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Several days back in NL. Both my body and brain still struggle to cope with the working pace as an intraday trader. I could not focus properly to get the morning prep done before my brain gets distracted by some tiny external stimulus or some random thoughts.
This morning, I have put down an order at 61.8 fib retracement in ES at 2714. However, the order didn't get triggered before the NY open. That is why I have removed the order. Out of the open, the upside assault seemed to suffer some setback as there are too many floating supplies (watch the triple top developed at the open). The Market maker has turned around and make the third down leg to stop out the weak longs hitting the 61.8 to the tick. After that it just rips to the high leaving me only watching.
What I have learned from this trade? Have a deep understanding of the intention of the market then you won't feel afraid when holding your orders. You are afraid when you are not sure. You are not sure because you don't understand why it should move like this. You don't understand because you didn't put yourself in the shoes of the market maker or big operator. Once you reason with their positions, you would find that everything just makes sense.
I was too sloppy in writing my journals for the afternoon session.
Have to be more diligent on that.
The ES has been back at the support from last week.
If 2700 were to be broken, then a distribution range (a lower high) is confirmed in ES. The next support in line is 2680.
So far we are seeing some positive reaction from 2705.
I didn't trade in that accumulation range because I was taking care my daughter.
Otherwise that would be a great scalp long of 8 points.
Yesterday's b shape profile speaks the scenario of long liquidation.
This morning, the operator has tested below yesterday's low and immediately turned back above. It suggests the operator is doing a stop run and testing the supply before a bigger lift. This is a sign of strength to me.
The key level today is still 12990. If it is able to break above and build value above, then we should buy into all strong held bids.
Today is a perfect day of practicing what I have learned from Mike Bellafiore of SMB capital.
What a good trading is to identify a strong stock and build position when you see strong held bid. If the bids are rising higher, you add more to your position.
This morning, the DAX gapped down to take out the prior day's low and quickly reversed. From the tape, a big buyer showed up with a strong bid holding at 12925 when the price trades back into the range. By then I was just sit down and doing my morning prep work. So I didn't trade into the first held bid.
After the open, DAX was quickly on the bullish binge that levels are taken out one after another. For a while, the DAX was quite easy to trade. All you need is to trade the old resistance as the new support. Then the big buyer appeared again and again in the low of deep pullback legs. What I was doing was to add position into those rising strong bids. But after 10:00 AM, the order flow slows down and DAX started to trade in tight ranges. I have started to get impatient. After the first break of the rising trend line, I have closed all my longs. This was clearly a mistake as the strong buyer showed again, not at the trend line, but at the VPOC of the day at 12984. The buyer staged one last upthrust before the lunch time. I have missed that one completely.
After that last upthrust, the strong buyer left and the bearish rotation starts. Basically, the lesson I have learned today is that for each entry I have to think about two instances -- 1. the naive entry which is the way retail traders sees; 2. how the market maker and algos see the landscape. By looking at the naive entry, I could pretty much foresee that the market maker is going to run those orders before their real moves.
After all, today is not a bad day for me. But I still got so much to improve how I read the tape and manage my position.
Hi, welcome back.
Thanks for continuing to share on this thread your market analysis insights.
I suppose the questions I am asking here are perhaps too nive ... please be patient, ... please reply only if you happen to have some spare time
How can you tell it is just one! big buyer, with Jigsaw? with bookmap? or with any order flow visualizer? I understand you talk about market maker as if it was one single entity, but aren't sometimes mm one fighting one against the other, or is the "old Europe"'s DAX too small for such a circumstance?
what do you mean by "first held bid?
"the buyer left" and what is it going to do now with all the purchased assets? going to buy again later on at a lower price?
this is not too clear to me also
if it is possible, maybe by using larger charts you could embed some of your comments directly on the charts, that should make it easier to understand your points (at least for inexperienced people like me)
Thanks for your question. Those are great questions and we sure are going to have a fruitful discussion.
Let me answer you some time later this this evening as I am still writing my opening prep for the ES and dow.
Yesterday price found support at the support of 2705, a short covering rally ensued after the FOMC minutes.
This has confirmed the bullishness of this consolidation range. It is very likely going to be a bullish re-accumulation as a stepping stone to the upside stride.
By looking at the TPO chart, yesterday's has formed a well auctioned balance at the exact same location of last Friday's balance. This has confirmed the bulls' commitment to the long side.
As we are speaking, market has just opened above the prior day's value and ready to pose a bullish drive out of the open. The rest of the day should be a business of buying pullback.
Or even better, load up when you see strong bid holding on the tape as what was advocated by Mike Bellafiore from SMB capital.
What a frenzy of selling!
Trump tweets rattling the market again?!
ES has tested yesterday's VPOC to the tick and reverse. It has turned out to be a buying opportunity for someone with a steel ball to put down a limit order there.
The move was too sudden for me to put down proper order there.
Got to be more focused.
