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Daily TPO homework for DAX and NQ


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Daily TPO homework for DAX and NQ

  #461 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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1. I have been to the garage to change winter tires hence missed the move this morning.
It seems that we had a big head fake above 24700 resistance in Dow. By lunch time, the rising neckline has been broken, which creates overhead supply. Now the pressure is on the down side and I am looking at the 24200 as the down side target.


2. The formation might be slightly different in DAX, but the overall structure is similar to that of Dow -- a big head fake and broken neckline. The failed inverse head shoulders pattern at the low has been achieved with merely 1.5 point difference during the session, and the DAX has turned bearish afterwards, which is saying that the short squeezing rally is over. With the broken rising neckline of a small head shoulders pattern at the high, I am seeing strong overhead supply around 11330 level. This is going to be the bull and bear line in the sand for the coming NY session.

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  #462 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
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3. Russell has failed at the 1510 resistance yesterday, and it has been trading in a tiny range every since. I am looking for it to break out in either direction as a signal of bullish or bearish leadership.




shrekchenbin View Post
1. I have been to the garage to change winter tires hence missed the move this morning.
It seems that we had a big head fake above 24700 resistance in Dow. By lunch time, the rising neckline has been broken, which creates overhead supply. Now the pressure is on the down side and I am looking at the 24200 as the down side


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  #463 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274


I am doing some market prep the night before as I was never able to finish writing the prep before the cash open.
On the one hand, I have to send my kids to school every morning around 8:00AM which is such a pain in the ass time wise. And on the other hand, my writing is too slow that I tend to chew on words multiple time before putting them down in the text. Therefore I am shifting some of the prep work to the night before.

The part can be shifted to night before is the weekly bias by looking at the swings n in the context of weekly volume profile.

1. Cac has tested the VAH of last week's volume profile @4950 and got a rejection there. Hence the base case (or primary hypo) for me is that the weekly low is in place, and price is likely to drive high in the rest of the week. Based on the symmetry principle, the price could test as high as 5030 later this week.


2. DAX has held the band of old resistance now support around 11250 level. The base case here is the same as that of CAC that the weekly low is in place and we are like to see today's high print being traded through tomorrow. But bear in mind that the longer term structure in DAX remains bearish so long as it is kept below 12000 level, which is the neckline of a big head shoulders pattern on the weekly chart.

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  #464 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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1. This morning CAC had a bullish open above yesterday's value but inside yesterday's range. Hence two scenarios are most likely to play out.
a) retest the prior day's VAH at 4978 and get a reaction there. The rest of the day probing higher and build value non-overlapping to the high. In this case, gap and go trading rule is going to apply.
b) failure to get a reaction and falls into yesterday's value. Value area trading rule applies, which is saying that the whole value area is likely to be traded through.

Notice the last two day's overlapping lower value. This is a bull flag like formation. Once its standing firmly above yesterday's value, it is going to turn into a successful break out of a bull flag formation.



2. Similar structure in DAX that it is opening above value but inside the range. The VAH stands at 11345 which is very close to the pre-market range and it is very likely to get tested. If the test fails, and the price falls into the prior day's value area, then value area trading rule applies. Otherwise, gap trading rule takes charge.

From the TPO chart, we can see that both the Monday high and low are run out, which has resulted in an engulfing type of day. In this type of day, the market maker was in control. It is meant to run stops and clean books. The market maker is like to show their real hands in today's session.



shrekchenbin View Post
I am doing some market prep the night before as I was never able to finish writing the prep before the cash open.
On the one hand, I have to send my kids to school every morning around 8:00AM which is such a pain in the ass time wise. And on the other hand, my writing is too slow that I tend to chew on words multiple time before putting them down in the text. Therefore I am shifting some of the prep work to the night before.

The part can be shifted to night before is the weekly bias by looking at the swings n in the context of weekly volume profile.


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  #465 (permalink)
 rdaytrader 
Netherlands
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TWS & SierraChart
Broker: InteractiveBrokers & Sierra
Trading: DAX & Bund
Posts: 275 since Jun 2013
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Hi Bin,

I can relate to your situation with your kids. I have kids too. I sometimes even trade while taking care of them. But you gotta decide if it's worthwhile.

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  #466 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
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A tug of war broke out at the prior day's VAH @4978.
A false break down and back above warrants a spring entry setup.



shrekchenbin View Post
1. This morning CAC had a bullish open above yesterday's value but inside yesterday's range. Hence two scenarios are most likely to play out.
a) retest the prior day's VAH at 4978 and get a reaction there. The rest of the day probing higher and build value non-overlapping to the high. In this case, gap and go trading rule is going to apply.
b) failure to get a reaction and falls into yesterday's value. Value area trading rule applies, which is saying that the whole value area is likely to be traded through.


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  #467 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
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Thank you for your concern.
I do love my kids. Just the many scheduling work would have to be carried out in order to ensure that I could balance the trading work load and child responsibility.
To be honest, Trading is really time consuming. It consume much more time than a corporate job. That is why i was struggling to cope the child caring responsibility and trading from time to time.


rdaytrader View Post
Hi Bin,

I can relate to your situation with your kids. I have kids too. I sometimes even trade while taking care of them. But you gotta decide if it's worthwhile.


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  #468 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

DAX has achieved its target defined by the value area trading rule -- the whole value area has been traded through.



shrekchenbin View Post
1. This morning CAC had a bullish open above yesterday's value but inside yesterday's range. Hence two scenarios are most likely to play out.


2. Similar structure in DAX that it is opening above value but inside the range. The VAH stands at 11345 which is very close to the pre-market range and it is very likely to get tested. If the test fails, and the price falls into the prior day's value area, then value area trading rule applies. Otherwise, gap trading rule takes charge.

From the TPO chart, we can see that both the Monday high and low are run out, which has resulted in an engulfing type of day. In this type of day, the market maker was in control. It is meant to run stops and clean books. The market maker is like to show their real hands in today's session.


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  #469 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274

1. Russell has lagged behind the big three indices. It might be due to the fact that Russell was actually ahead of the rest last week. Now I am seeing the possibility of this overlapping down price action to turn into a bull flag formation.


2. The NQ has successfully broken out of a bulk of trapped volume around 6700 area. This has clear a way towards the 6800 level, the VAL of two weeks ago. It also coincides with the 100% extension of the W bottom formation at the low. The short covering rally of those weak bears trapped in the W formation is going to pop price to as high as 6950.

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  #470 (permalink)
 shrekchenbin 
UTRECHT/The Netherlands
 
Posts: 644 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 8
Thanks Received: 274


A failed breakout in Russell. it has instead turned around to clear the stops below this double bottom weak structure.
After the charts being repaired, it is ready to take another assault at the high again.




shrekchenbin View Post
1. Russell has lagged behind the big three indices. It might be due to the fact that Russell was actually ahead of the rest last week. Now I am seeing the possibility of this overlapping down price action to turn into


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