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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View


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Day Trading from an Ogre's Point of View

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  #101 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Have you ever noticed that whenever you think you see something new on a chart that would help you to join the trend or find a reversal point early that the very next time it shows up, it fails? LOL! Doesn't mean it doesn't work most of the time it just seems like something I have noticed since starting this journey into Futures.

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  #102 (permalink)
 ninjus 
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TradingOgre View Post
Have you ever noticed that whenever you think you see something new on a chart that would help you to join the trend or find a reversal point early that the very next time it shows up, it fails? LOL! Doesn't mean it doesn't work most of the time it just seems like something I have noticed since starting this journey into Futures.

All the damn time. LOL.

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  #103 (permalink)
 motika1964 
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TradingOgre View Post
I don't think I said there was 200 ticks but looking at the chart and the right side scale 7390-7320 is 70 points times 4 ticks per point = 280 ticks.



Youíre right, Iím just trying to figure out your chart and strategy, I use Sierra instead NT and when you configure a chart to 200 ticks each candle represent that, in this case (280 ticks) will be just 2 candles. I changed my chart to 200 trades per candle and looks pretty similar than yours. Anyway, thanks for taking your time to answer


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  #104 (permalink)
 texastodd 
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Hi Mo,
Been following along and saw your question - I too use SC.
If I understand your question, I'm hoping the title helps clear up the nomenclature.
From the manual: https://www.sierrachart.com/index.php?page=doc/ChartSettings.html

Great journal O - keep up the good work!

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  #105 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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motika1964 View Post
Youíre right, Iím just trying to figure out your chart and strategy, I use Sierra instead NT and when you configure a chart to 200 ticks each candle represent that, in this case (280 ticks) will be just 2 candles. I changed my chart to 200 trades per candle and looks pretty similar than yours. Anyway, thanks for taking your time to answer


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FYI, "ticks" when used with "tick charts" means the same as "trades," not "ticks" of price. So a 200 tick chart is the same as a 200 trade chart.

Yes, it is confusing. I have no idea why the same word means totally different things, but it does.

Now, returning this thread back to @TradingOgre .

Bob.

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  #106 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Took one trade at market open around 9:40 am. Based on a rejection candle from the 200 ema. And the other ema's being lined up to go long. Kept it for 50 full points. Puts me at +1k for the day. Didn't take the rest of the move.

This trade was a good example of why I don't have a bias as to any direction during the day. I take trades based on what I am seeing on the chart that I am looking at and it works well for me. If it happens to line up with other time frames then all the better.

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  #107 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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I think I see something about Futures that may be the key at least for me. In Forex, you could safely use the body of a candle in a swing high or low as your entry point. It would take it and normally continue that direction. In futures, NQ especially use the wicks plus 2-3 ticks as the entry point. NQ likes to come up to it move just enough to take it and then move some against you. If you pick the right swing it will eventually move your direction. Sometimes it will move a good bit against you before continuing in the right direction. I saw it do that just a little while ago and took another 110 profit. Trade was only red for about 1 minute.

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  #108 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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+140 on the last trade of the day. Great day overall when you consider I am only trading 1 contract. Overall +1250. A few more days like that and it will be time to move to 2 contracts.

Still left some potential earnings on the table but with some self-improvement that should get better as well. Overall very happy with the day and with some things I observed regarding entries (see previous post).

Strategy has a big bug in it. It stops updating the horizontal line whenever I add another horizontal line to the chart. The code searches by Tag so it should find it but it doesn't. Turned it off for now. Going back to pending orders for trades.

I took the code for finding entries around the moving averages and turned it into an indicator for now. That way I can still get alerts for potential set ups.

The goal for this week is to string together 3 or more positive days and to be positive overall for the week.

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  #109 (permalink)
 cory 
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TradingOgre View Post
..

Strategy has a big bug in it. It stops updating the horizontal line whenever I add another horizontal line to the chart. The code searches by Tag so it should find it but it doesn't. ...

my skill is not up to that level but trader EDGE use this technique in his eSwingRays to label all rays on the chart,
it's NT7 but hopefully it gives you some idea for NT8

Quoting 
public override void Plot(Graphics graphics, Rectangle bounds, double min, double max)
{
if (labelRays)
{
int i;

// Define the SizeF Class
SizeF stringSize = new SizeF() ;

foreach (ChartObject co in ChartControl.ChartObjects)
{
if (co is ChartRay && co.Tag.Contains ("Ray"))
{
ChartRay l1 = (co as ChartRay);

int x2 = bounds.Width;
format1.Alignment = StringAlignment.Far;
double y1 = l1.EndY;
int y2 = (bounds.Y + bounds.Height) - ((int)(((y1 - min) / ChartControl.MaxMinusMin(max, min)) * bounds.Height));
string s = l1.EndY.ToString(priceFormat);
stringSize = graphics.MeasureString( s, largerFont ) ;
graphics.DrawString(s, largerFont, l1.Pen.Brush, x2, (y2 - stringSize.Height), format1);

}
}

}
}


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  #110 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
+140 on the last trade of the day. Great day overall when you consider I am only trading 1 contract. Overall +1250. A few more days like that and it will be time to move to 2 contracts.

Still left some potential earnings on the table but with some self-improvement that should get better as well. Overall very happy with the day and with some things I observed regarding entries (see previous post).

Strategy has a big bug in it. It stops updating the horizontal line whenever I add another horizontal line to the chart. The code searches by Tag so it should find it but it doesn't. Turned it off for now. Going back to pending orders for trades.

I took the code for finding entries around the moving averages and turned it into an indicator for now. That way I can still get alerts for potential set ups.

The goal for this week is to string together 3 or more positive days and to be positive overall for the week.

It seems like you trade for a decent amount of time, curious on how you stay in the zone for 8-10 hours.
Congrats on the day !!

Thanks

-P

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  #111 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
It seems like you trade for a decent amount of time, curious on how you stay in the zone for 8-10 hours.
Congrats on the day !!

Thanks

-P

I am used to working 10-12 hour shifts at work. Did it for about 25 years. The alerts from the indicator help in that I don't have to focus on the charts the entire time. When the alert sounds, I check the charts to see if I agree with the signal or if I need to move a pending order, etc. I spend time reading (learning about options now) or watching YouTube video's on trading, etc. It would be nearly impossible to scalp for that long.

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  #112 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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cory View Post
my skill is not up to that level but trader EDGE use this technique in his eSwingRays to label all horz lines on the chart,
it's NT7 but hopefully it gives you some idea for NT8

Thanks. I will check this out on the weekend.

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  #113 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
I am used to working 10-12 hour shifts at work. Did it for about 25 years. The alerts from the indicator help in that I don't have to focus on the charts the entire time. When the alert sounds, I check the charts to see if I agree with the signal or if I need to move a pending order, etc. I spend time reading (learning about options now) or watching YouTube video's on trading, etc. It would be nearly impossible to scalp for that long.

I'm not sure if you've covered this yet and if you have forgive me but are you using blood hound or anything let that to setup these alerts/system or are you just using the NT platform to code. Seting up an alert based system doesn't sound like a bad idea.

-P

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  #114 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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MiniP View Post
I'm not sure if you've covered this yet and if you have forgive me but are you using blood hound or anything let that to setup these alerts/system or are you just using the NT platform to code. Seting up an alert based system doesn't sound like a bad idea.

-P

Just using NT. It's not hard to set something up that draws a triangle where the signal triggers and then play a sound.

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  #115 (permalink)
 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Just using NT. It's not hard to set something up that draws a triangle where the signal triggers and then play a sound.

Have to look into it, my programming skills are pretty weak haha

Thanks again.

-P

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  #116 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Decent volume today. Better than the last several days. Hope that trend continues.

Plan for tomorrow is to start at the normal early a.m. time and go back to posting all of the pending and active trades. All of my earnings today were made after the U.S. opened. Will most likely go to trading just days starting next week.

Currently looking at the signals the indicator generates to see if it is giving mostly correct signals. I may just place a pending order a few ticks above the high of the signal candle to try and reduce the time spent in the red. Maybe have one pending that I can just drag into place once a signal is generated. I will probably realize over time that it isn't even necessary and to just play the swing high's and low's in the right place. Time will tell.

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  #117 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Not much action through the night. A re-test of yesterday's high and about 14 points worth of movement.

Switched to the higher time frame to draw some support and resistance lines. Looking back to March of last year finds that we haven't been this high so no way to draw some resistance lines above where we are now.




Also looking back there is about a 50/50 chance we will just chop all day today. This is based on looking at the higher time frame and seeing what happened the day after a 100+ point move. Won't really be able to tell until U.S. opens.

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  #118 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Nothing but chop right now. 200 tick chart:


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  #119 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Just hanging out at a support area. Not much going on.


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  #120 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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TradingOgre View Post
Nothing but chop right now. 200 tick chart:

..

yes, choppy before open

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  #121 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Only took one trade so far and it was a scalp for +95. Markets were really choppy for a while and I wanted to wait for things to smooth out some before starting. They are looking better now so maybe after lunch they will pick a direction and go with it.

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  #122 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Could be stuck in a range during lunch (green lines). I will look for a fake out breakout near the end of lunch followed by the real move whichever direction that may be. If the breakout gets above the blue line (resistance) then we could see higher. NQ lagging behind YM and ES today.

Still observing the indicator to refine it a bit more. Way too many false signals.


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  #123 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Nice to know the resistance line was in the right place. LOL!


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  #124 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Stuck back in the range again after a double fake out.


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  #125 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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So, what's gone right and what's gone wrong today?

Right: 1. Rode through the chop without getting chopped.
2. I was patient. Markets like this can and will test your patience.

Wrong:
1.Need to improve scalping technique to take advantage of these types of markets. There is money to be made just not as easily as a trending market. Will end up paying a good bit more in commissions but profit is profit.
2. Need to trust the system more. The choppy market made me hesitant to take a trade. A large majority of them could have been small or even decent profit based on a quick glance back




Technically it is a green day. +95 doesn't even count as minimum wage but it is profit. Average out the last two days and I am still happy. I will chalk up the rest of the day to a learning experience. After all, I have only been trading Futures live for a couple of weeks. I can definitely say it would have been much more difficult if I didn't already have trading experience under my belt.

When I first started Forex it was at the beginning of the bubble back in 2007-2008. We had 400:1 leverage and the ability to hedge. I doubled my account one day and margin called the next. LOL! Haven't had that problem here.

Homework for this evening: Investigate scalping techniques to see what I can incorporate into my trading style. I will also go back and count signals on a lower time frame to see how efficient they are at picking out at least small profit trades. If anyone reading this has suggestions for scalping systems don't hesitate to link them in this journal. I welcome all learning opportunities.

I will still get up early Thursday and Friday but not any more starting next week. Part of the problem may be fatigue setting in by the time I get to the U.S. session. It may not be apparent to me but in this market any slowdown in computing speed is not a good thing.

Hope everyone is enjoying the journal. How do you like my new avatar?? Leftover from an old project that never got off the ground.

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  #126 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Looking at the higher time frame chart (12000 tick) yesterday looks as boring as it felt. LOL! Overnight volume is lighter today than yesterday with the first bar of the day not even completed as of yet.

No significant news pending today or Friday. The Futures markets don't seem to be as sensitive to news as the currency markets. I know interest rates and job numbers can move it.

Spent some time last night checking out the signal indicator that I built for accuracy. At this point it is 71% correct if you take the first appearance of the signal. I didn't go back far enough to be able to say 71% is the average result. I only went back a couple of days.

Will be trading the lower time frames today until we get closer to the U.S. session.

Time to see what today brings.

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  #127 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Near the opening of U.S. session. Took +200 profit. Set up like a trade I had last week. This time I bracketed the market further apart. Jumped out when it started to pull back. The market open can be a bit tricky so I chickened out. LOL!





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  #128 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Bracketed market again. Price spiked down and took the short. Don't like it when it just spikes down. I have seen many times where it will reverse right after a spike. Moved the stop quickly just in case. Got taken out for just +20 profit. Missed the rest of the drop. I hear clucking....




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  #129 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Should have waited for a bigger pull back but entered short. Drifted along for about 20 minutes until it finally turned green and I jumped out just in time. +30 so +250 for the day so far.

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  #130 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Looks like things are settling down a bit. That first hour at open is a blast. Grabbed a quick scalp for +20 so +270 on the day.

Maybe we will finally pick a direction and stick with it today.

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  #131 (permalink)
 TradingOgre 
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Didn't trade any more today. Got distracted making a modification to the candlestick pattern indicator in NT8. I have uploaded it to the indicator section. It allows you to select (by checkbox) which candlestick patterns you want to see. You can also just select find_all and it will find all of them. The original one only allowed you to pick one pattern from a drop down menu.




It's much easier than having to load multiple copies of the indicator to get it to show more than one candlestick pattern.

Ended up +270 for today which makes day 3 in a row for being profitable. Very happy with that. Not happy with my chicken sh** style of trading. That's also why I stopped trading. Could have easily been +1500 today. I started looking for good ways to find the end of a trend or find indication that it may continue. That's why I started looking into the candlestick patterns. I was looking for some sort of confirmation that the trend may continue. Candlestick patterns may be something to help. Not sure yet. I got frustrated with the version that came with NT 8 that only allowed one pattern to be chosen.

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FxRamses
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Thanks for sharing all of this with us. I have just started trading futures again myself. I once was a futures trader many years ago, and pursued different career paths, but kept trading stocks and options and a bit of fx. My objective is to go back to full trading again, trading futures that suits me better for many reasons.
My approach is more short term, looking at 5 min charts, only for day trades. One of the reasons is that it allows me to place shorter stops, hence risking less capital per trades, but on larger positions.
I am interrested to know how you handle stops using daily timeframes.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Thanks for sharing all of this with us. I have just started trading futures again myself. I once was a futures trader many years ago, and pursued different career paths, but kept trading stocks and options and a bit of fx. My objective is to go back to full trading again, trading futures that suits me better for many reasons.
My approach is more short term, looking at 5 min charts, only for day trades. One of the reasons is that it allows me to place shorter stops, hence risking less capital per trades, but on larger positions.
I am interrested to know how you handle stops using daily timeframes.

For Futures I only look at the longer time frames to get an idea of where to place support and resistance lines. For the most part I am looking at the 200 tick and 500 tick chart. They seem to give the clearest picture of what is going on with price movement.

Now, I do trade the daily charts for spot Forex. This allows me to check the charts once a day and make adjustments. Stops are initially way back with much smaller position size. At least 50 pips behind the last swing in price. Once it moves a good bit I will move my stop but sometimes that doesn't happen for weeks. It is my main source of income and Futures is just getting started.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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So, here we are at the end of Thursday. One more trading day this week. What's going through this bucket head of mine?

Mostly good entries today. Only had one trade that even approached my initial stop. There was no real indication that the direction was changing so I stayed put. Towards the end of the trade it started to look more and more like a classic 1-2-3 pattern so I set a buy limit 2 ticks into profit. I also squeezed in my stop a good bit just in case it didn't hit the buy limit. To the tick it tagged it and I was out of the trade with a very small profit. All of the other trades today moved into profit fairly quickly and stayed there until I would chicken out and close the trade.

I get so excited with the speedy price movement that I feel like a chihuahua on crack. Need to back off and let the trade develop. Doing so would have put a bunch of money in the hip national bank. All profitable trades today so I can't complain there. What is dangerous about my chicken trading is the risk/reward is way out of wack. One bad trade will take multiple good trades to make up.

I am letting too much distract me from trading. Missed out on several trades while I was playing with the candlestick pattern indicator. Not a good way to spend trading time. Will have to work on that. Especially as I stop trading early morning hours and only have the U.S. session to trade. Trading should be the only focus during that time.

Goals for Friday: Last day of early morning trading. Would love to crush it tomorrow. Hopefully the markets will agree and give me a long term trend trade that lasts most of the day. If not, I will hit and run as much as I can. Focus is on letting trades develop and run as long as possible.

Overall it has been a good week. Would love for Friday to turn it into a great week.

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 TradingOgre 
Evans GA/USA
 
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Interesting price movement during the night. 57+ points. Enough to clear stops on almost all of the price movement from yesterday. Now it is trying to move back up. With some strength I might add.

Maybe this is a good sign for today's price movement. We will know in a little while.

No significant news events scheduled today although you never know about politicians.

Ready for the day.

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 TradingOgre 
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A little bit of a fight going on around 7394 area. Tested 3 times now and pushing for a 4th. Will it break through this time?


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 TradingOgre 
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No trades so far today. Why? Not like there hasn't been plenty of really good opportunities. Hesitation mostly. I really didn't want to blow a good week on a Friday.

Not happy with myself today but still pleased with the progress I have made in trading Futures.

Really curious to see how I do next week when I only trade the normal day hours. My guess is that without the fatigue of getting up early that I can be more focused during the most active time for NQ.

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 TradingOgre 
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I pulled up a daily chart for NQ just to get a longer term feel for what is going on. What's really interesting is the spike in volume back in April. Since that time period volume has been on a steady decline with a steady increase in price. We have seen a nearly 500 point increase in the last 13 trading days. We have seen a move of over 1000 points since the last time price was at the 200 ema back in April when the spike in volume occurred.




Now, the steady decline in volume may just be a return to "normal" but I believe it is something to keep an eye on. A drop back to the 200 ema would make it about 600 points.

There was a decent correction back in June which dropped it about 300 points. Do I believe the markets are about to drop and correct? I have no idea. LOL! Looking back to the drop in April, when price broke below the big candle from March 9 is when the real drop started. We had a significant move up back on Tuesday. If the pattern continues a drop below about 7280 may be the start of another correction. 4 of the 5 trading days this week were red.

I started looking at VWAP yesterday (at the recommendation of @texastodd)and it looks interesting when you combine it with my normal style of trading. It seems to be really useful in providing confirmation at what my normal trading style is showing me. I will be studying it intensely this weekend to see if I want to trade it live next week. It definitely is worth some time.

Ordered a couple of books on candlestick patterns. I am hoping to be able to use them as a good early reversal indication. However, using the candlestick pattern indicator in NT 8 it doesn't appear to be reliable on lower timeframes. Not sure if those are programmed the same at what Steve Nison recommends but I will check it out and make changes based on his style of candles.

The one key thing about trading swings in price is trying to figure out how much of a swing is significant enough to use as a possible turning point. The goal is to minimize the "pain" of a trade staying in the red for a long time. The swing indicator in NT 8 is ok but it tends to miss ones that I can see visually but they don't meet the rules it needs to see a swing.

Tons of studying to do this weekend. I plan on scribbling all over the 200 tick charts. LOL!

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 TradingOgre 
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Long short short long short long.... oh whatever. LOL!

Spent the majority of the weekend studying charts. Running the market replay simulator in NT 8. Tried everything from the 50 tick chart to a 1000 tick chart. Not like in 1 tick increments. LOL! 50,89,100,200,500,750,1000. Here is what I see.

50 tick chart, ok if the markets are really slow like 1-6 a.m. Eastern time US. As you get closer to market open the speed of the candles almost makes it impossible to work with. Some groups of candles are sub 1 second each. Would be fine for a strategy to run but not a human. Results are sporadic for me at this tick size. Sometimes you get in at a really good price with a really good stop other times it isn't much different than the 200. Sometimes the swing really isn't a swing just price movement.

89-100: Close to the same. Of course 89 gives a bit more detail than the 100 but overall both are good for scalping up to about 7-8 a.m. depending on volume. At 930 hang on it gets crazy. 1-2 second candles. Sometimes groups of candles all show up with about the same time.

200: Gives the best overall results for entries. Very consistent. A swing that you can see on the 200 is usually a valid swing. If you are patient enough, it even works well during the early morning hours. You will miss some of the small trades the 50 tick will give you but not enough to matter. Consistency wins with this tick chart.

500: Great for longer term intraday trades. Candlestick patterns start to matter at this tick level. Look for price movement at or around the different levels for the VWAP indicator or at support and resistance.

750: For some reason this doesn't seem to work very well with NQ. Maybe with ES. Haven't tried it.

1000: Best overall for longer term but still intraday trades. 1-3 opportunities every day. Candlestick patterns seem to work well also. I really like the 1000 tick chart. Jump in from the 200 tick chart and then run it from the 1000.
Going to play around a bit more this evening.

Hope everyone has a really green week.

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 TradingOgre 
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Doesn't seem like I missed much in early morning trading.

Looking at the 12,000 tick chart we are sitting on the 200 ema after the drop since markets opened. If price gets below and stays below the 200 ema we could be in for a drop today. Next potential support would be around 7292.



No real clarity on the 200 tick chart as of yet. Price has come up to test VWAP a few times with it being rejected each time. I have the potential support and resistance lines drawn from Friday's trading (blue horizontal lines). I don't like entering trades when the market is sideways like it is right now. There is a possible short opportunity at around 7332.50. With a possible long above 7343.75. Will probably wait for the markets to move some before placing any pending orders.

The blue shaded areas on the chart are from the VWAP indicator showing the std dev lines.


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 IBLAB 
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Doesn't seem like I missed much in early morning trading.

Looking at the 12,000 tick chart we are sitting on the 200 ema after the drop since markets opened. If price gets below and stays below the 200 ema we could be in for a drop today. Next potential support would be around 7292.



No real clarity on the 200 tick chart as of yet. Price has come up to test VWAP a few times with it being rejected each time. I have the potential support and resistance lines drawn from Friday's trading (blue horizontal lines). I don't like entering trades when the market is sideways like it is right now. There is a possible short opportunity at around 7332.50. With a possible long above 7343.75. Will probably wait for the markets to move some before placing any pending orders.

The blue shaded areas on the chart are from the VWAP indicator showing the std dev lines.



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 TradingOgre 
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Pending short but I am hoping price will give me a good swing near resistance.


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 TradingOgre 
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Slightly better entry point, however, it would put entering just above the VWAP line which can and does act like support/resistance and we are getting close to US market open in about 40 minutes. I will hold where the entry is currently located and see what it does if it gets down to VWAP.


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 TradingOgre 
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Finally got filled.




Edit: Closed it out after it rejected off of the lower band of VWAP. +240 on the trade and the day.

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 TradingOgre 
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Took one small scalp after the initial trade. Ended up +255 for the day.

Stepped out for a bit and missed some good trades. But I am ok with it. I had a headache and trading was not a good idea at the time. The first trade I could have gotten in earlier but kept the entry where it was because of the opening of the U.S. markets. At first I wasn't happy about the decision but after a while I realized it was the smart and conservative thing to do. I got out a little early but the exit point made sense and in all reality if I would have waited until another swing developed to move my stop I would have gotten out within a few ticks of where I did exit.



Now that I am feeling more comfortable with NQ I have set some lofty goals for myself. To push myself and reach these goals I am going to put them in this journal. YOU guys can hold me accountable. There will be no hard feelings if you do.

Goals:

Beginning with 1 contract per instrument traded build a full time income by the end of September 2018. I consider a full time income as being above $10,000 USD per month. As proof I will post a copy of my daily activity report from Phillip Capital (minus name, the street address and the account number of course) in this journal. I will leave the city and state along with anything else in the report. I will also keep a running total of the profit/loss per day in calendar format so everyone can see an overview of what is going on.

You should be able to match up the report with what I post here for confirmation. The only difference will be the commissions being taken out. But I can post that info during the day as well.

Account size: The initial size of the account doesn't really matter. In fact I probably won't post that until some time in the future. I am going to start with just 1 contract. Since this is the minimum you can start with and everyone has to at least start with 1 contract I felt this was a fair place to start. I will only increase the number of contracts for every 5k the account grows. So, at 0 growth it's one contract, at 5k growth it is 2, at 10k it is 3, etc,etc. To be successful in this challenge, my income for the month of September MUST be 10k or greater. Then I must maintain that level of income through the end of the year.

I am allowed to trade when I want for however long I want each day to reach this goal.

So, why am I doing this? I love challenges. It helps keep me motivated. Getting the people in this forum to hold me accountable just makes it even more of a challenge. The real question is can it be done in such a short time frame? The simple math says it is possible, the only variable left undefined is the trader.

I will also be switching to just doing an update to this journal once a day. It may be multiple posts but it will only happen at the end of the trading day.

Oh, when does it start???? July 23rd 2018 of course. No time like the present. So hang on this could be a bumpy ride. LOL!

Here is today's profit/loss calendar:



I will post the activity report when they send it. Sometimes it isn't until late in the evening.

Crazy spike in NQ price at the end of the day.

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 dralion 
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I am also a Trader of NQ ... I will follow you and share the little things I have learned ... I have the same 10K Monthly Goal


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 dralion 
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 TradingOgre 
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Here is yesterday's account activity statement.




Attached in PDF format as well.

Seems like we are in a never ending rally. Dow futures are up 120+ NQ is up 14. It will be interesting to see what today brings.

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 TradingOgre 
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One trade today. For a whopping +20 in profit. LOL! Felt out of sync with the market today. Letting every little thing distract me and every doubt creep in.

The system works when you work the system.

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 TradingOgre 
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At today's blazing 4 tick profit pace my estimate for reaching the goal of 10k per month will still happen.... In March.... of 2022!! Not including taking out for commissions.... LOL!

I need to work on my focus.

Oh well, it is what it is. The market will only give you what you earn.





Going to take a bit of a break and then I have some homework to do. Need to break this habit of second guessing myself and the system I developed.

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 MiniP 
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At today's blazing 4 tick profit pace my estimate for reaching the goal of 10k per month will still happen.... In March.... of 2022!! Not including taking out for commissions.... LOL!

I need to work on my focus.

Oh well, it is what it is. The market will only give you what you earn.





Going to take a bit of a break and then I have some homework to do. Need to break this habit of second guessing myself and the system I developed.

Green is green even if its a little green its still better then red!!

-P

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 TradingOgre 
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Yesterdays activity statement:



PDF attached as well.

Couldn't sleep so I decided to check the markets and see what is happening. Took a trade:



Not the best entry. Should have been at the lower swing high. I went conservative because the volume seemed light and price was jumping around a bit.

Squeezed the stop too close and got taken out for a +105 trade. Naturally price then turned and went higher. Good result overall for an early morning trade:



Should have backed off on the stop. Didn't pay attention to it being right around previous days close. Decent trade overall.

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 TradingOgre 
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Price stuck in a channel right now. May take market open to push it anywhere. Volume all night was low and no real strong movement either direction.

I will wait for a while to see what price does.


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 TradingOgre 
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Just about time to.......

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 TradingOgre 
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Not going to complain. Finished out +105. Still having issues with following the system. Just something I have to work on to get better. 3 consecutive days profitable is nice.

I was thinking it may be the speed of the movement at lower tick charts that could be causing my hesitation. I have been studying the 1000 tick charts and may start to focus on just that chart.

Here is today's results:



Good thing I couldn't sleep last night otherwise today could have been a bust. LOL!


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 TradingOgre 
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WOW! 65 Point sell off at the end of the day in less than 5 minutes.


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 MiniP 
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WOW! 65 Point sell off at the end of the day in less than 5 minutes.


I wonder why, the Trump/Junker news should be looked at as good news.
Curious to see if we keep the sell off going tomorrow since it was unable to hold the highs up to close.

Might get a little ETH trading in tonight if this is whats in store.


-P

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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
I wonder why, the Trump/Junker news should be looked at as good news.
Curious to see if we keep the sell off going tomorrow since it was unable to hold the highs up to close.

Might get a little ETH trading in tonight if this is whats in store.


-P

Fun to watch like any news event. Just don't want to be on the wrong side of it.

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 TradingOgre 
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Gapped down to below the low from today's trading session. Wiping out the entire move up. Insane move.


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 Blue Eagle 
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TradingOgre View Post
Gapped down to below the low from today's trading session. Wiping out the entire move up. Insane move.


I was sitting here when it happened and took a shot at 1 contract long after it settled for a minute... in at 7410 and jumped out for a measly $90 when it looked like it was getting weak again... then, of course, it popped up. I hate when I listen to the nonsense reasons my brain comes up with to execute trade situations.... stop was at BE and all I had to do was leave it alone for 3-4 times that at a minimum...or just trail my stop up if it kept going.

Was quite a move though... apparently Facebook still has some pull.

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 TheShrike 
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It has nothing to do with Trump or anything else. Facebook reported earnings and the stock price was down over 20% after hours. It makes up something like 6% of the index by weight I believe.

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 TradingOgre 
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TheShrike View Post
It has nothing to do with Trump or anything else. Facebook reported earnings and the stock price was down over 20% after hours. It makes up something like 6% of the index by weight I believe.

Your post made me go do some research.

Here is a list of the Nasdaq100 and their weighting:

https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/nasdaq-100-stocks.aspx

You were right about Facebook being about 6%.

I need to create a watchlist of all of the stocks just to keep an eye on news events related to the NQ.

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 TheShrike 
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TradingOgre View Post
Your post made me go do some research.

Here is a list of the Nasdaq100 and their weighting:

https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/nasdaq-100-stocks.aspx

You were right about Facebook being about 6%.

I need to create a watchlist of all of the stocks just to keep an eye on news events related to the NQ.

Now you're thinking. The top 5 stocks by weight are Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook. Those 5 make up about 50% of the index itself. Something to keep in mind if you're trading NQ.

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 TradingOgre 
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Looks like the European markets don't want to commit to anything yet. Hanging out around the VWAP line.

I have a pending sell in just in case they decide to continue the downtrend.

Short timeframe (50 tick, chart below) shows a some movement to the upside but it doesn't look strong at this point. VWAP acting as resistance.


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 TradingOgre 
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Market is trapped. If it ever makes up its mind I am ready.


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 TradingOgre 
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Down we go.


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 TradingOgre 
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Moved the stop down to the small swing and price came up and took it. +25 profit.

May get another shot at a short after it pulls back some.


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 TradingOgre 
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Finally got the activity statement for 7-25-2018.


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 ninjus 
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TradingOgre View Post
Finally got the activity statement for 7-25-2018.


Nice work man!


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 ninjus 
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Got a reversal print on YM and NQ. Nice confluence.



Might have to have a play with Equities soon.


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 TradingOgre 
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ninjus View Post
Got a reversal print on YM and NQ. Nice confluence.



Might have to have a play with Equities soon.

Nice! I was watching a longer timeframe chart trying to build a system that allows trades to run longer. Should have taken the long around 7403 but the day is young.

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 ninjus 
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Nice! I was watching a longer timeframe chart trying to build a system that allows trades to run longer. Should have taken the long around 7403 but the day is young.

What time frame you preferring right now?


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 TradingOgre 
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Early morning (for me) when the markets are really slow the 50 tick provides some decent action. As we get closer to the market open in the U.S., the 500 tick and 1000 tick seem to provide really good longer term trades.

50 tick is fun to watch during the market open. It's like watching a movie on fast forward.

Here is the 1000 tick from yesterday


ninjus View Post
What time frame you preferring right now?


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 TradingOgre 
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Keeps testing VWAP and keeps getting rejected. Tough to take a long where price is now with VWAP just above it.


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 TradingOgre 
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Two additional small profitable trades. Total is +50 on the day. Still a bunch more trading to go.

Made a small change to my entry signals and I am getting much cleaner and more believable signals. Gets me in earlier than waiting for price to pass a swing high or low.

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 TradingOgre 
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Here is what the changes to the entry signal look like:




Much cleaner. No real excuse to not take them now.

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 TradingOgre 
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Nice! +220 on this trade. +270 on the day.




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 TradingOgre 
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Narrow range when you look at it on the 1000 tick chart. Especially when compared to yesterday. You almost would expect a day of consolidation after a wild ride like yesterday.




Looking for another trade set up if it happens. Not going to force it. Ranging pretty tight right now on the 200 tick chart. Bouncing off of VWAP line.



Maybe there will be another mad rush at the end of the day. LOL!

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 MiniP 
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TradingOgre View Post
Narrow range when you look at it on the 1000 tick chart. Especially when compared to yesterday. You almost would expect a day of consolidation after a wild ride like yesterday.




Looking for another trade set up if it happens. Not going to force it. Ranging pretty tight right now on the 200 tick chart. Bouncing off of VWAP line.



Maybe there will be another mad rush at the end of the day. LOL!

hoping for another mad rush... been in a trade since 10am lol

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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
hoping for another mad rush... been in a trade since 10am lol

Short or long?

You have far more patience than I do. LOL!

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 MiniP 
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Short or long?

You have far more patience than I do. LOL!

short, it's been a total shit position and I should of closed at b/e multiple time but trying to hold out. Im most likely going to have to close before the end of the day hopefully we get a sell off cause Im damn near the bottom lol.

-P

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 TradingOgre 
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MiniP View Post
short, it's been a total shit position and I should of closed at b/e multiple time but trying to hold out. Im most likely going to have to close before the end of the day hopefully we get a sell off cause Im damn near the bottom lol.

-P

How's that?

LOL


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 TradingOgre 
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Today's final results:

+270 which makes day 4 in a row of being green. Loving the consistency and account growth but still not taking all of the set ups. Growth would be much better if I did.



here is this months calendar:




Friday's plan: Trade the 50 tick chart early in the morning only taking premium entries. Once the first trade is on, switch to the 200 tick chart to manage. As the day goes on stay on the 200 for entries and manage on the 1000 tick. Looking to stay in trades longer but still get really good entries.

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 TradingOgre 
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7-26-2018 Activity Statement




PDF Attached as well.

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 TradingOgre 
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It's sad when the 50 tick chart is slow....

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 teamtc247 
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TradingOgre View Post
It's sad when the 50 tick chart is slow....

Haha, liking that 50 tick eh? Checkout the tick data with Heikin Ashi candlesticks it smooths it out compared to regular candlesticks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Process oriented goals #1.
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 TradingOgre 
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teamtc247 View Post
Haha, liking that 50 tick eh? Checkout the tick data with Heikin Ashi candlesticks it smooths it out compared to regular candlesticks.

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

I really like it early in the morning. As the day goes on and volume increases it just moves too fast for this old fart.

I will give the Heikin Ashi a look this weekend. Thanks for the suggestion.

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 TradingOgre 
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There were two trade opportunities I did NOT take this morning. I decided not to because of how price was moving. Very sporadic where you would have several "normal" candles then a spurt of 8-10 instantaneously then back to quiet.

Here is a 5 minute volumetric candle that shows the huge imbalance between buyers and sellers about 530 a.m. eastern:



Left column is bid and right is ask. It was also a huge (relative to a 5 minute chart) spike in volume that went completely away the next candle.

Will wait for U.S. session to make any trades.

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 TradingOgre 
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So much opportunity.... so much hesitation..... ugh!!



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 TradingOgre 
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Like this:



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 Blue Eagle 
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TradingOgre View Post
Like this:



Yes, it's quite a day on the NQ today... trying to learn new things to watch for as far as swings and levels... Once we were back thru the Weekly Open @ 7368, which has been defended a couple times I was pretty sure we would put in a good move... caught some but not all...
I'm enjoying your thoughts and journal.
Good luck...
Craig

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 TradingOgre 
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Blue Eagle View Post
Yes, it's quite a day on the NQ today... trying to learn new things to watch for as far as swings and levels... Once we were back thru the Weekly Open @ 7368, which has been defended a couple times I was pretty sure we would put in a good move... caught some but not all...
I'm enjoying your thoughts and journal.
Good luck...
Craig

Thanks. I will eventually get the hang of it and not miss so many trades. It is just a matter of time.

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 TradingOgre 
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One of the best lessons you can ever learn as a trader is knowing when you are not in the right frame of mind to take trades. Realizing that I have missed out on 100% of a 164+++++ point move with no valid reason is pathetic in my mind. That may sound like I am being harsh on myself but sometimes you just got to say it like it is. I spend a ton of time on the weekends and in the evenings backtesting and running the simulator. There is no valid reason why I shouldn't be taking 90% or more of these trades.

Even on the 1000 tick chart there were 4 very distinct clear trading opportunities.



I mean seriously, there are no other ways that are more clear than those in the picture above.

Sigh..... Enough whining.....

Ok, got it off my chest. I am off of my soapbox. Taking a few minute break then we will look for what happens after lunch.

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 TradingOgre 
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Going to call it here. Too late in the day to try anything. Big goose egg for today.





Got some homework to do this weekend. Need to analyze the charts from the last few weeks. Need to calculate some statistics to drive it into this thick skull of mine how reliable the trading system really is over the long haul.

I think my trading skills related to Futures have come a long way in the last few weeks. Learned a good bit about myself and what I need to do to reach the goals I have set for the next few months. Those goals are still very achievable but the longer I wait the tougher they will be to reach.

Other than early in the morning, I need to stay off of the lower time frames. Looking at the 500 and 1000 tick charts for the last few days makes me think the holy grail for day trading exists on those charts. Just need to be sure the stop size isn't so big that a bad trade drains the account.

Thanks for all of the support, comments and help this week. It is really nice to finally be a part of a forum filled with people with the right mindset.

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 ollie 
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You had a great week finishing with a positive $650 dollars. How many people do you know who make that much money working from home?


It's our job as traders to add equity to our account everyday by objectively analyzing information in real time, minimizing risk and drawdown and doing it in an efficient way as possible.

You did your job this week, AWSOME JOB!!!

Mike

Keep things as simple as possible, but no simplier. Albert Einstein

If you can't explain it to an eight year old it's to complicated
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 TradingOgre 
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Ran a trade performance report for the last two weeks. Not to jinx it or anything but I am on a decent win streak. 22 consecutive trades all profitable.

This report takes out commissions so the numbers are the real numbers added to the account.


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 MiniP 
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Columbus OHIO
 
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One of the best lessons you can ever learn as a trader is knowing when you are not in the right frame of mind to take trades. Realizing that I have missed out on 100% of a 164+++++ point move with no valid reason is pathetic in my mind. That may sound like I am being harsh on myself but sometimes you just got to say it like it is. I spend a ton of time on the weekends and in the evenings backtesting and running the simulator. There is no valid reason why I shouldn't be taking 90% or more of these trades.

Even on the 1000 tick chart there were 4 very distinct clear trading opportunities.



I mean seriously, there are no other ways that are more clear than those in the picture above.

Sigh..... Enough whining.....

Ok, got it off my chest. I am off of my soapbox. Taking a few minute break then we will look for what happens after lunch.

At least you didn't end up taking multiple longs like I did lol.... no idea where the bull bias came from... guess it was one of those days ha.

-P

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 Blue Eagle 
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MiniP View Post
At least you didn't end up taking multiple longs like I did lol.... no idea where the bull bias came from... guess it was one of those days ha.

-P

Not trying to be a dick but getting done with that catching a knife thing is one of my happiest accomplishments in my trading. I would recommend a chart that is very clear about trend direction... and never go against what it's saying. My only sadness on NQ today was that i got out too early... looking back at my chart end of day price was a mile lower than the 20MA I have on it and I never needed to get out till it crossed that area with mojo...which was the end of the move. 2 1/2 times lower than my target.
I found the "Crude Dude's" thread had some interesting ideas around this... and he is on NQ for most of the thread despite the title.
Craig

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 MiniP 
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Blue Eagle View Post
Not trying to be a dick but getting done with that catching a knife thing is one of my happiest accomplishments in my trading. I would recommend a chart that is very clear about trend direction... and never go against what it's saying. My only sadness on NQ today was that i got out too early... looking back at my chart end of day price was a mile lower than the 20MA I have on it and I never needed to get out till it crossed that area with mojo...which was the end of the move. 2 1/2 times lower than my target.
I found the "Crude Dude's" thread had some interesting ideas around this... and he is on NQ for most of the thread despite the title.
Craig

I wouldn't call what I was "seeing" as catching knives I just had a very bullish bias for some reason all the entries we from really weak HL or ema breaks.. which is a valid signal but should of been skipped due to the massive down trend.

I never try to buy bottoms/springs even when there is a valid level. Cause I always fckkk it up ha

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"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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 TradingOgre 
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Next week is loaded up with news events. Interest rates, NFP, etc. Will need to pay close attention near the news announcement times.

Should be an interesting week. Lots of stuff to shake up the markets.



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