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Can you be profitable using these bots? I think so but a lot of what determines is pure luck. Picking right bot, and running the bot at the right time.
I have had success with this strategy for example picking BP system is December and GC in January. Using historic volatility for certain months I have been profitable over the last six months. Still a novice in futures overall and not a lot of experience. I think adding LIVE P/L in my search criteria has helped me pick good systems too.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
My apologies I'm new to this site. I see now for some reason when I first saw the post I couldn't see all the pages. Hope all is well talk to you soon.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
No worries @FinTrader1. Hope you enjoy futures.io. I think you will find there is a wealth of information here.
TLDR of this thread: I approached my iSystems journey by trying to identify systematic/statistical methods to identify and trade profitable trading systems. This was a real money experiment and it failed! Lots of analysis and discussion as to how and why.
Hello everyone wanted to follow up with my experiences so far with I-Systems. Mind you I consider myself a novice. This is my experiences with one contract per system via time line.
I started back in October looking for some returns. I first started reviewing the returns on an annual basis. How I came across:
Then I started seeing with seasonality in commodities and noticed some systems work better in volatility with certain commodities. I use this site to research commoditiy seasonality going back 20 years: https://commodityseasonality.com/
I got in kinda of late with indices hoping to get some vol. around the election and went with:
YM 11/2020 20 days https://ampfutures.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=22841
-$1,837
Definitely got in late and stayed for too long. Their was no real vol around the election like expected anyways.
Then with further Brexit decisions and votes their was a lot of vol expected in December. I found a system that did well during the original Brexit vote back in summer of 2016.
BP 12/2020 https://ampfutures.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=23161
+$3276
Got the returns I was looking for and then some.
I rolled that strategy into GC for January.
GC 1/2021 - Current https://ampfutures.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=22899
+$11,390
I've decided to stay in this system since because the Live P/L is successful enough to continue this on a month and hopefully year to year basis.
I did decide to get out of the NK system very much sideways action. I have since learned to read systems better.
Currently I'm +$9,947 since October took some losses right away but have climbed out and starting to pick more stable systems. Mainly what I look for is Live P/L, Winning% and making sure the winning averages are significantly larger then average losses among many others. What I think is improving with I-Systems is the Live P/L data is increasing everyday then in the past when their were more skeptics rightfully so.
Again I'm very new to systems and trading overall maybe it's beginners luck. I look forward to your questions and advice I value going forward.
@SMCJB what are your thoughts on my trading the I-Systems thus far? I think now that there's more live date then in the past picking a winning system might be more reliable?
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Greetings @FinTrader1 and thank you for your sharing your experiencing. It's good to know that some people have a positive experience.
Put simply in my analysis of iSystems I struggled to find a quantitative way to identify profitable systems. I was honestly a little surprised and definitely disappointed.
If there's something specific you'd like to discuss let me know, but its been a long time since I've run any of my iSystems data.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
The only difference between "Since Tracked" and "Live" is that somebody is actually trading the system in the "Live" period. In actuality both are post-back test so i made no distinction between the two in my analysis.
Hi Fintrader1, appreciate all that you provided.
Will be great to hear from you since your last post. Am planning to use iSystems thru Amp/Optimus...this one seems interesting:
IntraSwing71Kis_M21 _ Mini-Russell CME RTY: https://optimusfutures.isystems.com/System/PerformanceSheet?Id=24552
Let me know what you think.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
@algotrendz I thought about trying to create a feature that describes the underlying status of the symbol being traded. Trending/Not Trending, High Vol/Normal Vol/Low Vol. I think this would help identify which systems to trade, but more importantly when to and when not to trade them. In the end I never did because
a) With so many different symbols it would have been a lot of work
b) With only a monthly granularity I wasn't sure how effective it would be.
c) So many of the systems are very short term in nature
If the data had a daily granularity to it something like this would have been a lot more possible.
I also now have questions about the reliability of the data in general. Take system 24552 mentioned by @futurerama in the post before yours. (Not picking on this system specifically it was just the last system to be mentioned in this thread). If you look at the trade data, in the backtest data all the trades happen at the hour or on the half hour. Very much looks like it was tested on 30 min bars with trades occurring at the open of the new bar. Even the stop orders execute exactly on the hour or half hour !?! Now look at the more recent live trades with very different time stamps. This could potentially be explained by how the data is reported, or the lack of inter bar order generation on the backtest. But consider this. On 10/13 this system Sold at 7:31, bought at 7:32, sold at 7:34, bought at 7:35 and then sold at 7.38. Five trades in 7 mins for a system that never did more than one trade in 30 mins in the backtest. Looking at the trade frequency in the first 14 months/backtest this system traded once every 28 hours and 45 mins. In the last 4 months since going live it trades every 18 hours and 8 minutes. (The Standard Deviation of the times between trades dropped even more from 45.7 to 21.9). Are the rules the same? Is the backtest valid? Can you believe any of it?
