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Brandon’s Journal for Accountability - Live Futures Account
Daily Review for 08/21/17:
2 orders, 0 trades, P/L: 0R
EURUSD - market broke higher as expected but offered no entries
GC - I was extremely surprised to see this trading higher on the session when I woke up but I was still watching the 1295 area for failure. The market didn't give an entry but sure enough when 1295 broke, the market went on a 45 tick stop run.
CL - incredibly disappointing day here as once again I missed a move that I dead on called. Didn't quite get 49.04 but I had multiple orders to short throughout the day that either never filled, or I found a reason to pull. I had another order to scalp a long that was missed by 2 ticks, but I cancelled it once the market moved away.
NQ - although the PA today wasn't quite as bullish as I had anticipated, I was still looking for long setups only. I missed 3 setups here; the first because I didn't think the level was significant enough, the second also - surprise, surprise - because I didn't trust the level enough, and finally third because I wasn't happy with a stop as far as I thought it needed to be. All three setups ended up working very well.
Other notes:
I made no plan revision post this morning because all setups and levels from last night were still valid. In the future, if there's no morning post, that's what it means, that I have no changes to make to my plan from the previous night.
Markets: GBPUSD - not leaving any working orders in overnight, but I'm also not waking up at 4AM to trade the news. This most likely means the level I've been watching for the past week will finally trade and work perfectly, especially because today was an inside day. EURUSD - messy area of highs below market that could serve as a springboard for a major break higher. Specifically 1.1768, stop potentially as tight as 10 pips (1.1758). Again, a spike into this area on news is preferable. USDCAD - level below market at 1.25157 still valid. USDCHF - level above market at 0.97040 also still valid. GC - daily short bias from Friday is still valid. Also watching the yen closely given the correlation. ES/YM/NQ/RTY/EMD - bias to the long side is still valid and in fact now even stronger with failure at ETH lows in addition to RTH lows. Considering that these markets are already trading up significantly, a gap up tomorrow could also cause a squeeze with the amount of selling that went on today below Friday's lows. Still not playing around with 1366 in RTY and 1711 in EMD though, will cut any longs in those markets there (and maybe even scalp short) but in ES/NQ/YM, will be looking to run for a trend day.
Markets: AUDUSD - looking for a short at 0.79368, stop 0.79444 EURUSD - market broke through the level from last night but I completely overlooked the fact stop placement was straight into another area of support; 1.17496. I'm still bullish from where the market is trading now. USDCAD - the more structure the market puts in before trading 1.25157, the less I like the setup. This long is now only valid for a scalp. GC - currently offered 1293, stop 1294.2.
Other notes:
Other levels and analysis from last night remain valid.
Daily Review for 08/22/17:
3 orders, 3 trades, P/L: -2.2R
GC - my first trade today was a short re-test of pre-breakdown lows that was immediately stopped out. This stop run for a second day in a row reinforces how many shorts are being trapped in these moves. After the market traded straight back down to my entry, I took a second entry at a very minor level and was stopped out just above this level. The market then proceeded to puke 70 ticks straight to my target lows. I was thinking I made a mistake here but even if I had taken the most conservative entry, the stop run would still have traded where I would have placed my stop, so a very unfortunate move really.
CL - my idea from yesterday to short 48.01 with a stop at 48.12 was still valid this morning so I reentered the orders but was quickly stopped out here too. It wasn't until just now doing my daily review that I noticed that the setup triggered and actually worked perfectovernight, and thus the opportunity was essentially already gone by the time I took the trade. I'm not sure how I missed that overnight action, but I'll be sure now to never overlook the ETH PA again in the future.
ES/YM/NQ/RTY/EMD - market squeezed higher on the open exactly as expected and trended higher all day, also exactly as expected. Problem is I took none of the very few entry opportunities that the market offered, so I didn't profit at all from a massive move I saw coming from a mile away.
Other notes:
Once again an incredibly disappointing day and given the circumstances, I'll be switching over to demo tomorrow as a psychological experiment.
News:
3:00 AM - EUR Draghi Speech
10:30 AM - EIA CL Inventories
Markets: GBPUSD - bullish bias here with failure at 1.28118 daily low from July 12th. EURUSD - today was an inside day, expecting likely upside follow through tomorrow. USDCHF - I'm liking 0.97041 above market for a short less and less as the market puts in a level just beneath that area GC - still waiting for a breakdown but given the trouble it's given me thus far, I'm not taking any shorts, rather I'm only waiting for a long at 1279.2 CL - a spike higher into 48.54 on inventories should be good for a short ES - 2461 looking for shorts, 2436 looking for longs NQ - corresponding levels here are 5908 for shorts, and 5828 for longs EMD - 1711 above market for shorts, 1699 below market for longs YM - 21985, above market for shorts, 21773 below market for longs
Other notes:
Won't be trading the equity indexes until either the upside or downside levels are touched. They're trading in a very volatile range right now that I think has no directional bias except at the extremes. Accordingly, vertical moves to the downside are likely to be undone in a vertical fashion to the upside, and likewise vice versa. Also, see my previous post regarding taking the day off tomorrow to trade on demo. Hopefully that will shed some light on the psychology mistakes I'm making with regard to deciding which setups to take/pass on.
Ended the day green on sim as I was afraid I would; up 9.5R. No daily review or plan for tomorrow yet as I intend on taking another day off to work on setup statistics and to review my journal for the past week.
Daily Review for 08/25/17:
4 orders, 3 trades, P/L: +4R
AUDUSD (6A) - was never a huge fan of this setup, especially being bearish the dollar, but I figured it would be fine for a quick trade on the Jackson Hole volatility at 10AM. Sure enough, that's when I was filled but the zone I sold wasn't quite strong enough to hold back price. No real mistakes here, just a setup that didn't work.
GC - a massive opportunity missed here because I didn't trade the right market. Given the correlation between gold and silver, the highlighted level below was valid in both markets. I was bid all night, but only in gold, hoping for a quick spike down for a rapid bounce. This is exactly what happened and I don't think I've ever seen a setup work better than it did in silver, but the corresponding level never traded in gold. This trade would have returned 5+ R had I executed in silver rather than gold.
NQ - missed a setup here on the re-test of morning highs but nailed two scalps later in the day. The first was a short re-test of resistance that I added to before my exit. The second was a long re-test of a breakout that also worked out very quickly. Only 2 ticks drawdown on each initial entry.
EMD - missed another setup here; standard re-test of a wrong-way move on the open. The level wasn't significant enough to bid blind, but when price failed at this level shortly after it first re-tested, that would have been enough to get me long. It's just that I was looking at my minute charts, not my reversal bar charts.
ES - I mistakenly wasn't really watching late in the day after my two NQ trades but I missed another two setups here. First in the morning was an accumulation pattern; 3 drives to a low with failure at the last 2, and the second later in the day on the second round of Jackson Hole volatility shorting the re-test of broken morning lows.
Other notes:
Overall, I think taking the past two days off helped with the psychology, enough that I took the setups that I know work, but I'm still missing a lot simply because I'm not paying attention. This is something I'll look to keep in mind this upcoming week.
Markets: USDJPY - looking for a short at 109.556 equity indexes - bearish bias going into tomorrow so looking for short trades soon after the open. Gold looking like it's about to break confirms this bias through the correlation.
News:
8:30 AM - Durable Goods
ALL DAY - Jackson Hole Symposium
Markets:
GC - currently bid 1279.4
AUDUSD - currently offered 0.7935
CL - currently offered 48.15
Other notes:
n/a
Take a look at where I was offered CL and where the opening auction tonight topped out. Still missing opportunity after opportunity. Evidently even on Sunday nights...
