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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View


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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View

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  #301 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Pulled 9 more ticks. Sort of a quick scalp.


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  #302 (permalink)
 stefan416 
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TradingOgre View Post
Just a visual judgement call. I don't like the minor swings that are really close to the downtrend (in this case). The second one that I missed due to a distraction has a good bit more room between it and the downtrend. Hope that makes sense. More of a personal preference than a must do.

Gotcha. And what about when prices reacted to the 200ema. Should you have just bought off that strong bull bar?

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  #303 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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stefan416 View Post
Gotcha. And what about when prices reacted to the 200ema. Should you have just bought off that strong bull bar?

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Yes, when it broke back above the 200 ema, which was also a bounce off of the 800 ema. Multiple things were screaming at me but I didn't hear them.

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  #304 (permalink)
 stefan416 
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TradingOgre View Post
Yes, when it broke back above the 200 ema, which was also a bounce off of the 800 ema. Multiple things were screaming at me but I didn't hear them.

K so I'm not the only one that happens too lol.

What always trips me up is thinking something is a reversal when it's not or congestion leading to a continuation move which I miss due to the iffy action.

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  #305 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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These markets are as smooth as 50 grit sandpaper. LOL! Low volume made trading tricky yesterday. So far today it seems to be heading the same direction.

GDP numbers this morning at 830 eastern time US. Maybe that is what they are waiting on? Will find out in 3 hours or so.

CL finally picking a direction and making a move up. Entry would have been about an hour ago with a break of the swing high above the yellow line (200 ema) on the 500 tick chart. When the markets are being a pain in the a**, I like to wait for larger more significant swings before trading against the overall trend. Oil inventory numbers at 1030 Eastern time US this morning. Of course hindsight is 20/20 since all of this happened before I was up.




6E dropped nicely in very early morning trading. And I do mean VERY early in the morning. LOL! 5 minute chart below.



NQ is busy chopping up accounts and making people cry. Not me though. I will watch it for a while before jumping in. Maybe it will get better after GDP numbers. Maybe it won't.

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  #306 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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I need to write a new strategy for NT8.... all it will do is delete any counter trend pending orders. LOL! Good day trading but this afternoon I thought I was smart enough to decide where the trend will reverse. The markets had other ideas. Why won't they listen?

Keeping the trade on for now. Needs to break below 7649 ish to make me feel a little smarter.

Next time I even mention anything positive about counter trend trading just

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  #307 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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John Wayne reportedly once said "If you're gonna be dumb ya gotta be tough!" That last trade was wrong in every sense of the word. No need to even post a chart. Just remember to ALWAYS go with the trend.

Three things were wrong with the trade:

1. Counter Trend
2. Had 2 chances to jump out with a 4-6 tick loss. Kept thinking it was going to keep going. Just sat there and watched it swing back against me. Sometimes a small loss is a big win.
3. Trade started during lunch time (approx) markets tend to range during that time (not always). Price came down just enough to take the trade and it never went more than 1 tick green.

Just going to file that one under "Dang! What was I thinking?"

It happens. I am ok with it. Still a great week overall. Just the one small black eye.

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  #308 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Man! I am a slacker when it comes to this journal. I actually made the choice not to post here for a while until I could get my thought process back in line. After my stupid trade of the century a week or so ago, I decided to take a few days off then come back with a fresh mind and attack it once again. I must say, I believe the stupids are cured at least for now. I was able to recoup all of the losses from that trade the day after Labor day and progress has been steady since. While the losses weren't major my engineering mind had a hard time dealing with the utter stupidity of the trade. I am ok with a losing trade if the trade made sense but man that one was wrong on so many levels. LOL!

I wanted to finish step one on the Combine today but market conditions just didn't allow for it. Probably due to the rollover. Seems like I remember it being this way after the last rollover. Not sure but it sounds good. LOL!

Watching the charts, I see something today that I will spend some time on this weekend with BloodHound trying to make it see what I think I see. It looks very promising based on eyeball backtesting done today. If I get it to program right I will post some screenshots this weekend and try to explain what I am seeing. It is only a slight variation to what I am doing now but it looks like it makes the trading 100% mechanical with no room for personal interpretation. Really only two rules for entry. Because of that, it should automate nicely as long as I can get working properly. My plan is to make it an automatic entry but manage the trade manually. First things first, just get it to work correctly.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. We are expecting some moderate winds (around 20-30 mph) and lots of rain from Hurricane Florence this weekend. Subject to change at any moment because we all know how accurate weather prediction is. Either way it shouldn't be anything major for us. I do need to cut the grass today, however. Looking for volunteers? Help an old man out???

My plan moving forward with this journal is to update only on the weekends or in the evening when I am not trading. I will make notes on the charts as the day goes on then post those when I update the journal.

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  #309 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Sure hope the markets wake up in a bit. They seem a bit sluggish overnight based on what I am seeing right now. I want to finish this step 1 on the combine today. Been dragging it out too much.

I tried hard over the weekend to get BloodHound to see what I thought I saw. It turned out to be another one of those things that is working well right now but looking back it really didn't do well in the long term. Someday.... someday.... LOL! As I work on each idea I find that there are several others that need to be checked out. Now that I have a good core to start with, I should be able to work through one or two each weekend. I am trying to develop something that can compensate for variances in volume. In other words, adjust to changing market conditions without human intervention. May have to build a few custom indicators to help BloodHound see some things it cannot right now.

Goals for the week: Keep stupid trades away. Finish step one of the combine (today if markets allow). Continue to grow personal account. Journal a little each day.

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  #310 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Today's price movement was like watching a baseball game. Long periods of nothing then BAM! an 18 point move in less than a minute. Not worth the risk. Every time a set up would begin to build it would either fall apart before I entered or just explode in one direction before you could get set up for entry. Volume is low again. Hope that changes on Tuesday.

No trades for me today. Not even going to try. And, I am good with that decision.

On a side note, I saw first hand the realities of someone trading live for the first time over the last week or so. This person blasted through an evaluation at a prop firm (not TopStep). They hit their profit target in around 4-5 days and had to coast for the last 10-11 days. Once funded and live (this persons first time EVER trading live) it only took him about 1 week to blow the account. The realities of trading live are as real as it will ever get for someone. The mental portion is the absolute toughest part to deal with and trading for a prop firm where you are evaluated for performance every 15 trading days doesn't really help. At first he tried to blame the difference between trading a demo account and a live account. Then he tried to "tweak" his system a little bit and today he posted that he blew the account by hitting the max trailing draw down. My guess is that when he started losing he never backed down on the number of contracts and just kept pushing it hard hoping to get back to break even. Just one home run and everything will be ok. Doesn't make much sense to try and hit a home run when you aren't even getting base hits.

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  #311 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Today's price movement was like watching a baseball game. Long periods of nothing then BAM! an 18 point move in less than a minute. Not worth the risk. Every time a set up would begin to build it would either fall apart before I entered or just explode in one direction before you could get set up for entry. Volume is low again. Hope that changes on Tuesday.

No trades for me today. Not even going to try. And, I am good with that decision.

On a side note, I saw first hand the realities of someone trading live for the first time over the last week or so. This person blasted through an evaluation at a prop firm (not TopStep). They hit their profit target in around 4-5 days and had to coast for the last 10-11 days. Once funded and live (this persons first time EVER trading live) it only took him about 1 week to blow the account. The realities of trading live are as real as it will ever get for someone. The mental portion is the absolute toughest part to deal with and trading for a prop firm where you are evaluated for performance every 15 trading days doesn't really help. At first he tried to blame the difference between trading a demo account and a live account. Then he tried to "tweak" his system a little bit and today he posted that he blew the account by hitting the max trailing draw down. My guess is that when he started losing he never backed down on the number of contracts and just kept pushing it hard hoping to get back to break even. Just one home run and everything will be ok. Doesn't make much sense to try and hit a home run when you aren't even getting base hits.

NQ was a pain in the ass to trade today.. wish I would of gotten the idea to sit out... maybe next time lol

-P

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  #312 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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MiniP View Post
NQ was a pain in the ass to trade today.. wish I would of gotten the idea to sit out... maybe next time lol

-P

Yes it was... Looks like today may be better. Overnight volume looks good. Nice move up that started around 1 am my time. Several other smaller moves since then that followed my system.

Oil had an interesting spike that started around 4 am my time. Fast move up. Only took about an hour to move 1.30+ Kind of sideways since then.

6E has been the yo-yo this morning. Draghi speech and near constant mutterings about Brexit make for some wild rides.

No real scheduled news today to move the markets dramatically. However, there is always the chance for a Trump and Dump. Maybe he will have waffles for breakfast instead of pancakes and someone will take that as meaning he is waffling on tariffs or something. LOL!

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 TradingOgre 
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Although it won't be official until they run the reports at the end of today but step one of the combine is now complete. I needed 159k and hit it with the last trade. Should start step 2 tomorrow.


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  #314 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Ok, all set for step 2. New account all set up and ready to go. Limited to just 3 contracts in the beginning. Scales up quickly. 15 contracts at just 4,500 profit.

Traded 15 contracts some during step 1. Profit/loss moves quickly at 75 bucks a tick. LOL! Had one trade that lasted just over a minute and netted over $2,600. Crazy.

If all goes as planned I should be eligible for a funded account sometime around October 2nd. Planning on attacking this step 2 full on starting Wednesday. With the way the markets are moving right now it should be another great day of trading. Time will tell.

No major news impacting NQ tomorrow. Volume was really good today, let's hope this continues.

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 TradingOgre 
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Up a bit early this morning. I just woke up and was ready to go so I went.

Looking at the overnight chart, price movement was great during the first 2-3 hours of trading then dropped off to some chop. The overnight range was decent at just under 25 points. It is still early so volumes aren't quite as good as I had hoped. I will get a better idea as we get closer to US open.

89 tick chart (I only look at this early in the morning when volume is low):



200 tick chart:


Right now with the way it is chopping, there is no clarity in direction. So I will just wait..... or go make a good breakfast... or both....

I would like a good trending day today to start off step 2 in the right direction. Not like I did when I started step 1. LOL!

CL hasn't moved much overnight. It almost feels like the markets are just waiting for something. Trade war info? Trump talk? Who knows?

6E looks interesting.Would have been a great entry during London open. Would've, Could've, Should've. LOL!

6E 5 minute chart. Entry point highlighted with blue elipse:


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  #316 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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TradingOgre View Post

It almost feels like the markets are just waiting for something. Trade war info? Trump talk? Who knows?

Market completely shrugged off the the latest tariff news so that little edge is now gone. Its either pricing in something we are not even aware of yet or simply a higher timeframe rally back into liquidity. There must still be longer term demand for dollar just look at treasury yields...but that dollar index is showing one heck of a distribution pattern on the daily. Dollar is still bullish but it is difficult to ignore that pattern.


Edit: just noticed you were talking about CL. woops. I was banging on about currencies

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TradingOgre View Post


CL hasn't moved much overnight. It almost feels like the markets are just waiting for something. Trade war info? Trump talk? Who knows?



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  #318 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Larix View Post

Yup. Wednesdays are weird for CL. Still just watching it and not trading CL yet. The markets in general seem to be holding their breath this morning. But it can be that way early in the day. Sometimes trading early can be fun, just not last night. LOL! Glad I slept through most of it.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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mmmmm.... a little spoofing going on?? LOL! Talk about an imbalance. Wonder what will happen when price gets there. Magically move or disappear? That's my guess.


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 tr8er 
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As you saw, no spoofing, 177 contracts traded

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  #321 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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tr8er View Post
As you saw, no spoofing, 177 contracts traded

Yeah. It hit the price, filled about 50 contracts bounced up and then down she went. Fun to watch. Wish I was in a trade and short for that move. Missed the entry back about 2 hours ago. That's what I get for making breakfast. LOL!

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 bobarian 
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TradingOgre View Post
Yup. Just like Forex. Liquidity dries up, spreads widen then the spike and then everyone comes back in. Now to find the first trade.

Great stuff! Did you ever use the vol ladder for forex?

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 TradingOgre 
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bobarian View Post
Great stuff! Did you ever use the vol ladder for forex?

With spot forex the best you can get is tick volume since there isn't any centralized exchange. I never used it but I know people who swear by it. With 6E you get a better picture of volume and interest.

I am watching DOM mostly out of curiosity. They say there is gold hidden in the DOM but I am still trying to find it. LOL!

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 bobarian 
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TradingOgre View Post
With spot forex the best you can get is tick volume since there isn't any centralized exchange. I never used it but I know people who swear by it. With 6E you get a better picture of volume and interest.

I am watching DOM mostly out of curiosity. They say there is gold hidden in the DOM but I am still trying to find it. LOL!

yes, the DOM is tricky...initialy, were using time based charts for forex?
Bob

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 TradingOgre 
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bobarian View Post
yes, the DOM is tricky...initialy, were using time based charts for forex?
Bob

Yes, Time based. For whatever reason Forex seems to work better on time based for Forex. Even for 6E. 5 minute charts are great using my system on Forex.

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 bobarian 
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TradingOgre View Post
Let me know if these attachments are too big. I used the screenshot tool in NT to grab it. I have large 4k monitors and I am not sure how these will display on other monitors.

I turned on the moving averages again but plan on trading a combination of swings along with my normal trading style. I don't use them as a crossover type of trading. Instead they are paired up in two's to give me information about short, medium and longer term trends as well as giving a good visual cue as to where to join a trend.


Im looking at some of your past entries,and ideas.Great stuff!I would love to hear your reasoning on the short idea here.All the mas are still lined up long, and price is riding higher with Higher highs and higher lows.From what ihave seen so far, you look for a trend change when the mas squeeze together,but not crossing yet
Bob

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  #327 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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bobarian View Post
Im looking at some of your past entries,and ideas.Great stuff!I would love to hear your reasoning on the short idea here.All the mas are still lined up long, and price is riding higher with Higher highs and higher lows.From what ihave seen so far, you look for a trend change when the mas squeeze together,but not crossing yet
Bob

That was back when I thought I was smart enough to predict when the market would turn. LOL! It was purely based on price making a double top and then I picked a swing low for entry. Ahhh... ignorance is bliss.

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 TradingOgre 
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I am letting my fear of starting out step 2 in the negative drive my trading decisions. As a result many opportunities missed this morning.

Two trades so far and up about 200 on the day. Which is ok. Focusing on the combine so I am not trading my personal account today.

We will see what I can do after lunch.

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 TradingOgre 
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I am letting my fear of starting out step 2 in the negative drive my trading decisions. As a result many opportunities missed this morning.

Two trades so far and up about 200 on the day. Which is ok. Focusing on the combine so I am not trading my personal account today.

We will see what I can do after lunch.

You know.... a smart person would remember they have a free reset to use if needed. If I had a bad start I could have just reset the account. Should have kept that in my mind while trading. I made a sticky note and stuck it on my monitor so I won't forget. Now, lets go get some!

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 TradingOgre 
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Overthinking it today. Feel like a grew feathers and started clucking.

Yesterday I was trading 15 contracts like a boss today 3 trips me up. LOL! Oh well. Green on the day. Not as much as I wanted but still green. Maybe now that the first day is done I can trade tomorrow like I know I can.



Up 202.80 on the day. Again, at least it isn't red this time. Step one I had to overcome about an 1,100 deficit after day one.

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 TradingOgre 
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Used my freebie reset a little while ago. Oh well. I was only on day 2 of my step 2. Threw up a couple of hail Mary's and the market slapped the dog crap out of me. LOL! I didn't hit the daily loss limit or max trailing drawdown but it was worse than the drawdown I had in step 1. After the crappy trading day today (which there is no reason it should have been that way other than me) it was just simpler to reset it and start over on step 2.

So, here is what I am going to do. I need 9k of profit over 10 trading days to be done at 10 days. Beginning tomorrow, I will only trade 1 contract and only increase it by 1 contract per 3k of profit. This means that from 150-153k balance I will trade 1 contract. From 153-156k will be 2 contracts and 156k until done will be 3 contracts.

My goal is to prove to myself and anyone else trying one of these evaluations or combines as TopStep calls it that just because you can use big leverage doesn't mean you should. And, that even with these tight restrictions on myself, reaching the 9k in profit will still be done within the 10 days of trading needed. Or really close to it.

Every day when they update the reports I will capture a screen shot and post it here. I think I can export my trade history as well so you can see that I am complying with the rules I have set for myself.

Top 3 reasons I had to do a reset today:

1. Using too much leverage. I am allowed 3 contracts at the minimum balance. I was using all 3 for my trading. You really do not need to in order to make it in 10 days.
2. Using too low of a time frame. My first trade this morning I was looking at the 89 tick chart and got scared out of the trade by a spike in price. Had I not been using 3 contracts, the spike would have been minimal and I would have let it ride. This would have allowed me to close the trade a little while later for a small profit. Scared money doesn't make money.
3. Revenge trading. I should have realized that I was pissed when I exited the first trade and a short time later it moved enough in my favor to be able to exit with a small profit. Should have stopped right there and waiting a few hours before taking another shot at it.

Here is what I am doing to fix this:

1. 1 lot per 3k of profit as outlined above.
2. I have deleted the 50 tick and the 89 tick charts from my charts. I even removed it from my menu of time frames.
3. Lowest acceptable time frame is the 200 tick chart although I am leaning more towards the 500 tick chart.
4. Realize when revenge trading is a possibility due to being pissed at myself. I knew when I made the next several trades (only 1 profitable) that I should have stopped but I didn't. Live and learn.
5. Posting full details every day right here for accountability.

Not really mad about having to do this. In reality I think it will be a good thing. It not only will prove that you don't need all the leverage they give you for trading but will show that a reasonable profit is achievable without high risk.

Stay tuned, this should be fun. Thanks for all of the support now lets go do this the right way.

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 TradingOgre 
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It seems to me either I am out of sync or the market is just different right now or maybe a little of both. LOL! Lost 185 today in the combine. Not much and it is manageable but dang this market is tough on my system right now. There is still a bit of a belief issue when it comes to taking trades. Some of it because of the horrible day I had yesterday.

Spent most of the day looking at the 500 and 2000 tick charts. There was a decent entry long but early in the morning. I got caught in a long for my first trade that hung around for a bit which made me think it had a chance then it snatched hope right away from me and took out my stop. Should have moved my stop up when the trade first opened but I figured it was early in the day so give it some room to breathe. Instead of breathing it held its breath until it passed out and fell down. LOL! Second trade made up a little of that loss and I now sit at -185 for the day. Could have made it all back on that trade but well you know.... scared money doesn't make money.

I guess some times the system works really well and others not so much. Especially when I keep getting in my own way. Going to spend the weekend working hard on making improvements. Time to break out the blood hound and make him hunt. I really want to have at least the entries automated so I don't miss any or don't react fast enough to a quick moving market. Time to take a break, grab a shot of G-Fuel and work like a maniac until it wears off.

I may go back to trading early in the morning. Right now, at least, it seems that the early morning hours are producing the best results. Once the US markets open everything goes to crap lately. Still optimistic that I can figure this all out and complete step 2 of the combine sometime between 10 and 12 days.

Next Wednesday is interest rates so that should really be interesting. GDP numbers on Thursday as well.

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 TradingOgre 
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Spent a good bit of time yesterday trying to create a reliable entry signal and I am close but not quite. I will continue on it today. If you are going to rely on something to trigger a trade, it needs to be right 100% of the time. Not winning trades 100% of the time, entering the trade the exact same way you would if you were trading it manually. Last week I thought I had found Nirvana when I put "anaADXMA" on the chart. Sometimes it reacted really well and gave a good tight entry, other times it was very late to the game.

This morning I am looking at an old favorite indicator which is built into NinjaTrader. KAMA or Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. One thing I always liked about this indicator is that it "adapts" to changing market conditions. I actually used this moving average while trading spot Forex. I just started looking at it a few minutes ago and I am trying to build some entry/exit rules around it. When trying to get a computer to understand something you have to consider every possible scenario and tell it exactly how to respond. Things like: Do you exit immediately if it crosses back over the line and the trade is negative or do you only exit on previous swing low? Do you ignore signals that have a "large" candle and what defines a large candle? If you detect a choppy market do you hold onto the last trade and ride the chop or do you exit and wait for it to clear? Etc. Things that we can do intuitively with our brains, computers need to be given explicit instructions on how to respond to every situation.

The lime green line is the KAMA on this chart:




What all of that work did do for me is show me that the problem really isn't the market, it is me. Now I realize that hindsight is always 20/20 but seriously there were a ton of opportunities yesterday that I either didn't see or just flat out ignored. I am looking at it today going "What the Hell was I thinking?" Two things I realized this morning. 1. I still tend to hold onto losing trades way too long. I need to just set the stop a few ticks beyond the last swing and take the loss if it hits it. 2. Once I make a couple of trades for the day, good or bad, my mind starts thinking "Don't give up the profits." or "You really don't want to lose more do you?" depending on whether I am up or down on the day. That self-talk of doubting my trading is killing opportunities for me. I need to squash it now.

Ok, enough of the morning rant. Back to work.

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  #334 (permalink)
 cory 
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Whatever your statergy works in trend day will not work in range day. And a day even divided into 3 diff distinct stages.

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 TradingOgre 
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cory View Post
Whatever your statergy works in trend day will not work in range day. And a day even divided into 3 diff distinct stages.

True. But the goal really isn't to make a system capable of trading during all market conditions it's more of a goal to make it "intelligent" enough to know how to react to those different types of days. No trade? Wait for something specific to occur first? Ride it out? The fun in programming is trying to give a computer enough information to make the best decision under as many different circumstances as possible.

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 Grantx 
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True. But the goal really isn't to make a system capable of trading during all market conditions it's more of a goal to make it "intelligent" enough to know how to react to those different types of days. No trade? Wait for something specific to occur first? Ride it out? The fun in programming is trying to give a computer enough information to make the best decision under as many different circumstances as possible.

There are unlimited variables. Unlimited. When I ran my business I factored slippage into the cost of every product. This was for theft,breakage, and unknowns. Basically as long as those figures didn't start an uprising and gain any momentum, I was content to just write it off. Obviously if the numbers showed too much deviation from norms i would start investigating. Perhaps you should set aside a certain percentage to 'wtf' scenarios that are not worth the effort or your time.

Try to cover too many bases and you get lost in the trees.

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 TradingOgre 
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Grantx View Post
There are unlimited variables. Unlimited. When I ran my business I factored slippage into the cost of every product. This was for theft,breakage, and unknowns. Basically as long as those figures didn't start an uprising and gain any momentum, I was content to just write it off. Obviously if the numbers showed too much deviation from norms i would start investigating. Perhaps you should set aside a certain percentage to 'wtf' scenarios that are not worth the effort or your time.

Try to cover too many bases and you get lost in the trees.

I think of it as more of a constantly evolving set of rules. Build the basics then add conditions based on observed situations but then evaluate those changes for the impact it has on that scenario and what, if any, negative impact it had on other trades. Filtering out one losing trade may make you feel better until you realize that it also filtered out 10 profitable trades.

If done correctly over time the software becomes more efficient at handling as many situations as possible. It takes time and constant effort. At a minimum an automated entry should only take the trades you would have taken without the software. If it takes trades due to a small variation that you normally filter out then you are better off trading manually. That's one of the things I like about BloodHound. Make a change and you can instantly see the difference on the chart. Great for prototyping and testing. Not sure I trust it for live trading.

To me it's worth the effort. Even if you never reach a point of full automation the focused effort in trying to do so will help to solidify your own personal trading rules.

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 TradingOgre 
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Ok, decided to sim trade today to test a few things out on live data and I have to say I am happy with what I see and what I accomplished. Will try it live in the morning.

I have decided that I am going to target a specific tick profit each day and when I reach it, I am done (details below). I will go do something else. While there may be a ton of other opportunities throughout the day, in reality I don't need them to reach my personal goals or to reach the end of step 2 at TST.

On the 500 tick chart below you will see several blue circles. They are where I am looking for entries. The best scenario is 3 of the moving averages (21,60,200 ema's)lined up when the signal triggers. What I am looking at is 1 candle in the direction of the trend followed by one against the trend. Entry is a Buy or sell stop at the high or low of those two candles. Second best is taking the trend direction of the 60 and 200. Those tend to not run as long but are relatively low risk. As you can see from the chart the signals are very reliable.




There was a signal that came in about 6-7 am this morning (chart below) that would have allowed me to hit my profit target even before the markets opened. Works good when you aren't trading big numbers (> 10 contracts) otherwise you get a ton of slippage due to low volume. I plan on taking those trades until the personal account grows too big. The signals come slow enough on the 500 tick to allow for trading near the market open as well. I AM NOT AWARE OF ANY CHARTS LESS THAN 500 TICKS ON NINJATRADER! LOL!




Tentatively, the profit target will be set at 80 ticks. To help keep me in the trade, in order for it to qualify and allow me to quit for the day, it must occur in a single trade. I can have as many other trades as I can handle but in order for me to be able to finish for the day I must let it run. To help with that, I have set the ATM up to move the stop to BE +2 after 24 ticks of profit. Once it does that, I can only move it again based on swings in the price with a clear movement away from that swing. The initial stop will be 40 ticks but that is only initially. As soon as the trade opens I will move it to where it needs to be. Once there, it cannot be moved back. If it stops out, it stops out. Welcome to the real world. As an example, the last trade on the chart above would have qualified for my finished for the day trade based on where price is as I am writing this post. Entry would have been at 7550.50, stop would have been 7546.50 (16 ticks placed under last swing low) and peak price a few minutes ago was 7574.00 (only needed to get to 7570.50). An easy 80 ticks profit. If there was a stop out, and there would have been 1-2 today if I took all the trades, it doesn't count against me as far as reaching the 80 tick profit target. If I get stopped out first, I may consider moving the target out a little to compensate for it. If I do, the trade must reach the new target without me moving it back.

Since I am trading on the much slower 500 tick chart, I should be able to post my trades as they occur during the day. I will post trades from my personal account since I can capture those quickly with NT. TSTrader is a joke in my opinion... a bad joke. Executes orders just fine, the charting is weak. Should have asked for the ninjatrader account... live and learn I guess.

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 TradingOgre 
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Note: On the first chart in the last post, the first trade shows my notes as would have been 2 ticks profit. That was when I was testing out 16 ticks to move to BE +2, under the new rules it would have been a stop out. Forgot to change my notes.

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 Grantx 
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Between 10:59 and 11:04 you had a cluster of candles that were above your moving averages. The averages all lined up in that instance so why didnt you consider that a long signal?

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 TradingOgre 
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Grantx View Post
Between 10:59 and 11:04 you had a cluster of candles that were above your moving averages. The averages all lined up in that instance so why didnt you consider that a long signal?

Forgot to post that rule. Needs to go below the 21 ema after any signal. Best is below the 60. Those were all above after the signal. Trying to get in early and only on reasonable pull backs.

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 Grantx 
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Forgot to post that rule. Needs to go below the 21 ema after any signal. Best is below the 60. Those were all above after the signal. Trying to get in early and only on reasonable pull backs.

Have I got this right?
  1. Moving averages have to line up in order
  2. Price must break back into the 21 MA(considered a pullback).
  3. Trade signal on 21 MA breakout

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 TradingOgre 
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Still a sim trade just posting as an example. If it comes back to take out the stop, so what. At this point it is hit the target or hit the stop.


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 TradingOgre 
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Grantx View Post
Have I got this right?
  1. Moving averages have to line up in order
  2. Price must break back into the 21 MA(considered a pullback).
  3. Trade signal on 21 MA breakout

Looking for a candle in the direction of the trend, one after it in opposite direction. Entry is buy or sell stop at the high or low of the candle pair.

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Still a sim trade just posting as an example. If it comes back to take out the stop, so what. At this point it is hit the target or hit the stop.


What TF?

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 TradingOgre 
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What TF?

500 Tick.

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 bobwest 
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MiniP View Post
What TF?


TradingOgre View Post
500 Tick.

Oh, I see.... "What TF?" means "What Time Frame?" Duh. When I read it, I thought it meant "What the F---?", which didn't seem quite right. This sounds much better.



Bob.

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 TradingOgre 
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bobwest View Post
Oh, I see.... "What TF?" means "What Time Frame?" Duh. When I read it, I thought it meant "What the F---?", which didn't seem quite right. This sounds much better.



Bob.


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 lovetotrade 
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bobwest View Post
Oh, I see.... "What TF?" means "What Time Frame?" Duh. When I read it, I thought it meant "What the F---?", which didn't seem quite right. This sounds much better.



Bob.

Haha Bob, totally thought the same thing! I was like dang that's messed up.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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 TradingOgre 
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Guess it will be a while before first trade. Oh, well. I set an alert to catch any price crossing the 21 or the 60 in case I am distracted.



Volume seems a bit light this morning. Volume yesterday was around the 10 day moving average. We will see if it picks up in a little bit.

Who's ready for a big trending day? Would be nice. Get in, make a move and be done in just a few minutes.

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TradingOgre View Post
Guess it will be a while before first trade. Oh, well. I set an alert to catch any price crossing the 21 or the 60 in case I am distracted.



Volume seems a bit light this morning. Volume yesterday was around the 10 day moving average. We will see if it picks up in a little bit.

Who's ready for a big trending day? Would be nice. Get in, make a move and be done in just a few minutes.

Me! I was in front of my monitors at 7 EST this morning checking out the NQ and ES to see what was happening. It looked like it was indecisive as to where it wanted to go and wasn't breaking in any direction, so I stepped away from the monitors for a bit. I come back 30 minutes later and it's completely broken to the downside it seems to always happen that way. I am pretty new to futures too, and I don't really know how to trade these range days, so I'm just sitting on my hands. It seems like after a big trend day in the ES or NQ, we always get a range day to follow. Like everyone needs some time to process all that action

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 TradingOgre 
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spetscom View Post
Me! I was in front of my monitors at 7 EST this morning checking out the NQ and ES to see what was happening. It looked like it was indecisive as to where it wanted to go and wasn't breaking in any direction, so I stepped away from the monitors for a bit. I come back 30 minutes later and it's completely broken to the downside it seems to always happen that way. I am pretty new to futures too, and I don't really know how to trade these range days, so I'm just sitting on my hands. It seems like after a big trend day in the ES or NQ, we always get a range day to follow. Like everyone needs some time to process all that action

Now... what on earth would make you think this is a range day??




LOL! About all you can do on a range day like today so far is take your normal set ups and grab some profit and jump out. The range isn't so bad you could jump in grab 20-30 ticks and jump out. Sort of a semi-scalp.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Good day of trading so far. Would have hit my 80 tick target if I wasn't scared of this chop fest of a market, especially this morning. Overall I am happy with the refined way of trading. I just need to build more trust in it.

I am a little concerned with TopStep. Several times over the last few months they have had issues with orders being executed correctly or at all. Today it is limit and STOP orders not working correctly on NQ and ES. Really not a big deal on the combine but it is a huge deal on a live account. It's no big deal for them to give you a free reset on the combine but what would they be able to do for you on a live account? I understand computers can have issues but it seems to me to be a regular thing with them.

I am also a bit concerned about the mandatory data fees. $105 per month just for ES,NQ,etc. If you want CL, add another $105. $210 bucks a month is ridiculous. I pay 21 a month total for my NinjaTrader data for ALL CME products. Just seems like they are over charging for this. Maybe I am spoiled with NinjaTrader.

Tomorrow is interest rates in the afternoon. This can make the markets crazy in the morning. I plan on getting up early and seeing how things are going during the European markets. Maybe I can catch a decent move before the jitters set in.

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 researcher247 
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Let me get this straight - respectfully.

You sim trade your account w/1 lots. You live trade your account w/1 lots. You pay for a trading combine and trade small lots (1-3 contracts) - but then last week in the combine you ramp it up to 15 contracts and blow out 'step 1' and do a re-set?

Okay, fine. How in the hell can you keep track of all these variables and then completely re-configure your entire trading strategy over the weekend?

So, NQ has been BEAUTIFUL most of the year. July/August were outsized smooth price action and the week of Labor Day was very nice.

The last two weeks have been 'fitful' and the 1st 2 days of this week somewhat challenging as well.

I'm not pressing you necessarily for specific answers - but you are all over the map. Is this your process for several months (which is fine) until you settle on your non-discretionary rule-based fixed-time interval NQ intraday trading methodology?

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 matthew28 
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TradingOgre View Post
I am also a bit concerned about the mandatory data fees. $105 per month just for ES,NQ,etc. If you want CL, add another $105. $210 bucks a month is ridiculous. I pay 21 a month total for my NinjaTrader data for ALL CME products. Just seems like they are over charging for this. Maybe I am spoiled with NinjaTrader.

"As a funded trader, you are responsible for covering the data fee charged by the exchange"

https://help.futures.topstep.com/hc/en-us/articles/115000174188-Do-I-have-to-pay-exchange-data-fees-

Just to say, TST aren't overcharging, they aren't charging anything.
The trader pays the monthly fees directly to the exchange because the CME terms and conditions classify somebody trading another person's funds as a professional trader, and that's how much they charge a professional trader for their data.

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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researcher247 View Post
Let me get this straight - respectfully.

You sim trade your account w/1 lots. You live trade your account w/1 lots. You pay for a trading combine and trade small lots (1-3 contracts) - but then last week in the combine you ramp it up to 15 contracts and blow out 'step 1' and do a re-set?

Okay, fine. How in the hell can you keep track of all these variables and then completely re-configure your entire trading strategy over the weekend?

So, NQ has been BEAUTIFUL most of the year. July/August were outsized smooth price action and the week of Labor Day was very nice.

The last two weeks have been 'fitful' and the 1st 2 days of this week somewhat challenging as well.

I'm not pressing you necessarily for specific answers - but you are all over the map. Is this your process for several months (which is fine) until you settle on your non-discretionary rule-based fixed-time interval NQ intraday trading methodology?

Nah, I blew it on 3 contracts during step 2 (scaling plan kicks in during step 2). And I didn't really blow it all the way. It was just easier since I was only 2 days into step 2 to do a reset after having such a bad day. It doesn't reset you back to step 1, just resets the account used in step 2. Besides, it was a freebie. Step 1 you can trade whatever you want up to the max. Which is what I did towards the end and it worked just fine.

It's not a complete re-configuration. Mostly a refinement. It's not like I changed every moving average. It's more of a refinement regarding entries, targets and break evens. I realize that you like to test for months and months before making a change and that works just fine for you. For me as long as I am able to see it, I will try it. Preferably live. Usually after only 1 day of sim trading.

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 TradingOgre 
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matthew28 View Post
"As a funded trader, you are responsible for covering the data fee charged by the exchange"

https://help.futures.topstep.com/hc/en-us/articles/115000174188-Do-I-have-to-pay-exchange-data-fees-

Just to say, TST aren't overcharging, they aren't charging anything.
The trader pays the monthly fees directly to the exchange because the CME terms and conditions classify somebody trading another person's funds as a professional trader, and that's how much they charge a professional trader for their data.

I know of others who don't charge at all. The make the funding partners pay for it.

But I understand your point. Thanks.

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 tr8er 
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TradingOgre View Post
I know of others who don't charge at all. The make the funding partners pay for it.

But I understand your point. Thanks.

If they (mes) don't charge data-fees, you can be sure that you are trading a sim-account with sim-data

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  #359 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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tr8er View Post
If they (mes) don't charge data-fees, you can be sure that you are trading a sim-account with sim-data

I don't think so -- if OneUp/MES is paying out money to their funded traders, which they are, then it's not sim. (We know people on FIO who have gotten paid by them.)

As to the professional fee, it must be paid by someone -- unless, of course, someone is just cheating, which I am going to assume is not being done... it would just be too hard to get away with it as the firm grows.

As to who pays it, I personally think the firm should pay it as a cost of doing business, or reimburse the trader if there's some rule that prevents the firm from paying directly. I never understood why TST does not, but if you're a profitable trader I wouldn't think it's a big deal.

Ask me about that if I ever get funded....

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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TradingOgre View Post
Since I am trading on the much slower 500 tick chart, I should be able to post my trades as they occur during the day. I will post trades from my personal account since I can capture those quickly with NT. TSTrader is a joke in my opinion... a bad joke. Executes orders just fine, the charting is weak. Should have asked for the ninjatrader account... live and learn I guess.


TradingOgre View Post
I am a little concerned with TopStep. Several times over the last few months they have had issues with orders being executed correctly or at all. Today it is limit and STOP orders not working correctly on NQ and ES. Really not a big deal on the combine but it is a huge deal on a live account. It's no big deal for them to give you a free reset on the combine but what would they be able to do for you on a live account? I understand computers can have issues but it seems to me to be a regular thing with them.

I have no experience with TSTrader, but I was a little alarmed a while ago when you mentioned that you were using it for your Combine.

Why? Well, it's a TST-branded version of Tradovate, a somewhat new platform and broker. Tradovate's claims to fame, as I understand it, are that they have a mobile (web-based) platform (a good thing) and they don't charge broker commissions (they have a subscription payment model). You do pay the usual other fees that are not from the broker. I don't believe the TST version has any subscription fees, so the total cost per transaction is attractive, and they do push it, for whatever reason.

Certainly, there are traders on FIO who have used them (Tradovate) and who like them for their regular accounts.

I have no knowledge of Tradovate, good or bad, and can't say anything one way or another about them.... Except that they are (relatively) new. If you want to use Tradovate, cool. But on the TST Combine and, eventually, the funded account, I would have chosen a well-established platform that I knew well (which would be NT or Sierra Chart for me, and there are others), and which would use a data, trade execution service and broker that I knew more about.

This is perhaps just me, but some things make me suddenly turn very cautious.

I do not want to be unfair to either Tradovate or TST, but in some areas I generally let other people try the new things, that's all. Call me chicken.

If you want to stay with TSTrader, fine with me. But if not, you might want to see if you can switch, once you get funded (as I am assuming you will.) They do want you to stay with the platform you passed the Combine with, which is natural, but I think they have allowed a switch before if someone is very familiar with some other platform. I'm not sure what they do currently.

I don't know for sure why you have had these issues with the TST account, and you may never have them again, but if you were on the NT platform you would be going through NT Brokerage and Rithmic....

Just a thought.

Bob.

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 TradingOgre 
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bobwest View Post
I have no experience with TSTrader, but I was a little alarmed a while ago when you mentioned that you were using it for your Combine.

Why? Well, it's a TST-branded version of Tradovate, a somewhat new platform and broker. Tradovate's claims to fame, as I understand it, are that they have a mobile (web-based) platform (a good thing) and they don't charge broker commissions (they have subscription payment model). You do pay the usual other fees that are not from the broker. I don't believe the TST version has any subscription fees, so the total cost per transaction is attractive, and they do push it, for whatever reason.

Certainly, there are traders on FIO who have used them (Tradovate) and who like them for their regular accounts.

I have no knowledge of Tradovate, good or bad, and can't say anything one way or another about them.... Except that they are (relatively) new. If you want to use Tradovate, cool. But on the TST Combine and, eventually, the funded account, I would have chosen a well-established platform that I knew well (which would be NT or Sierra Chart for me, and there are others), and which would use a data, trade execution service and broker that I knew more about.

This is perhaps just me, but some things make me suddenly turn very cautious.

I do not want to be unfair to either Tradovate or TST, but in some areas I generally let other people try the new things, that's all. Call me chicken.

If you want to stay with TSTrader, fine with me. But if not, you might want to see if you can switch, once you get funded (as I am assuming you will.) They do want you to stay with the platform you passed the Combine with, which is natural, but I think they have allowed a switch before if someone is very familiar with some other platform. I'm not sure what they do currently.

I don't know for sure why you have had these issues with the TST account, and you may never have them again, but if you were on the NT platform you would be going through NT Brokerage and Rithmic....

Just a thought.

Bob.

Originally I thought there might be some sort of conflict since I have my personal account with NT brokerage and I still want to trade my personal account even when funded. It was their preferred interface so I just went with it. What I have been doing with the TSTrader is just using the DOM. I place my pending orders on my account first then add them to TStrader. Pretty easy to manage especially since I am on the 500 tick charts now. Plenty of time to react.

It is buggy on the charting end of things. It won't load enough candles on a chart by default to properly calculate my moving averages. You have to compress the timeline to force it to load enough to be accurate. Bad part is you have to do that every time you change tabs. But since I have my feed from NT it really isn't a major pain. I do actually like their DOM ladder better than NT. It's very easy to see where the larger orders are sitting, if I ever get to the point of knowing enough to use them. LOL!

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 TradingOgre 
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Nice trend up last night. Maybe I should have stayed up late instead of getting up early. LOL! Current trend appears to be weakening. Seems to be struggling with this last push up. The old me would have put in a sell stop down around 7615 but that would be counter trend and we don't do that anymore. Will wait for something to develop.




Interest rates today at 2pm eastern. Will probably stop trading around 1 today and not pick it up again until Thursday.

Thursday will bring GDP numbers pre-market so we will stay away from that as well. Restart a few minutes after the announcement.

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 TradingOgre 
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Biggest drawback to larger time frames.... It's easier to turn a speed boat than a cargo ship. LOL! There were set ups just no follow through to take out the pending order. FOMO wants to kick in and just say screw it, go short. But I can resist.




Looking for it to pick up for a little while today then get real quiet before interest rates.

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 TradingOgre 
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Watched a guy live on youtube drop 10k on NQ on Friday. He's not doing much better today. I don't understand some peoples trading style but man this dude needs to drop back to demo and figure it out. He was up 600 bucks a little while ago but has let it drift back negative, then he added 4 more contracts short now he is down 1300 bucks. No stop just a profit target. It's like watching a train wreck. I hope it turns around for him but looks like today is a day to be long not short.

Great volume so far since market open. Could be a great day of trading.

Hope everyone has a tremendous week.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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TradingOgre View Post
...

My goal is to prove to myself and anyone else trying one of these evaluations or combines as TopStep calls it that just because you can use big leverage doesn't mean you should. And, that even with these tight restrictions on myself, reaching the 9k in profit will still be done within the 10 days of trading needed. Or really close to it.

Every day when they update the reports I will capture a screen shot and post it here. I think I can export my trade history as well so you can see that I am complying with the rules I have set for myself...

Hi TradingOgre,

Have not seen anything yet. Have you changed your mind about it? Thanks

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Watched a guy live on youtube drop 10k on NQ on Friday. He's not doing much better today. I don't understand some peoples trading style but man this dude needs to drop back to demo and figure it out. He was up 600 bucks a little while ago but has let it drift back negative, then he added 4 more contracts short now he is down 1300 bucks. No stop just a profit target. It's like watching a train wreck. I hope it turns around for him but looks like today is a day to be long not short.

Great volume so far since market open. Could be a great day of trading.

Hope everyone has a tremendous week.

might be able to get some back if we close this gap other then that hes SOL.. closed at a 2 week high, wouldn't be surprised if we ran up the yearly high this week. Only 30ish pts away


-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #367 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Hi TradingOgre,

Have not seen anything yet. Have you changed your mind about it? Thanks

Haven't really thought about it much. Getting lazy when it comes to this journal. I find myself focusing 100% on trading and not thinking about posting here much.

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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
might be able to get some back if we close this gap other then that hes SOL.. closed at a 2 week high, wouldn't be surprised if we ran up the yearly high this week. Only 30ish pts away


-P

Poor guy ended up dropping another 4k+ today. Had to stop watching it, I was having heart palpitations watching his money float away like that. I tried to figure out how he makes his trades but it just doesn't make any sense to me. It looks like he was blindly buying at support and selling at resistance. Works great in a choppy market. Sucks in a trending one.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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TradingOgre View Post
Haven't really thought about it much. Getting lazy when it comes to this journal. I find myself focusing 100% on trading and not thinking about posting here much.

What made you lost your interest in this journal? You seemed very motivated at the beginning and i must admit i took some pleasure reading your journey.

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 Rrrracer 
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TradingOgre View Post
Poor guy ended up dropping another 4k+ today. Had to stop watching it, I was having heart palpitations watching his money float away like that. I tried to figure out how he makes his trades but it just doesn't make any sense to me. It looks like he was blindly buying at support and selling at resistance. Works great in a choppy market. Sucks in a trending one.


LOL post the link... am I a sociopath for wanting to see someone suck at trading more than I do right now?

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TraderEX
 
 
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TradingOgre View Post
I think I did pretty good for my first day of trading Futures. 4 trades and all were profitable. I was very conservative with my entries and as a result I missed several good opportunities. The speed of NQ was quite an adjustment for me coming from the Forex world and primarily EURUSD. I think I have a good understanding of where to place stops and what to expect when in a trade.

Trade 1: Decent entry but I closed it early because I am a bit superstitious and I wanted my first live Futures trade to be profitable. LOL!
Trade 2: Almost got stopped out. It came within 2 ticks of closing the trade but fortunately it made the turn and came on down. Didn't get much out of that trade but it was green nonetheless
Trade 3: Much better entry, trade turned green quickly but then found some resistance and bounced up and took me out at a reasonable profit. My stop placement on this trade was really good. Right after the trade ended it continued to move in the wrong direction.
Trade 4: Much more like it. Good entry and better exit. Most profitable trade of the day.

I finished the day out up $850 but could have done much better. Learned a few things about trading NQ live today and will use these Friday in my trading. I plan on being a bit more aggressive with my entries and I plan on trading longer than I did today. I think I only had about 3-4 hours in front of the screen.

I didn't grab any screenshots of my trades today because I was very focused on what was going on and what I needed to do next. Here is a shot of the final profit for the day.


Sounds great. I had the same problem posting the screenshots as they came and eventually settled on just taking the screenshot, takes a second, and then post when I was breaking from staring intensely at the screen or EOD. I break for a few minutes after each closed trade. I just do better that way.

Great post, looking forward to see the rest of the entries. I'm new here.

Keep up the good

thank you-

EX

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TraderEX
 
 
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TradingOgre View Post
Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines? I have never actually traded with them but I see some interesting opportunities on NQ for trading trend line breaks.




I am done trading for the day so I am trying to find a way to reliably enter counter trend or to have confirmation of going with the trend.

Thanks for the input.

Don't leave home without them. They so work for me. I read an article that the financial news writer stated that 70% of break out attempts through an established support/resistance line will fail. i was unable to confirm this information anywhere and couldn't find the article when I tried to find this again.
The screen shot is ES and the colored horizontal thick lines are my manually installed stops. Unless I am sure of my stop placement I wait for a confirmation bounce. Love the thread.

EX

I could not find a shot of them in use. I use the ROY G BIV code and set up the red on the inner most trough to peak wave, the first one wave is always the high low of the first candle that closes at 935 est. when that wave is busted by moving outside of it, I use the orange line next... repeat. best use for me is a fade trade. I us that 70% theory and agree with it now. So a fade will win twice and a breakout call will win once, in the long run of course.

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TraderEX
 
 
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ninjus View Post
Ohhh shiney!

How much is it?

I wonder does it work with gomindicators?

I have zero knowledge of these purchased things. Is this correct? You bought something for $795 and trade manually?

Thank you-

EX

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TraderEX
 
 
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I'm not used to asking but you have been so accommodating with other requests. Could you give a trade by trade or daily profit loss for the entire step one. my son is looking and I would like to some raw data on the success side tired of looking at losers.

I Tradovate, their claim to fame is not the mobile app it the deep discount an average Joe like me can get without having to negotiate. I average 900 rt's a month and that's for $199 flat by the month and 179 for the month but by the year., no other charges. the platform is free. I pay 2 dollars to the CME for top of book only, I do not DOM but if I did it would be $7 for 10 levels.

One post was about if he could last long enough to to survive? I have kept a piece of paper and recorded all his personal account reports. Not only is his reported winning percentage above normal he is way ahead on his margin; way ahead.

I saw that October 2 was the day you get funded. Does that start tomorrow and will you be posting daily, weekly or monthly reports. I agree these threads take up much time if you let it.

I've seen some state that the personal account will be traded along side the funded account. Please explain why a talented trader would split with another whe the day rates for NQ scalping are $500. Wouldn't just scaling that produce so much more than sharing and wouldn't you benefit from the simpler action of one account.(are both accounts trading the same with the same decision so really it is one account)

Awesome-

EX

I started a journal that scalps the ES.

You have the best emoji's EVER

Best of luck my friend with your funding.

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 TradingOgre 
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Rrrracer View Post
LOL post the link... am I a sociopath for wanting to see someone suck at trading more than I do right now?

[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-KpLxgbQtkmLOuelDDn9CQ[/yt]

He deleted his stream from yesterday. Not sure when he will go live again. The one from Friday is still there. It's over 11 hours long. No sound. You can scroll through and watch the carnage.

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 TradingOgre 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
What made you lost your interest in this journal? You seemed very motivated at the beginning and i must admit i took some pleasure reading your journey.

I found that I was thinking too much about the journal and losing focus on my trading. I thought about just recording my trades during the week and then on the weekend use that recording to be able to go back and comment. Not sure yet. Need to find a balance point that allows me to post and I still stay focused on trading.

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 TradingOgre 
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TraderEX View Post
I have zero knowledge of these purchased things. Is this correct? You bought something for $795 and trade manually?

Thank you-

EX

Yes. Mostly to prototype systems. It allows me to make a change and very quickly see the results on the chart. So, if I add indicator X I can quickly modify the system with their software and instantaneously see the results on the chart. You can use it for full automation as well. Haven't done that yet.

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 TradingOgre 
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I'm not used to asking but you have been so accommodating with other requests. Could you give a trade by trade or daily profit loss for the entire step one. my son is looking and I would like to some raw data on the success side tired of looking at losers.

I Tradovate, their claim to fame is not the mobile app it the deep discount an average Joe like me can get without having to negotiate. I average 900 rt's a month and that's for $199 flat by the month and 179 for the month but by the year., no other charges. the platform is free. I pay 2 dollars to the CME for top of book only, I do not DOM but if I did it would be $7 for 10 levels.

One post was about if he could last long enough to to survive? I have kept a piece of paper and recorded all his personal account reports. Not only is his reported winning percentage above normal he is way ahead on his margin; way ahead.

I saw that October 2 was the day you get funded. Does that start tomorrow and will you be posting daily, weekly or monthly reports. I agree these threads take up much time if you let it.

I've seen some state that the personal account will be traded along side the funded account. Please explain why a talented trader would split with another whe the day rates for NQ scalping are $500. Wouldn't just scaling that produce so much more than sharing and wouldn't you benefit from the simpler action of one account.(are both accounts trading the same with the same decision so really it is one account)

Awesome-

EX

I started a journal that scalps the ES.

You have the best emoji's EVER

Best of luck my friend with your funding.

I would have been funded at this point if I actually traded the account every day. Been spending more time focusing on my personal account. Right now I am about 50% done with step 2 on both trading days and profit.

As far as why would someone do something like TopStep when they are doing well in a personal account: For me it is the challenge more than anything. Their rules are very strict and I wanted to see if I could trade under those rules. Once funded, I am not sure how long I will keep the account.

I will look to see what data I can pull from Step 1. I will try to remember to do that later today. Right now it's trading time.

If your son tries one of these combines, plan on at least 2 months to get through both steps. Remember, the number of days for each step is the minimum. You basically have to reach 6% profit 2 times to get through the combine. Don't let the number of days pull you out of your normal trading style. It did for me and as a result the profit/loss was all over the place. Step 2 I am doing much better with avoiding that. Pay close attention to the rules in step 2, they are very strict.

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 TradingOgre 
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One of those sleepless nights. Too many ideas running through my head. Oh well, it's not like I have to get up and go to work in the morning. Retirement has its privileges.

Took a look at the charts. Wondering if I should go short at 7666.00. Anyone superstitious? LOL!

In all seriousness, it looks like it wants to drop but hasn't made the commitment yet. See chart:




Someone posted a nice news indicator in the NT8 section. It is on the chart above. You can filter out a country but only one. I think I will modify it this weekend so I can pick only one country. Would be nice to only see news related to USD.

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 ninjus 
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TradingOgre View Post
One of those sleepless nights. Too many ideas running through my head. Oh well, it's not like I have to get up and go to work in the morning. Retirement has its privileges.

Took a look at the charts. Wondering if I should go short at 7666.00. Anyone superstitious? LOL!

In all seriousness, it looks like it wants to drop but hasn't made the commitment yet. See chart:




Someone posted a nice news indicator in the NT8 section. It is on the chart above. You can filter out a country but only one. I think I will modify it this weekend so I can pick only one country. Would be nice to only see news related to USD.

Or Italy


Marcus Aurelius
"Not to assume it's impossible because you find it hard. But to recognize that if it's humanly possible, you can do it too"

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 Rrrracer 
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Damn night owls....

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 TradingOgre 
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Rrrracer View Post
Damn night owls....




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 TradingOgre 
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Decided to make today a day of experimenting. Why not.... wasn't really feeling like trading live anyway. I found that if I trade live when I am not in the right frame of mind, it gets expensive. LOL!

Tried some scalping... more like sort of scalping. I wasn't targeting 2-4 ticks I wanted to see what I could get out of a trade but do so from a lower time frame. The entry was basically the same as higher time frames with one small exception which is a new entry based on some work I did over the weekend. It showed promise as a way to get into a trade early after a change of direction and also to be able to get into a trade after a trend had started. Not ready to release it yet since I haven't proven it to be worthwhile on a live account. But it is so simple an Ogre can do it.




I haven't checked to see how many trades I tried mostly because I was playing with different ideas on how to stay in the trade longer without having to babysit it. I kind of liked trading this way since it kept me busy most of the time. Since I was on a lower time frame I could take a larger position size relative to the account size since the stop usually was pretty small. I had two losing trades that equated to about 2-3% loss on each one. It more than made up for it on the next trade so I am ok with the drawdown. Now, the question is...... can he duplicate it on a live account? I doubt that I would take as large a position size as I did in sim. No real need to in order to make some decent money. We shall find out tomorrow. Will probably start with just 1-3 contracts.

One of the things that seemed to work really well today was to enter a trade, wait for the auto break even to kick in around +15 ticks, then wait for one of the moving averages to move ahead of the stop and then I would assign that stop to the moving average. Found this by accident. Didn't know that you could do that in NT. Once I did that, I would just let it run. Sometimes I would use the 60 ema initially then after a decent move I would change it to the 21 ema. Normally I would set the stop 1-2 ticks behind the moving average. I would close a trade manually if I saw a potential reversal setting up. I only remember doing that twice.

I didn't take all trades since I was playing with the different settings but the results look good for 5 contracts:



Tomorrows game plan:
1. Trade the lower time frame trading like I posted above until a higher time frame set up shows up. One of the things I am finding very difficult on higher time frame trading is staying engaged and focused while waiting for a set up. I think this will help.
2. Monitor the 1000 and 2000 tick charts for longer term entries.
3. If I happen to be in a trade in the right direction when a higher time frame shows up, wait for the auto break even to kick in, then wait for the moving average on a higher time frame to get into position and assign that stop to the higher time frame moving average.

Today was choppy so trading this way was really helpful in grab and go style of trading. When it trends, as long as I leave it alone it should do well also since price should stay away from the moving average most of the time.

Yeah, I know my trading seems a bit A.D.D. I am ok with it. So, get in, sit down, buckle up and hold on. LOL!

It will all make more sense tomorrow. May even record it to help clear up some of the fog.

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 Blue Eagle 
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TradingOgre View Post
Decided to make today a day of experimenting. Why not.... wasn't really feeling like trading live anyway. I found that if I trade live when I am not in the right frame of mind, it gets expensive. LOL!

Tried some scalping... more like sort of scalping. I wasn't targeting 2-4 ticks I wanted to see what I could get out of a trade but do so from a lower time frame. The entry was basically the same as higher time frames with one small exception which is a new entry based on some work I did over the weekend. It showed promise as a way to get into a trade early after a change of direction and also to be able to get into a trade after a trend had started. Not ready to release it yet since I haven't proven it to be worthwhile on a live account. But it is so simple an Ogre can do it.





.

Seems like a guy could almost squeak by making that in a day...
Best of luck...

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TraderEX
 
 
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TradingOgre View Post
Yes. Mostly to prototype systems. It allows me to make a change and very quickly see the results on the chart. So, if I add indicator X I can quickly modify the system with their software and instantaneously see the results on the chart. You can use it for full automation as well. Haven't done that yet.

I trade manually. My screen has split screen. On the right, 5 minute candle since the opening of the day. On the left, my screen has volume meaning contracts executed.

I see no value in back testing since it is only a review of the past. I realize that the past is indicative of the future but only after many samples. I trade in seconds to minutes only, when i can. If my trade goes longer, I am on tilt and on the wrong side.

thanks for the advice.

EX

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TraderEX
 
 
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TradingOgre View Post
Decided to make today a day of experimenting. Why not.... wasn't really feeling like trading live anyway. I found that if I trade live when I am not in the right frame of mind, it gets expensive. LOL!

Tried some scalping... more like sort of scalping. I wasn't targeting 2-4 ticks I wanted to see what I could get out of a trade but do so from a lower time frame. The entry was basically the same as higher time frames with one small exception which is a new entry based on some work I did over the weekend. It showed promise as a way to get into a trade early after a change of direction and also to be able to get into a trade after a trend had started. Not ready to release it yet since I haven't proven it to be worthwhile on a live account. But it is so simple an Ogre can do it.




I haven't checked to see how many trades I tried mostly because I was playing with different ideas on how to stay in the trade longer without having to babysit it. I kind of liked trading this way since it kept me busy most of the time. Since I was on a lower time frame I could take a larger position size relative to the account size since the stop usually was pretty small. I had two losing trades that equated to about 2-3% loss on each one. It more than made up for it on the next trade so I am ok with the drawdown. Now, the question is...... can he duplicate it on a live account? I doubt that I would take as large a position size as I did in sim. No real need to in order to make some decent money. We shall find out tomorrow. Will probably start with just 1-3 contracts.

One of the things that seemed to work really well today was to enter a trade, wait for the auto break even to kick in around +15 ticks, then wait for one of the moving averages to move ahead of the stop and then I would assign that stop to the moving average. Found this by accident. Didn't know that you could do that in NT. Once I did that, I would just let it run. Sometimes I would use the 60 ema initially then after a decent move I would change it to the 21 ema. Normally I would set the stop 1-2 ticks behind the moving average. I would close a trade manually if I saw a potential reversal setting up. I only remember doing that twice.

I didn't take all trades since I was playing with the different settings but the results look good for 5 contracts:



Tomorrows game plan:
1. Trade the lower time frame trading like I posted above until a higher time frame set up shows up. One of the things I am finding very difficult on higher time frame trading is staying engaged and focused while waiting for a set up. I think this will help.
2. Monitor the 1000 and 2000 tick charts for longer term entries.
3. If I happen to be in a trade in the right direction when a higher time frame shows up, wait for the auto break even to kick in, then wait for the moving average on a higher time frame to get into position and assign that stop to the higher time frame moving average.

Today was choppy so trading this way was really helpful in grab and go style of trading. When it trends, as long as I leave it alone it should do well also since price should stay away from the moving average most of the time.

Yeah, I know my trading seems a bit A.D.D. I am ok with it. So, get in, sit down, buckle up and hold on. LOL!

It will all make more sense tomorrow. May even record it to help clear up some of the fog.

I am a registered nurse as a profession(90k): retired.. The ADD you refer to is actually, ADHD. An afflicted person is born with this. The DSM-IV, makes the distinction between adolescents and adults. The ADD is attention deficit disorder and the ADHD is adult deficit hyperactivity disorder. Often confused with TYPE A personalty. Only type A belongs here. I am type A, I belong here.

The screening test is long but the result is, do you start many projects and finish few and do you go from thought to thought rapidly. Once, again, I am type A.

Love the thread-

EX

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ninjus View Post
Or Italy

LUKE 1:37 all things possible with GOD

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 TradingOgre 
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TraderEX View Post
LUKE 1:37 all things possible with GOD

This is a trading journal not bible study. Keep the focus on trading please.

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Decided to make today a day of experimenting. Why not.... wasn't really feeling like trading live anyway. I found that if I trade live when I am not in the right frame of mind, it gets expensive. LOL!

Tried some scalping... more like sort of scalping. I wasn't targeting 2-4 ticks I wanted to see what I could get out of a trade but do so from a lower time frame. The entry was basically the same as higher time frames with one small exception which is a new entry based on some work I did over the weekend. It showed promise as a way to get into a trade early after a change of direction and also to be able to get into a trade after a trend had started. Not ready to release it yet since I haven't proven it to be worthwhile on a live account. But it is so simple an Ogre can do it.




I haven't checked to see how many trades I tried mostly because I was playing with different ideas on how to stay in the trade longer without having to babysit it. I kind of liked trading this way since it kept me busy most of the time. Since I was on a lower time frame I could take a larger position size relative to the account size since the stop usually was pretty small. I had two losing trades that equated to about 2-3% loss on each one. It more than made up for it on the next trade so I am ok with the drawdown. Now, the question is...... can he duplicate it on a live account? I doubt that I would take as large a position size as I did in sim. No real need to in order to make some decent money. We shall find out tomorrow. Will probably start with just 1-3 contracts.

One of the things that seemed to work really well today was to enter a trade, wait for the auto break even to kick in around +15 ticks, then wait for one of the moving averages to move ahead of the stop and then I would assign that stop to the moving average. Found this by accident. Didn't know that you could do that in NT. Once I did that, I would just let it run. Sometimes I would use the 60 ema initially then after a decent move I would change it to the 21 ema. Normally I would set the stop 1-2 ticks behind the moving average. I would close a trade manually if I saw a potential reversal setting up. I only remember doing that twice.

I didn't take all trades since I was playing with the different settings but the results look good for 5 contracts:



Tomorrows game plan:
1. Trade the lower time frame trading like I posted above until a higher time frame set up shows up. One of the things I am finding very difficult on higher time frame trading is staying engaged and focused while waiting for a set up. I think this will help.
2. Monitor the 1000 and 2000 tick charts for longer term entries.
3. If I happen to be in a trade in the right direction when a higher time frame shows up, wait for the auto break even to kick in, then wait for the moving average on a higher time frame to get into position and assign that stop to the higher time frame moving average.

Today was choppy so trading this way was really helpful in grab and go style of trading. When it trends, as long as I leave it alone it should do well also since price should stay away from the moving average most of the time.

Yeah, I know my trading seems a bit A.D.D. I am ok with it. So, get in, sit down, buckle up and hold on. LOL!

It will all make more sense tomorrow. May even record it to help clear up some of the fog.

We have a very similar method of trading I'm curious if you have thought about waiting to exit trades until ema's cross? The reason I say this is sometime's prices respect's all the ema's but needs a deep P/B sometimes to the 200 and as painful as it is to hold a deeper P/B its even more painful to close out only to see the trend continue once buyers found a cheaper price.

Now when I say ema's cross this would only apply to the 21/60 as the 200 would leave you in a deep deep hole.
For example look at 10:46 today if you were long say at 7693 @ 10:31 an ideal stop would of been 7680 area now if you look at the P/B and cross over that would of been a perfect chance to exit/reverse.

The NQ is a monster and sometimes it respect a 10 pt stop and then sometimes it seems like you need a 20 pt stop.
I'm starting to think it would be wiser to trade with wide open stops and only exit when price shows its turning but to be the devils advocate would this realistically be possible during a trade to not let emotions move that s/l +25 pts?

Thinking aloud!

on the ADD/ADHD topic, try listing to foreign music I have no idea why it helps but I've been listing to french/spanish/russian and it seems like I can focus much better.. no idea why!?


-P

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  #390 (permalink)
 matthew28 
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MiniP View Post
try listing to foreign music I have no idea why it helps but I've been listing to french/spanish/russian and it seems like I can focus much better.. no idea why!?

Interesting. I listened to Edith Piaf (French), and liked that. I have tried learning French but I seem to forget it as quickly as I learn it so I find just the background noise of unknown language relaxing without my brain picking up on and being distracted by the words. I do use headphones when trading though so that could be a part of it as I didn't like the feeling of people shouting in my ear when listening to singing in English.

Dr Steenbarger mentioned somewhere that he liked listening to the early minimalist music of Philip Glass, Music in Twelve Parts; I bought it as I like that kind of thing. I enjoy listening to it but again find it too intense for trading/or listening with headphones and it just makes me feel feel edgy, like drinking a very strong espresso.

(Drifting off topic I know but just for background noise to help avoid external distracting sounds and help concentration these sites are nice:
https://simplynoise.com/
https://rain.simplynoise.com/
I like the sound of the rain but they recommend white or pink noise for aiding concentration, studying)

Trading, ideally structured, is a vehicle for expanding consciousness, not damaging it. - Brett Steenbarger
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 MiniP 
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matthew28 View Post
Interesting. I listened to Edith Piaf (French), and liked that. I have tried learning French but I seem to forget it as quickly as I learn it so I find just the background noise of unknown language relaxing without my brain picking up on and being distracted by the words. I do use headphones when trading though so that could be a part of it as I didn't like the feeling of people shouting in my ear when listening to singing in English.

Dr Steenbarger mentioned somewhere that he liked listening to the early minimalist music of Philip Glass, Music in Twelve Parts; I bought it as I like that kind of thing. I enjoy listening to it but again find it too intense for trading/or listening with headphones and it just makes me feel feel edgy, like drinking a very strong espresso.

(Drifting off topic I know but just for background noise to help avoid external distracting sounds and help concentration these sites are nice:
https://simplynoise.com/
https://rain.simplynoise.com/
I like the sound of the rain but they recommend white or pink noise for aiding concentration, studying)

I normally listen with headphones as any other noise will pull my attention away from what I'm doing but lately when I listen to music I can't understand I don't have any problems. My only reasoning behind this is my brain isn't trying to comprehend what the music is saying and it allows me to focus on the task at hand... but im no DR.

I also find listening to the same song on repeat has helped ... I'll listen to the same song for hours and almost get in a rhythm with the music and get more done.

-P

(sorry to get off topic )

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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
I normally listen with headphones as any other noise will pull my attention away from what I'm doing but lately when I listen to music I can't understand I don't have any problems. My only reasoning behind this is my brain isn't trying to comprehend what the music is saying and it allows me to focus on the task at hand... but im no DR.

I also find listening to the same song on repeat has helped ... I'll listen to the same song for hours and almost get in a rhythm with the music and get more done.

-P

(sorry to get off topic )

Not off topic in my opinion. I appreciate the info and ideas. This all relates to trading.

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 TradingOgre 
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Still refining the rules a bit but today was a big success. This mornings results trading between 1 and 3 contracts. Going to trade some sim this afternoon. Don't want to fool with it too much and give it all back. I have a few things I want to try. I want to tighten up the initial stop some to reduce risk but I don't want to do it too much and get a bunch of small stop outs. I will have to test it manually because I don't want it to trigger unless it closes beyond my stop point. No spikes.



I realize that today was a big trending day. Will have to wait for a choppy day also before I call this one a winner.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Been working on the trade signals using Blood Hound. Real simple today. Wait for pull back, go short. LOL! Scrolling back there is some weakness during transitions (i.e. trending up to trending down). Need to work on a way to avoid most of these. Maybe two stop outs, then jump to higher time frame or something.



Still working on getting the initial stops tighter.

YM down 370
ES down 38
NQ down 186
CL down 2.04

Man what a day. Hope no one was long. LOL! And the bloodbath just continues.

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Been working on the trade signals using Blood Hound. Real simple today. Wait for pull back, go short. LOL! Scrolling back there is some weakness during transitions (i.e. trending up to trending down). Need to work on a way to avoid most of these. Maybe two stop outs, then jump to higher time frame or something.



Still working on getting the initial stops tighter.

YM down 370
ES down 38
NQ down 186
CL down 2.04

Man what a day. Hope no one was long. LOL! And the bloodbath just continues.

how easy is bloodhound to use? Now that I'm starting to have more time on my hands I've thought about getting into some programming and seeing what I could cook up.

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
how easy is bloodhound to use? Now that I'm starting to have more time on my hands I've thought about getting into some programming and seeing what I could cook up.

-P

It's mostly graphical programming. Here is a screenshot of some of the modules. You simply select them and then adjust some parameters. You then connect them together to form your logic. For simple testing it is great. It can pull data from just about any indicator on your computer as long as the indicator is writing to a plot. It can do things like truth tables and if then statements but beyond that it would be better to code something manually.





Here is a screenshot of the parameters for an indicator comparison module. Fairly straightforward. Each module has the capability of analyzing for longs and shorts so you don't have to build modules for each scenario.




Here is a link to their online tutorial videos:

https://www.sharkindicators.com/documentation/bloodhound-getting-started/

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
It's mostly graphical programming. Here is a screenshot of some of the modules. You simply select them and then adjust some parameters. You then connect them together to form your logic. For simple testing it is great. It can pull data from just about any indicator on your computer as long as the indicator is writing to a plot. It can do things like truth tables and if then statements but beyond that it would be better to code something manually.





Here is a screenshot of the parameters for an indicator comparison module. Fairly straightforward. Each module has the capability of analyzing for longs and shorts so you don't have to build modules for each scenario.




Here is a link to their online tutorial videos:

https://www.sharkindicators.com/documentation/bloodhound-getting-started/

Thanks! I'll give it a look

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Early morning thoughts and meanderings:

News: Watch out for unemployment and NFP numbers out this morning 830 AM eastern time US. Monday is a bank holiday in the US (Columbus day). I don't think it will impact futures too much. Perhaps lighter volume.

Will there be another day of carnage? Looking at a longer term chart it almost seems like it will be and perhaps it has already started. I try not to form a bias when I trade, I try to just trade what I see. Another 200 point down day would be interesting.

1000 tick chart:





On the daily charts: We can see that there was a huge spike in volume yesterday. You have to go all the way back to March to see numbers like that and we know what happened back in March.... a major correction. Do I think it will get all the way back down to the 200ema again? A close below yesterdays low (7456.50) might paint a clearer picture. A drop to the 200 ema would be another 400 points. Unlikely to happen in a single day. We have already had two major corrections this year that brought price down to the 200 ema.... will there be a third? There have been a few that stopped at the 60 ema which is close to where we are now.

Daily chart:



I may just protect yesterdays profits and trade sim again today unless I see a very clear trend. Up or down it doesn't matter. Just hope it picks one and runs with it. If I trade sim it will give me some time to work on the signal code in BloodHound. I really want to get this to a purely mechanical trade. That opens up a number of possibilities with regards to automation. Having an automated entry that works across 3-4 futures would be the ultimate goal.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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TradingOgre View Post
...I try not to form a bias when I trade...

How do you do this if all your analysis is based on moving averages which are there to show you a bias or direction?

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
How do you do this if all your analysis is based on moving averages which are there to show you a bias or direction?

It would be more correct for me to say I don't have a bias that is built from higher time frame charts. So things like the daily chart don't determine how I trade intra day.

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