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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View


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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View

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  #201 (permalink)
 Blue Eagle 
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MiniP View Post
I wouldn't call what I was "seeing" as catching knives I just had a very bullish bias for some reason all the entries we from really weak HL or ema breaks.. which is a valid signal but should of been skipped due to the massive down trend.

I never try to buy bottoms/springs even when there is a valid level. Cause I always fckkk it up ha

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Got it... no offence intended, just a thought... have a great weekend...
Craig

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  #202 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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One of the best lessons you can ever learn as a trader is knowing when you are not in the right frame of mind to take trades. Realizing that I have missed out on 100% of a 164+++++ point move with no valid reason is pathetic in my mind. That may sound like I am being harsh on myself but sometimes you just got to say it like it is. I spend a ton of time on the weekends and in the evenings backtesting and running the simulator. There is no valid reason why I shouldn't be taking 90% or more of these trades.

Even on the 1000 tick chart there were 4 very distinct clear trading opportunities.



I mean seriously, there are no other ways that are more clear than those in the picture above.

Sigh..... Enough whining.....

Ok, got it off my chest. I am off of my soapbox. Taking a few minute break then we will look for what happens after lunch.

What do I know, but unless you are going to be a hyper scalper it might be interesting to decide if you are a w/trend & pb to trend trader or fader.

I trade pullbacks on trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends using two timeframes - so I know a few times per month I will catch big moves for my trading sessions (9:30am to 12:30pm est).

I see SO many traders that try to trade trends/countertrends/chop/consolidation/range-trading MISS large trend days - they see it but they don't pull the trigger.

Today I shorted 9 times (initial dual entries) and additional add-ons until I hit my max 1.33% of entire index max point move (+95pts-100pts) on the NQ from my initial short entries.

Even last fall when volatility was low I consistently made monthly + profits on at least 1 day of the month in NQ.

I'm just another trader in the mix (trading NQ for decades) - but any method I formulate is completely 100% rule-based and logical and when the market is trending I am VERY aggressive (can have as many as 5 positions open in one direction, but never more than 2 units w/any risk - the rest are at worst b.e. or trailing profit stop) in confirmed trends.

I am VERY non-aggressive in range-bound 'rip/reverse' markets. Like this week - Monday-Thursday were rip and reverse/range-bound NQ markets mostly in the 1st 2 hours. I hit my daily stop loss goal on 2 of them. But that's part of the method. It happens.

This week is a perfect example. Monday up around +$850 per 1 contract. Tuesday full stop out day -$500.00 or so per contract. Wednesday up about +$2.9K per contract. Thursday full stop out day -$850 per contract. Today was nice w/+$6.22K per contract w/two intial shorts hitting my +1.33% max win of +100pts each from initial entries.

It seems you have a decent skillset for trading - I would 'tighten' up your approach though and really lean into getting your method selective and nearly mechanical.

If traders in the NQ are not clearing minimum 3K per month (much more since beginning of year) per contract - they need to work on their approach.

I'm very anal and it typically takes me about 5 months to finalize any intraday trading method I use - but I always trade trend pullbacks on initial trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends w/higher timeframe confirmation.

Frankly, you might be best suited to finding just a few 'techniques' you feel are good for entries and then really refine your trade management and profit-taking parameters. I feel like what I just wrote in the last sentence is probably the very most important part of being a long-term successful intraday trader.

Oh - and winning 22 trades in a row suggests to me you are scalping and thinking about the money WAY too much - your avg. profit net net per trade is VERY low in the NQ for the amount of risk you are probably willing to accept.

I could be entirely wrong - so don't take any of my advice without knowing what your trying to accomplish long term. If you are going to be that guy who scalps and makes a few shekels every day - be the best 'that' guy. I've seen it done before and it's a nice daily paycheck - but nothing significant. But these are just my opinions and are not necessarily meaningful to you and your trading style/situation.

I wouldn't go crazy taking ANY suggestions by posters in this thread - including mine.

Good luck!

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  #203 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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researcher247 View Post
What do I know, but unless you are going to be a hyper scalper it might be interesting to decide if you are a w/trend & pb to trend trader or fader.

I trade pullbacks on trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends using two timeframes - so I know a few times per month I will catch big moves for my trading sessions (9:30am to 12:30pm est).

I see SO many traders that try to trade trends/countertrends/chop/consolidation/range-trading MISS large trend days - they see it but they don't pull the trigger.

Today I shorted 9 times (initial dual entries) and additional add-ons until I hit my max 1.33% of entire index max point move (+95pts-100pts) on the NQ from my initial short entries.

Even last fall when volatility was low I consistently made monthly + profits on at least 1 day of the month in NQ.

I'm just another trader in the mix (trading NQ for decades) - but any method I formulate is completely 100% rule-based and logical and when the market is trending I am VERY aggressive (can have as many as 5 positions open in one direction, but never more than 2 units w/any risk - the rest are at worst b.e. or trailing profit stop) in confirmed trends.

I am VERY non-aggressive in range-bound 'rip/reverse' markets. Like this week - Monday-Thursday were rip and reverse/range-bound NQ markets mostly in the 1st 2 hours. I hit my daily stop loss goal on 2 of them. But that's part of the method. It happens.

This week is a perfect example. Monday up around +$850 per 1 contract. Tuesday full stop out day -$500.00 or so per contract. Wednesday up about +$2.9K per contract. Thursday full stop out day -$850 per contract. Today was nice w/+$6.22K per contract w/two intial shorts hitting my +1.33% max win of +100pts each from initial entries.

It seems you have a decent skillset for trading - I would 'tighten' up your approach though and really lean into getting your method selective and nearly mechanical.

If traders in the NQ are not clearing minimum 3K per month (much more since beginning of year) per contract - they need to work on their approach.

I'm very anal and it typically takes me about 5 months to finalize any intraday trading method I use - but I always trade trend pullbacks on initial trend breakouts and pullbacks to trends w/higher timeframe confirmation.

Frankly, you might be best suited to finding just a few 'techniques' you feel are good for entries and then really refine your trade management and profit-taking parameters. I feel like what I just wrote in the last sentence is probably the very most important part of being a long-term successful intraday trader.

Oh - and winning 22 trades in a row suggests to me you are scalping and thinking about the money WAY too much - your avg. profit net net per trade is VERY low in the NQ for the amount of risk you are probably willing to accept.

I could be entirely wrong - so don't take any of my advice without knowing what your trying to accomplish long term. If you are going to be that guy who scalps and makes a few shekels every day - be the best 'that' guy. I've seen it done before and it's a nice daily paycheck - but nothing significant. But these are just my opinions and are not necessarily meaningful to you and your trading style/situation.

I wouldn't go crazy taking ANY suggestions by posters in this thread - including mine.

Good luck!

I value all feedback and coaching. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

My background is primarily trading the daily charts in Forex. Look at the charts once a day, make adjustments and walk away. The whole day trading portion with something that moves as fast as Futures is a new concept for me. Sure, I could trade the 6E but where is the fun in trading something you are already comfortable with? If you include some demo time, my experience with Futures is only about 3-4 weeks. This journal is primarily documenting my journey, the different things I see (whether important or not) and what my next steps will be to get better.

My goal certainly is to hold onto trades longer than I have been and to improve on entries and exits. That comes with time and being comfortable with the way price moves especially when you compare it to Forex. It will get better. I am the type of person who will put in however many hours is needed to achieve a goal which is why I was able to retire from the daily job at 45 instead of 65 like most.

As far as the 22 consecutive profitable trades, I posted that just because I thought it was interesting that I was so hard on myself but the choices I had made over the last two weeks were at a minimum decent choices. Certainly not perfect as far as the entries and exits are concerned but at least decent.

I post what I put in this journal in hopes that sometime in the future it will serve as a good read for someone starting out in trading. It also helps me to see what I am missing or doing wrong which allows me to improve.

Within a few months time I expect to be making 10k+ per month. It will happen. It is inevitable.

This journal will serve as evidence of that journey.

Thanks again for taking the time to provide feedback.

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  #204 (permalink)
 teamtc247 
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TradingOgre View Post
So much opportunity.... so much hesitation..... ugh!!



Haha, I know what you mean, the best day of the week and I was reflecting reviewing and studying, ugh. There will be more trades and better days. I was so irritated when I opened up to see what happened at the close. Days like today can be devastating for traders, though.

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  #205 (permalink)
 researcher247 
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You wrote:

"I post what I put in this journal in hopes that sometime in the future it will serve as a good read for someone starting out in trading. It also helps me to see what I am missing or doing wrong which allows me to improve."
------------
Excellent, since you have been doing this for awhile but are new to the NQ - welcome! Above all else when you do your heavy lifting (grunt study work) continue to think in logical/probabilistic ways.

Challenge yourself to be more efficient in the long run. Efficiency doesn't mean the highest win% or trading 8 hours a day either (for the long haul).

The most challenging part of creating a sustainable long-term intraday trading method is the TIME it takes to refine it without adding too many 'filters.'

I still do work on the weekend (usually Sat.) going over my charts, annotating, keeping my journal in email form & running the numbers. I am never satisfied but do allow myself the satisfaction of knowing that good WORK (creating a method with a true 'edge') is the reward itself. And being my own boss.

Personally I wouldn't obsess too much about the minutiae in your online journal unless it really hammers home something important.

I think once a week w/statements or stats is plenty (if you feel the need to do so).

Try and take at least one day off a week too w/the intraday stuff - the brain needs time to evaluate all the nuances over time.

Good luck!

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  #206 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Sometimes a change of perspective is a good thing. Normally I keep my charts zoomed in so I can see each individual candle. For part of yesterday and again this morning I zoomed out far enough to be able to see an entire day on the 500 tick chart (thank goodness for wide screen monitors). When I did that, I lost sight of whether each candle is up or down. I could only see the general direction.




And, when you think about it, two of the most important things in trading are determining direction and when that direction could potentially change. How you determine the potential change in direction is left up to the individual trader. There are thousands of indicators out there all trying to either show the direction or show where the direction may turn. Finding what works for you is the true holy grail of trading.

I see a few changes I am going to implement next week. Things, that if I follow them, will help keep me in a profitable trade longer. The key is in actually following the changes.

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  #207 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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First trade complete:

Initial sell order:


Placed buy order above swing high by a few ticks since it was counter trend.


Price missed triggering by one tick. Thought it was going to turn but....


Order triggered.


Once price had moved 25 ticks in my favor I moved the stop to 3 ticks above entry.


Price came back down and took out the stop and ended up +15 on the trade. I am ok with my decision process on this first trade. Hindsight says I shouldn't have moved the stop but when price moves 25 ticks or more on early morning trading it is usually safe to move the stop where I did.

Where I messed up was in not rejoining the trend when I had the chance and now price is in a nice uptrend.


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  #208 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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2nd trade.

Entry was good and met all criteria for an early entry on the lower time frame. Higher time frames were still showing bearish. Added some notes as to what I was thinking as the trade progressed.

Only thing that concerned me about the entry was how close it was to the 200 ema.


Price swung a few times testing my patience but I held on and moved the stop to a previous swing. Screen cap was taken before I moved the stop to the swing high that occurred after entering the trade.


Tightened up the stop when price failed to break through the 200 ema



Stop taken out for a +10 trade.

If I would have left my stop back at the previous swing, price would have taken it out there for a loss. While I am not happy with the final result, it was the right decision based on what I was seeing in price movement.

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 TradingOgre 
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My entries.... sssssuuuuuuuuuuccccccckkkkkk today. This trade was just pure luck that it came back down into my favor. Got tired of waiting and put in a buy limit to close it out if it moved in my favor. Finally did. Trade closed. +50 on the trade +75 on the day.

I was so ticked at how I entered the trade I forgot to take screenshots. LOL!

Going to take a break and let things settle down a bit. Maybe find a new watch that can time my entries better.

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  #210 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Modification to the challenge rules beginning Tuesday 7-31-2018: 1. Achieve 10k per month BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY! No other rules required.

Today's results:





Not fantastic results but positive nonetheless.

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 TradingOgre 
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Yesterdays activity reports.




Slept in this morning. Hoping the markets aren't as quiet during the U.S. session as they were through the night. Just chopping right now.

Attached Thumbnails
Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View-7-30-2018activity.pdf  
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  #212 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Been away from the computer most of the day taking care of family matters (not the TV show either). Not an emergency just some things that needed to be taken care of before they escalated.

Not sure I will trade any this afternoon either. Not in the right frame of mind.

Someday I will build the ultimate automated strategy that can be trusted when no one is watching. I guess it is good to have dreams. LOL!



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 TradingOgre 
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Got tired of my bad timing entering trades. Had several the last few weeks that literally would only move about 1 tick in my favor and then bounce around near my stop for what seemed like forever before I would jump out with just a little profit. The risk to reward ratio was way, way out of whack. To fix that, I switched over to the sim account and traded it today. Spent several hours just working on timing and building trust in the system that I designed.

Now, don't get me wrong, I understand price will move around but when I look at the trade afterwards I would see a much better entry point that even if it moved around my entry price it was nowhere near as bad as where I entered the trade.

Took several pages of notes and the common theme was to trust the system.

Decided to enter a TST Combine. I will trade it side by side with my personal account. I will keep everyone updated in this journal as to my progress or lack of progress. LOL!

So, no live trades yesterday or today. Back to normal Thursday. Today was time well spent as there would have been a few trades that I would have had to sweat out before they finally turning my way. Trading sim today was a big confidence booster. Now, let's put all this into action.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Well, now that I have my lazy butt out of bed let's start trading. LOL! Not like I missed a good move............ oh


I did take a scalp trade a little while ago. Just to get the feet wet again. Ended up +25. Entry was decent exit was nearly perfect when using 20/20 hindsight. I exited because it appeared to be making a double bottom.

Waiting for a good set up. Price is ranging a bit right now. Should get really interesting when the markets open.

Haven't placed a trade on the TST combine account yet. Trading a long term chart with it and there haven't been any set ups yet.

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 ninjus 
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TradingOgre View Post
Well, now that I have my lazy butt out of bed let's start trading. LOL! Not like I missed a good move............ oh


Wish I'd stayed in bed... 12 hours ago. Today is going bad. LOL.

Hope you have a good one man.


Marcus Aurelius
"Not to assume it's impossible because you find it hard. But to recognize that if it's humanly possible, you can do it too"

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  #216 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Biggest weakness..... FOCUS!!

Have you ever stared at a chart for a long time then get distracted for what seems like just a minute and when you look back at the chart you say to yourself "How the HELL did I miss that trade?" Seems like the story of my trading lately. Need to focus on focusing.

I have been trying to trade longer time frame charts so I can get into the habit of staying in trades for a long time. Hasn't worked so far due mainly to focus.

Missed out on this run up that started around 2 hours ago. Oh well, you get out of trading what you put into trading.

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 researcher247 
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I rarely comment in other trader's 'trading journals' 'cause most of them flame out or are just completely doomed from the start due to a myriad of factors (underfunded/poor profit factor/inverted r:r/poor trade management/bad psychology/and a million other issues)...

But, I wanted to write some things to you - these are only my opinions but I mean no harm.

It's a process (stalking the NQ on a slow day). Today took ULTIMATE patience for the NQ to start catching up to the ES.

Even so, it's a slow day and volatillity was exceptionally low the 1st 90 minutes of the U.S. day session.

Perhaps even though you are now struggling with the transition from fast charts to slower timeframes so you can take more meaningful better R:R setups - if you are determined and stick with it and build solid logical rules around entries and trade management & trade targets you might have a long-term chance w/the NQ.

I bet you are just dying that last week you missed out on those trend days - I understand. Until you have probably 6 full months in front of the NQ for about 3 hours per day (I prefer the day session open 9:30am est to 12:30pm est) and can trade your plan almost unconsciously - well, this is what separates long-term traders from tiny scalpers.

It's a journey - I wish you luck as it seems you have the determination. Now you just need time and to really work at fine-tuning everything w/alot of NQ screen time.

Through volatility, non-directional days, hard up & down trend days right off the open, wide-ranging but non-directional days to days w/initial trends w/deep pullbacks and then trend resumption in an orderly fashion, rip the globex high/lows early in the session w/no follow through up/down/up/down days etc...

Many traders have a daily stop loss and/or max amount of trades they are willing to take and if not profitable they simply walk away for the rest of the day. Some don't.

I'm very interested in this thread and not in a 'hoping you fail' way but in a 'will he stay in the game long enough' to really hammer out a solid long-term plan kind of way and then watching you grow into the execution of such a plan.

What really separates professional traders who make exceptional money intraday is the ability to PRESS when in winners (adding on and adding on and getting bigger and bigger until their directional bias ends and/or changes) and simply being able to execute with no hesitation regardless if the 'bet' is $120 for a 1 contract trade or $4 to $5K on 20-30 lot initial entries.

Personally, I really don't think your trading statements nor trading $$$ goals should be written out in this journal (it is NOT to your advantage to do so - trust me) nor do you have to post intra-session.

Some decent screenshots from time to time and your ability to effectively articulate in this journal what you are learning and how you are processing those changes (after all, the journal you are writing is your own and for yourself, primarily) is most likely what is most important.

I keep a daily journal and ONLY in email form and the only person that reads it is myself and my financial trading partner.

I don't know what your $$ situation is but it is always better when beginning a NEW trading instrument (NQ in your case) to not have to live on your trading account. I don't think you are doing that and if I read correctly you have traded other trading instruments for quite some time.

It's always better if you have another income stream and your trading time in front of your new trading instrument is completely and utterly not interrupted with anything related to regular life/schedule/phone/etc...

Keep working on this and remember the NQ is not terribly easy to trade but it MOVES (in terms of 'ticks' & trades through levels and is not too deep in the DOM so you don't have to wait a long time to get fills) lots - which can make up for alot of initial errors in the beginning as you refine your trading.

Good luck and good trading.

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  #218 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Some observations from today:

1. Save the smaller time frames for the younger people with Ferrari brains. I am more like a '66 Mustang with a straight six. Not as fast but still looks great on the outside. LOL!
2. Good entries on my trades today. Funny how higher time frames will still give you reasonable stops.
3. As suggested, no more account statements being posted. I may consider it when I hit my target in a few months. But nothing until then. Time to focus on the trades and not the money. Get the trades right and the money will come. I think that I may post ticks instead. At least that will give indication of how I am doing.
4. Did well on my TST combine today. Making up for some losses from last Thursday. Nothing big. I stopped last Thursday when I hit 25% of my daily loss limit. Really drove home the point about not fighting a strong trend. I let FOMO drive my decision making process last Thursday. Wrong way to trade. I wanted to get in early when the trend reversed..... it never reversed... LOL! Thank goodness I didn't trade my account that way.
5. Reduced my screen time starting today, also as suggested. Really helped with the focus part. I was able to clearly see the entries and act on them. Checked the charts once every hour beginning at 6 am. Screen time from 830 until about 1 pm. Back to checking every hour after lunch. If I am actively managing a trade I will extend the screen time as needed.
6. If you have a good trading plan and stick to it, winning and losing trades are just part of the game. You will never be able to predict the outcome of a trade 100% of the time. Deal with it. I am happy to say I stuck with the game plan 100% today and the results show it.

I really cannot say enough about how much I appreciate constructive and meaningful feedback. I am not the type to ignore it or take it lightly. Again, thanks.

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 researcher247 
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That's good. When you really keep a well-thought out journal every month or six weeks or so you will have another breakthrough - be it in efficiency, logical 'filters' for consistent price action you have observed and a genuine moment or two of clear clarity that not only simplifies your trading but it also makes it more profitable.

For me I never know when it will happen, I do know that if I stick with it and keep open to the possibility and continue doing the real grunt work that my brain eventually works it out.

Whether it is unconcisous or conscious. I'm always amazed even after a year of trading a particular trading method (I usually slightly change my method particulars every 18-24 months - but it's always w/trend & trend breakout pullbacks and pullbacks to trend) pretty much 99% the same way each day - something pops up and because I keep my annotated charts completely marked up and saved on thumbdrives I can then go back to random weeks of data and see a new EDGE or tweak that then consistently helps my trading.

Good work today. Unlike yourself I had a short day of 80 minutes and hit my daily stop loss in # of trades - but relatively small losses for my method of about 17pts per contract. An early day is a day for me to forget about trading the rest of the day and do things completely unrelated to trading for at least 3-4 hours.

peace...

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 TradingOgre 
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Interesting note on the TST combine. When they refer to trade a minimum of 5 days (for step 1) they aren't talking about trade two days and then no trades for 3 days to get to five. You have to complete at least one trade on 5 different days. Not a problem but I thought people might want to know. I guess their idea of trade 5 days and my idea of trade 5 days didn't match. LOL!

Not like I am going to hit their profit target by the end of the week anyway.

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 bobwest 
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Interesting note on the TST combine. When they refer to trade a minimum of 5 days (for step 1) they aren't talking about trade two days and then no trades for 3 days to get to five. You have to complete at least one trade on 5 different days. Not a problem but I thought people might want to know. I guess their idea of trade 5 days and my idea of trade 5 days didn't match. LOL!

Yeah... gotta trade all those days.

I would just caution you to be sure you are clear about all the other rules, too.

One that confuses a lot of people is the trailing max drawdown. It starts out, for the 50K I am in, as a flat max loss of $2,000, so the plug will be pulled if you lose down to 48K. But as you make profits, it trails up like a trailing stop on your account balance, which means you can suddenly find yourself knocked out when you think you have a lot of room to fall. (It stops trailing when the cutoff level gets up to the original starting balance.)

So everyone should be sure they've read all the Help topics, and possibly twice: https://help.futures.topstep.com/hc/en-us/categories/203775488-Trading-Combine-

Hope it's going well for you.

Bob.

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 TradingOgre 
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Today is probably the first day I have felt good about not taking trades. I had committed to not taking any counter trend trades but most of the good set ups today have been counter trend. Go figure. I was good and didn't take any of them. Otherwise, there just weren't any good set ups that met all of my criteria for entering a trade. A couple of them would have made money but I didn't take them because they weren't ideal. A couple of them would have lost money as well.

Sometimes not trading is a win.

I have been working on a way to take certain counter trend trades but so far the risk is still greater than the reward.

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 TradingOgre 
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bobwest View Post
Yeah... gotta trade all those days.

I would just caution you to be sure you are clear about all the other rules, too.

One that confuses a lot of people is the trailing max drawdown. It starts out, for the 50K I am in, as a flat max loss of $2,000, so the plug will be pulled if you lose down to 48K. But as you make profits, it trails up like a trailing stop on your account balance, which means you can suddenly find yourself knocked out when you think you have a lot of room to fall. (It stops trailing when the cutoff level gets up to the original starting balance.)

So everyone should be sure they've read all the Help topics, and possibly twice: https://help.futures.topstep.com/hc/en-us/categories/203775488-Trading-Combine-

Hope it's going well for you.

Bob.

I actually understood the trailing drawdown part. LOL!

I was reading over One Up Trading's rules and they even have a calculation for consistency as a part of their evaluation. They take 80% of your biggest winning day then they add up the 2nd 3rd and 4th biggest winning days and they have to total at least 80% of your biggest day.

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 TradingOgre 
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Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines? I have never actually traded with them but I see some interesting opportunities on NQ for trading trend line breaks.




I am done trading for the day so I am trying to find a way to reliably enter counter trend or to have confirmation of going with the trend.

Thanks for the input.

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 pfsthib 
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Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines? I have never actually traded with them but I see some interesting opportunities on NQ for trading trend line breaks.




I am done trading for the day so I am trying to find a way to reliably enter counter trend or to have confirmation of going with the trend.

Thanks for the input.

I use trend breaks at areas of support and resistance, pivots, etc.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines?

You certainly can create a strategy around them. However, TL's placement is a bit subjective. Here are a few examples from today:





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 bobwest 
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Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines? I have never actually traded with them but I see some interesting opportunities on NQ for trading trend line breaks.

I am done trading for the day so I am trying to find a way to reliably enter counter trend or to have confirmation of going with the trend.

Thanks for the input.

In some ways they are like MA's: they show the trend, and when the trend actually changes they will be broken. But like MA's, they can easily also have false breaks that don't lead to anything. In other words, every true trend reversal will break a trendline, and an MA too -- but you can have trendline/MA breaks that are not real trend reversals.

Sometimes when I draw them, they actually keep pace with MA's. I think of them (MA's and trendlines) as being very similar. But one problem is always which points to use for trendlines, whereas MA's just are put there automatically. Trendlines are also much easier to see after the fact, which is not too useful.

I end up with enough stuff on a chart anyway, so I tend to not use trendlines and channels much, but I think they can be a help. They do increase the amount of judgment you have to make, because there's the judgment of which points to use for them as well as the judgment of what to do when they break.

So this is not a rave review, but I think if you use MA's you can also use trendlines, with the same pluses and minuses, basically.

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
You certainly can create a strategy around them. However, TL's placement is a bit subjective.

Agree on the subjectivity. It's kind of an art.

Bob.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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bobwest View Post
Agree on the subjectivity. It's kind of an art.

Bob.

It depends, see this video. This is probably one of the most advance TL EA i have seen. You can even test TL on historical datas and scroll the chart and the lines will be drawn automatically. This allows you to test prior sequences. With such a tool all subjectivity is gone. A line breaks or not. What is subjective is your decision to take a trade or not. Also, if a trendline breaks but fails you can just reverse on a break of the prior swing high/low that lead to the false breakout. That is how i would go with TL's.

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 TradingOgre 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
It depends, see this video. This is probably one of the most advance TL EA i have seen. You can even test TL on historical datas and scroll the chart and the lines will be drawn automatically. This allows you to test prior sequences. With such a tool all subjectivity is gone. A line breaks or not. What is subjective is your decision to take a trade or not. Also, if a trendline breaks but fails you can just reverse on a break of the prior swing high/low that lead to the false breakout. That is how i would go with TL's.

Interesting product. Wish they offered it for NT8 and not MT4.

Thanks

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 cory 
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Interesting product. Wish they offered it for NT8 and not MT4.

Thanks

there are some for NT8
1) https://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/local_links.php?action=sendtofriend&catid=7&linkid=779

2)

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: cs JAMautoTL.cs (12.4 KB, 7 views)
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 teamtc247 
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Open question for anyone who wants to chime in:

What are your thoughts on good old fashioned trend lines? I have never actually traded with them but I see some interesting opportunities on NQ for trading trend line breaks.




I am done trading for the day so I am trying to find a way to reliably enter counter trend or to have confirmation of going with the trend.

Thanks for the input.

I would just treat them as more of a technical indicator for tl break entries and last resort tl break for exits. I would not look at trendlines by themselves or any technical tool in isolation. I mean you can, they work, but you can also see where they don't work. I guess you can treat them as a pro for a trade with a strategy if there are channel lines. I wouldn't put too much weight on them. Check out a chart and count waves with measured moves. It's easy to get caught up on channel lines and trendlines and miss the other important stuff.

Process oriented goals #1.
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 TradingOgre 
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Volume has really dropped off the last 4 days. Looking back to August of last year we were running at about the same 10 day average we have now at 339,000. Last 4 days we have been around 250,000. Last year we were reaching the 10 day average volume on a regular basis. Is NQ looking for a rest from the long uphill climb? We shall see. Maybe the air is too thin and it will pass out and roll back down. LOL!



Thanks for all of the suggestions and info on using trend lines.

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 teamtc247 
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I would just treat them as more of a technical indicator for tl break entries and last resort tl break for exits. I would not look at trendlines by themselves or any technical tool in isolation. I mean you can, they work, but you can also see where they don't work. I guess you can treat them as a pro for a trade with a strategy if there are channel lines. I wouldn't put too much weight on them. Check out a chart and count waves with measured moves. It's easy to get caught up on channel lines and trendlines and miss the other important stuff.

One other thing. Also, they are just a zone of support and resistance. Watch for tests of threes. The more it is tested, the more the validity, but after 3 or more it's likely to break too. I wouldn't approach trading specifically trying to trade trendlines, or channels for that matter, I have tried it. It's good to have knowledge of them though as a support and resistance level.

I think counting waves or lows is more important, with momentum, and the waves within waves. For a price action trader, that is more critical, in my opinion. When I am talking about counting, I'm not speaking of elliot.

Are you more interested in reversals or continuations?

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Process oriented goals #1.
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 TradingOgre 
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One other thing. Also, they are just a zone of support and resistance. Watch for tests of threes. The more it is tested, the more the validity, but after 3 or more it's likely to break too. I wouldn't approach trading specifically trying to trade trendlines, or channels for that matter, I have tried it. It's good to have knowledge of them though as a support and resistance level.

I think counting waves or lows is more important, with momentum, and the waves within waves. For a price action trader, that is more critical, in my opinion. When I am talking about counting, I'm not speaking of elliot.

Are you more interested in reversals or continuations?

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reversals mostly. Continuations I can do just fine with the moving averages.

Thanks

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 teamtc247 
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reversals mostly. Continuations I can do just fine with the moving averages.

Thanks

What do you mostly struggle with on reversals?

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Process oriented goals #1.
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 TradingOgre 
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What do you mostly struggle with on reversals?

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Since I mostly use moving averages it takes a good bit of time before I can identify a change in direction. And sometimes by the time the moving averages react, a large chunk of the trend has already passed. Would be nice to pick those reversals earlier either by pure price action, candlestick patterns or a combination of things. Not looking to pick the exact top or bottom. That's why I was looking at trendlines. I haven't ran the numbers but at least in hindsight they appear to pick those reversals at a good place. What I haven't spent much time on is trying to apply trend lines in the heat of the moment so to speak.

Looking at this chart from earlier today:



This could be a double top or just a bounce off of the overnight high. Add a trend line like this:



And in this case it picks the end of the trend quite well:



I guess the "art" behind trend lines is in figuring out how much of a swing is significant enough to provide value in finding the line.

I haven't done any studying on waves or other methods. I have always just relied on the moving averages.

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 tturner86 
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Your post made me go do some research.

Here is a list of the Nasdaq100 and their weighting:

https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/nasdaq-100-stocks.aspx

You were right about Facebook being about 6%.

I need to create a watchlist of all of the stocks just to keep an eye on news events related to the NQ.

When I traded NQ I did this. It worked well.

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 teamtc247 
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Since I mostly use moving averages it takes a good bit of time before I can identify a change in direction. And sometimes by the time the moving averages react, a large chunk of the trend has already passed. Would be nice to pick those reversals earlier either by pure price action, candlestick patterns or a combination of things. Not looking to pick the exact top or bottom. That's why I was looking at trendlines. I haven't ran the numbers but at least in hindsight they appear to pick those reversals at a good place. What I haven't spent much time on is trying to apply trend lines in the heat of the moment so to speak.

Looking at this chart from earlier today:



This could be a double top or just a bounce off of the overnight high. Add a trend line like this:



And in this case it picks the end of the trend quite well:



I guess the "art" behind trend lines is in figuring out how much of a swing is significant enough to provide value in finding the line.

I haven't done any studying on waves or other methods. I have always just relied on the moving averages.


I think that's where multiple chart analysis comes into play. Are you only trading off one chart, the 500 tick?

For instance, how I trade is off the 200/500 tick looking to time on the 50 or 200 tick depending if the setup is on the 200 or 500 tick. 50 tick is just a entry/trade management, I also use the 200 for trade management. All time/tick/volume etc have the same setups, how I trade. Sometimes you are unable to see the measured moves or momo slowing if you are just looking at one chart. You can trade only the one chart, but your stop will be wider and you won't see any waves.

So essentially, find a setup on the lower tf and trade with your overall bias.

So in this case, there were two clear waves of selling to the bottom of the trading range before the sharp impulse move up, right? Was momentum stronger than average or about average, to me it looks about average compared to the 2 wave down, so if you missed that smaller strategy on the 200 tick, you would have been waiting for a measured move of that first impulse off the low(or trading strategy's between the trading range). Since the impulse on the second leg was stronger it was able to push up to the 138.2 level, it could have stopped, but it didn't put in that measured move yet too. The reversal down on the 500 tick was like a hs pattern.

So the important part here is not to sell or buy sharp momentum if you are trying to reverse, you want to wait for shifts like this.








50 Tick chart



200 Tick Chart



500 Tick Chart



Check out the correction, in the middle they are similar.

To get the big moves are great, but to get the 5-10 points is great too. Seems NQ most often has nice 5 point swings and it seems to be picking back up again, so think things are about to get good when the kiddo's are back in school.

Take a look and focus on two waves, and see what happens. Some times there are three waves, but mostly 2. On big trend days, watch out, that's where people get messed up,but to avoid look at higher time frame. Some folks might get 6k a contract, but what typically happens, range days.

See if you can find these patterns or variations.



Process oriented goals #1.
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 TradingOgre 
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Ahh what a day! LOL! Literally the same time my sell stop triggers both my monitors go black. Turns out my water pump on the liquid cooling loop crapped out and started leaking on the graphics card. Thank goodness I have a laptop. By the time I had it up and running and configured both my account and the TST Combine account were green. And that was after price had moved against me for a while. Maybe that is the secret for me. Start a trade and then turn off the monitors for a while.


TST Combine back into the green and day 3 completed. Personal account looking good as well.

Note to self, never buy a case where the water cooling pump is made into the heat sink on the cpu. Looks like a seal failed. It lasted about 2 years of nearly running continuously so can't complain there.

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 TradingOgre 
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Took all of the water cooling loop out of the case, modified the 3 fans on the radiator to mount without the radiator, cleaned the video card. Not sure if the video card will survive we will find out over the weekend. Switching over to all fan cooled. I don't push a cpu hard enough to justify water cooling. I just had it because it came with the case.

Still need to clean the cpu before the new heat sink arrives tomorrow. Should be able to fire it back up late Friday or early Saturday.

I am confident the mother board is ok just not so sure about the graphic card. If it doesn't come up I will just run on the built in graphics on the mother board until I get a new video card.

Still planning on trading from the laptop tomorrow.



This is what it looked like with the water cooling:



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 researcher247 
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Volume has really dropped off the last 4 days. Looking back to August of last year we were running at about the same 10 day average we have now at 339,000. Last 4 days we have been around 250,000. Last year we were reaching the 10 day average volume on a regular basis. Is NQ looking for a rest from the long uphill climb? We shall see. Maybe the air is too thin and it will pass out and roll back down. LOL!



Thanks for all of the suggestions and info on using trend lines.

Market rotation near all-time highs. After last week's 'action' - culminating with NFP on Friday, this week is very quiet w/small ranges and some breakouts that fade (1st 3 hours of day session trading price action).

It happens, we can't predict volume nor directionality nor 'range' each day and/or week.

My humble opinion - it is what it is this week and apparently it's 'quiet' on the volume front, for sure.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Good day of trading and calling it quits for the week. Hoping my computer parts get here soon so I can get my main computer back running again. Laptop is ok. I have it connected to one of my monitors so at least I am not stuck on a 17 inch display. Rough when you are used to looking at two 34 inch displays.

When I first checked the charts this morning, the drop on 6E caught my eye so I looked closer. On the 5 minute chart I found an old familiar pattern that is very reliable on the EUR. Couldn't resist so I jumped on it and rode it down for a really good gain.



A few other trades on NQ as the morning progressed. Overall a great day in spite of my limited screen space.

I see some things on NQ that warrant a deeper look this weekend once my main computer is back whole again.

Day 4 of combine complete. If I continue at my current rate I estimate hitting the phase 1 profit target at around day 8. The markets and my trading will have the final say in that however.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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IT'S ALIVE!!!! The only non-surviving part is the water pump. I think I may have ordered more heat sink than I needed. ROFL!!



What can I say.... it was on sale. LOL!

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Interesting price movement through the night. Good volume as well. About 50 points worth of range. Let's see what happens when the US market opens.

Looking forward to a great week. Hope everyone has a great week as well.

Friday's movement was accompanied by a spike in volume. The daily chart appears to have formed a double top. We shall see if it continues down or moves back up to test or break through the highs.




Goals for the week: Continue growing the account(s) in the right direction. Focus on good entries. Trade based on what is on the charts and not by fear or greed. Would be nice to finish the first stage of the TST combine this week but that is up to me and what the markets are willing to give.

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deathforcee
Veliko Tarnovo , Bulgaria
 
 
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Hey Ogre, I am new in trading and you're helping me a lot with your journal. I wonder if you use Level 2 when you trade futures? And can u give me some advice or guidelines about what to learn, because I don't have 3k or more for "academy" or courses

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 TradingOgre 
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Hey Ogre, I am new in trading and you're helping me a lot with your journal. I wonder if you use Level 2 when you trade futures? And can u give me some advice or guidelines about what to learn, because I don't have 3k or more for "academy" or courses

I have a level two up and running and watch it out of curiosity but do not use it in my decision process.

To start with, focus on one instrument (ES, or NQ or whatever). Study how it moves and what different things can impact it(NASDAQ stock price movements for NQ as an example). Trade your demo account EXACTLY like you would trade a live account. It is far too easy to just let something move against you further than you would live because you can easily just reset the demo account. Can't do that with a live account (unfortunately, ).

Start small and don't get in a hurry. You can make some really good money trading one contract. Over leveraging creates fear of loss and scared money doesn't make money. Until you are reasonably consistent in demo, there is no reason to go live.

Keep the indicators to a minimum. Don't worry about the fancier more advanced stuff until you can understand the basics. I have seen people day trade with just 2 moving averages and do quite well.

The number one thing that will have the greatest impact on learning is simply time in front of the screen. Second is keeping detailed records of your trades (a journal).

Although it is geared towards Forex, https://babypips.com/ has a free and really good training section on technical analysis. It applies just as well to the futures market as it does to Forex. They cover everything from the basics to some very advanced technical analysis.

If you are new to trading, give it lots of time. There is a huge learning curve but with patience and consistency you can learn and grow as a trader. This forum is a great resource filled with people who are willing to help. Just look at some of the feedback in my journal. Nothing negative, just good ideas from people who want to see you succeed.

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 TradingOgre 
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I have been slacking off on my journal. It's been a bit busy around here so trading has been minimal. Should be back at it full speed today.

Still making slow progress on my TST combine account. There is still a reasonable possibility that I can hit the profit target by the end of the week. Not rushing it. Sticking to my trading plan and when I get there, I get there. Haven't made a trade in my personal account this week due to distractions.

Been studying CL a little. Just out of curiosity not actually trading it yet. Right now I have NQ,CL and 6E on my charts. 6E has been making some nice moves lately. CL made a really nice move overnight. Since I stopped getting up very early, I have seem more good moves during the time I used to trade. LOL! Plenty of other opportunities and I can get all the sleep this aging body needs.

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 TradingOgre 
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Man! Smells like a bull slaughterhouse today. Getting better at not fighting the trend. Grabbed some points on the way down on NQ.

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 TradingOgre 
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Some observations on CL from today. I still need to go back and see if what I saw today holds true in most markets. These are just what I see from today.

Putting this in the journal just as observations. I did NOT take any CL trades today. Hindsight says I really should have, lol!! Screen caps are from the 500 tick chart. Quick glance back it seems like CL works well with my trading system.




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 TradingOgre 
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Couple of trade examples from today. Overall an outstanding trading day taking in over 275 total ticks profit. This puts me about 90% of the way to completing the first stage of the TST trading combine. I expect tomorrow to be choppy after a big move day like today but we won't know that for sure until tomorrow.

This isn't all of the trades just two from the NQ on the 500 tick chart. These were the best examples of how I should be trading. Fortunately today it was how I actually traded.


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 TradingOgre 
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Simple goals for today:

1. Trade like you did yesterday. No counter trend, no stupidity.
2. Focus on one instrument. NQ for the win.
3. Close in or finish stage 1 of TST Combine.
4. HAVE FUN! It's only as difficult as you let your mind make it.

Hope everyone's account shows green today!

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 TradingOgre 
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Strong volume yesterday 500k+ Haven't seen that much since 7/27 when it dropped last time. Although the overnight doesn't show it, we may have more downward movement in store. We will see in a little while when the markets open in the U.S. The direction doesn't really matter to me, knowing the direction is important.


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 TradingOgre 
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Somebody get a defibrillator NQ has flatlined. LOL!

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 TradingOgre 
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No trades today. One thing about looking at higher time frames is that you may not see a set up for that day. I am ok with that. No need to force a trade.

At first I thought it was just a fear of losing out on the gains from yesterday. I just went back over the movement today and it definitely was a no trade day. There was one higher risk trade that would have yielded some profits but I probably wouldn't have taken it even if I had a normal day yesterday. I have seen it fail too many times. Sometimes no trade is a winning trade.

Now for some prep work for Friday. I saw a pattern recently that may help get into a trade early (in the direction of the trend of course). Not sure if it is reliable yet. Should only take a few minutes to modify some code to help see how often it occurs and what the results would have been.

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 TradingOgre 
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New pattern I found yesterday looks promising enough to put it into a strategy to allow for automated entries. That will be the weekend project. Shouldn't take long since I already have the core of the code written, just have to modify it for the new pattern. It would be nice to have when the markets are really moving since it can react faster than I can.

Volume is light again. Hopefully US session will liven things up a bit.

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 TradingOgre 
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Another great day in the bag. Time to quit while I am ahead. Changed all the way up to the 2000 tick chart and MAN what a difference it makes. Things happen slower but moves are even more predictable. Here is a trade from earlier today. Should have taken the long after it but I was pretty much done for the day. Total of +96 ticks.


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 futrstrdr 
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I've been using a 2048 tick chart for CL,GC, and NQ. Use 4096 tick chart for the ES. Works very well, at least for me

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 futrstrdr 
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I use tick charts.
Here is a screen shot

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 TradingOgre 
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Decent day of trading. Slow start at first, not with price movement with me. LOL! I felt like I was stuck in a brain fog for the first few hours in front of the screen.

I only traded my account today. Wanted to focus on one thing and one thing only. I was green on the day by about 48 ticks. Missed several good opportunities due to brain fog. Once it cleared out trading went smoothly.

I will get back into the combine in the morning. I know at this point I will be going into a second month so I will have to pay the fee one more time. I am ok with that. If I would have traded the combine more I would be much further along. Didn't want to stress myself and set a lofty target of completing it within 15 trading days. Slow steady pace is best.

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 TradingOgre 
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Good morning everyone. Quick scan of NQ,CL and 6E shows no real opportunity yet. CL may be setting up to go long. Still too early to tell or to place a pending order.

NQ has been in a nice up trend since about 9 pm last night. Slow steady move up. No real signs of reversing or giving a good place to join the trend. 2000 tick chart



CL seems to be wandering. No real direction. Maybe US session will point it in one direction or another. 2000 tick chart



6E saw a huge spike after Trump decided to voice his opinion about the US interest rates. No real direction after that. Very early morning trading could have yielded a decent long but that seems to be dwindling down as well. 5 minute chart.


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 IBLAB 
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Good morning everyone. Quick scan of NQ,CL and 6E shows no real opportunity yet. CL may be setting up to go long. Still too early to tell or to place a pending order.

NQ has been in a nice up trend since about 9 pm last night. Slow steady move up. No real signs of reversing or giving a good place to join the trend. 2000 tick chart



CL seems to be wandering. No real direction. Maybe US session will point it in one direction or another. 2000 tick chart



6E saw a huge spike after Trump decided to voice his opinion about the US interest rates. No real direction after that. Very early morning trading could have yielded a decent long but that seems to be dwindling down as well. 5 minute chart.


Thanks much very well done TYVVM

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 TradingOgre 
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Markets were a bit sluggish so I dropped down from 2000 tick to 500 tick and found a nice counter trend trade after the markets settled down from the open. Should have watched it closer as I could have gotten a much better entry. Felt some pain for about 30 minutes while price decided whether or not it agreed with my choice to go short. Worked out well.




Still looking for some additional trade opportunities but happy with my trading so far today. Getting close with step one of the combine. Still a little work to do and not rushing it is the key to hitting the target.

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 IBLAB 
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Markets were a bit sluggish so I dropped down from 2000 tick to 500 tick and found a nice counter trend trade after the markets settled down from the open. Should have watched it closer as I could have gotten a much better entry. Felt some pain for about 30 minutes while price decided whether or not it agreed with my choice to go short. Worked out well.




Still looking for some additional trade opportunities but happy with my trading so far today. Getting close with step one of the combine. Still a little work to do and not rushing it is the key to hitting the target.

AWESOME fabulous catch congrats !! IB

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 IBLAB 
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AWESOME fabulous catch congrats !! IB

SUPERB !!!!!!!!!!!

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 IBLAB 
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I have been trading Forex actively for about 11 years and full time about 5 of those years. As the account grew, I slowly switched to higher and higher time frames and now only look at Forex charts once a day. Time for something new. I have known about futures for several years and up until now just haven't done anything with it. Last week I opened an account and after the 4th of July holidays I will begin trading it live. I have been demo trading for a few weeks and find many similarities between Forex and Futures along with many differences. The system that I have used for so many years trading Forex works even better in the Futures market (at least so far ). Looking forward to seeing what I can do.

I could go back to day trading Forex but where's the fun in that? Time to experience something new.

I trade at all hours of the day but I am not necessarily in front of the computer all day. Not having a day job has its advantages.

Going to be starting mainly with NQ adding others in as my experience grows. I like the volatility of the NQ.

I will try to grab screenshots as I go but with the NQ things happen quickly so I am not sure how well I will do with posting during the day. I will post results at the end of the day at a minimum.


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 IBLAB 
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sUPERB

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 IBLAB 
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Didn't trade any more today. Got distracted making a modification to the candlestick pattern indicator in NT8. I have uploaded it to the indicator section. It allows you to select (by checkbox) which candlestick patterns you want to see. You can also just select find_all and it will find all of them. The original one only allowed you to pick one pattern from a drop down menu.




It's much easier than having to load multiple copies of the indicator to get it to show more than one candlestick pattern.

Ended up +270 for today which makes day 3 in a row for being profitable. Very happy with that. Not happy with my chicken sh** style of trading. That's also why I stopped trading. Could have easily been +1500 today. I started looking for good ways to find the end of a trend or find indication that it may continue. That's why I started looking into the candlestick patterns. I was looking for some sort of confirmation that the trend may continue. Candlestick patterns may be something to help. Not sure yet. I got frustrated with the version that came with NT 8 that only allowed one pattern to be chosen.

are we allowed to chat privately sir if u will of Futures.io IB ????

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Checking the charts to see what happened during the overnight session.

NQ, quiet. No real direction. Hope US session gets it moving. Edit: Well now that I am posting this, NQ decides to make a move. LOL!



CL, really smooth trend to the upside. Good entry would have been around 230 or so this morning. And, if managed properly would still be in it. Still just monitoring CL. Curious but not brave enough yet. LOL!




6E, a bit choppy but a strong move up just a little while ago. Would have been an easy catch with the swing high happening just under the 200 ema (yellow line). Trade would have also been in the direction of the intermediate trend (60 ema above 200 ema).




Time to get ready for the US session in a few hours. Now, where did I put that crystal ball??

Trade plan: Trade 6E, and NQ until near the open of US session. Then focus just on NQ for the rest of the day.

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 IBLAB 
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Checking the charts to see what happened during the overnight session.

NQ, quiet. No real direction. Hope US session gets it moving. Edit: Well now that I am posting this, NQ decides to make a move. LOL!



CL, really smooth trend to the upside. Good entry would have been around 230 or so this morning. And, if managed properly would still be in it. Still just monitoring CL. Curious but not brave enough yet. LOL!




6E, a bit choppy but a strong move up just a little while ago. Would have been an easy catch with the swing high happening just under the 200 ema (yellow line). Trade would have also been in the direction of the intermediate trend (60 ema above 200 ema).




Time to get ready for the US session in a few hours. Now, where did I put that crystal ball??

Trade plan: Trade 6E, and NQ until near the open of US session. Then focus just on NQ for the rest of the day.

What are the M/A are they EMA or SMA T/Y

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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What are the M/A are they EMA or SMA T/Y

21,60,200,800 all ema. They are grouped together to help understand the general trend direction.

Short term: 60 vs 21.
Intermediate: 200 vs 60
Long: 800 vs 200

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 IBLAB 
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Checking the charts to see what happened during the overnight session.

NQ, quiet. No real direction. Hope US session gets it moving. Edit: Well now that I am posting this, NQ decides to make a move. LOL!



CL, really smooth trend to the upside. Good entry would have been around 230 or so this morning. And, if managed properly would still be in it. Still just monitoring CL. Curious but not brave enough yet. LOL!




6E, a bit choppy but a strong move up just a little while ago. Would have been an easy catch with the swing high happening just under the 200 ema (yellow line). Trade would have also been in the direction of the intermediate trend (60 ema above 200 ema).




Time to get ready for the US session in a few hours. Now, where did I put that crystal ball??

Trade plan: Trade 6E, and NQ until near the open of US session. Then focus just on NQ for the rest of the day.

The 24 hr MID also was 7370.25 and a multi touch rejection ! GL Trade well .

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 TradingOgre 
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Missed this nice long trade. Stepped out for a few and came back too late. Not brave enough to chase it. Got back after it already started making new highs. No real safe shot at joining the trend.

500 tick chart.



Still plenty of time in the day but not forcing it.

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 TradingOgre 
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Really good day overall. Getting better at picking entries and letting things play out. +244 ticks and no losers today. Very happy with results.



Thinking of getting the new NT8 version of Bloodhound from sharkindicators when it is released. Webinar this afternoon that is supposed to have a really good discount. I tested it a long time ago on NT7 and really liked it for the speed of testing a strategy just didn't have the funds to buy it. I will post an evaluation once I test it out.

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 IBLAB 
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TradingOgre View Post
Really good day overall. Getting better at picking entries and letting things play out. +244 ticks and no losers today. Very happy with results.



Thinking of getting the new NT8 version of Bloodhound from sharkindicators when it is released. Webinar this afternoon that is supposed to have a really good discount. I tested it a long time ago on NT7 and really liked it for the speed of testing a strategy just didn't have the funds to buy it. I will post an evaluation once I test it out.

Apprpx cost if u know NT8 version of Bloodhound from sharkindicators TYVVM

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 TradingOgre 
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IBLAB View Post
Apprpx cost if u know NT8 version of Bloodhound from sharkindicators TYVVM

Bloddhound pro for NT7 is 795.00. https://www.sharkindicators.com/products/buy-bloodhound/ NT8 version not released yet. They are supposed to have a special price during the webinar today.

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 stefan416 
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Hi TradingOrge,

Amazing results to day. Would you mind posting a chart of your entries for today. You've been killing it since starting your journal. I hope some day I can be so consistent!

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 TradingOgre 
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Hi TradingOrge,

Amazing results to day. Would you mind posting a chart of your entries for today. You've been killing it since starting your journal. I hope some day I can be so consistent!

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No problem.

Traded on the 89 tick chart today. Markets started out so slow I thought I was going to have to just scalp for some ticks. It was nice to see it break into a good trend. Missed several trades early on. Here are two of the trades. Several others that were just minor quick trades.


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 TradingOgre 
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So, I jumped in and bought BloodHound. I have to say, it is as impressive as I remember from a few years ago. In my opinion, the biggest benefit so far is the ability to very quickly evaluate trading ideas with no coding required. It really helps you to see what "valid" entries your idea actually has and how much of your trading is actually discretionary in nature. Discretionary in that somehow you are filtering out some trades but you may or may not realize that you are doing it. It will help you discover that and possibly filter those trades out via bloodhound as well.

Here is an example of what I am working on now:



The red vertical lines show where your system would have generated a sell signal. Green is for buys.

Still learning but I like the speed with which you can prototype a new system.

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 stefan416 
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No problem.

Traded on the 89 tick chart today. Markets started out so slow I thought I was going to have to just scalp for some ticks. It was nice to see it break into a good trend. Missed several trades early on. Here are two of the trades. Several others that were just minor quick trades.


Awesome! couldnt have asked for a better down move it seems. Can I ask what your entry criteria are? I've been using a similar looking chart for longer term equities as I work 8 to 5 now. Use a 10, 200 and 800 ema that I picked up from a forex forum along with the TDI inidicator. Is it safe to say you look for a strong candle or two continuation move out of the 21/60 ema with the 21/60/200/800 lined up properly? It seems so effortless for you!

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 TradingOgre 
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Awesome! couldnt have asked for a better down move it seems. Can I ask what your entry criteria are? I've been using a similar looking chart for longer term equities as I work 8 to 5 now. Use a 10, 200 and 800 ema that I picked up from a forex forum along with the TDI inidicator. Is it safe to say you look for a strong candle or two continuation move out of the 21/60 ema with the 21/60/200/800 lined up properly? It seems so effortless for you!

Effortless? LOL! You can't see the sweaty palms and racing heart. Although I am relatively new to futures, I am not new to trading. I have about 11 years under my belt trading Forex.

Looking at the trade I missed yesterday, there are two types of entries. A conservative and an aggressive entry. See the charts below for better explanations:




This is just one method I use. There are many others that come into play depending on how the markets are moving. For example, the 21 ema isn't in play if the price moved above the 200 (in a downtrend), just the 200 and the 60 are important at that point. I use the 800 ema as a possible reversal point. There are a number of subtle things I have found over the years that I look at but don't realize I do that until I try to explain my trading system. I have started to compile them into a PDF in an effort to provide a more detailed explanation as to what I do but that is taking far more time than I would have imagined.

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 ninjus 
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So, I jumped in and bought BloodHound. I have to say, it is as impressive as I remember from a few years ago. In my opinion, the biggest benefit so far is the ability to very quickly evaluate trading ideas with no coding required. It really helps you to see what "valid" entries your idea actually has and how much of your trading is actually discretionary in nature. Discretionary in that somehow you are filtering out some trades but you may or may not realize that you are doing it. It will help you discover that and possibly filter those trades out via bloodhound as well.

Here is an example of what I am working on now:



The red vertical lines show where your system would have generated a sell signal. Green is for buys.

Still learning but I like the speed with which you can prototype a new system.

Ohhh shiney!

How much is it?

I wonder does it work with gomindicators?


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 ninjus 
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Effortless? LOL! You can't see the sweaty palms and racing heart. Although I am relatively new to futures, I am not new to trading. I have about 11 years under my belt trading Forex.

Looking at the trade I missed yesterday, there are two types of entries. A conservative and an aggressive entry. See the charts below for better explanations:




This is just one method I use. There are many others that come into play depending on how the markets are moving. For example, the 21 ema isn't in play if the price moved above the 200 (in a downtrend), just the 200 and the 60 are important at that point. I use the 800 ema as a possible reversal point. There are a number of subtle things I have found over the years that I look at but don't realize I do that until I try to explain my trading system. I have started to compile them into a PDF in an effort to provide a more detailed explanation as to what I do but that is taking far more time than I would have imagined.

Are these EMA settings more dialed in for NQ or do you think they apply to any market?


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 TradingOgre 
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Ohhh shiney!

How much is it?

I wonder does it work with gomindicators?

$495 for the intro price. $795 if you want some of their pre-made strategies. You can download a demo to see if it is compatible. The only drawback to the demo is you must enable "Global Simulation Mode" to allow the demo to work. Here is a link to the download for the demo: https://www.sharkindicators.com/documentation/licensing/ Demo is good for 30 days.

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 TradingOgre 
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Are these EMA settings more dialed in for NQ or do you think they apply to any market?

Seems to work good for most markets. I use it on CL, 6E and NQ. The only difference is I use different tick charts depending on the instrument. ES works best on 2000 tick because of the volume it has. On lower time frames I tend to ignore the 21 ema since it is such a short ema. Higher time frames the 21 takes on a more significant role (500 tick and above).

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 TradingOgre 
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Are these EMA settings more dialed in for NQ or do you think they apply to any market?

When I trade the 6E, I use a 5 minute chart instead of a tick chart. Here is a set up from this morning that I wasn't paying attention to at the time. I was playing with the BloodHound software. Dang these new toys and their distractions.


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 stefan416 
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Effortless? LOL! You can't see the sweaty palms and racing heart. Although I am relatively new to futures, I am not new to trading. I have about 11 years under my belt trading Forex.

Looking at the trade I missed yesterday, there are two types of entries. A conservative and an aggressive entry. See the charts below for better explanations:




This is just one method I use. There are many others that come into play depending on how the markets are moving. For example, the 21 ema isn't in play if the price moved above the 200 (in a downtrend), just the 200 and the 60 are important at that point. I use the 800 ema as a possible reversal point. There are a number of subtle things I have found over the years that I look at but don't realize I do that until I try to explain my trading system. I have started to compile them into a PDF in an effort to provide a more detailed explanation as to what I do but that is taking far more time than I would have imagined.

Thank you for the explanation. I've basically my cut my trading ideas down into two methods. One with trend and one counter. I found that the several with trend methods I was exploring wound up providing similar entries. Do you base your trading here off of any particular resources or is it a conglomeration of what you've learned over time and pieces together. Imy biggest problem right now seems to be either getting in at the end of the trend (then reverts back to the longer emas) and getting in to early taking a loss but then getting in on a deeper retrace. A good example is in your chart where you circled.

My first scenario would be similar to the very right of your chart.

I also find alot of times an entry can look like complete garbage due to congestion directly the the left but in hindsight looks like a beautiful trade due to the large break into a trend

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 stefan416 
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5 min NQ chart between 1230est and now is a good example of me getting caught in a long trade and then having price roll over. How do you contend with that type of action?

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 TradingOgre 
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stefan416 View Post
5 min NQ chart between 1230est and now is a good example of me getting caught in a long trade and then having price roll over. How do you contend with that type of action?

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Trading the way I trade I don't see a long opportunity on the 5 min at the times you specified. I don't normally look at time based charts on NQ. I find tick based seems to give better results.



But, to answer your question I would have a fairly tight stop since the trade would have been with the overall trend. Sometimes you just gotta take the lumps and eat a full stop out.

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 stefan416 
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Trading the way I trade I don't see a long opportunity on the 5 min at the times you specified. I don't normally look at time based charts on NQ. I find tick based seems to give better results.



But, to answer your question I would have a fairly tight stop since the trade would have been with the overall trend. Sometimes you just gotta take the lumps and eat a full stop out.

I was more talking about how price looks to "roll over" into a potential trading entry zone and then wiped you out. What would have to happen in that chart for you to have a valid entry?

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 TradingOgre 
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stefan416 View Post
I was more talking about how price looks to "roll over" into a potential trading entry zone and then wiped you out. What would have to happen in that chart for you to have a valid entry?

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Price needs to close below the 60 ema then close above the 21 ema. See green lines on chart below. At this point no additional long signals have been generated (although I am still tweaking the indicator).


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 stefan416 
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Price needs to close below the 60 ema then close above the 21 ema. See green lines on chart below. At this point no additional long signals have been generated (although I am still tweaking the indicator).


I might have to load up ninjatrsder and give blood hound a try. Even just so a visual aid ot looks pretty nice. Currently using Sierra which is super nice

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 TradingOgre 
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Just realized I didn't post here yesterday.

Had another decent day. Missed several trades but still managed to pull in over 90 ticks. First trade was the roughest. Not sure why I chose where I chose to enter but it almost took me out for a full stop out. It turned about 4-5 ticks away and I jumped out for a small gain. Could have made more but I was just happy to be out of that trade. If I would have entered where I should have then it wouldn't have come close to the stop. Knocking the weekend rust off I guess. LOL!

Still playing around with BloodHound on the weekends and trying to get it to see what I see on the charts isn't really any easier than just writing hard code. It's really good at things like comparing values but not so good on finding specific chart patterns unless you have an indicator dedicated for that and it has outputs that BloodHound can read. Still like it and think it is worth the investment. I put it aside during the week so I don't get distracted trying to refine it.

Been dragging my feet on completing step one of the TST combine. Still have a little ways to go but very near completion. Total max drawdown to this point has only been 0.8% which happened on the first day of trading the combine. Go figure. LOL! Account, when I trade it, has been on a slow steady climb since then. There have been no losing days since the first one. What was the difference? Stopped trying to fight the trend. I don't care if I miss half of the trend while it reverses. You can make a fortune only capturing 10% of the moves in any given day.

I wanted to post about something I read on another forum this morning. Someone was complaining that they felt the market was "rigged" due to the number of computers trading their algorithms. Their argument centered around how ES moved in a steady uptrend most of yesterday with little or no pullbacks. So, being a retired programmer I wanted to share my thoughts around computers and automated trading. When someone has a bad day trading it is very easy to fall into a trap of placing the blame on something external. "It's not my fault, the market is rigged" When, in reality, computers and automated trading doing most of the work these days have made trading easier in my opinion. Why? Fear and greed are not in the equation when a computer is doing the trading. It MUST abide by the rules programmed into the software. It cannot deviate from that plan. If you can see how the markets are working then why not just follow the market? Don't fight it, figure it out and join the party and ride the wave.

Ok enough rambling, let's get ready for today's trading.

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 TradingOgre 
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Will the bull and the bear battling it out over NQ please stop. One of you needs to give up so we can pick a direction and go with it. LOL!


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 trendisyourfriend 
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TradingOgre View Post
Will the bull and the bear battling it out over NQ please stop. One of you needs to give up so we can pick a direction and go with it. LOL!


We got a measured move to Yesterday high (RTH) and the 61.8% retracement. I amnot expert in harmonic trading but this was surely a level watched by many for going long.


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 TradingOgre 
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A massive 10 ticks of profit. LOL! I promise I won't spend it all in one place.

Not all days have really nice long smooth trends. At least I survived it. Need a t-shirt for proof.

Missed a few entries that would have been reasonably profitable. Hard to tell by just looking back at it. Everything looks different in the heat of battle.

Will hang around for a bit looking for a few more scalps so I can get the wife a Starbucks coffee.

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 stefan416 
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Mind posting a chart? I didn't even touch NQ today. It looked like a mess. Forex wasnt much better. Alot of continuation moves that reversed

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 TradingOgre 
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Here ya' go.


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 stefan416 
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Awesome, thank you. Can I ask why you didn't enter where your first arrow is? Based on the break of the small swing immediately before it?

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 TradingOgre 
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stefan416 View Post
Awesome, thank you. Can I ask why you didn't enter where your first arrow is? Based on the break of the small swing immediately before it?

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Just a visual judgement call. I don't like the minor swings that are really close to the downtrend (in this case). The second one that I missed due to a distraction has a good bit more room between it and the downtrend. Hope that makes sense. More of a personal preference than a must do.

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