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a bit of both I guess, just didn't wait for proper set-ups when I was down and just wanted to make it back as quickly as I could. Hence, entries were a bit shit...plus should've stopped earlier but well tomorrow is a new day.
I guess, this was my worst day so far as I didn't really stick to my usual rules and didn't trade very rational. I got very annoyed after my 5-6th trade when I had a great entry but then was stopped out due to my ATM and BE stop and then it just dropped like 40T....So after this move I then shorted again but I didn't wait for a proper set-up and there weren't any good resistance levels so I was just hoping and trading what I saw on the chart.
Also I tried to go short too many times near the even $47 level and of course with good inventory data the trend will be up as the draw was pretty good and very bullish!
So overall pretty annoyed at myself for breaking my rules set and having to post that here...
Ok, I just finished looking at all my winning and BE trades, of these 100 trades, 66 were winners or scratch trades.
So I did a comparison what if I would have entered these trades either with an automatic BE stop and different profit triggers or without an BE stop - either target or stop hit. I didn't check with an auto trailing stop as my current setting was trailing 3T behind the current price. I have realized that this setting isn't really working as I need to give it at least 5-7T to "breath".
Here are the results:
I used my trades with the auto +4T to +1T BE stop as a reference and made about 219T so far. Then I checked on how many occasions the target would be hit (+10T) and even checked bigger targets from +15 up to 60T with 5T increments.
The highest target hit rate was 79% if I don't use a BE stop and this would have given me 14 more stop-outs but also a larger net gain of $+770. On the other hand a BE stop with triggers at 4,5 & 6T doesn't really change anything and it only becomes more profitable if the stop is only moved above 7T.
The other thing is if my targets were greater than just 10T i.e. 15T or 20T, then my net gain would be >$2k higher with the highest additional net gain $+2340 if waiting for a 20T target!!! Also this would give a risk-reward ratio of 20-8 --> 2.5 : 1. The hit rate would be 48% on these 66 trades which is pretty good.
I have to think what will work better for me, either I scalp for 4-5T and book the profit and do it many times a day or just wait for larger targets.
But over the long run, bigger targets and a better risk-reward ratio will help as you don't have to be right all the time. With scalping I would need 2 winners to make up for a bad trade which doesn't really work out.
