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Last year I have started a volatility pattern DAX day trading journal in FuturesIO. At that time I was using a mix of harmonic pattern, volume profile and order flow to scalp the DAX. I was doing quite OK with my win rate until the market changed in late June to early July.
As you might have noticed, the Harmonic pattern trading is essentially a mean reversion, or counter trend, trading method. When the market is trading stably within a band, it works quite nicely for DAX. I was able to pick the tops and bottoms to the tick (literally to the tick) by using the harmonic patterns. But after the DAX started a long liquidate break, it runs hundreds of points without even a rotation to the other direction. I had several days of bad losses and come to the realization that there is a major component missing in my trading method, which is a dynamic daily directional bias. In the second half of last year, I have started playing with all kind of VWAP and MA of various types to get on a grip with the directional bias.
The break through finally came when I started to follow a mentor on the Market Profile. In fact, I have looked at the market profile before, but never found it to be useful for my trading, hence I have just put it aside. That mentor was able to show me why the market profile works and what are the levels you should watch for in a profile. And more importantly, how to trade around those MP levels.
With an upgraded directional bias, now I am a much more confident trader and having a much better clarity over the market. So much so that I would like to share with you who are also interested in the market profile's take on the DAX, sometimes CAC as well.
Yesterday's value high at 11941.5 has provided strong support to the market after the cash session open (see Figure 1 attached).
From the weekly perspective, the weekly TPO has a bullish bias with a buying tail. Since we have rejected the price from going below the weekly TPO sitting at 11948, it has opened doors to an advance towards the weekly TPO hole between 12125 and 12160 some time next week.
Recently there is one type of trade that is on fire.
The value area rejection for the European indices.
Both Cac and Dax has responded to yesterday's cash session value area low with a decent sized rotation. You can pretty much get one or two of this type of trades every day.
The value area rejection works nicely for European indices because the Europeans tend to trade in balance for the London session and then dragged by the US counterpart or Trump during NY evening session leaving a whole bunch of trapped cash equity holders. When price trades into the value zone, the weak hands would seek to cover hence creating this response.
This is not the type of trade for you to take a home run winner. I am looking for a 10 - 20 points scale off and a runner behind. The advantage of this trade is that the success rate is very high and you don't need a wide stop for that. For cac even a 5 points stop is more than enough. Hence the risk reward is very good.
Today the DAX has responded perfectly yet again from yesterday's value area high, 11941.5.
I would like to share a type of trade that is very typical to DAX.
After the DAX got a response from the prior day's value area high, which coincide with 78.6 fib of the whole morning advance. See where it trades up to? The 127.2 expansion of the prior advance.
DAX loves to hit and run from the 127.2 fib expansion.
Hope you like it. I think you can see plenty of this type of price action in DAX.
NQ has poked its head above yesterday's value area and I have initiated a short trade from 6535.
The value area high rejection would work because yesterday has a balanced profile and the whole globex session has traded within that value area giving more power to the magnetic attraction of the value center.
Yesterday was a balanced day for NQ. Luckily there is no Trump news for the whole afternoon.
NQ has been consolidating below Monday's value area. If NQ was able to open (9:30AM EST) above yesterday's value area, we would be looking for it to trade higher fixing the holes in Tuesday's profile.
The first obstacle is still Tuesday value area low at 6580 and then Tuesday's value area low at 6650.
The profile is fixed if it trades back to 6720. Seems a high toll for NQ these days.
On the down side, 6496, yesterday's VPOC should be a strong support.
Out of the open, it auctioned straight down running over all the technical levels to correct the overnight inventory which is 100% long.
After the overnight longs are stopped out, it has started advances leaving the weak longs behind.
In contrast, the ES has been much better behaving that it has tested yesterday's POC and turned around to the upside.
Before moving higher, it has retested the level which gives us a low risk entry.
Today's trading has re-emphasized the fact that don't trade the open in NQ. Watch the ES, which is much more liquid so that this type of vicious manipulation has less chance from happening.
NQ had a bullish break out and a thin, trending profile on last Friday.
As we are speaking now, the NQ is still trading within prior day's value. It is likely we are going to open within the value, hence the primal scenario is to have an open auction day to build in some value between 6600 and 6570 area.
If it were to break out to the high, we could expect some reaction in the TPO hole between 6700 and 6720 at the first touch.
It is still possible for the market to turn all-out bullish, but there are tons of trapped longs at 6900 and 7050 level. NQ would have to clear those level out before it can turn into a raging bull again.
In the meantime, i would be viewing all bounces with a healthy dose of suspicion until it is able to retake 7050 level.
A beautiful break out pullback trade in YM out of the open.
Same setup also appeared in NQ. But it pulled back the deepest in the YM. That is why I have taken trades from there as it is cheaper there.
