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So after seeing some trading journals on here I decided it'd be a good idea to start my own. Some info about me:
- Been trading on my own since June 2014, and was watching markets overnight before work since the summer of 2013.
- Started trading ES, but switched to ZB towards the end of 2015.
- I've encountered some minor success, but like most, my experience has primarily been marked by struggle and failure.
- What I still do not know about this business could fill a warehouse, so I'm eager to learn and improve.
- This is the best job I've ever had. My hope is to trade for a living for the rest of my life.
I've tried lots of different things in my approach to the market, but I have the most confidence I've had in my current approach, which involves doing research to identify differential probabilities of discrete outcomes occuring in the market, and trading in an attempt to exploit them.
I'm currently collecting data and prose-style descriptions on a sample of my trades, so my thought is to post that information here. My hope is that posting here will help keep me consistent in my info collection about my trading, and the interaction with all of you will help me to refine ideas and to learn things about what I'm doing to improve it. Thanks for reading!
EntryNotes: Market opened 2t from the top of the ON range, I wanted to see if it sold off then look for the entry, but if it went straight up, I'd bid to enter. The latter took place.
ExitNotes: Saw the market stall out a bit after I got filled, and I saw lots of volume at the +1 tick level, so I opted for an early exit at that point, fearing a reversal; exited at the offer with a limit order
GeneralNotes: This one was quick. I was hoping to see relatively little resistance to an upward move, but since that didn't happen, I tried to get out at the offer while I could, and I did.
EntryNotes: Got in at the bid looking for a move higher, bid down 1t, then chased up one and was filled
ExitNotes: Took quick exit because I saw lots of volume on both sides at my entry point, so I scratched
GeneralNotes: I have a mental stop of -2t, and this market didn't ever go against me, but I thought saw danger so I got out. The market immediately made a 3t move higher.
EntryNotes: Chased this one and got filled at the offer
ExitNotes: Market almost immediately moved against me to -2t, so I bid -1 and got filled
GeneralNotes: I chased the market and was forced out on a correcting move. I think I could've stood to be much less aggressive and picked a better entry price.
Overall today was sort of a mixed bag. It was great to see that my research put me on the right side of the market with all 3 trades today. However, my poor management of the trades caused poor performance, despite being generally correct in my trade ideas. I was watching the action on the DOM and a 1t range chart, which I like because I get a close up view of the action, however it seems like all that did today was psyche me out and cause me to leave trades early. I use a -4t hard stop, with a -2t "mental" stop where I try to exit long trades at the offer and shorts at the bid. I've been having a rough streak lately, so perhaps that's part of the reason for my lack of nerve today.
EntryNotes: I knew I wanted to be a little more aggressive on the entry here, but I didn't want to just jump in. I saw the market found support near the open, so I bid 1t above it and was filled
ExitNotes: Exited at my profit target at the ON high. Market touched the level, retraced 3t, then came back to fill me
GeneralNotes: I was excited to see a prompt move to my profit target, but then disheartened to see it pull back. I moved my “mental” stop to my entry price which was a good idea. Patience paid off here though, with the 2nd move up taking out my profit order
EntryNotes: Looked to see if prices moved lower at 930, saw weak volume below the entry, so I bid when the market flipped up and was filled.
ExitNotes: I took 1t of heat while in the position, and decided that if it couldn't break the recent high and made a new low, I'd look to exit. That's what happened, so I offered at the -1t level and was filled
GeneralNotes: I felt I managed this trade well, and that I took the loss when it made sense, based on the lack of price progression.
EntryNotes: Tried to enter short at the offer on a slight run up, but ended up hitting the bid instead
ExitNotes: Market reversed and hit my mental stop, so I bid for a scratch, the market proceeded higher, so I bid for -1t exit, which was filled
GeneralNotes: The late-morning trades are a bit more unpredictable, in my opinion. I was able to not enter right away but I waited for a better price, which I got, which protected me from a larger loss.
Today was a good day. I was able to liberalize my trade management regime a bit, and I think not looking at the 1 tick range chart was helpful as it helped keep me calm and focused on my expectations and where my mental stops were. It's important for me to remember that the market can do anything after I enter, but that the goal is to manage the trade in an effective way. Also I believe that the majority of my profits will come from a minority of my trades (the 80/20 rule), and we saw some evidence of that today. Only hit 1 out of 3 trades, but still had profits to show for it.
1. TimeIn = 08:33 TimeOut = 08:34 Position = Short Profit = -2 MAE = 2 MFE = 1
EntryNotes: Wanted the market to pull back and then enter on the 2nd entry, this happened, and I had to chase 1t beyond my target entry price and entered at the offer
ExitNotes: The market immediately stalled upon my entry, then retraced quickly on low volume. Fearing a full stop loss, I bid at the -2 level and was filled
GeneralNotes: This time I didn't have any real highs to lean against, all I had was my mental stop. I could've waited for things to play out more and that would've given me more information, but I would've let myself open to a full 4t loss. Tough trade.
2. TimeIn = 09:01 TimeOut = 09:09 Position = Short Profit = 1 MAE = 0 MFE = 3
EntryNotes: Market made a good move consistent with my premise upon a consumer confidence report, but I still found a place to get filled at the offer leaning on recent highs
ExitNotes: The market was non-committal, moving to the lows then to the recent highs, not reaching my target order. On a pullback to my entry price I bid at the +1t level and was filled
GeneralNotes: After my first trade, my overall premise for the trade was still intact, so I took another shot at it
3. TimeIn = 09:44 TimeOut = 09:48 Position = Short Profit = -3 MAE = 3 MFE = 1
EntryNotes: Backed off the market and rested an order a few ticks higher to go short, was filled and market stalled at my fill price
ExitNotes: Market attempted to go lower a couple times, then caught a bid higher. I covered my trade at the bid at -3t, fearing a hit to my stop loss at -4t
GeneralNotes: I normally feel weird about resting limit orders but I knew my premise and I knew that I wanted the trade, it was just a matter of where. Can't help what happens after the entry, though.
This was a tough day. Aside from my first trade, I'm pretty happy with how I made my decisions and how I did, given what the market offered up to me. I was just looking the wrong direction today, and as a result I hit my daily loss limit. These days will happen; we'll see what happens tomorrow.
1. TimeIn = 08:40 TimeOut = 08:41 Position = Long Result = -1 MAE = 2 MFE = 0
EntryNotes: Waited to take a 2nd entry after a big pullback short, was filled at the bid 1t off the new highs
ExitNotes: I had been looking at some support 1t behind my entry hoping for a low risk entry, knowing I'd look to exit if the market went below that, it did fairly quickly so I offered at -1t from my entry and was filled
GeneralNotes: This was a trade in the right direction, but at the wrong time. I'm interested in finding a better way of getting more exact timing in my entries
2. TimeIn = 09:32 TimeOut = 09:47 Position = Long Result = -3 MAE = 3 MFE = 6
EntryNotes: Looked for some local lows to form to get long, got in with a great fill at the bid
ExitNotes: The market rallied to within 1t of my target, I held out, but then the market made a drastic correction, during which I was hoping for another bounce higher that never came, and I saw weakness at the -3 level so I offered it and got filled
GeneralNotes: Disappointing. My target was at +7 and prices came to within 1t of that, and I held out, thinking that if it pulled back it'd offer me a chance to take some partial profits. It just went straight down, so I took a big loser on an easy winner
3. TimeIn = 10:02 TimeOut = 10:06 Position = Short Result = -2 MAE = 3 MFE = 1
EntryNotes: Found local resistance, was able to offer and get filled on a break lower
ExitNotes: Market threatened my -4t stop after weakly testing lower, so I bid for a -2t exit and was filled
GeneralNotes: Not much to say about this one. The -4 level was eventually hit without reattempting new lows, so the -2t exit was a good choice.
Today and yesterday I was using price action to manage my expectations of the trade and to manage my risk a bit. I'm not sure I like the technique, as it does not seem to consistently match up with the quality of my trades. Like today, i took an early exit on what was a good trade, and I took a winner and turned it into a loser trying to use local highs and lows. Perhaps a different technique might be better.
1. TimeIn = 08:34 TimeOut = 08:39 Position = Long Result = 3 MAE = 2 MFE = 4
EntryNotes: Market pulled back soon after the open, so I let it come down a bit then found a good spot to get long ExitNotes: Market waited near my entry a bit then it took off after testing lower and touched my profit target but then looked weak. I took profits at the offer at +3
GeneralNotes: Here I did some analysis on pullbacks and was presented an opportunity to get long with reasonable risk
2. TimeIn = 10:06 TimeOut = 10:14 Position = Short Result = -4 MAE = 4 MFE = 2
EntryNotes: Market struggled to move higher so I faded the move and entered at the offer
ExitNotes: Market tried to go lower twice, but then it rallied higher quickly to my stop order
GeneralNotes: Kinda crazy. The market made a much bigger move against me than I expected, then it made a huge move lower after I was stopped out. I don't think this happens too often.
I'm doing some research right now into pullbacks, hoping I can take less heat after my entries and part of it is having a bit more of a loose stop. We'll see how it goes in the days ahead.
1. TimeIn = 08:30 TimeOut = 10:45 Position = Short Result = 4 MFE = 8 MAE = 1
EntryNotes: I wanted to get short off the open, but I wanted to watch the DOM to find a decent entry. Saw an opportunity to enter at the offer after the market tested higher so I placed the order and was filled
ExitNotes: Saw that the market had a lot of difficulty proceeding lower, and saw lots of volume accumulate at the 143-18 level, so I took an exit there.
GeneralNotes: On this trade, I wanted to make my life as simple as I could. I risked 4t and never moved my stop, hoping that should the market confirm my idea prices would drift lower. I was confirmed in my idea, but the market eventually gave up trying to head lower and the longs appeared to gain control. I knew 18 would be a fair exit price based on volume, so as 11am approached I decided to get out.
Good first day trying to use a looser stop and giving things all the time possible to play out. We'll see how things come together this week.
1. TimeIn = 08:36 TimeOut = 09:02 Position = Short Profit = -4 MAE = 4 MFE = 2
EntryNotes: I had a hunch the market was going to confirm my hypothesis of moving lower, but I was indecisive and ended up selling after a 5t move lower that I could've entered at a better price
ExitNotes: Prices tried to move lower, but they went sideways and after a prolonged period of inaction I was stopped out
GeneralNotes: I was indecisive on my entry here. I'm still getting the hang of trying to read orderflow and the dom and I saw an opportunity for a better entry and I passed it up. I would've benefited from being more decisive here
1. TimeIn = 08:30 TimeOut = 08:48 Position = Long Profit = 5 MAE = 0 MFE = 7
EntryNotes: Did research which suggested entry at the open was a good call here. Market took a little to fill my limit order and then it couldn't trade below my entry
ExitNotes: The market shot higher after I was filled, and then a ton of size came in and prices went sideways. I looked to exit in the new volume area, which worked
GeneralNotes: I initially wanted to hold this trade for a larger move higher, but seeing the volume in the ZB and watching the ES start to rally, I thought it best to exit at 5t. Had I been doing better recently I may have held out for more.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but holding til 11 or so would've been the right move here. That said, my recent mistakes in my trading have limited my appetite to take that sort of risk. I imagine that as I get better and more consistent, then I'll be able to take those multi-leg moves for bigger profits. I've noticed how I trade evolves with my changing performance; the better I do, the more inclined I am to let things play out, the worse I do, the more I try to just make something on each trade. I'm unsure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.
