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Your not printing anything out....your going to look at the chart on your computer screen. Load 90 days of data which you can do easily in Ninja and circle your trades that you would have taken based on your method. There is no shortcut and it is hard, boring tedious work.
Interestingly enough, Brooks suggests the route of increasing the volume,
"Once you are consistently netting a couple points every day in the Em*ini or 50 cents or a dollar in AAP L or some other major stock, you should focus on increasing your volume rather than adding lots of new setups. These are the very best setups, and if you trade 25 Emini contracts and net just two points a day, you will make $500,000 a year. If you trade 100 contracts and net four points, you will make $5 million a year. Many stocks like AAP L, GS, RIMM, and SKF can handle 3,000 or more shares without signifi cant slippage most of the time. If you average 50 cents a day on 3,000
shares of just one stock, that is about $300,000 a year."
And,
"39. Work on increasing your position size rather than on the number of trades or the variety of setups that you use. You only need to make one point in the Eminis a day to do well (100 contracts at 1 point a day is seven fi gures a year). "
that is true but at this point you don't even know if odds are in your favor with your strategy in that market.
I still frequently trade just one contract even knowing odds are in my favor. simple math says if I use an All in all out method and triple my size, my bank account will triple in size. Great on paper, not always practical or healthy on the psyche in real life.
Oh, I am excited about the work of going over the charts. The question is how to get them. NT lets me go as far as June 17. How do I make it show earlier dates? ES currently trades through the 09-18. When I go to ES 06-18, it only shows that one day.
Have you heard of Adam H. Grimes' free course? I did the original course and felt it was a good "no BS" tutorial on learning the market, learning how to statistically evaluate your edge using a spreadsheet & manually back testing, which @Babool is referring to. https://adamhgrimes.com/taas/
I guess it's good that we can discuss the odds here? I am to find a simple explanation of how to determine an appropriate win% and r/r. Brooks method is simple, that's why I am using it but I am always open to better suggestions.
Forgot to include what I meant by "good success ratio" - I had four successful trades versus one stop-loss.
The course has not moved to https://www.marketlifetrading.com/. They have different tracks. Can you please go there and look which of their tracks contains that course? I would like to make sure before I consider investing in them.
When I put "ES##-##" (without the quotes) in NT, it gives me a black screen.
it is good yes and I'm not trying to be an ass. I'm giving it to you straight.
4 wins, 1 loss (very small sample size)
80% win 20% loss
Now add up your total $ winning trades and your total $ in losing trades
Then find the average of winning $ and losing $.
(winning $ / 4) / (losing $ / 1)
that's your Risk/Reward.
take your R/R and multiple is by your winning % (.80).
Take that # and subtract your losing % from it (.20).
that's your expectancy.
also, be careful not to overtrade. I mean if your system calls for an entry and you know your odds/expectancy then pull the trigger. however, if you're not really sure then I would work on figuring that out first.
I've made 30 trades in ES over the past 6 months or a trade about every 3 days with 69% win 3:1 r/r, 2.5 expectancy.
