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July contest journal -estimation trading


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July contest journal -estimation trading

  #41 (permalink)
 
rintin2x's Avatar
 rintin2x 
salt lake utah
 
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aquarian1 View Post
Yes funny thing this trading.

What you do think kept you in too long?

1. 2480 is being tested 3 days in a row here, and tested 3 times already just from this morning, if it wants higher, it will go with conviction and i would lose already for the day

2. right at the open it already starting to drop (actually it's been happening 4 days in a row). The 1st 5 minutes is my fav trading time (always work these days).

3. I'm just hard headed and hate being wrong and it can do some damage on the account when im in the wrong side and just to late to close the position for a smaller loss. But the plan today was to close the position when it reach the new high, which it didnt really....that was the PLAN lol, who knows i will follow it if it happened.

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
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rintin2x View Post
1. 2480 is being tested 3 days in a row here, and tested 3 times already just from this morning, if it wants higher, it will go with conviction and i would lose already for the day

2. right at the open it already starting to drop (actually it's been happening 4 days in a row). The 1st 5 minutes is my fav trading time (always work these days).

3. I'm just hard headed and hate being wrong and it can do some damage on the account when im in the wrong side and just to late to close the position for a smaller loss. But the plan today was to close the position when it reach the new high, which it didnt really....that was the PLAN lol, who knows i will follow it if it happened.

I hear you!

I think I was in a brain fog.

I had expected Tuesday to break at about the 2480 level. It didn't and Wedesday was also a cabbage day - NR garbage. I was getting so use to these garbage days I just fell asleep - like a toad in warm water.

It was a strong move up in the overnight coming into the open - I just figured they could push it up higher. Then it sat doing nothing for hours. I think the few pennies profit ($360 or so) and the end of the journal contest period I wanted to crank it up and squeeze out something.

I think I was thinking - well if they are going to do another chop-slop day I better go heavier to make anything. I just wasn't smart enough to switch gears and go short.
Oh well - live and learn (I hope

It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

They brought it back up to the 71 area, so it could be sideways, but if they follow form it might be a "down N" day about -11.25. I think it will all hinge on if the risk parity boys etc were shaken by today. I doubt they were.

Surprise move by the Chinese over the weekend?? and save a bloodbath for Monday??

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  #43 (permalink)
 
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 rintin2x 
salt lake utah
 
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How many time do you think the success rate of reversing a losing trade RIGHT AWAY and get a winner to cover the loss and made some out of it? Since trading live, i know for a fact it doesn't work for me (i'd say 80% failure rate) and actually making another loser from it. From only observation, ES tends to chop more than cl, zb, or zn. We probably just need to learn how to cut loser just a bit sooner, not too soon because impossible to eliminate risk. that's probably my no. 1 problem.

And I feel you about adding more contracts. Actually since yesterday I started going with 2 lot. And it really give me a lot more pressure. I can't imagine with 11...that's big player lol.

Another day like this or two and i think you will see easier sell the pop scenario than btfd scenario.

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  #44 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
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it looks like sideways action and up and down with the longest leg a down leg.
I should have sold > 2468.75 but missed that (now 9:09)
Perhaps try at trend line? (ellipse)

default est rng =12.75
my HL dif =15.75



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  #45 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
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9:52 AM 7/28/2017

Cleaning lady comes in 1/2 hour so if I don't get a trade soon I'll close out o/s orders and walk the dog.



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  #46 (permalink)
 
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 TraderTS 
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Hey,
I have a hard time sleeping last night because I didn't know what or how to say to cheer you up... I kept thinking when was the last time I got run over?
Don't get me wrong... I have done the exact same thing so many times that I lost count and I don't even remember how I was feeling. So write yours down, ok?
I am sure that one day soon... you would laugh thinking about it.

However, I remember exactly when was the first time I've avoid being run-over; it was Lunar New Year of 2016 with over 68 points drop!
I was so thankful that I've started to learn Harmonic Patterns and purchased lifetime license OFA-Auction Dashboard. Now, I cannot trade ES effectively without OFA.

I think yesterday was just "Window Breaking" T+3 Day that Mutual Fund Managers do to take profits and re-balance their portfolio at the end of month.
Monday and Tuesday could be "Window Dressing" for EOM-End of month and FDOM-First day of month... and now Gold rolled to new December contracts.
Guess what, 4pm EST MOC @2469 10.1K Bid ==>Smelling Trending Day Bulls attack?

TraderTS

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  #47 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
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rintin2x View Post
How many time do you think the success rate of reversing a losing trade RIGHT AWAY and get a winner to cover the loss and made some out of it? Since trading live, i know for a fact it doesn't work for me (i'd say 80% failure rate) and actually making another loser from it.

Yes, I agree most of the time you will have two losers instead of one, for as you say. ES chops - especially lately.

I think Gann's rules come into play on this question:
1. If in doubt stay out.
2. In in and in doubt get out.
3. Set a stop where you would you would reverse.

If you had convincing reasons to be long did it change so you have convincing reasons to be short?

So really yesterday's trade did not have convincing reasons to be in - so that foolishness was only a push for the close of the contest. Think about it you have a flat trendless market with the vix a a very low level (9 I think). That sums up to don't trade.

This a 5 min chart - notice the interweaving MA. This a poster-child of trendlless.


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  #48 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
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TraderTS View Post

Hey,
I have a hard time sleeping last night because I didn't know what or how to say to cheer you up..

Thanks.

I wouldn't lose sleep over it. I'm more resilient than that. I have pretty much forgotten about it now. 24 hours later.

  1. It was sim.
  2. I wasn't following my rules.
  3. It was way too heavy.
  4. I could have easily close out at +365 for the day.
  5. I had forgotten my own notes.
  6. I was very tired - several bad sleeps.

I could go on but really I haven't traded my own rules for the journal contest.
How can one have a journal:
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
NR - no trades - chop/slop
day after day..
for a contest?


Lots of people have pretty charts and complex graphs signifying nothing but looking very complex and therefore sophisticated.
Then they include nice photos and colorful graphics



At this time the top 3 are something like
39
33
28
I'm at 23.

I was thinking about it and I realized that perhaps this is a blessing.

I an VERY short of time. Winning a combine is $375 and then you have to pass that and then the funding prep and then earn money before you will see a check. That can be a long while.

(It could be that the Great Omnipresent Divinity knows what is best for me. It could be that focusing on what I have and moving my account payoff is the best route for me.)

Back to work!!!
7:59 PM 7/28/2017
Yes I'm working on Friday night while others are having over friends for beer and barbee.

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Last Updated on July 28, 2017


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