NQ - Slowly figuring things out. Very slowly. - futures io
futures io futures trading



NQ - Slowly figuring things out. Very slowly.


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Binkius with 23 posts (31 thanks)
    2. looks_two WhatHappened with 6 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 teamtc247 with 1 posts (1 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Jigsaw Trading with 2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Binkius with 1.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 teamtc247 with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WhatHappened with 0.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 3,730 views
    2. thumb_up 37 thanks given
    3. group 11 followers
    1. forum 33 posts
    2. attach_file 82 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

NQ - Slowly figuring things out. Very slowly.

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Homework (evening of 1/30/18) in preparation for 1/31/18 trading day.

-Breakdown of accelerated channel lines.
-Looking for sideways trading until FOMC meeting concludes (news event).
-Looking to see if Volume Profile balances out.
-If balance forms, will look of large trending movement away from balance.









Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:

Journal Challenge February 2021 results (so far):
Competing for $1500 in prizes from Topstep
looks_oneSBtrader82 's Trading Journalby SBtrader82
(153 thanks from 29 posts)
looks_twoJust BEING a Trader: Letting Go!!by iqgod
(111 thanks from 32 posts)
looks_3Wisdom is Emptinessby Mtype
(68 thanks from 25 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(31 thanks from 16 posts)
looks_5Journal for peanuts1956by peanuts1956
(23 thanks from 13 posts)
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018


Nice post. The futures that are correlated have pretty solid down signals at this time. One being Palladium, which in the last few days has broken its 500->1100 channel.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018

I don't think it's really possible, mathematically speaking, for the market to keep rising at this point barring some major event. Does anyone have insight?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Webinar Host
Indianoplace, IN
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart
Broker: CQG
Trading: All Micros, especially the ones that move
 
Rrrracer's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,374 since Feb 2017
Thanks: 16,343 given, 8,961 received

LOL what's the old adage... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018

watch this
It's not really possible, mathematically speaking, for the market to keep falling at this point barring some major event.
solvent, it's having a healthy mind

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Davenport, IA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 5 given, 7 received


WhatHappened View Post
watch this
It's not really possible, mathematically speaking, for the market to keep falling at this point barring some major event.
solvent, it's having a healthy mind

Thought it was pretty clever, with closes up today. Time will tell whether you called a bottom here!

Pretty impressive you called a top on 31 Jan...

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018

Thanks. Short VXG8 at 22.25 right now.. Easiest play ever, reversing NQ swing

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018

Still some room to short Volatility at 20.18. NQ so predictable in these cycles!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received


Moved back to Taiwan. Homework for trading on 2/20/18.

Chart 1: Sunday over night, Monday RTH, Monday overnight. Price is just exploring the volume node without initiative buying to push out of volume profile distribution. Very balanced distribution has formed. Primed for an intiative move out of this area.

Chart 2: 20x3 NQ PnF chart. Shows triple bottom break back in early Feb. Possible double bottom break forming now. 18 contracts short (fantasy position) near triple bottom break (scaled in starting late January). Already scaled out of 11 contracts (+$81,000 realized sim-profit), holding tight for swing trade. Fantasy trading, mashing on the keyboard. Not real.

The two charts together lead me to believe that any move down will be worth following. Balanced profile from first chart with double-bottom breakout on second chart.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2018-02-19_Fio_01.png
Views:	90
Size:	74.2 KB
ID:	246994   Click image for larger version

Name:	2018-02-19_Fio_02.png
Views:	85
Size:	99.0 KB
ID:	246995  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Sim Trades: Still sitting on 18 contracts short from late January/early February.
Real Trades: Short NDX (via 2x-inverse QID).

PnF chart showing breakdown from a broadening pattern.
  • In this pic, pattern is 8 columns across. 9th column just printed while writing this. When price finally breaks out of this pattern, the move will be dramatic due to the amount of price action in spent in the pattern (number of columns).
  • Whether PnF or Volume Profile or Renko what these charts show is consolidation of buying/selling action which represents lots of potential energy - positions that will be stopped out and fuel a vertical movement out of the consolidation area.
  • I will try to add short in any pullback to the pattern. I should've shorted at the 'O' print at NQ'6740, but I actually fell asleep. Trading New York market living on Taiwan time zone is not good for my health. Indexes like to retrace, so I should get a chance today.


Traditional 15-min chart of NQ, RTH only.
  • Flag pattern/consolidation analogy. I'm expecting a large drop. I will add short on any retest of the price channel.


Volume Profile
  • Price has tested up and down around a fairly symmetrical distribution (micro composite of the rally off the recent swing low). Lots of potential energy being stored here in the balanced distribution. There will be a huge vertical move out of here.


INDU fills its gap on the 1-hr chart. SPX, NDX, TRAN, RUT all have filled gaps on the swing high. Nothing left to fill on the upside (except ATH gaps). Lower highs and lower lows. RSI, MACD, STO all rolling over on all 1-hr index charts.


I'm interpreting all of this as an impending large vertical move. I'm guessing the move will be down. I will add short on any pullback into the consolidation area. Stop is price printing a PnF 'X' above the previous high in this broadening pattern.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Atlanta, GA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Metals
 
Posts: 0 since Jan 2018

Nasdaq seems to be back in a nice groove after the recent swing, this is where it continues up.........

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

With volume profile showing a large, balanced distribution, there was bound to be a large vertical move. Unfortunately for me, I guessed that the move would be down, but instead, it was up.

I had meant to set my stop at the previous swing high, which would've only resulted in a 2.71% loss. I got so tired that I forgot to set the stop before going to sleep Friday afternoon. Price gapped up over the weekend and I finally got out with a 5.05% loss.


While looking at my charts over the weekend and finally getting a PnF setting that works well for the current NQ, there are two high pole continuation patterns on the 20x1 PnF chart. Price then entered a consolidation/broadening pattern. The high pole pattern broke out with a semi-catapult and then broke past the swing high. Both would have been valid exit points for my short position. Price is currently rising on weak buy signals from consecutive one-back patterns.

Some things bother me about the breakout.



Larger lot buyers are not following the breakout (top pic is Monday, lower pic is Friday and Monday).



Volume, compared to 40-day average, is miserable.

15-min index charts are now all overbought with bearish divergences.
1-hour index charts all showing clear breakouts to the upside

What I need to do it concentrate on a time-frame that is suitable for the 13 hour time difference between Taipei and New York. My PnF charting seems to match well with signals on the 1-hour charts. I also have to be more strict on stops. Right now, I'm playing with amounts small enough that the difference between a 2.71% and 5.05% stop is not significant. I need to develop good risk hygiene and habits. I have a bad history of staying in losing positions too long.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

I'm kicking myself in the ass for covering. Things I've learned:

1) Never listen to outside advice. I listened to someone else instead of following my own analysis. Poor volume internals (rising price on lower and lower aggressive buyer volume over two days) told me that the uptrend would likely fail.

2) Don't use arbitrary percentage stops. Use context. After failing to set a stop at a local swing high, I set an arbitrary 5% stop. Context (in this case, poor volume internals) said to give it a little more room to run. If I had let it run, I'd be back below the previous swing high now. Instead, I exited at the worst possible price point.

I've shorted throughout the day. When using PnF, I'm finding that it works well to short at the PnF signal and then short again at the rotation away from the PnF signal. The initial PnF signal is typically at a low, and then rotates back up. This ends up being some kind of cost averaging.

Use 3-box reversal and 1-box reversal charts together. The 3-box reversal gives a rough idea of the pattern and the 1-box reversal gives detail on entries.

1-box reversal chart.


Have to pick up daughter from school - will finish post later.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

...Continuation of previous post...

Overnight action has been bearish.
Prices rose on small buyers without big buyers. Setting up a good sized decline.
It took me a long time to figure this out: a big decline isn't stopped by big buying. It's stopped by big selling. Price only stops falling when every single seller has been exhausted. Only then will price rise.


ON action has been pretty strong, pushing back to the 2/9-2/28 microcomposite PoC (low perfectly hits 500-day HVN) and reverses. ON volume has been high - suggesting a trend day is very likely possible.




Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10am. If he doesn't kiss the market's ass, I'm expecting a very bad day for the market.
1) Extremely high volume overnight.
2) Leaving a balance area.
3) Every 1-hr index chart is extremely bearish.

Leaving balance area:


My plan today is to look for short swing trade entries on a pullback into the 15x1 PnF breakout zone around NQ'6892. Stop at previous swing high, NQ'7015.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

I'm 13 hours ahead of New York market time and it's really bad for my life. I think I'm going to have to switch over to something like EuroStoxx50 to get into a reasonable time zone. Or maybe just swing trade NQ and give up on daytrading the US indices.

So, because of the time differences, this post is more of a wrap up than looking forwards type of journal entry.

The 15x3 PnF chart shows a couple of things:
- Two targets depending on how I measure the topping pattern.
- The higher target is NQ'6465 which matches well with a long-term trendline and looks to be in the Fib retracement zone.
- The lower target is NQ' 5925 which matches well with the SP500 filling it's Sept. gap.
-The 15x3 PnF chart shows a breakout and retest of the 45-degree trendline established at the Feb. low. The uptrend is probably over, subject to more backing and filling.


15x1 Pnf chart gives more detail.
- What I'm finding out is that the patterns/indicators/etc. that speak to me are all basically doing the same thing: finding areas of consolidation and then playing the breakout/trend reversal from those areas.
- The 500-day HVN/balanced distribution is just a way of saying that there's been a huge amount of buyers and sellers here.
- The 15x1 PnF support line at nearly the same point is just another way of saying that a huge amount of buyers and sellers fought over this point.
- Where ever there has been a consolidation of buyers and sellers (volume) over a small area of time/price, it will show up in a charting pattern/indicator. A break out of these areas is usually a huge vertical move. It can be continuation or reversal.



Volume Profile
-At a large balanced volume distribution. Price is likely to back-and-fill here for a while before making a vertical move out.


The direction of the vertical move, I'm guessing, is likely to be down. The 1-hour index charts all rolled over and the daily charts are in the process of rolling over.

SPX


NDX


RUT


TRAN


NDX
NDX is bearish, but is laggin the other indexes. NDX hourly is very bearish.


The index charts have all rolled over hard on the hourly charts. The daily charts have started to roll over. There is lots and lots and lots of downside available given how high the indicators are.

One of the hardest things for me to grasp has been the nature of trends. Once a trend gets going, it just goes crazy and searches out maximum pain. Market Profile/Auction Theory probably describes it best. It's an auction that will go to the absolute extreme possilbe. It will go down until every single seller has sold.

On the intraday time frame, this happens pretty quickly. But I'm looking at the daily charts and they're rolling over. Maximum pain is NQ'5925.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

End of Week Update 3/25/18 - 3/2/18

15x3 PnF
- Price has retested back to several important technical landmarks.


15x1 PnF
- Price has made a very strong retracement, generating a 15x1 buy signal. Buy signals in a downtrend must have multiple confirmation (it could be jus a pullback). Price still hasn't broken initial descending trendline, So I'm holding short.
- This is probably a good place to add short, price is coming up to multiple PoC's.


30-min Volume Profile
- As I expected earlier, price is taking its sweet time testing up and down inside the large volume distribution. Lots of action occurred here in the past, leaving lots of people who still want to get in or out of positions. Until these buyers and sellers are exhausted, price will explore up and down this distribution.


Trend Day
It took me since Oct. to figure this out. I tried breadth indicators and other stuff, but the most accurate way I've found of predicting a trend day is looking at relative volume and the ratio between large/small players. What are the larger aggressive players doing? How much total relative volume is there? If there are lots of large players hopping in on high relative volume, prices are likely to trend. At 2:38 pm, there were more large aggressive buyers than small aggressive buyers!



This is just one of those things where I don't have enough screen real-estate to keep track of things. Market Profile has price bounce right off a single. I really need two 32" 4k monitors. Maybe if this trade works out, I can make enough to buy some more screen space. Monitors are 2x more expensive in Taiwan than the USA. For the price of (1) 32" 4k monitor here in Taiwan, I can buy (2) in the USA!


I continue to hold short. I probably should've added more short when price pushed against the PoC's, but I had already fallen asleep by then (the 13-hour time difference is killing me). I will look for an entry on Monday. I'm guessing for a move down.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

... Weekend Analysis Continued...

Part 1 - Alcoholics Anonymous

I've read a few of the journals on Futures.io and I think one of the important benefits is the soul searching necessary to identify what you're doing wrong and then improve.

Here are the results of my sim-trading since I switched from free-broker provided software to what I consider amateur level trading software. By amateur, I mean that I'm not using professional level software like X-Trader or Bloomberg. The costs of professional software and data are just too far beyond what I can afford for what is, right now, just a hobby.



Inside the period in question, I traded 46 consecutive trading days with each day ending green. Mostly trading just one NQ contract, and sometimes two. Scaling this up with the same hit-rate and expectancy means I can make a living off this. But it's sim-trading and sim-trading is easy compared to live-trading. So, when I'm finally thinking that I can go live -- I BLOW UP THE ACCOUNT.

I can point to excuses:
- Fatigue from the 13 hour time zone difference.
- Trading while emotionally exhausted (flying back and forth1/2-way around the world to take care of my father, whose Alzheimer's makes it impossible for my mom to handle him).
- Financial stress due to lost work time (wife cannot run her practice when I'm 1/2-way around the world).
- Time away from my wife and daughter.

All valid excuses, but not the root cause. I blew up the account because I didn't want to lose. I took a losing position and kept doubling down. Now, during the 46 consecutive trading days of winning, I prevented myself from doing this. Took my loss when the stop was hit. But maybe I was looking for some kind of emotional pick-me-up from trading instead of looking at it as professional gambling. So I kept doubling down. 75% of the time this works. 25% of the time, you blow up the account. I blew up the account.

At this point I have to address my problems.

The excuses are valid. I really need to trade an instrument that works with the 13-hour time zone difference. I will try sim-trading EuroStoxx50. Moving from a fast-moving, shallow-depth market like the NQ to something super-liquid and slow-moving like the FESX will require me learning new software (the biggest change I see happening is moving away from volume bars and Bookmap's heatmap and towards footprint and Jigsaw DOM).

Strangely, I'm not worried or dismayed. It's all just volume and price action and I was able to sim-trade 46 consecutive days without a losing day on the NQ. That has given me the confidence that I can do it on FESX. It's all fractal. Greed, fear, momentum and mean-reversion measured in volume and price over time.

What worries me is that monkey on my back. The need to be right. To not admit that I took a loser trade and try to salvage it. It's been a life-long trading pattern with my live swing-trading. A long series of wins because I guessed right, then a huge loss because I don't get out even when every possible sign says I'm wrong.

Trading is like nothing I've ever encountered. In a normal career, job, education you take pride in being right and doing right. In trading, there is no room for pride. It's just profit and loss. The emotional drivers that helped make my work and educational career successful DO NOT work in trading. If the project falls behind, you can rebudget, refinance, reallocate manpower. If you're falling behind on the job, put in more overtime. If you can't make the grade, study more, more, more. But trading is different. More effort, more time, more dedication does not change the market trend if I'm on the wrong side of the market.

It's not about being right. It's about profit and loss.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Weekend Analysis, Part 2.
6:30 am New York, EST.

Charts:
- Price continues to chop through the volume profile best defined by the microcomposite from the Feb. low.
- Overnight, Smaller lot buyers have been chasing price up. Larger lot buyser have been selling into the price rise.
- Overnight volume very high.
- PnF 15x3 upside breakout.
- PnF 15x1 still holding initial descending trendline.

Conclusions:
- I think we're getting a reflexive bounce on the European indexes (DAX has been beaten silly lately) and NQ is following Eurex.
- The bounce has been big enough to break the 15x3 PnF downtrend, but strangely enough, the more sensitive 15x1 chart has not broken.
- Overnight volume has been really high, with small players chasing price up and larger players selling into the rise. This is usually not a bullish sign. If high volume continues into the open, NQ is likely to trend.
- I think what is happening is that NQ is still auctioning up and down this HVN distribution. Price will run back and forth across the PoC until either sellers or buyers exhaust and then there will be a large vertical move.
- I hold short, will add short if I see a nice pattern on any chart or Bookmap. There are naked POC's from 2/28 and 3/1 at 6910 and 6861 respectively.






Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Dead cat bounce or resumption of uptrend?

Charts:
- Volume profile char is showing that price is still searching for direction through the distribution centered at NQ'6812. Price is exploring symmetrically up and down around this PoC. At resistance and more serious resistance above.
- PnF charts show bullish break up through descending trendlines. On the other hand, clear Head and Shoulders patterns are emerging.
- Bid/Ask Delta showing that small and large aggressive players were at odds for most of the day. Large players seemed to give up and flip long into the closing hour.
- Relative Volume started out very strong, then dropped to below average in the late afternoon. Possibly a short squeeze that ran out of shorts to feed the rise. Not much involvement once the shorts were burned out.

Conclusions:
- Could go either way.
- Clear H&S patterns would make this a dead cat bounce. Bearish.
- Volume not behind this move up. Bearish.
- Clear uptrend on PnF charts. Bullish.

My Guess:
- Dead cat bounce. Daily index charts show all indexes below 50-dma, RSI, MACD, STO all bearish. Daily trend is down.






Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Too much family stuff today. I just want to wrap up yesterday.




Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

I had to take some time off journal'ing to take care of my parents. I've managed to start sim-trading FESX. I have a real swing trade in NQ I will update, but my focus on intraday will be on sim-trading FESX.

I was worried about the switch from NQ to FESX, but I'm finding FESX easier to trade than NQ. I think what I'm finally able to see (very dimly) is price action. I've had to change my software a little bit, but it's been an easy transition. The time zone is especially easy for me compared to NQ.

I've introduced a new metric to my statistical record keeping: Doubling Down. Every time I double down, I record it as a trading mistake. I've traded FESX 7 days and only doubled down once. I resisted the temptation to double down twice and let my stops take me out. Letting a stop take me out is actually an emotioanl/developmental win even if it causes a statistical money loss.

Here is a screenshot that sums up my biggest problem, doubling down. I trade 1-2 contracts, 3-4 times per day. I'm looking to average about $150/day over a long period. My sim-trading style is yielding me this result (NQ and FESX) unless I double down. When I double down, I actually can pull it off probably 80%-90% of the time. But when I don't pull it off, I get the red square.

As seen above, I'm close to my goal of $150/day, but then wipe myself out -$43,300!!! Market goes up, I can trade it. Market goes down, I can trade it. But if I let my emotions take control. If I HAVE to be RIGHT, I make the red-square-of-death appear.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

I'm doing a more in-depth homework analysis because it's the weekend. Thanks in advance to those who go through it all.

Too Long, Didn't Read Summary in One Pic:
Overall trend is up (but overbought). Look to go long on retest into support at 3340 or 3325. Breakdown of 3325 is bearish.


The details:
Candlestick charts:
-Daily is a copy of the symmetrical triangle on INDU(DJIA) and NYA(NYSE) which isn't surprising since FESX is considered the European DJIA.
-FESX is still holding it's 50dma<200dma death cross.


-Hourly shows a retrace back to the 127% Fib Extension with a MACD bearish divergence*.


PnF charts:
Pnf charts are very bullish, showing breakouts up, on top of previous breakouts up, on both the 5x3 and 5x1 charts.



30-min Volume Profile:
Clear breakout over an ascending wedge. Price currently backtesting the ascending trendline.


Weekly Market Profile:
Merging the last 5 weeks gives a very balanced profile. There is going to be a big move soon. I'm thinking the market will use the Fed meeting on March 21 as the "news event" to spike the market one way or the other.



Daily Market Profile:
Merging three days together gives a balance profile. Price tried to move up on this balance yesterday, but fell back into a double distribution on indecision.


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

My real swing-trading is going horribly (Nasdaq ETF's (I think I've erroneously stated NQ when in my mind I've been thinking Nasdaq)). My sim day-trading is going swell.

I think the problem is that I am basing all my swing-trading decisions on my sim day-trading charts. I've been getting my time frames confused and taking long-term real trades based on short-term intraday analysis. Argh.

So, I'm just going to look at NQ in a longer time-frame and ignore the intraday period until I can figure out how to get the time frames straight in my mind.

TLDR. Too Long, Didn't Read Summary in One Pic:
-My last update said I was expecting a down move. There was a short-term ~90 point move down on NQ from my last post. Great for daytrading.
-Then it moved up 315 points. Not good for me because I went swing short Nasdaq ETF's based on my prior analysis.
-Then instead of getting out at obvious breakout points, I sat there with my huge swing-trade percentage stop.
-NQ is now at serious support. A breakdown here should give a good move down.
-Trend is up until that breakdown occurs.



Details:
Hey look! Short term balance. I think it'll go down.


It went down. Short term... Long term... It went up. A lot.


Start merging multiple Market Profiles together and it's a different story.


Merged together, the profiles suggest balance (which suggests a vertical move). Looking at it in this time frame (which I didn't do earlier), it's pointing up for the vertical move.


Well, now it's pointing down for a large vertical move -- but the pattern isn't really clean. The deep part of the distribution doesn't look Gaussian so much as just a huge square block of volume.


Ok, I can't resist. Here's a short-term 5x1 NQ chart. If price can print at 7020, that's a significant breakdown.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Solid breakouts of PnF patterns.
Real-swing-trade short Nasdaq ETF's all green.

Major Trading Problems:
I made my daily nut fairly early sim-trading. Then I saw strong signals all over the place. I couldn't bring myself to get in, risking my sim-gains for the day. So I watched TWO sets of strong signals play out while standing on the sidelines.

The pain of doing this TWICE then made me start to play stupid counter-trend moves. Got out of both counter-trend moves at +1 and BE.

I didn't want to take risk when the probability was on my side, then after watching it move without me twice, I couldn't stand it anymore and entered multiple times on sketchy setups. Stupid stupid stupid.




Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

9th day trading FESX.
Every day positive, which shows improvement.

But... This is what I'm doing:



I can, with a decent amount of accuracy, get decent entries. But then I screw up the exit beyond all belief.
Trade #1 (1 contract): I get 3 out of 19 possible ticks.
Trade #2 (2 contracts): I get 11 out of 32 possible ticks.

I set up scaling exits (when I use multiple contracts)... then move the limit order. Emotional problems somewhere. Fear of loss/being wrong probably. The same emotional inadequacy that makes me double-down (in a losing trade) manifesting itself in a winning trade. I'm worried about losing my profits and get out too early. I'm afraid of being wrong.

Mark Douglas writes that successful traders have to come to understand each individual trade is like pulling a slot machine lever. There is no emotional attachment to pulling a slot machine lever. You pull, the wheels spin and you get a result. It's useless to beat yourself up or emotionally attach to the spinning wheels because you can't change the outcome. The wheels will stop where they land. The market will move with or against your entry. You wouldn't beat yourself up over the slot machine not winning. You shouldn't beat yourself up over a losing trade.

I've got an edge. It works. But I lack the emotional control necessary to trade at a level I feel comfortable going live.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Crap. I did it again. I doubled down into a truly epic loser trade.



Price is clearly dropping after two initiative breakouts. The there is a reflexive pullback on weak volume with sell imablances. Everything is screaming "SHORT". Locked into my stupid homework, I read it completely wrong and go LONG.

It takes me about 3 minutes to figure out I've just lost my mind and did the opposite of what I should've done. I look at the situation and try to salvage the loser trade. This is where all my education and work experience work against me.

Bad test grade in school? Study harder.
Client not satisfied? Rework project until client is satisfied.

But a loser trade? Cut my losses (give up) or double down (work it harder)?

My mind drops down a couple of gears and goes full throttle. Thankfully, FESX moves like molasses so I have time to think.

1) FESX has had two drops on high volume. Maybe one more big drop, for a pattern of 3-thrusts-to-a-low/high. But it's probably going to take out my 6-tick stop given the range of the last two breakout bars.
2) FOMC day, so moves are likely to be responsive, moving from the outside back in, until the announcement at 2pm. So it's likely to mean revert. FESX has been mean-reverting for the last 6 or 7 weeks. Big time-frame players, who could really move the market are going to wait for the announcement.
3) First thrust down, 9 ticks. Second thrust down, 11 ticks. Set new stop 11 ticks under last low. That is one huge, huge hole.

I'd like to say I looked at the analysis and made a calculated decision. But the monkey-on-my-back, my emotional desire to be right definitely colored my final decision. Give the trade some room. If a reversal pattern doesn't show up in another 11 ticks, let it go - turning a 6-tick loss into a 14-tick loss.

It played out ok. Another 11-tick thrust ends in a nearly 30:1 buy-imbalance, setting up stopping volume. I double-down and have to grunt through over an hour of chop until price lifts. I have two chances to get out BE but I'm sure I've read the price action right and there is going to be a sizable bounce.

I scale out at VWAP and then finally exit my runner when a 100:1 sell-imbalance appears (it doesn't get any clearer than that).

It would have been a lot less nerve-wracking to have closed out my trade as soon as I realized I had made a mistake and then re-entered later. But the profit was higher by doubling down into the losing position.

So, no improvement. I'm still doubling-down into losers.

But, I've realized that homework seems to have an undue effect on me. I get locked into my homework research and don't have fluidity to react to the market. I end up like a hammer looking for nail to hammer even when there are no nails present (and end up hammering my fingers). I have to find a way to make homework work for me.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

Title: This Green wall of win is actually a trading disaster waiting to happen.

April 2018 results (Jigsaw Performance Dashboard).


Incremental Goal #1: Find an edge. Identify an edge and achieve consistency trading that edge with 1-2 contracts.

Goal #1 achieved. I've now traded FESX at a profit (each individual day) for 36 consecutive trading days. I can sim-trade profitably with consistency. My edge works (volume profiling / footprints / Bookmap based on Niels Koop of AMS Trading and Morad Askar (FT71) of Convergent Trading (I pay to attend both of their classes)). I have developed my edge to a point where I am comfortable with it and it is becoming a natural reaction.

Incremental Goal #2: Scale up my edge. Increase position size, building familiarity with increased risk. Prove to myself that honoring full stops can still be profitable in the long-run and needs to be done to prevent account suicide.

Continuing Issues: I keep doubling down. I will have to stop this. Doubling down on a single contract when each point is only 10 Euro can be recovered from. Doubling down on size will end up killing me when I go live. I have to solve this problem in sim before I go live. I hope that I can convince myself that honoring a full stop is better than dragging out a losing / double-down disaster. I will practice in sim until I can re-wire the emotional part of my brain that requires me to be always correct.

I traded NQ for 46 consecutive winning days. Blew up the account on day-47 due to uncontrolled doubling-down. Then I traded FESX for 36 consecutive winning days. I am still doubling down.

Trading NQ never felt comfortable - I couldn't even imagine going live with the edge I used sim-trading NQ. After taking courses / coaching from Niels Koop and Morad Askar (FT71) I have been able to duplicate the consistency of my NQ trading with FESX - but I have been able to develop my edge into something I feel comfortable with.

Jigsaw Performance Dashboard, March - April, 2018 FESX Statistical Summary


FESX 36 days traded, 107 trades, 83.2% wins, 7.5% losses, 9.3% scratch break-even. Percent long 50.5%. Percent short 49.5%.

I've been able to get away with doubling down because of two factors: 1) I only make losing trades 7.5% of the time. I eventually can get the direction of the market correct enough to "save" a dying trade. 2) I'm only trading 1 contract most of the time, so the hole I dig doubling down is usually recoverable. However, as I've proven on day-47, all it takes is one 3-sigma event and I blow up the account. Everything lost.

What I have to prepare myself for is not seeing a calendar month of all green. This is where being a "good student/employee" really, really hurts me. I want perfect performance statistics/metrics. So I'm journaling this as a memorial to being a "good student" with a green wall of win. I did it and now I have to turn my back to that midnset.

To be able to trade live, I have to more red losing days. Days where I accept that I'm wrong, honor my stop and turn the green screen into a checkerboard of green and red. All it takes is one 3-sigma day and the "green screen of win" is completely obliterated because I keep doubling-down.

Some thoughts about trading:

For April, 2018, I finished 5th place out of 221 participants. That's in the top 2.5%. That matches with the acceptance rate at the two top-10 graduate programs I attended (I am a very good student). And that is my problem. The mentality of being a good student - what worked in academics and most professional careers doesn't work in trading. I traded in a very specific pattern, taking very specific risks to achieve the highest possible score possible. In effect, I'm trading like I would take a standardized exam for entry into a prestigious academic program or pass a professional exam-- I'm aiming for a score.

The score doesn't matter. Being right doesn't matter. What matters is your ability to read the market and act accordingly.

Learning how to trade is the hardest thing I've ever done because there is no one single solution. In the academic and professional world, there is usually a well documented solution to every possible problem. All you have to do is search hard enough and you will find that already prepared solution. That does not exist in trading. No matter how hard you look, there is no pre-made, already researched and proven solution that explains how to trade. You have to find the unique solution that works for you. And that solution is specific to just one person - yourself.

So this post marks the end of the first part of my trading journey.

It's taken 6 months. I've gone from hopeless to having a solid and consistent edge that works and I am comfortable with. I have the performance metrics that prove what I'm doing works. Now, I have to go beyond the metrics and the contrived trading for emotional satisfaction and employ my edge in a way that I will eventually be able to make a living from it.

I have to give up being a good student and a good employee and I have to destroy my beautiful metrics and egotistical emotions and learn how to trade for a living.

---
Notes:
Pete Davies at Jigsaw described their leaderboard algorithms as based on what a prop-shop is looking for. Consistency across all trading environments. The algorithm doesn't weigh gross profit-and-loss as the primary statistic. Instead, it's looking for the trader who can consistently make money under any conditions. Because once a trader can do that, he can simply scale up his position size to make more money. This is in contrast to a boom-or-bust trader that posts huge PnL one week and then blows up the next week. So, I rank highly in the algorithm even though my PnL is tiny (due to only trading 1-2 contracts) because I consistently can sim-trade making money.

Trading is ridiculously hard. Simply getting break-even puts you in the top 50% of traders on the Jigsaw leaderboard. Morad Askar (FT71) says it takes two years for an online trader to become successful trading live. I'm 6 months in and hoping I can do it within a year.

I highly recommend Jigsaw's Performance Dashboard Leaderboard as it lets you compare your performance to a decent sample size of other people trying to learn how to trade (I think one or two of the top guys are actually live trading). It gives you a yardstick to measure your progress so you know if you're improving or not. Is the bad week you suffered due to you or did the market go crazy and everyone else also had a bad week? These kind of metrics are impossible to get if you're trading alone and in isolation.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,977 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 823 given, 10,312 received


Binkius View Post
Title: This Green wall of win is actually a trading disaster waiting to happen.

April 2018 results (Jigsaw Performance Dashboard).


A few things you didn't note comment on but you should.....

1 - You are consistent in number of trades - which is a good sign you have your behavior in check, sticking to your plan.
2 - You had 2 losing days you turned into winning days - which is a very, very good sign - the ability to turn a day around.

Cheers

Pete

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received


DionysusToast View Post
A few things you didn't note comment on but you should.....

1 - You are consistent in number of trades - which is a good sign you have your behavior in check, sticking to your plan.
2 - You had 2 losing days you turned into winning days - which is a very, very good sign - the ability to turn a day around.

Cheers

Pete

Earlier, I said learning to trade is horrible because there simply isn't one single answer. Another reason that it's horrible to learn how to trade is that there is an endless amount of bad information out there. Just pure rubbish. False, misleading, and predatory information swamps the few isolated legitimate educators/software providers.

So, somewhere out there, you have to piece together your answer to trading and this is made even more difficult because of all the charlatans out there peddling absolute bullshit to unsuspecting customers.

There's a thread somewhere on futures.io about how much money people have wasted trying to find the "answer". I can say that I've contributed my fair share of thousands of dollars and been ripped off by charlatan educators preying on people trying to learn how to trade.

Of the money I've spent learning to trade - Pete Davies is one of 3 individuals where I feel that my money has been well spent. Because the trading-educational market is so predatory, cost is NOT a sign of quality. Actually, in my experience, as cost increases, quality of information provided decreases.

It's like the most immoral, cheating, predatory "educators" charge more to make their scams seem more valuable. I paid more to one charlatan than to the 3 legitimate educators combined who have helped me get to this point in my education.

But back to Pete Davies. He's an educator that can look at your trading metrics and immediately pick out where you are having problems and where you are doing good (as can be seen by his post above). I knew I had turned a corner in April because I could turn a losing day around - honor my stop, drawdown for the day, but then be able to change my mindset enough to get back into the correct rhythm of the market. A good coach/educator can see that in your metrics and offer advice for further improvement, or even improvement in a direction you never even imagined.

These are the three people who taught me how to trade and use their software. If I ever can trade for a living, it started with what these 3 guys have taught me.

Pete Davies / Jigsaw
Niels Koop / AMS
Morad Askar (FT71) / Convergent (S5)

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

It's been a long time since my last post. Here are my last eight months of SIM trading.

(3) losing days in (152) trading days - but employing self-destructive trading practices.

Eight months of horrible habits:
  • Doubling down
  • Lifting stops
  • Refusing to admit I'm wrong

My attempt to turn trading into a career is based on three steps. If Step 1 can't be done, there's no reason to go to Step 2. If Step 2 can't be done, there's no reason to go to Step 3. I have a limited amount of capital and cannot waste it trading before I can truly trade.

This is an assault on my personal Everest. Each Step is a basecamp along the way.

Step 1: Figure out how to SIM trade.
Step 2: Top Step Trader. 1/2 way between SIM and LIVE. I have some "skin" in the game now.
Step 3: LIVE trade.

I've finished Step 1. I've got a trading system that more-or-less works. I'm trying to improve my system to be more realistic (no doubling down, no lifting my stops). Wife is complaining that I'm spending too much time in front of the computer. I've been trading both European and USA sessions for 8 months now (two sessions allows me twice the experience). Homework, Trade, Review, repeat every weekday. Run replays all weekend. The wife wants to see results so I'm jumping to Step 2 before I've gotten my trading system fully fixed.

I'm working on Step 2. Some advice: I signed up for the cheapest TST Combine. Don't save the money, it's not worth it. The daily loss limit is so low you can only trade (1) contract. Pay a little more and get a higher loss limit so you can trade multiple contracts. This will allow you to scale in and out of trades. I got to within 30% of finishing Level-1 in the Combine in eight days, then ran into news-driven volatility I'm not used to. I'm now back down to 60% away from finishing Level-1. TST is really teaching me about loss limits, stops and needing to be very exact on the entry because you can't afford to double-down. It's very realistic and TST forces me to confront my emotional "monkey".

I think I'm at the point where I've gotten the basic technical skills mostly in order. My system needs some more refining, but it's close to working. Now I have to deal with the emotional issues. Which is going to require changing my system. Hopefully, the majority of the system is workable and won't require major re-working.










Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
 
Comeback King's Avatar
 
Posts: 260 since Aug 2016
Thanks: 184 given, 363 received


Binkius View Post

This is an assault on my personal Everest. Each Step is a basecamp along the way.

Step 1: Figure out how to SIM trade.
Step 2: Top Step Trader. 1/2 way between SIM and LIVE. I have some "skin" in the game now.
Step 3: LIVE trade.

This is very logical to me and exactly what I am doing at the moment. I've been able to do well enough in my paper trading that I feel it's time to take the next step. However I've failed so many times going from sim to live that doing a TST combine seemed a good intermediate step.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
Fairburn, Georgia
 
Experience: None
 
teamtc247's Avatar
 
Posts: 978 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 644 given, 1,106 received


Binkius View Post
It's been a long time since my last post. Here are my last eight months of SIM trading.

(3) losing days in (152) trading days - but employing self-destructive trading practices.

Eight months of horrible habits:
  • Doubling down
  • Lifting stops
  • Refusing to admit I'm wrong

My attempt to turn trading into a career is based on three steps. If Step 1 can't be done, there's no reason to go to Step 2. If Step 2 can't be done, there's no reason to go to Step 3. I have a limited amount of capital and cannot waste it trading before I can truly trade.

This is an assault on my personal Everest. Each Step is a basecamp along the way.

Step 1: Figure out how to SIM trade.
Step 2: Top Step Trader. 1/2 way between SIM and LIVE. I have some "skin" in the game now.
Step 3: LIVE trade.

I've finished Step 1. I've got a trading system that more-or-less works. I'm trying to improve my system to be more realistic (no doubling down, no lifting my stops). Wife is complaining that I'm spending too much time in front of the computer. I've been trading both European and USA sessions for 8 months now (two sessions allows me twice the experience). Homework, Trade, Review, repeat every weekday. Run replays all weekend. The wife wants to see results so I'm jumping to Step 2 before I've gotten my trading system fully fixed.

I'm working on Step 2. Some advice: I signed up for the cheapest TST Combine. Don't save the money, it's not worth it. The daily loss limit is so low you can only trade (1) contract. Pay a little more and get a higher loss limit so you can trade multiple contracts. This will allow you to scale in and out of trades. I got to within 30% of finishing Level-1 in the Combine in eight days, then ran into news-driven volatility I'm not used to. I'm now back down to 60% away from finishing Level-1. TST is really teaching me about loss limits, stops and needing to be very exact on the entry because you can't afford to double-down. It's very realistic and TST forces me to confront my emotional "monkey".

I think I'm at the point where I've gotten the basic technical skills mostly in order. My system needs some more refining, but it's close to working. Now I have to deal with the emotional issues. Which is going to require changing my system. Hopefully, the majority of the system is workable and won't require major re-working.










It looks like you are on the right track. The only difference between SIM and live is the added extra emotions. Try not to focus on the daily fluctuations and take it slow. I am one of those guys that the emotions affect me, I can relate to what you are saying. I have felt bipolar at times. Just trade small, don't go too big, don't revenge trade on a losing day, and be okay walking away if things aren't working for you that day. Perhaps, go for your first target. Get those base hits and build some confidence. Then when you add you can go for additional exits. You can do it SIM, so you can do it live. It will be uncomfortable, but that’s part of the growth and challenge. I looked for all the magic pills and magic techniques for emotions , I couldn't find one. I like NQ too.

Process oriented goals #1.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to teamtc247 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
Taipei/Taiwan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: IRT/Bookmap
Broker: S5
Trading: FESX, NQ
 
Posts: 33 since Apr 2016
Thanks: 31 given, 54 received

I don't want to harsh in someone else's thread, so I'll post on my own thread instead.

I've been reading a lot of posts about psychology.

Now, I'm having my own fight with psychology and trading, but I think a lot of people are missing the point.

The single most important thing you need to develop before you work on anything else is:

Do you have a working edge?

If you don't have a working edge, you are probably chasing price around with a 20-30% hit rate. No amount of risk management or psychological control will make a 20-30% hit rate profitable with the tools and capital available to the small retail trader.

Without a working edge, it's useless to work on your psychology because you don't even know if the feelings you're working on are right or wrong because you can't even tell if the trade you made or didn't make was right or wrong.

If you can't tell if you have a valid trade because you have no edge or system that defines a valid trade there is no way you can even judge your psychological reaction. You're just chasing price around.

Starting with psychology is putting the cart in front of the horse. Then shooting the horse because it feels like you're doing something to control the random losing outcome of chasing price around.

I'm watching a friend blow up a small fortune trading LIVE. Pro-tip and I'm not a pro: It's a lot less painful to lose a small fortune in SIM than LIVE.

"I knew I was right."
"I knew I should of done XYZ instead of ABC."
"Why am I always on the losing side?"
"The problem is my psychology."

No. The problem is that you don't have an edge or system. If you KNEW what to do then didn't do it, you could correct the problem. But you will never correct the problem because you don't have an edge or system to correct. You're just chasing price around and saying you "knew" what do but didn't do it when you lose. You are one serious trend reversal away from blowing up your account.

You have to find, develop, copy, get a working edge.

Applying psychology to a random guess at which way price is going to go next is not going to make chasing price around become profitable.

The market is an auction designed to find the highest buyer and lowest seller. If you cannot situate your trade logically and repeatedly in that auction you do not have an edge. You are just chasing price around.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Binkius for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > NQ - Slowly figuring things out. Very slowly.


Last Updated on December 16, 2018


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1500 prizes from Topstep!

February
 

Identifying Setups & Targets Using Profile Charts w/Trevor & Tradovate

Feb 25
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts