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I have used IG for several years as I grow my account. However, I will be investigating over the next couple months moving to full SPI. Leaning to wards IB and Ninja for charting...but need to investigate. Cheers,
The reason I picked my late entry signal at 10.35 was the 10am volume just wasn't there. The 10.05 and 10.10 volume bars were higher than the usual market open 10am bar. To me, this becomes a signal to delay my entry to my later set up (comparing the 10.25 bar to the 10.30 bar for a 10.30 entry).
We'll see how it goes.
Hi buddy,
I am a fellow SPI trader in Sydney. I am following your post's with interest. Well done on your strategy so far.
However, I hope you don't mind my making some minor observations -
The instrument you are trading is the FXCM cfd index product, it is not the real SPI futures contract. That is fine,
as you can trade smaller which is useful when testing etc but your analysis involves observing volume bars at the open. What I've observed, as I trade from the actual SPI futures AP U7-SFE contract, is the FXCM volume is wrong.
I will try to attach a chart, but the opening volume on a 5 min chart is closer to > 1000, not 200. Also, and perhaps because of this - your analysis above is inaccurate, the actual volume at 10:00 am was much higher than following bars. That would affect your decision making drastically. Anyway, I used to have a journal a few years ago, but my methods then were not working well enough and my money management poor. So I have taken a break, and getting back into things soon after much research etc
Look forward to sharing.....
Hi Zentrader. Thanks for the comments and following the journal. Yes, point taken. I have looked at the differences in volume between the CFD (i'm using IG) and the underlying SPI future. Most of my system looks at RELATIVE differences between the volume bars around market open. When I've looked at this in the past, the volume bar patterns did not differ too much between the CFD and the SPI. For simplicity, I've continued to use the CFD volume patterns which I currently have access to. Similarly, the target of +200 volume for the 9.50 5 min bar is arbitrary and does not reflect the actual SPI trade. To me it's a line in the sand on whether there are significant pre-market orders trying to get an early jump on things. I know that if I moved to direct usage of SPI volume data, I will need to adjust my stats on this. BTW, that's the plan. Cheers
We still have a ranging market sideways and expect movement with retracement days to continue for some time. Need to manage expectations on what the market will give in this environment
Market Entry (Short at 5719) at 10.35
So the entry had to wait for the 10.25 and 10.30 bar signals as the volume of my primary 10.05 and 10.10 bars were higher than the market open 10am 5 minute bar. Again, I should see a gradual decline in volumes after the 10am to set the tone for the day. This unusual volume pattern means i need to wait a bit to see how things are shaping up. A couple of dojis at the 10.15 and 10.20 bars marked some uncertainty after the prior to bars. The 10.25 and 10.30 then resumed the downwards movement. So the entry is a sell at 5719 (prior mistake to record this at 5723). I must admit given the general sideways ranging market, I am wary about a retracement now but have nonetheless set a 10 pt stop with a target of 5707 and a timed exit of 2.35pm AEST. I'll have to keep an eye on this trade with potential adjustments only if needed. The most likely is to fall back to my "take a ten point gain" if offered and I am uncertain about the rest of the session. Given the decline to now, it "feels" like I've missed the boat on the short going into the trade...however, I am following process and this is where my signal came in. Will see what happens next.
Market Exit at TP of 5707 for +12 points
Well that happened pretty quick. Exited at a pretty tight TP today of 5707. Per above, i missed much of the run to this level based on my signals....and it may continue to run further south..or not. That's ok by me. I'll take what i've given on move on with the rest of my day.
Well my predictions of a quiet range bound day yesterday like the prior few days were way off. I set a tight Target Price which was hit, but left plenty of points on the table from this. Today is another day. Given the large range yesterday, i'm expecting a more subdued day today. If the index moves south, i'm looking at around 5630 as a target area
Market Entry
Starting to think I should give up on the pre-market view
...price has shot up pre-market instead of playing out as a quiet range day. As the 9.50 volume bar was above 200 I am long at 5738 with an exit time today of 3pm and a stop of 16 points that may be adjusted through the day.
Closed at 5728 (-10 pts)
Closed the trade as it wasn't behaving as it should. Have actually put a speculative short at 5728 that I will have a tight stop on and a target of 5630
2nd trade (off script)
While this journal focuses on the 1 trade per day strategy...my one trade per day trade has been closed above. Will leave the speculative short trade on as it was confirmed by the 10.25 and 10.30 bars. Currently have stop at 7 pts and leaving the target of 5630 with a 2.35pm AEST timed exit.
Scratched this second trade as it retraced. So net net for the day is -10 points.
Lots of movement early in the sessions with retracements...expecting a "settler" day soon. Longer term view is if we can break the 5800 level, i would see a move above 5900 in the following week based on a triple tap pattern with fib ext.
Market Entry 10:15 AEST - Short 5763.5
Entered short on two sell bars at 10.05 and 10.10 with lower volumes than the 10.05. Have an extended price target of 5696 and a timed exit of 1:05. Stop is relatively tight at 10pts ...and will progressively tighten if I can.
Closed the trade -1 points
Probably shouldn't have taken this trade this morning as I was distracted on other things and didn't properly work through my process. As I realised this, I tightened my stop loss and then left my computer. Need to be more focused moving forwards.
Pre-market 5 minute sell bar hit the 200 volume level - right at the trigger for a 10am AEST trade with a close of 3pm and a target of 5672. Note, i have been placing the order about 20 seconds prior to 10am despite the 2 pt gap,
Closed at 5730 - 0 Points
Weekly Result
Overall all had +28 points for the week. Considered my performance to be "average" overall. Hopefully a better result for next week. Have a good one...
Early pre market volume signal at 9.50 bar resulted in an entry at market open short with a TP of 5657 or 3pm timed exit and stop of 10 points. Will be tight on moving my stop today.
No pre-market volume signal and my 10.05 and 10.10am bars showed no clear direction (based on a doji bar at 10.10). This means the entry signals falls back to 10.25 to 10.30 for a 10.35 entry. The engulfing 10.30 bar (vs the 10.25) means a long trade. Have kept a tighter stop on this of 10 points and a timed exit at 2.35pm and a TP of 5754.
Closed at 5738 for +15 points at the time exit of 2.35pm AEST
NOTE, I WILL NOT BE ENTERING TRADES TOMORROW OR THURSDAY DUE TO OTHER COMMITMENTS. BACK ON FRIDAY.
