is primarily trading the daily charts in Forex. Look at the charts once a day, make adjustments and walk away. The whole day trading portion with something that moves as fast as Futures is a new concept for me. Sure, I could trade the 6E but where is the fun in trading something you are already comfortable with? If you include some demo time, my experience with Futures is only about 3-4 weeks. This journal is primarily documenting my journey, the different things I see (whether important or not) and what my next steps will be to get better.

My goal certainly is to hold onto trades longer than I have been and to improve on entries and exits. That comes with time and being comfortable with the way price moves especially when you compare it to Forex. It will get better. I am the type of person who will put in however many hours is needed to achieve a goal which is why I was able to retire from the daily job at 45 instead of 65 like most.

As far as the 22 consecutive profitable trades, I posted that just because I thought it was interesting that I was so hard on myself but the choices I had made over the last two weeks were at a minimum decent choices. Certainly not perfect as far as the entries and exits are concerned but at least decent.

I post what I put in this journal in hopes that sometime in the future it will serve as a good read for someone starting out in trading. It also helps me to see what I am missing or doing wrong which allows me to improve.

Within a few months time I expect to be making 10k+ per month. It will happen. It is inevitable.

This journal will serve as evidence of that journey.

Thanks again for taking the time to provide feedback.

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  #204 (permalink)
 
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 teamtc247 
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TradingOgre View Post
So much opportunity.... so much hesitation..... ugh!!



Haha, I know what you mean, the best day of the week and I was reflecting reviewing and studying, ugh. There will be more trades and better days. I was so irritated when I opened up to see what happened at the close. Days like today can be devastating for traders, though.

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  #205 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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You wrote:

"I post what I put in this journal in hopes that sometime in the future it will serve as a good read for someone starting out in trading. It also helps me to see what I am missing or doing wrong which allows me to improve."
------------
Excellent, since you have been doing this for awhile but are new to the NQ - welcome! Above all else when you do your heavy lifting (grunt study work) continue to think in logical/probabilistic ways.

Challenge yourself to be more efficient in the long run. Efficiency doesn't mean the highest win% or trading 8 hours a day either (for the long haul).

The most challenging part of creating a sustainable long-term intraday trading method is the TIME it takes to refine it without adding too many 'filters.'

I still do work on the weekend (usually Sat.) going over my charts, annotating, keeping my journal in email form & running the numbers. I am never satisfied but do allow myself the satisfaction of knowing that good WORK (creating a method with a true 'edge') is the reward itself. And being my own boss.

Personally I wouldn't obsess too much about the minutiae in your online journal unless it really hammers home something important.

I think once a week w/statements or stats is plenty (if you feel the need to do so).

Try and take at least one day off a week too w/the intraday stuff - the brain needs time to evaluate all the nuances over time.

Good luck!

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  #206 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
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Sometimes a change of perspective is a good thing. Normally I keep my charts zoomed in so I can see each individual candle. For part of yesterday and again this morning I zoomed out far enough to be able to see an entire day on the 500 tick chart (thank goodness for wide screen monitors). When I did that, I lost sight of whether each candle is up or down. I could only see the general direction.




And, when you think about it, two of the most important things in trading are determining direction and when that direction could potentially change. How you determine the potential change in direction is left up to the individual trader. There are thousands of indicators out there all trying to either show the direction or show where the direction may turn. Finding what works for you is the true holy grail of trading.

I see a few changes I am going to implement next week. Things, that if I follow them, will help keep me in a profitable trade longer. The key is in actually following the changes.

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  #207 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
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First trade complete:

Initial sell order:


Placed buy order above swing high by a few ticks since it was counter trend.


Price missed triggering by one tick. Thought it was going to turn but....


Order triggered.


Once price had moved 25 ticks in my favor I moved the stop to 3 ticks above entry.


Price came back down and took out the stop and ended up +15 on the trade. I am ok with my decision process on this first trade. Hindsight says I shouldn't have moved the stop but when price moves 25 ticks or more on early morning trading it is usually safe to move the stop where I did.

Where I messed up was in not rejoining the trend when I had the chance and now price is in a nice uptrend.


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  #208 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
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2nd trade.

Entry was good and met all criteria for an early entry on the lower time frame. Higher time frames were still showing bearish. Added some notes as to what I was thinking as the trade progressed.

Only thing that concerned me about the entry was how close it was to the 200 ema.


Price swung a few times testing my patience but I held on and moved the stop to a previous swing. Screen cap was taken before I moved the stop to the swing high that occurred after entering the trade.


Tightened up the stop when price failed to break through the 200 ema



Stop taken out for a +10 trade.

If I would have left my stop back at the previous swing, price would have taken it out there for a loss. While I am not happy with the final result, it was the right decision based on what I was seeing in price movement.

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  #209 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
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My entries.... sssssuuuuuuuuuuccccccckkkkkk today. This trade was just pure luck that it came back down into my favor. Got tired of waiting and put in a buy limit to close it out if it moved in my favor. Finally did. Trade closed. +50 on the trade +75 on the day.

I was so ticked at how I entered the trade I forgot to take screenshots. LOL!

Going to take a break and let things settle down a bit. Maybe find a new watch that can time my entries better.

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  #210 (permalink)
 
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
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Modification to the challenge rules beginning Tuesday 7-31-2018: 1. Achieve 10k per month BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY! No other rules required.

Today's results:





Not fantastic results but positive nonetheless.

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