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Used my freebie reset a little while ago. Oh well. I was only on day 2 of my step 2. Threw up a couple of hail Mary's and the market slapped the dog crap out of me. LOL! I didn't hit the daily loss limit or max trailing drawdown but it was worse than the drawdown I had in step 1. After the crappy trading day today (which there is no reason it should have been that way other than me) it was just simpler to reset it and start over on step 2.
So, here is what I am going to do. I need 9k of profit over 10 trading days to be done at 10 days. Beginning tomorrow, I will only trade 1 contract and only increase it by 1 contract per 3k of profit. This means that from 150-153k balance I will trade 1 contract. From 153-156k will be 2 contracts and 156k until done will be 3 contracts.
My goal is to prove to myself and anyone else trying one of these evaluations or combines as TopStep calls it that just because you can use big leverage doesn't mean you should. And, that even with these tight restrictions on myself, reaching the 9k in profit will still be done within the 10 days of trading needed. Or really close to it.
Every day when they update the reports I will capture a screen shot and post it here. I think I can export my trade history as well so you can see that I am complying with the rules I have set for myself.
Top 3 reasons I had to do a reset today:
1. Using too much leverage. I am allowed 3 contracts at the minimum balance. I was using all 3 for my trading. You really do not need to in order to make it in 10 days.
2. Using too low of a time frame. My first trade this morning I was looking at the 89 tick chart and got scared out of the trade by a spike in price. Had I not been using 3 contracts, the spike would have been minimal and I would have let it ride. This would have allowed me to close the trade a little while later for a small profit. Scared money doesn't make money.
3. Revenge trading. I should have realized that I was pissed when I exited the first trade and a short time later it moved enough in my favor to be able to exit with a small profit. Should have stopped right there and waiting a few hours before taking another shot at it.
Here is what I am doing to fix this:
1. 1 lot per 3k of profit as outlined above.
2. I have deleted the 50 tick and the 89 tick charts from my charts. I even removed it from my menu of time frames.
3. Lowest acceptable time frame is the 200 tick chart although I am leaning more towards the 500 tick chart.
4. Realize when revenge trading is a possibility due to being pissed at myself. I knew when I made the next several trades (only 1 profitable) that I should have stopped but I didn't. Live and learn.
5. Posting full details every day right here for accountability.
Not really mad about having to do this. In reality I think it will be a good thing. It not only will prove that you don't need all the leverage they give you for trading but will show that a reasonable profit is achievable without high risk.
Stay tuned, this should be fun. Thanks for all of the support now lets go do this the right way.
It seems to me either I am out of sync or the market is just different right now or maybe a little of both. LOL! Lost 185 today in the combine. Not much and it is manageable but dang this market is tough on my system right now. There is still a bit of a belief issue when it comes to taking trades. Some of it because of the horrible day I had yesterday.
Spent most of the day looking at the 500 and 2000 tick charts. There was a decent entry long but early in the morning. I got caught in a long for my first trade that hung around for a bit which made me think it had a chance then it snatched hope right away from me and took out my stop. Should have moved my stop up when the trade first opened but I figured it was early in the day so give it some room to breathe. Instead of breathing it held its breath until it passed out and fell down. LOL! Second trade made up a little of that loss and I now sit at -185 for the day. Could have made it all back on that trade but well you know.... scared money doesn't make money.
I guess some times the system works really well and others not so much. Especially when I keep getting in my own way. Going to spend the weekend working hard on making improvements. Time to break out the blood hound and make him hunt. I really want to have at least the entries automated so I don't miss any or don't react fast enough to a quick moving market. Time to take a break, grab a shot of G-Fuel and work like a maniac until it wears off.
I may go back to trading early in the morning. Right now, at least, it seems that the early morning hours are producing the best results. Once the US markets open everything goes to crap lately. Still optimistic that I can figure this all out and complete step 2 of the combine sometime between 10 and 12 days.
Next Wednesday is interest rates so that should really be interesting. GDP numbers on Thursday as well.
Spent a good bit of time yesterday trying to create a reliable entry signal and I am close but not quite. I will continue on it today. If you are going to rely on something to trigger a trade, it needs to be right 100% of the time. Not winning trades 100% of the time, entering the trade the exact same way you would if you were trading it manually. Last week I thought I had found Nirvana when I put "anaADXMA" on the chart. Sometimes it reacted really well and gave a good tight entry, other times it was very late to the game.
This morning I am looking at an old favorite indicator which is built into NinjaTrader. KAMA or Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average. One thing I always liked about this indicator is that it "adapts" to changing market conditions. I actually used this moving average while trading spot Forex. I just started looking at it a few minutes ago and I am trying to build some entry/exit rules around it. When trying to get a computer to understand something you have to consider every possible scenario and tell it exactly how to respond. Things like: Do you exit immediately if it crosses back over the line and the trade is negative or do you only exit on previous swing low? Do you ignore signals that have a "large" candle and what defines a large candle? If you detect a choppy market do you hold onto the last trade and ride the chop or do you exit and wait for it to clear? Etc. Things that we can do intuitively with our brains, computers need to be given explicit instructions on how to respond to every situation.
The lime green line is the KAMA on this chart:
What all of that work did do for me is show me that the problem really isn't the market, it is me. Now I realize that hindsight is always 20/20 but seriously there were a ton of opportunities yesterday that I either didn't see or just flat out ignored. I am looking at it today going "What the Hell was I thinking?" Two things I realized this morning. 1. I still tend to hold onto losing trades way too long. I need to just set the stop a few ticks beyond the last swing and take the loss if it hits it. 2. Once I make a couple of trades for the day, good or bad, my mind starts thinking "Don't give up the profits." or "You really don't want to lose more do you?" depending on whether I am up or down on the day. That self-talk of doubting my trading is killing opportunities for me. I need to squash it now.
True. But the goal really isn't to make a system capable of trading during all market conditions it's more of a goal to make it "intelligent" enough to know how to react to those different types of days. No trade? Wait for something specific to occur first? Ride it out? The fun in programming is trying to give a computer enough information to make the best decision under as many different circumstances as possible.
There are unlimited variables. Unlimited. When I ran my business I factored slippage into the cost of every product. This was for theft,breakage, and unknowns. Basically as long as those figures didn't start an uprising and gain any momentum, I was content to just write it off. Obviously if the numbers showed too much deviation from norms i would start investigating. Perhaps you should set aside a certain percentage to 'wtf' scenarios that are not worth the effort or your time.
Try to cover too many bases and you get lost in the trees.
I think of it as more of a constantly evolving set of rules. Build the basics then add conditions based on observed situations but then evaluate those changes for the impact it has on that scenario and what, if any, negative impact it had on other trades. Filtering out one losing trade may make you feel better until you realize that it also filtered out 10 profitable trades.
If done correctly over time the software becomes more efficient at handling as many situations as possible. It takes time and constant effort. At a minimum an automated entry should only take the trades you would have taken without the software. If it takes trades due to a small variation that you normally filter out then you are better off trading manually. That's one of the things I like about BloodHound. Make a change and you can instantly see the difference on the chart. Great for prototyping and testing. Not sure I trust it for live trading.
To me it's worth the effort. Even if you never reach a point of full automation the focused effort in trying to do so will help to solidify your own personal trading rules.
Ok, decided to sim trade today to test a few things out on live data and I have to say I am happy with what I see and what I accomplished. Will try it live in the morning.
I have decided that I am going to target a specific tick profit each day and when I reach it, I am done (details below). I will go do something else. While there may be a ton of other opportunities throughout the day, in reality I don't need them to reach my personal goals or to reach the end of step 2 at TST.
On the 500 tick chart below you will see several blue circles. They are where I am looking for entries. The best scenario is 3 of the moving averages (21,60,200 ema's)lined up when the signal triggers. What I am looking at is 1 candle in the direction of the trend followed by one against the trend. Entry is a Buy or sell stop at the high or low of those two candles. Second best is taking the trend direction of the 60 and 200. Those tend to not run as long but are relatively low risk. As you can see from the chart the signals are very reliable.
There was a signal that came in about 6-7 am this morning (chart below) that would have allowed me to hit my profit target even before the markets opened. Works good when you aren't trading big numbers (> 10 contracts) otherwise you get a ton of slippage due to low volume. I plan on taking those trades until the personal account grows too big. The signals come slow enough on the 500 tick to allow for trading near the market open as well. I AM NOT AWARE OF ANY CHARTS LESS THAN 500 TICKS ON NINJATRADER! LOL!
Tentatively, the profit target will be set at 80 ticks. To help keep me in the trade, in order for it to qualify and allow me to quit for the day, it must occur in a single trade. I can have as many other trades as I can handle but in order for me to be able to finish for the day I must let it run. To help with that, I have set the ATM up to move the stop to BE +2 after 24 ticks of profit. Once it does that, I can only move it again based on swings in the price with a clear movement away from that swing. The initial stop will be 40 ticks but that is only initially. As soon as the trade opens I will move it to where it needs to be. Once there, it cannot be moved back. If it stops out, it stops out. Welcome to the real world. As an example, the last trade on the chart above would have qualified for my finished for the day trade based on where price is as I am writing this post. Entry would have been at 7550.50, stop would have been 7546.50 (16 ticks placed under last swing low) and peak price a few minutes ago was 7574.00 (only needed to get to 7570.50). An easy 80 ticks profit. If there was a stop out, and there would have been 1-2 today if I took all the trades, it doesn't count against me as far as reaching the 80 tick profit target. If I get stopped out first, I may consider moving the target out a little to compensate for it. If I do, the trade must reach the new target without me moving it back.
Since I am trading on the much slower 500 tick chart, I should be able to post my trades as they occur during the day. I will post trades from my personal account since I can capture those quickly with NT. TSTrader is a joke in my opinion... a bad joke. Executes orders just fine, the charting is weak. Should have asked for the ninjatrader account... live and learn I guess.
Note: On the first chart in the last post, the first trade shows my notes as would have been 2 ticks profit. That was when I was testing out 16 ticks to move to BE +2, under the new rules it would have been a stop out. Forgot to change my notes.
Between 10:59 and 11:04 you had a cluster of candles that were above your moving averages. The averages all lined up in that instance so why didnt you consider that a long signal?
Second trade made up a little of that loss and I now sit at -185 for the day. Could have made it all back on that trade but well you know.... scared money doesn't make money. 
I can have as many other trades as I can