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Brandon’s Journal for Accountability - Live Futures Account
A significant aspect of what makes this job so difficult is that it demands you to be your own boss. It sounded straightforward and easy enough in the beginning, but after a little over a year of volatile and overall negative returns, it’s time to fix some things. It’s easy to slack off and break the rules when nobody is looking, so when I discovered this sub-forum, I figured I’d make the most of it. I’ve realized that the single best thing I can do right now to immediately improve my trading is to put my reputation on the line. I’m confident in my read on the markets and analysis methodologies, but in terms of risk management and accountability, I have some serious work to do. It’s holding me back and I’ll never achieve the goals I strive for if I don’t change my ways. And that’s why I’m here, and so it begins.
My overall plan is to religiously use this thread to document my trading ideas, plans, and executions. I’m anticipating three primary posts per day; the first in the morning to fine tune the previous night’s plan (taking into account overnight action), the second following the US session close to review the day’s performance, and the third before I head to sleep to plan for the next day.
As for my strategy, I trade all four major US equity indexes (ES, NQ, YM, TF) using multi-timeframe analysis. I also monitor GC and CL on an intraday basis, and sporadically other markets on the H1, H4, and D1 timeframes to monitor for other exceptional setups. All of my trades fall into one of two categories; fading auction failure at significant levels, and entering at levels where trapped traders are likely to begin liquidating. I have various other specific setups with more specific rules but they can all be boiled down into one of the two categories above.
As for risk management, I have a fixed initial risk of 3% per trade, 4R per day, and an additional circuit breaker at 4 losers in a row. My exits are based on the first logical area I anticipate the market having trouble at, unless I have a higher timeframe bias, in which case I will run trades and trail my stop accordingly. When I run, I take reasonable opportunities to pyramid, while at the same time controlling initial risk and treating each entry as it’s own trade.
At this point, you might be wondering why I’ve been having trouble because it sounds like I certainly have a well thought out plan…and you’d be right. It’s just that I have a nasty habit of taking trades that don’t fall into my 2 setup categories, and risking more than planned after a loss. I aim for this thread to keep me accountable from making mistakes like these going forward. Below will be my first daily plan going into tomorrow’s session. I look forward to any comments and/or feedback.
Markets: ES - big level at 2461 I'm watching for a short. Doesn't matter so much when but I'm hoping it first trades after FOMC for some volatility NQ - corresponding level to the one in the ES here is 5879 that has just nearly traded. I expect the market to pullback from here and normally I would enter a short position but one of my rules is to not trade the equity indexes outside of RTH. EMD - looking for a short between 1725 - 1730. 1724.8 could be a level to watch tomorrow assuming we hold below that level overnight CL - bearish engulfing on the daily, looking for a short around 49.03 back to below 48 AUDUSD (6A) - inside day failure provides a long bias, but no entry yet. If I had to bid, it'd be 0.79094 USDJPY (6J) - failure at daily swing @ 108.802 provides a long bias, but again no entry. If I were long, I'd expect a rally to and turn at 109.552 USDCHF (6S) - market is currently basing at flipped S/R from 7/26 so long bias here again, but no entry. Additionally, a level I will be watching all week, especially heading into FOMC is 0.97144 for a short.
Other notes:
Regarding having a long bias in all 3 FX pairs above, I'd trust AUDUSD the least as it is the outlier. USDCHF and USDJPY confirm each other whereas AUDUSD effectively hedges the others.
Markets: ES/NQ/EMD - see previous post, analysis still valid. YM now also in play for a short around 21960-21980. CL - the initial 49.03 area I liked for a short never traded but since the market has already pulled back considerably from this level, I don't like this setup as much. Will watch PA AUDUSD (6A) - outlier note was key here - market initially broke higher but then immediately failed. I missed an opportunity to short this flipped S/R because I was asleep, but would have been a nice entry. Setup no longer in play here USDJPY (6J) - market broke higher overnight but gave no entry, long bias still in play but no new entries USDCHF (6S) - market also broke higher overnight and I missed an entry opportunity around 3AM because obviously I was asleep, but the level mentioned above market is still in play.
GC - watching 1290.8 area for a short. This will be invalidated if the market trades much lower from where it is now before it trades higher.
Other Notes:
Although this is a futures forum, I'll also be watching the continuing divergence between VIA and VIAB shares. Can't quite tell what the cause is, so I'm sidelined, but could be a decent opportunity/warning sign of news.
Daily Review for 08/14/17:
4 orders, 2 trades, P/L: -0.3R
ES - took a short position in the morning as planned when the market failed at it's high just before 10AM. In my mind, with the significance of this level, the market should have immediately traded away but it instead drifted back towards the highs. Given this PA, I stopped myself out early for roughly a -0.6R loser. Didn't take the planned short in the NQ as a drift sideways before a level is a red flag that it isn't going to hold. Also, I expected this level to not trade for a few more days so the fact the market returned so quickly likely contributed to it's lack of strength (strength doesn't show in this screenshot but 2461 was a massive H1 level).
CL - my analysis isn't always this spot on but the market sold off from the 49.03 area exactly as expected. The only problem is I only had a roughly 0.3R winner. My initial target was very close to market, despite the massive daily short bias. I should have anticipated the broken gap level holding the market and waited for an entry later in the day around 11AM. Regarding not holding to target, the market came within a tick of filling me so I exited early. Had I waited another 7 minutes, I would have been filled for +1.6R but it was practically the low tick before the market traded my stop.
GC - was away from the computer when this setup triggered but it worked exactly as expected (short @ 1290.8)
USDCHF (6S) - was also away from the computer for this and similarly, the market reacted with a nice little move to the first area of resistance. The missed entry from early this morning is also shown given the daily long USD/short CHF bias.
News:
2 AM - German GDP
4:30 AM - GBP CPI
8:30 AM - USD Retail Sales
4:30 PM - API CL inventories
Markets: GBPUSD (6B) - will probably be asleep myself but a spike higher into 1.2995 - 1.3005 on the CPI number should make for a good short EURUSD (6E) - not the cleanest setup but 1.18096 looks good for a short USDJPY (6J) - 110.28 above market and 109.754 below market are the only levels I'm watching. Odds are they trade overnight before I have a chance to take any entries GC - market is currently trading lower into previous daily highs so I'm looking for long setups only. No specific levels but I anticipate one or more failed re-test swings lower to break higher and serve as support for a continuation move higher. CL - will be watching for 48.43 to hold for a rotation lower, but not necessarily to new lows. If the market breaks higher through this area, the next level for a short is around 48.88 RTY/TF - failure at 1393.7 gap after a rotation lower with confluence at today's highs could be a good long, assuming the gap fills tomorrow EMD - 1743.7 is a very formidable level above market for a short, will wait for PA before entering
Other notes:
Since I primarily trade the equity indexes/commodities and not the currencies, my analysis right now for the FX pairs is intended more to just gauge my read on those markets rather than to serve as actual trade plans. Once I see how well my ideas are actually playing out, I'll either drop those markets or trade them more actively.
Markets: *overall no major changes to the previous plan* GC - any bullish PA around 1271 will get me long. Major support there from 08/08
Other notes:
I left out NG analysis last night but still had a level in mind - 2.969 for a short. I left it out because of how illiquid NG is outside of RTH but looking back, it held perfectly.
