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So then what determines the opening price on Sunday? The first transaction that hits the books? Sorry, having a difficult time wrapping my head around this for some reason. Maybe more tequila?
Short @1.1823, previous resistance area and butting up against upper line of short term trend channel. Tentative target 1.1809, wishing I could play with two cars right now.
Edit: Glad I'm not allowing myself two contracts to play with right now, because I can't seem to follow any of my other rules.
Mr Discipline here. If you can't do the math and figure out that the cost of commission+a small loss = a small loss, then why on EARTH would you move your stop? Answer... because you believe you know what the market will do.
Fact: Nobody knows what the market will do. Anything can happen at any time. You don't have to know what the market is going do to make money. But you sure as hell better cut your damn losses short. And know what you don't know.
Chart later after I do some real work and get over myself.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yes me thinks. Ill take a stab at a more involved explanation. I’m sure I am missing some pieces.
As of the friday close, the market orders have all been filled, and the unfilled good-till-close orders are auto-canceled. All thats left still on the books will be good-till-cancel limit orders some distance away from the last price.
When the market opens on Sunday, the bid/ask is as wide as those leftover limit orders from Friday. New limit orders start to come in from various players, which narrows the spread, and as soon as someone comes in with a market order we get the first print at either the bid or the ask. Which could be anywhere, not necessarily close to the last print on Friday.
H4:
Price attempted a rebound and dipped back down to retest the recent lows at 1808. The likely path seems to be a move down to 1775. If bulls can retake 1850 then we may get a surprise squeeze.
M15:
Zooming in on the little head and shoulders that formed in the last 15 hours or so. I suppose there are 3 basic scenarios to prep. Any other thing could also happen, but these are the obvious possibilities I see, in order of interest.
One: This 1808 low holds this test for a small bounce up to one of these levels, say 1830 (short). Then it turns back and finally breaks 1808 to run to 1775.
Two: The 1808 low doesn't hold on this test, spikes lower and ideally draws back to the low 1800s (short) before turning lower.,
Three: 1808 low holds this test, bounces up to say 1830, slows but doesn't turn back to break the lows, and instead bounces (Long) to retest 1850 to the upside.
Had some decent winners, but keep shooting myself in the foot by allowing my losers to run too long. Could have been in the black, except for this tendency to hang on to bad trades when I know I should get out. Hopium... I mentioned it before, but it bears repeating, for my own benefit.
The cost of commission+a small loss still equals a small loss. Why on EARTH would I move my stop (this is the WTF trade indicated on my chart?) Answer... because I believed I knew what the market was going to do... wrong.
Fact: Nobody knows what the market will do. Anything can happen at any time. You don't have to know what the market is going do to make money. But you sure as hell better cut your damn losses short. And know what you don't know.
Today is another day, I am aware of and will work on my problem areas. Just observing for now.
Read Adam Grimes The art and science of technical analysis PG353
He does an excellent job of explaining cognitive biases concerning losses. In a nutshell, we are naturally inclined to lock in smaller gains but take our chances on larger losses. Albeit a natural process inherent in the machinery, the problem is that we all have to learn the standard operating procedure the hard way
That little sequence of trades has helped you get to know yourself a little better
Making a plan is not so hard. Executing it is a different story.
One might think I'd be doing pretty well this morning, given the pullback and drop, as planned for.
M1:
Entered with two on the first attempt short. Fail.
Entered with one on the second attempt short. Now I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place. Did not close the trade at 1808, reaching for a breakdown for more ... Problem with only having one lot.
I'm hoping some of this is just being rusty, and being new to trading multiple lots.
I tried to wait for more confirmation from the 5-min action. First entry short happened to be right into a support line that I didn't notice until later.
M5:
Another tale of moderate woe and weak sauce. Come on guys, let's get this thread popping.
Thoughts.
I have no firm rule in place for entering with one vs two lots and that is weak sauce. I will consider starting tomorrow just always entering with two to simplify this problem.
I have tried a couple different entry methods, and stop mgmt methods. Continuing to feel this out. I believe there is a happy medium between purely fading price on the entry, and following price, and that there is some wiggle room there depending how aggressive I want to be on the trade. Today I followed price, and that helped, but it's important to keep your eyes on the road.
Dec 6: -19 + 13 + 0 = -6 on 4 round turns = -$15.66
Dec 5: -$7.37
Dec 6: $-15.66
-----------------------
-$23.03
Sitting on my hands right now, AFK and just missed a short opportunity. Bears are showing more drive today. Had a couple of bad compulsive trades earlier but nipped that in the bud, cut losers short, down 7 ticks so far. Waiting... but a tight range so far today.
