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Trading journal ES system trading.
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Trading journal ES system trading.

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Hi kanepa,

very impressive performance and good luck with your position sizing.

The biggest risk you can ever take is not betting on yourself!
(Bill Williams)
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  #42 (permalink)
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philadelphia pa
 
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Target 5 completed.

Trading has been in favor of profitable trades this year. Have had losers but over all, account is growing well. But take a note that this can go away at any time. Depending on what market does, I can meet my next target tomorrow or 2 years later. Just play according to the play book.

Next target to be at 60k. Will not increase number of cars. Instead, will be increasing Investment by $1000 per contract to 6000. If this goal is achieved, my total risk will be reduced from 15000 to 5000.

--Account at 60k. 10 car X 4000(max risk)=40,000.
60k-40k=20k (trading stops)
original investment: 25000 therefor -5000


Beginning balance(10/12/2017) 24,684.06
Investment per 1 contract: 5,000
Max risk per 1 contract : 4,000
current number of contract: 10
Current account balance : 54,646.58(little less due to monthly market data payments)
Profit/lost from beginning : 29,962.52

Target 1: 30k met on 11/18/2017
next target: 35,000.00

Target 2: 35,000 met on 1/11/2018 adding 1 car. total 7 contract.
Next target: 40,000.00

1/20 temp. boosting account with 13k to trade 3 additinal contracts.
--pull back 13k once trading account reaches 50k(2/15 sending 13k back home)
--Add 7500 into trading account if falls below 25k
--No adding contracts until trading account is at 55,000 level.

1/25/ Target 3: 40k met.
Next target:45,000

2/6 Target 4: 45,000 met.
Next target: 50,000

2/15 Target 5: 50,000 met
Next target: 60,000

Attached Thumbnails
Trading journal ES system trading.-a2.jpg   Trading journal ES system trading.-a3.jpg   Trading journal ES system trading.-a4.jpg  
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  #43 (permalink)
Elite Member
philadelphia pa
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 123 since Jul 2017
Thanks: 296 given, 261 received

Elite member


Thank you Mike and other members of this forum. This is very informative and clean trading forum. Perhaps the best of all..I would like to say thank you by becoming an elite member. Have a great weekends.

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  #44 (permalink)
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philadelphia pa
 
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No winner this week.

4 straight losing trades. Up 11,390.00 previous week and this week, -8145.00

Not much thoughts other than ES, so far has not produced much of slippage. Will continue to play the system and follow my plan.

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Trading journal ES system trading.-aa1.jpg   Trading journal ES system trading.-aa2.jpg  
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  #45 (permalink)
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Posts: 123 since Jul 2017
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still working on target 6.

System did not produced buy signal since Jan 26. A lot of fortunes can be made or lost at this high volatility market. I have made difficult for the system to generate long signals in these environments to protect myself.

23 Sell trades since then. 14 unprofitable and 9 profitable trades. Some of them came in strings. 5 straight stop outs was a little bit difficult to watch. At 2k risk per trades, seeing account down more than 10k, was not easy. Having said that, it was not as difficult as in the past when I had no system, trying to trade with methodologies which I barely understand nor back tested. If I was myself just a couple of years ago, I would have blown the account with revenge trading.

First image is weekly result from back test from 11/15 to 9/16. Almost a year, it struggled to make it into positive territory. Knowing this is coming to my way soon or later helps me stay calm on trading results(not easy but still...better)

Second image is a trade shot. Actual trade had a positive slippage. Instead of 5 point gain on updated NT chart, it had gain of 5.25 and it was 4 ticks away from that swing low. I am finding out that there is positive slippages on real time trading. Another progress I am making is it's becoming easier to watch market moves in direction I was in right after getting stopped out. It's random. No one is out there watching where I put my stops in and trying to get it up there. Even when I used to say "GRRR! They stopped me out again!" I was wondering who did I meant by "They"

Thank you and have a wonderful weekends.

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Trading journal ES system trading.-12-copy.jpg   Trading journal ES system trading.-13-copy.jpg   Trading journal ES system trading.-14-copy.jpg  
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  #46 (permalink)
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3 and out

According to the back test, 3 trades getting stopped out on a same day was never repeated in that same year. But it happened in 2018. Feb 7th and today. Anything can happen in this market! Be prepared and react accordingly. First image is all of 3 and out days in last 12 years.

Second image is real time equity curve. Dropping lower than February's low.

I spent about 7 month in system trading. It is becoming easier to watch trades. I am noticing Anxiety and excitement on individual trades are getting reduced as time goes by.

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  #47 (permalink)
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Keep on trading.

After some losing period, I am noticing this urge to change and tweak the system. But I must remain still and follow the path I have chosen. Analysis was done. I OKed amount of risk. There is nothing more I can do. Period. Just like losing trades are part of this game, so are losing months. Get that through your head.

I might be able to successfully teak some numbers of studies and fit it into this current market situation but in long run, I know it will be poisonous to both trading account and myself. So much time and effort was put in to develop the system. Its time to trade, take risk, and Accept what market might or might not gives me.

Only area that I am allowed to change is position sizing and risk per unit. Risk per unit is set to never decrease. Only increase when time is right.

Writing this to re-affirm my position and trying my best to DO what I have planned to play this game.

Thank you.

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  #48 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I guess the only big question is whether you think the system has been prone to excessive curve fitting. In which case it can break at any time, as indeed all systems do that aren't based on a deep market model at one or more levels. @kevinkdog Kevin Davey springs to mind here.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Hi, ratfink. Thank you for the comment and suggestion. I will read kevinkdog's post.

Yes. Curve fitted system can fail at anytime. However a few facts can still remain a valid point to US index market. Such as volatility increases on Monday morning resulting gap opens, swings can be more chaotic at opening and ending time of the market than lunch hour, market goes down much faster than going up and etc. I have placed a few of my own theory about market into the system. Will it change my odd of making money playing this game? I do not know but I think it might have a better chance than me personally pulling the trigger.

Answer to the big question is Yes, it will fail but I do not know when. It can work next 10 years as well. It is up to the market. In meanwhile, I will continue to bet on my system and share results.

Thank you.

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  #50 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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kanepa View Post
I have placed a few of my own theory about market into the system. Will it change my odd of making money playing this game? I do not know but I think it might have a better chance than me personally pulling the trigger.

Answer to the big question is Yes, it will fail but I do not know when. It can work next 10 years as well. It is up to the market. In meanwhile, I will continue to bet on my system and share results.

Indeed and much appreciated as I also intend to join the system journey by the end of this year.

Travel Well
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