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July contest journal -estimation trading


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July contest journal -estimation trading

  #11 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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9:44 AM 7/14/2017

Today I got up late.
Here were the choices for FP
2447.25
2448
2449.25

The actual was
2450@8:46 (at this time)

my executions have been



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  #12 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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10:12 AM 7/14/2017

I added one at 2450 (one tick off the 2450.25) so good trade, and I have an order to sell one at 2447.50, which will bring me back to 3.
Cleaning lady comes today - a major bother - so I'm not sure about leaving things on or closing out.
Probably close out.

10:28 AM 7/14/2017
order to close 2 at 2448.25 and then OCO for last two 2453.75 and 2440.75

12:09 PM 7/14/2017
opps trade error on OCO now short 5 - eee gads!

1:31 PM 7/14/2017
well its a bloodbath
I killed 2 to stem the bloodloss.
2451 avg price i'm -900 on the open 3
and -875 ac perf
= - 1775
I've put an OCA (i hope) at 2462.75 (which would be 1762.50 +875=2637.50)
and 2450.75
taking a nap

woke up and closed it out
loss $1587.50



6:36 PM 7/14/2017
Too bad I didn't close our when the cleaning lady came in!! -lol :-)
------


Lessons:
1. Never leave a trade open when walking the dog.
2. Don't let little losses turn to big ones.
3. Don't trade Friday - especially with a late start



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  #13 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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9:34 AM 7/17/2017

very tired
a real struggle to get up
once I got my numbers there was that deep groan - cabbage day again

So I am expecting narrow slop chop.
This is a back-to-bed day for ES.

H/L est
2462.75
2450.50
=12.25 dif

default Range est 14.00
my rng est less than 12 so perhaps = 10.75

The difficult part for me is all the work still needs to be done even for garbage days like this.

I might as well struggle and find a little something and then take a nap

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  #14 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Very tired today.
bad dreams last night and woke at 4am and couldn't get back to sleep

Price open at the low end and too near the estimated low to bother with.

Estimates are good but that doesn't make the day worth trading

11:42 AM 7/18/2017

High Est= 2456.50
Actual High= 2456.00
Dif= 0.50

Low Est = 2446.25
Actual Low 2448.00
Dif= -1.75

No trades


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  #15 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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-------- Wednesday 9:08 AM 7/19/2017 ---------
got up late. then I messed around with something I noticed on prices and when I updated my Emini sheet I found some wrong numbers
I figured out that I had messed up on my transfer file in last mights update (Tuesday numbers from a week ago) which meant closing the spreadsheets down getting the correct transfer numbers and reloading. As I result I missed buying at open.

I put in a rushed trade for 1 just in case it turned down quickly at 63.50 so at least I'd have one and then put in an order for two at 66.25 - where all 3 shorts should have been. This was a great fill to the tick. I put in a close of the 63.50 at 63.50 and it has closed leaving me short two.



9:18 AM 7/19/2017
The first setup - buy at open would have been nice - 5pts and 3 contracts or $750 - but missed it. Now is a question of playing the short. This isn't a slam dunk and default Range est=8.25 - rather pathetic. I have gone to H/L est 2466.25 to 2453.5 =12.75 H/L dif. It's rather stretching it, put it doesn't feel like a 8.25 day. We had strong housing numbers and oil will be coming out soon - which should be good for some volatility.

I'm really trying to make the market do what I want, though frankly this narrow range dip buying is getting to be a boring slog. (another rng est shows 6pts - if that's the case the bulk of the day has happened.


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  #16 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
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11:47 AM 7/19/2017

Going out to walk the dog


12:28 PM 7/19/2017
back
price moved up to 2468.25 @12:12

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  #17 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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stopped out
loss -$725

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  #18 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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----- Thursday 9:07 AM 7/20/2017
Default rng est =9
HL dif 10

looks like another cabbage day
wouldn't trade it except for the sim
it's after 9am and the range is 3.50
what a joke.
They can start to run it any way they like - whenever they like - pur coin toss
FWIW
H/L est
2478.50
2468.50
dir =-1

waiting for NT to reload - it botched the first try - LOL


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  #19 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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July 20 lessons
1. never trade exhausted
2. never trade in a rush in the morning
3. never trade against your own signals (if its dir=-1 then trade down)
4. don't try to make a garbage day into a winner - go back to bed
5. don't trade against your own rules (never less than 12pts)
6. never use the reverse button
July 20 -loss -$1150

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  #20 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Friday July 21
9:10 AM 7/21/2017

The graph below shows some of the information that is given before the opening and then a chart at 9:08am
You can see that the price has fallen from the FP 67.50 down to 2462.75
2462.75 was are estimated low found equal to our low stop run estimate.
The default Range est= 10.25 and our H/L dif=8.50, and the 8:35est = 6.00
Being Friday we would tend towards a narrow choppy mess aka "cabbage"

You can quickly see:
1. I must be up on time - which I wasn't
2. Be ready with my order (betweeen 2467.00 2470.50 =est first Pt)
3. with a time about 08:39
4. to sell (first leg est= -1)
5. with a traget of 2462.75 (est LOD)
6. at which point I would close or CAR (depending on bottoming indicators)

As the default range est in below the threshold of 12pts minimum we have: NR-no trading.


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Last Updated on July 28, 2017


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