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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together


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Specializing in the NQ with AMT - putting it together

  #21 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
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The final idiot trade of the day was of a composite profile, which never makes sense because the volume distribution is all messed up. There's a giant node at the bottom that just throws all the whole calculation off.
I saw the market was reacting to that level and I thought, stupidly, without consulting the oscillator or anything else,
that somehow a 3rd triple bottom touch of a VAL level would hold!!!

In what universe has that ever happened?

-2.00

I gave up after this. That was 10 losses in a row today.
Simply incredible the damage that revenge trading and FOMO can do.
Tomorrow is another shot to train myself.
I think today's journaling is actually helping me to consider what I missed and what I keep missing and doing wrong.
We shall see.



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  #22 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I'm writing these July 7 journals on Sunday July 9 because I was upset at how the day went.
I had every intention of trading with the probabilities, reading profiles, oscillator positions, but somehow my plans didn't go out the window, but they totally did not put me and keep me on the right side of things.
I've got a long way to go and I think I'm missing some key points to AMT that I don't understand.

Major morning NQ chart clearly showed that there was support at the previous Chicago close. Rotation back up and into the VA.

Expectation is that things keep rotating all the way back up the major VAH near 74.25.
So the daily plan was
Long trades until 74.25, then reevaluate if value has shifted.

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  #23 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38


First Long attempt based on strict rejection of the previous VA.

Identified the unit, clear range extension and development and VA in Grey.
First pullback bounced off a LVN and did not continue.
Anticipating rejection off previous VA.
Risk is -2.75 points at Lower edge behind / just below next HVN.



The trade ended up stopping out, reaching down into the middle of the next LVN at the Green oval.
The VA actually shifted UP as soon as I was filled. That is the VAH shifted up on calculation.

So I think this may be not reading the profile and anticipating correctly.
What I could have done better was to recognize that the VPOC of the rally was still lower and that it was acting as a magnet.
Then to anticipate that the area around the VPOC was already developed and that the market was probably trying to conjoin these 2 HVN areas together within the same VA.
So a touch of VPOC, or a more aggressive long at the Green oval actual bottom.
I entered too early.

So there's luck, probability and psychology involved, but actually understanding the analysis is a large part of it.
On this trade I think I didn't have the analysis right. Had it twisted around.

I need to remember that within a VA it's enter at the LVN, then take profits into a HVN.
I was entering at the edge of an HVN and stopping out at the opposite edge of another lower HVN.
That's backward logic because AMT expects market price to advertise and be efficient within previous HV areas, then reject off of unfair LV price levels.

So actually writing that after the fact with a calm head makes sense to me now.
I should have gone long into the LVN, with a stop behind the VPOC.

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  #24 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

It wouldn't allow me to attach a 2nd picture.
So I'll just keep attaching until I get it right.
I'm quickly seeing why a lot of journals start and then just stop. The software for journaling is not very forgiving and its clumsy.

So here goes again. Attached picture of what I tried to post before with a shift in value as time progressed. Shift is UP. The VA moved up and conjoined the upper HV area.


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  #25 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I remember hearing in my head, "One of the mistakes new AMT traders make is not taking the Cheap Trade." That is a double top or bottom for a rotation back into value.

That's what I did. I shorted a VAhigh for a rotation back into value as VPOC was not tested.

And it stopped out for -3.5 points.
I got really frustrated after this one and the rest of the day went to shit.
The order was placed AT VAH at the time. Not sure if it just slipped higher or if value calculated a bit lower after the ticks came in.

I had missed the rally off the LVN that stopped short of VPOC.
Now I take another loss on what's supposed to be a high probability trade.
Just great.

I do think this was a revenge trade.
Just throwing something out there blindly to see if it would work.
I'm not entirely sure what I did wrong on this one though.
I was looking for rotation back down. The oscillator was Maybe bouncing off of the Zero line? I'm positive that I missed that bit of info.


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  #26 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

I was not thinking straight on these next 2 trades and in retrospect it shows.

I went very aggressively after a continuation, trying to read the smallest possible profile in the picture.
I bought the pico timeframe VALow and it stopped out immediately.
-2.50 points

I didn't even look at the higher timeframe profile to the left.
I was revenge trading for sure.
The next LVN was clearly back down in that 35.50 area and I was not waiting.
That's FOMO.

The 2nd trade was a total bonehead trade.
It was an entry AT a HVN which is backward logic in terms of AMT.
Prices will more often reject an unfair price, not a fair price.

So 2nd trade is just way off in left field. The LVN was at 36.50 and had I waited to enter there, with PATIENCE, I would've gotten the turn and the rally.

But I didn't and that's why I need to journal this stuff... to figure out what I'm doing wrong.
That's 2x today that I entered at the HVN.
I need to enter at the LVNs within a wider VA. Longs above VPOC or at VPOC.
Shorts below VPOC or at VPOC.


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  #27 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

Final attempt for the day was for a counter trend short rotate back into value.
It didn't work out.
I exited for +1.25 points, so the only positive trade for the day.
It was supposed to initiate back into the VAL, but didn't show signs of initiation in the short timeframe, so I exited luckily.

This is a case of trying to take a double top "cheap trade" (John Hoagland).
This is 2x today that this trade failed, so I'm probably doing something entirely wrong.
This is kinda scary and I don't think I'll do this again because it goes against AMT theory that higher volume in the profile is acceptance.
And it's like trying to pick a top because the volume profile says higher prices are being accepted, but I'm shorting into it just because of price structure.
That's price structure trading, not profile trading.

Price went all the way up to the EXACT VAH from the morning Major timeframe analysis.
Then backed off into the close.
For the day I completely FAILED to get in long with controlled risk and capture ANY of the initiative long range extensions that I planned in the morning.
FAILURE of a day.
It makes me question whether I can actually do this.
Even writing this 2 days later sitting in a library rec room watching my son play YuGiOh cards I'm feeling pretty demoralized.


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  #28 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

Woke up this morning and here is the picture I saw on the major timeframe.

Forming a sideways structure on the entire curve structure to the left right at the VAH.
In the rally profile it's building a very healthy amount of volume.
Volume is acceptance so Bull continuation until price proves otherwise with a penetration of the lower curve area in orange.
Deep rather wide volume pocket around the 650.0 level. A good LVN to hunt for a long.
So the plan is long trades from the LVN at 50.0 to a breakout above the VAH for a potential large move to the next LVN at the 93.00 level.

Let's see what the Minor timeframe says.


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  #29 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38

A bit late to this one and the FOMO and twitchy panic shows.

Drew the Rally profile to look for the pocket.
Drew the LVN pocket on my screen.
Kind of wide, but the profile thins out they has a tiny little high volume spike in there.
I had the idea to go long into that tiny spike at 50.0, but I panicked and went long above it because it looked like the market may have already made a bottom.

Bad move. I ended up exceeding my risk and stopped out ON THE EXACT LOW I was looking to enter Long at.

That's -3.50 points / 14 ticks / -$70

for FOMO and lack of patience.
It all happened very fast. Too fast to realize what hit me.
I was mad at myself immediately after.
This is an error in timing preparation. It's waking up too late, getting ready too late, and being late to the computer.
I currently struggle with this, and have for years actually.
Living in a time zone 3 hours behind is not an easy obstacle for me to overcome.
If I want this bad enough, I'll change.
I think I just haven't pushed myself hard enough to see results to where I want it badly enough at a subconscious level.

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  #30 (permalink)
cpuz
Phoenix, AZ
 
Posts: 67 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 38


It's good to get the bad trades out of the way early in the day I guess.


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