Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
The seller stepped in at the fib retracement of the down leg, but failed to sent price towards the target zone.
This is a failure in follow through, which would result the price revert back to the initiation point of the down move at 10570. Since the cash initial balance high is very close to that level, the failure swing is likely to take that one out as well.
The pre-market high at 10600 is a initiation point of a strong bear, which would be held as firm resistance during the session. This is our bull bear line for the day.
ES had a bull flag formation into yesterday's session close after a big bounce with good excess from the 2445 low.
Given that formation we have to factor in a scenario that we would have an oversold bounce day in today's NY session.
If ES would indeed become bullish today, the reasonable targets are firstly the 2500 mark, and then 2510 where a big double top is. I am going to short into the 2515 level assuming that we are likely to have a rotation to the down side after the stop run. If it is really bullish, it might be able to run into 2535 the FOMC range low, which I would take a short on the exhaustion of the move.
Russell shows a similar level of bullishness that it is possible to do some fill-in into the volume vacuum between 1355 and 1375.
Just back from my holiday in China. I am trying to get back in the groove with the market.
The first thing I have noticed is that it is quite difficult for me to focus. My thoughts seem to be jumping from one thing to another.
The bounce in ES continues. It is a natural reaction to a deep run to the down side after the neckline break.
It has developed into a two legged corrective structure to the upside. No matter how bullish it looks in near term, it still can't deny the fact that it is merely a ripple below the broken top formation. Now i am looking at it for a retest into the 2620 area where the broken neckline is. In fact, the overhead supply has already started to get heavy from the 2580 level. The totality of the 40 points area is a heavy and heavy resistance.
Let us see how ES copes with this supply area.
The message can't be cleared in a daily bar with quarterly volume profile.
The value area low of fourth quality volume profile stands at 2632, which would be a formidable bar for ES to cross.
It is saying that the closer to 2632, the better the risk reward for the shorts.
European equities had a good run since last Friday when it has broken out of a two weeks (well, shortened weeks to be more precisely) long consolidation range. Leaving out the selling-climax out, the range starts from 4605 to 4700. A break of this range is going to put the symmetric swing target on cards. The first symmetry target (100% extension) has been achieved yesterday and a pullback was observed after the target fulfillment. This is a sign of strong bulls taking profit.
In the pre-market, Cac has gapped above yesterday's high and runs into 4820 key liquidity pool. It is possible that the gap up is a merely a false break. If Cac is able to stand firm above 4820 level, then it has opened doors to to challenge 4860 liquidity pool and potentially 4900 big target (200% extension) which coincides with a major prior support.
To be honest, I have no idea how far this bounce can go, but I know without a shred of doubt that the European market is still firmly in the bear market territory and the bounce we have witnessed is a natural reaction after the first downside target of the big crown topping formation has been achieved. What we should do is to anticipate the second leg to the down side targeting 200% extension of the crown formation. A possible strategy is to build shorts on the way up while controlling your size and inventory so that even if it rips beyond 4900 level, you would still be OK with that.
Yesterday was a low confidence day in ES that it has pulled back to the prior day's POC and finally found some support.
Moreover, the volume was low and up moves contains a lot of fake algo generated orders to pop up the buying.
The sign of weakness does not equal to an immediate turn around. Because there is simply no liquidity and volume for the market maker to dump their long inventory built along the way up. Now all eyes are on the setup of buying climax with a huge volume, probably on the back of some good news or rumor, and then spike and tank.
In the meantime, I am not that active in my day trading strategy simply because there is very few two way auction and nice intraday swings that I am able to trade off of. Therefore I am building some small swing short position on the way up and sit passively waiting for the bull run to run out of buyer and run into long liquidation mode.
1. DAX has rolled over from the rising wedge formation. The implication is bearish, and we might finally see the downside rotation today.
2. Yesterday was a balance at the high, which has turned out to be part of the topping process. Today it has had a bearish gap open below yesterday's trading range. Hence yesterday's VAL is going to act as resistance today. If it tests the 4815 level, then it is a sell. Watch the TICK reading also dropped below zero for the first time since NFP last Friday. This also supports our bearish rotation thesis today.
Russell opens below yesterday's value for the first time since many days.
The bulls are putting under pressure now. Are they going to defend and drag the price back above the water by trading through the value area or we are going to see a long liquidation day today?
I think the odds for a bearish roll over is pretty high today.
