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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together


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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together

  #31 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

The previous trade I took as a clear indication that the LVN was rejected and Initiation had started.
This trade was a play for range extension upward.

There was a micro profile showing VAL where I entered. But to be honest I had the channel drawn because it was such a clear channel with what looked like 50% relevance with so many touching points.
So I anticipated that the 50% line would hold and it roughly lined up with the VAL.
This was Also at a high volume level from the longer term profile to the left, but that's not really what I'm doing here. I'm trying to trade from a LVN rejection, (the previous stopped long trade) to another LVN above the entry price.

The channel seemed reasonable to me and I could get a stop behind the next HVN just 2.75 points away.
Stop held and market rallied.
My 200% symm target was already respected by the recent high, so my target was the 261.8% level from my entry which was, at the time, all I had to go on.

But the market Did pull back within Value and Did show me where the true Initiation point was, actually a few points higher.
Price traded to my 20.75 point target, but did Not FILL an exit.
It backed off, and since it was a 2.618 growth mode limit, and I didn't realize it was from the wrong initiation point at the time, I panicked and took it off at 18.25 ticks.
I rate myself a 6 of 10 on this trade for doing this because I remember feeling FOLMOTT.

Had I followed my Fib modeling methods correctly, I would have seen that the Initiation point had moved higher and held for the 22.00 point target at 200% symmetry. That's not the orthodox high, but it is the VPOC for the next structure. Actually, another clue that this market would keep continuing, but that's the next trade.

So left 1.75 points on the table.

So this trade closed with +18.25 points, a nice contrast to my previous 2 days of trading with about 15 losses in a row.
I was really confident in this trade. Even though the first trade of the day was a loss and a total panic move I felt good about this one because of how everything from the LVN to the Channel and oscillator came together to show me a picture. Patience and I can hit trades like this.

As an aside, after the close of the day, I put on the -50% channel line and it models the exact orthodox top.
Kind of amazing in hindsight.

I've used these channel techniques before and they work well. So I will likely continue to lean on them when they apply into the future. In this case, the obvious contained channel was so clear that it was good application. I guess the trick is to not overuse the channelling because I've been guilty of that before.

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  #32 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

After the last trade I redid the Fib analysis and decided that the 200% symm level was still way up there and that it was possible to get there. In hindsight, damn it sure was, and then some.

What I failed to do was profile the entire rally so far this morning and then see the developing volume to give myself more confidence.

I put the long on and it worked.
But I wasn't all that happy with the entry because I tried with 2 orders to get filled at the lows of the VA where the Green Diamond marker is. The market did not fill me and I may have felt some FOMO or revenge. But I was logical and calm and thought about my risk and what the market would have to look like at my VAH rejection level.

But then it stalled at the Micro 261.8 extension. Then the major timeframe popped into my head and I flipped over to the Major timeframe chart from this morning and we were right at the 93.73 void pocket level of anticipated resistance.
So when the market rallied a few ticks I took it off for a small profit.

+3.00 points / 12 ticks / $60 for this trade.
But had I followed my current timeframe analysis AND profiled the entire morning rally I would've had to put probabilities on a volume building continuation upward for 18.00 points.

So I left 15.00 points or $300 on the table. The higher timeframe LVN scared me out of the trade prematurely. I failed to read the developing volume profile that was increasing with higher prices in the 2nd picture below.
I was feeling good from the last trade and didn't want to add a loss to the day.

I rate myself a 4 of 10 on this trade because I failed to do the AMT analysis to manage the trade for continuation and failed to track the possible proportional growth and symmetry outcomes.



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  #33 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38


Major timeframe profile showed that the rally has moved out of the much larger value area.
I identified a LVN resting just above the major timeframe VAH at the Pink oval.
When I got to the computer the market had already tested it and just poked the bubble.

The intermediate profile showed that a possible larger value area was building that straddled the major timeframe profile.
The intermediate profile still had a deep LVN pocket within major VA, but that was tested 2x and held.
My immediate thought was that the current LVN would hold and minor timeframe longs were a good probability.
The TPO profile was much smoother and revealed the same pocket being defended as support. So I was looking for rejection of the major VA.

I didn't really have a plan for anything after that, and that was my downfall today. Failure to look more than 1 step ahead or failure to continue reevaluate the major timeframe analysis throughout the day.

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  #34 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I was trying to enter long at the Orange oval, but the market didn't want to come down for a double bottom.
I was betting that the LVN would provide support from the higher timeframe. It was a pretty sharp volume cliff.
I did check the oscillator and it was converging with what price was advertising - up and up.

My second attempt is the entry chart marker shown, captured in real time.
The volume profile was building a P shape, volume is acceptance.
I identified a micro LVN void from the opposing decline that I thought he market could find support on.
I was prepared to long again back at next LVN below it again. 2 bites at the apple.
Stop was based on the VA below it Not accepting price back, so just where the Vol curve begins to fatten up.



I took profit at a 200% symmetry from the preceding initiative move.
What I did wrong was not recognize the Minus development in the profile that happened during the rally into my target.
Minus development is good. It creates a balloon of unfair prices between entry and continuation.
I failed to recognize it and put odds on continuation.
This is what I failed to see as the profile was developing. There's no way to know if volume will build, but the minus development was clear and I could've moved stop behind the LVN lower edge instead and measured a larger symm target.



The trade ended up building substantial volume (for this micro timeframe and continuing to yet another VPOC containing VA.
So 2 balance area excursions from my entry and escaping the intermediate VA.
So bad read on that one for continuation.
In thinking about it, I just wanted to book the win.
I've had so many mornings of just loss after loss that I just wanted to book a win and I wasn't paying attention to monitor for continuation as I am supposed to with AMT.
This is bad because the price acceptance volume profiling is the exact strength of what volume profiling provides - confirmation that minus development occurred, where it occurred, and if volume is building at range extension indicating continuation of trend.

It's good that I'm journaling this because I didn't actually catch what I could've done better until just now.


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  #35 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I watched the minor timeframe VPOC develop and thought it might rotate downward.
I was going to short the peak behind the chart marker, but I actually checked the oscillator and I did not have permission because of no divergence.
I shorted against VPOC because the orthodox high was less than 4.00 points away.

My initial target was a thought that the upper 2 bell curves were double distributions in the same VA, so they could conjoin together.
It's actually the same picture as the conclusion of the last trade - captured real time.



The trade concluded with me choking up on the target.
I was watching the oscillator and it didn't lunge down and break the Zero line.
Price was testing the LVN and technically the small rotation was done. I had 2:1 on the trade and I took profit.
I had FOLMOTT , but the oscillator and price and profile supported the decision.
I reasoned that if price were to get down into the lower VA, I could always short again below the upper LVN.

In practice, I was patting myself on the back and tired so I walked away from the computer to say goodbye to my son as he went off to summer day camp.
So I didn't re-short.
But yay, 2 profitable trades in the morning.
And I should've stopped here for the day - oh boy I should've stopped.


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  #36 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

This next trade was an accident.
I had a resting order at the 2nd LVN down and I forgot about it.
It ended up costing 2x my max trade risk. And was the catalyst for me falling apart the rest of the day.

-9.00 points on a max risk of 5.00 points
I forgot to calculate and place a sell stop order. It happened so fast that's all I could do to react.

The order was a play on rejection of the unfair prices in the 2nd LVN down from the highs.
What I Failed to see, even from the rally beforehand was that the higher intermediate timeframe profile value area VAH was well above where I planned to enter.
So an entry where I had the order was contrary to AMT, which says that if price accepts back into the larger VA, then it can see the VPOC and maybe the VAL.

What I should have noticed was that price was respecting the VAH of the intermediate timeframe and auctioning back into it, if not through it.
Price went all the way through the VA, and made a near symmetric move below the VAL as it had made above the VAH.
I've seen this quite often - as markets do seem to self organize into a Bell curve, so symmetry above and below the VA is logical.
The Daily low was right at the a previous VA VPOC shown with Pink arrow.
Again, another phenomenon I've seen - to auction in a straight line to a previous VPOC and stop on a dime.
This is where the market knew it could find traders willing to transact, so it went there.


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  #37 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

Playing for a rejection from VA of the intermediate timeframe VAL.
Scratched the trade for 0.0 points.

Next was another short a bit higher as a play to reject the Pink oval LVN.
Didn't work, stopped out for -2.75 points.

What I failed to see in these 2 trades was that price had traded back INTO value.
I thought the first trade might work, but when it didn't initiate immediately after down, I scratched it.

The 2nd trade was failure to realize that price was back into value.
So I should've been looking for longs against the VALow.


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  #38 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

The next 2 longs were waaaaaay into the VA, not being patient go long against the VALow.
Just dumb impulse revenge trading.
Looking at the tiniest micro LVN's from the most recent rally.
Ignoring the Intermediate timeframe VA and the position of price.

I drew the channel in there after the day was done to see how I could've done better.
This is Kennedy channeling KCT and it identifies an Expanding Flat pattern.
Here that pattern lines up at the lower edge of an LVN and touching a sharp shelf of a previous value area down low for the 3rd and 4th trades on the chart.

So taking it as an Exp Flat and drawing a channel just worked, and it also was a retest of a previous VA VPOC low.
I didn't see this at the time, but going forward I'm going to have to draw channels and line them up with profile logic because I think that's what seems to work.

So everything I made in the morning 2 trades was erased in the afternoon.
Aggressive revenge and impulse trading.
I'm going to have to learn to see in the intermediate timeframe and then execute only on that.
So far, I'm not having much luck with AMT.
A lot has to do with how you interpret the larger degree and smaller degree profiles.
It's as subjective as Elliott wave.
I'm feeling dejected right now as I can't seem to pick the winners, but they seem so clear with the profiles after the fact.
How the hell do the other profile traders mix and match all the different profile timeframes together and then come up with a trading idea?
I'm going to keep going, but have this feeling that I"m doing something wrong.
Missing some key concept to AMT that would have me waiting and on the right side more often.
My percentage win rate is abysmal. Like 5%.
And yet after 7 days of trading the sim account is flat.


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  #39 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I must've typod the post above from 07 11, but titled it 07 12. I can't change it.

I'm doing this post on 07 13 because the journaling is actually too difficult to do during the day.
Although I do see some benefit to trying to do it real time.

Price made a huge move overnight.
Left a deep and wide LVN in the Red box.
Price seems to have tried to get into that Red box, but not succeeding.
It's a tipping point. Longs above the red box, shorts below the upper edge of it.

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  #40 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38



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