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I really like the system and i think they have improved it in ten years of its existence. The brokers are also Forex brokers so they can work the system to their benefit. I am going with Gan Direct. That introducing broker stuff is another Fores holdover..They are US regulated so maybe they are more honest.I am going to throw 6K on a developer system who I see doesnt trade when the conditions aren't right. No trade is the best trade
I've have been autotrading for many years and I can tell if it wont make any money because of fees,slippage etc.I can tell if the broker is keeping you from winning. If I see anything that is suspicious I will immediately stop the system and get the broker to send me a check.
Also i'll get only systems that trade minis. The regular contracts are scary and you can lose big time. Minis were introduced for the little guy.
I just discovered the Holy Grail they claim of auto traders with eoption. Of course Ill have to see automated results before I would believe it. I made 700K in the early 2000"s with an auto trading service on TOS so I know you can make money with the right developer..
I can always make a 20% dividend with AMZA but then you got the ps and downs of the stock market to contend with.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Recap
I was reading through this again last night and realized that I never gave an update - and that people are probably wondering where I've been. To recap in December I dropped my laptop damaging the hard drive but thankfully not losing much data. I didn't get things rolling again until after the holidays when I rewrote all my analytical functions, and developed some nice looking graphics for illustrating system performance. I also may some headway in developing a random forest model to predict successful systems. At the end of February the systems I was still trading all continued to perform poorly so I switched them all off.
Then on the 9th March I opened my 9 week old laptop and was greeted by a system message saying it can not find my hard drive. Yeap the hard drive failed. Being an SSD there was no way to recover anything that wasn't backed up. Thankfully I had backed up all my Tradestation work just days before. Unfortunately I hadn't backed up any of my R programming (aka my isystems work) at all. So everything I had done since getting the new laptop was lost. At this time I was trying to focus more on qualifying for Kevin's Strategy Factory Club, and wasn't enamored about trying to recreate what I'd just lost, so isystems got put down prioritized. Then we had house guests for 3 months, and my laptop time was greatly reduced. I was still (unsuccessfully) focused on qualifying for Kevin's Strategy Factory Club so there was virtually no isystems work done at all.
Long Overdue Update
After three months off I'm revitalizing this effort. You'll probably think that this is due to the recent Stage 5 / isystems webinar but actually it's not. One of my school summer vacation projects (we finish very early here in Texas) is to teach my teenage daughter R and some data science (She's already done AP Statistics and Computer Science). I'm doing this by tackling the Kaggle "Titanic: Machine Learning from Disaster" Challenge something I found very entertaining when I did it a couple of years ago. Not surprisingly I found it very entertaining a second time showing it to her. It wasn't long before I pulled out my own 2 year old Titanic models. There wasn't much extra to do though and I didn't want to go back and rewrite everything.
After a quick project trying to calculate which 10 of the 18 US cities in the 2026 World Cup bid should host games, based upon geographical population*, I ended up pulling up my isystems work and here we are.
As you may recall I have a group of nested functions that I use to scrape the isystems website for system monthly performance data and then manipulate that data into a usable data set. This weekend I reviewed these functions, and made a couple of minor changes. I have now created a new updated data set with 15,498 rows each with 15 months of performance data with the intention of using the first 12 months as training data and the last 3 months as results data. (ie use the 12 months to predict the 3). The first step is what whether to include FDAX. Early isystems was very europe centric and has such there are not only a lot of FDAX systems but many of these systems have much longer histories than other systems. As such almost a third of my 15k data points are FDAX - why is this an issue - because the FDAX contract/margin size is 3 times the size of any other contract, hence it could distort everything.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
FDAX
Two charts to highlight the FDAX dilemma. The first shows the # of available systems as a function of average since tracked date and margin requirement. FDAX not only has the most systems, but also one of the longest average since tracked. As such when I create my data analysis table there are a lot more FDAX data points than anything else. The second chart shows this, specifically the number of data rows I have versus the required margin rate. There are systems currently available for 7 symbols that appear in chart one, that do not have enough data to be included in my data set and hence do not appear on chart2.
Hi , for some reason i cant see the charts. Also another post in this Forum got me thinking that when building a portfolio maybe the only thing You need to look for is the correlation of losing trades per month.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
That's really weird. On my laptop which I posted from last night I can see the charts perfectly, but if I log on with a different computer I can't see the charts either! Weird!
I think I saw the same post. Also something I know Kevin has discussed. If I ever get going again definitely something I will analyze.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Highlighting how difficult systems picking is
I have 15498 samples of data, with 15 consecutive months of since tracked, not backtest, data. For now I am keeping back the most recent data and using 13924 samples. If a system has a 50% chance of being profitable each month, then the probability of being profitable 12 months in a row is 0.5^12 which would equate to 3.4 of my 13924 samples. In fact I have 4! Maybe surprisingly all 4 of these lost money over the next 3 months! The distribution of winning months is as follows. With a mean of 5.31 and sd of 1.89 the distribution is skewed to the lowerside as we would expect 6 to be the largest bar.
The next chart shows average profitability over the first 12 months versus average over the next 3 months for all ~14k samples.
So it does have a slight upward leaning regression, but pretty random. 189 or just 1.4% of the samples made money in 75% or more of the 12 month periods. Here's what their chart looks like. Again not impressive. Historical results obviously not much of an indicator of future results.
did you guys take a look at the Google Trends systems on weekly GC, NQ and monthly GC, NQ? seems to be driven by big data and machine learning and working well
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Most of the Google trends are too new and don't have enough history to be in my database. The NQ monthly does look nice, amazing looking equity curve, but it's severely over-performing. Average profitable month in backtest is $2030, while since being tracked this has jumped to $4578, a 225% increase. In the backtest 8 of 158 months, or 5% made $5k or higher, since tracked this has jumped to 5 of 15 or 33%. Does look good though
With all kind of fancy charts and analyzing everything,the bottom line to me is has anybody been making money with this isystems. I would just pick a systema and put the minimum in play and see what happens .YOu can always bail out if the system does not produce an upward trend.
I going with an auto trading newsletter on Autoshares that trades Google, Netfles, Bidu Options. I ll start by just trading one contract to see how they do.
You can be like a math stats professor on this isystems and never make a cent.
